What I've Learned from David King*

[Gorgoroth 13,220]

@John Demonic

Without Bruce, Naughton is the main threat. Force him wide and I’ll back Lever or May or even Petty to negate him to a degree. If we are on our game the ball doesn’t get to him fast or clean.

Thats where the difference will lie.

[adonski 13,267]

1 hour ago, binman said:

One of the stranger narratives all year from footy media types when talking about our games against other contenders is how we are going to deal with their strengths.  

It is always acknowledged how great our defensive system is, and of course the individual skill of Gawn, Tracc and Oliver is highlighted.

But it's almost as if they think our incredibly effective midfield and forward line systems are second rate compared to other contenders.

Pre round 11 it was all about how we are going to deal with the devastating midfield and clearance game of the dogs. 

How will we combat the four headed forward line monster of (insert one of the Lions, Cats and Dogs here)?

Goody must love the fact that our forward line is hardly ever talked about as a threat that needs to be quelled.

In the six games we have won since the loss to the dogs in round 19 we have averaged 100.5 points per game. That is padded a bit by the fact we toweled up the Suns and the Crows. But three were against top 4 teams - Cats x 2 and the Lions

In the seven games the dogs have played in that same period they have averaged 81.5 points per game. 

We are far away the most potent team in the AFL in the last two months of football, but yet we have to worry about Naughton? Go figure.

The media get sucked into a centrepiece type of player i.e Naughton 

It's understandable, Naughton's best is highlight package stuff, but our forward line is objectively stronger

We have 5 players who have kicked 20+ goals this season

Dogs only have 4, one of which is Bruce who is out. Of their remaining 3, one isn't even a forward - the Bont!

[Ted Lasso 19,586]

Gawn will no doubt get back and guard the danagerous space as well, if Naughton takes a crazy pack mark you just have to cop it but we have to make that the only way he's getting a set shot on goal.  English will plonk himself at the top of the goalsquare and that's easy enough to defend if we keep the pressure on and force high kicks in. 

Weightman is a worry but with any luck our team defense can keep him under control. 

[Mickey 4,777]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

The media get sucked into a centrepiece type of player i.e Naughton 

It's understandable, Naughton's best is highlight package stuff, but our forward line is objectively stronger

We have 5 players who have kicked 20+ goals this season

Dogs only have 4, one of which is Bruce who is out. Of their remaining 3, one isn't even a forward - the Bont!

It was interesting that someone (maybe Barrett) said Bont will beat Trac in the brownlow due to the goals he kicks... he's kicked one more!

[Demon17 5,262]

7 hours ago, jacey said:

Interesting that Ross Lyon last week said Scott would review the Rd 23 tape where they were 44pts in front, fix a few things and cats will get it done. 

This week, Ross Lyon, Beveridge made the necessary changes in Rd 19 to win, they'll review that again and with the week off, the dogs will get it done. 

That was an amzing statement on Footy CLassifed by Ross last week. From someone of his calibre. His stocks aren't really rising at the minute

Yet the bleeding obvious was what actually happened.   Lloydy stuck with the Dees nevertheless in that exchange.  

[Garbo 1,567]

Media love to talk up the underdogs and how they can win, it’s simply less entertaining to talk up the favourite. The neutral supporter needs to think the game is 50/50 despite what reality says. The same reason they won’t call a game as over even if a side statistically is 95% a sure thing. 

[Little Goffy 14,963]

6 hours ago, adonski said:

Haven't you heard Schache is the next big thing?

Reminds me of the traditional Brazillian joke; "Brazil is the next big economic power and has been for 50 years."

[Axis of Bob 11,945]

King is looking at the Schache/Aliir thing as being what won them the game. It wasn't .... it was simply a sideshow. The Bulldogs won the first quarter with +22 contested possessions and that was the whole game done. They won based on contested possession, not by negating Port's intercept game. There were one or two times that worked for them, but Aliir still had 11 intercept possessions because Schache isn't a very good player. 

The difference is that, whilst Port have an excellent interceptor (as do we), we have many excellent interceptors and a midfield whose key strength is defensive pressure. If they want to push forwards to defend against Lever, then we'll just have the AA Full Back do the intercepting (who is arguably an even better player), Petty or even the AA ruck to do the job instead. Plus the ball is unlikely to come in so easily because Port were so woeful in the midfield that Jakovich and McIntosh couldn't have saved them. That simply hasn't happened against us, and I'd bet against it magically starting next week.

David King knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. He can be given as many stats as possible but he simply doesn't have the wherewithal to use them properly. The Port game was one team that was ready to play a high paced, contested game of football versus another team that looked genuinely afraid. The rest of it was just window dressing.

We had to win against Geelong. We were much better than them, so we won comfortably, but they were still fighting. Port were terrible. Most of the competition would have beaten them that night because they had no fight in them. The Dogs threw one punch early and Port dropped straight to the canvas, hoping that the count came quickly. 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Axis of Bob

[DutchDemons 1,442]

The best bit of analysis he did all year was when he showed how when top 8 teams play each other, they win 50% of the time. Truly big brain stuff.

[Mazer Rackham 14,972]

11 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

David King knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Very well summed up. What's the use of unremitting quoting of stats if you can't find any predictive value in them?

 

1 hour ago, AmsterdamDeesFan said:

The best bit of analysis he did all year was when he showed how when top 8 teams play each other, they win 50% of the time. Truly big brain stuff.

Exactly what you find in any ladder, in any competition, any sport, anywhere in the world. The number of "wins" is the same as the number of "losses". Rocket surgery from King.