Simon, do we have a problem with the MCG?

[deelusions from afar 1,776]

This is something I've followed for a while.  I thought it was a problem in previous years but the way we got it together last year at Optus (a ground with MCG like dimensions) made me think it's no longer an issue. 

But here's our record for 2021 and 2022 (so far).  37 games total.

At the MCG, 19 games.  14W, 4L and 1D  (74% win rate or 78% non loss rate)

Away from the MCG, 18 games, 16W and 2L (89% win rate).

The two non MCG losses have been the pies at the SCG in Buckley's last game and the Crows in Adelaide last year when we got stooged.

 

However I think it's more than just win/ loss that is relevant as most of our worst performances which we have still won have happened at the MCG:

At the MCG, 19 games, our average score is 82.9 and the average opponent score is 65.5 for an average margin of +17.2.

Away from the MCG, 18 games, our average score is 95.8 and the average opponent score is 61.8 for an average margin of +34.

 

I'm not by any means suggesting this is why we've lost our last two games.  But I do think we don't get any advantage at the MCG which is a problem when we play 1/2 our games (and this year finals) there.

 

[Kozzie4PM 765]

Interesting. I definitely felt like we were better away from the G in 2017 and 2018. Ironically we love docklands these days. 

[titan_uranus 24,964]

Isn't Optus Stadium a very similar size to the MCG?

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,686]

I haven't done any analysis, but is it possible that we player better opponents at the MCG?

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,722]

I don’t think we would’ve won the flag last year if the finals were at the G, if our form there was a strong guide.

In the second half of the year we had poor/average wins over Essendon and Adelaide, somehow drew against lowly Hawthorn and got done against the Dogs and were extremely poor against the underdog GWS.

Meanwhile our best regular season wins were against the Dogs, Brisbane, Geelong,l and Port - all away from the G.

I think there’s something in this, given we’ve dropped our 2 biggest tests of the year at the home of footy.

[Little Goffy 14,434]

My gut feeling agrees.

I've having a looking now at who we've played when.

Thoughts;

This season we've already played 8 games at the 'G. There's no denying that while we were getting the job done we weren't blowing teams away very often. Our two games against opponents in disarray, the Eagles and Kangaroos, were both away from the G, while our two games where we were messed around by disruptions etc were at the G.

There may also be an element of coincidental timing - our run to the premiership last year coincided with our forward line getting organised, With Ben Brown and Bailey Fritsch combing for five and a half goals per game in the period after the loss to the Bulldogs in rnd 19, and Pickett adding almost two a game as well. In that period we only played once at the MCG, which was a solid 41 point win.

In contrast, our mid-season slump last year (taken as the six games from the loss to Collingwood until the loss against the Dogs) coincided with a large chunk of MCG time. 4 of those 6 games were at the 'G, out of the season total 11 of 25.

Outside that slump period in 2021 we only lost one game, by one point, and due to an umpiring error!

So, I'm not too worried about the MCG, though I'd prefer if I was 'actively enthusiastic' about our presence at the 'G.

 

What DOES have me worried is the Longmuir family.

Since September 2020, half of all losses by the Melbourne Demons have been to a Longmuir.

[Demonstone 22,271]

29 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Since September 2020, half of all losses by the Melbourne Demons have been to a Longmuir.

Wot?

[Little Goffy 14,434]

2 hours ago, Demonstone said:

Wot?

The Cairns disaster games which cost us finals in 2020 were against Sydney and Fremantle.

Our two losses in the last couple of weeks were also, of course, Sydney and Fremantle.

Those four losses to Longmuir-coached clubs account for one half of all our losses since September 2020.

Does anyone else want to help with a GOFUNDME for a special Longmuir family vacation? I'm thinking a month-long cruise of the Norwegian Fjords, starting at about the end of August.

[Demonstone 22,271]

I think you may be mixing up Longmuir and Longmire.  

[DeeZone 9,624]

Same result.!!

[Big Col 1,347]

...our record against Ben and Brett from the Ratten family is pretty good though? Or was that the Rutten family? I get confused...

[Little Goffy 14,434]

On 6/6/2022 at 9:09 PM, Demonstone said:

I think you may be mixing up Longmuir and Longmire.  

One coached Fleamantle and the other Sidanhee.

Even though I was just having a laugh, I may still have to ban myself from posting for a few days, there isn't a forehead-slap gif powerful enough.

Jebus Chroist's extruded colon. I've spent at least a decade thinking they were brothers.

[In Harmes Way 7,735]

Maybe our boys come out galvanised and focussed in enemy territory and play closer to a 4 quarter game, whereas at the G on a cold day with a small crowd our boys don’t get the same level of motivation. 
 

I think the Optus vs MCG comparison shows a difference in performance is not related to the size of the ground.