COVID & AFL 2021

[Webber 10,433]

11 hours ago, Foopy on the telly said:

The virus is now most likely always going to exist

That’s not a ‘most likely’, it’s an absolute. As per influenza, it will circulate, evolve and mutate whilst it has humans to infect. Vax or no, it’s never going away. As for the flu, but more compellingly obviously, and government mandated to various degrees around the world, we will require vax boosters for the remainder of our lives. These will improve, so it may end up as every 3 years or such like. Treatments for the disease will and already are improving. There is currently a trial growing through its last stage that decreases symptom potency by 50%, thus hospital admission/ventilator support and death. 
 

I find it frustrating to re-iterate the point, because it’s so poorly reasoned and understood, particularly by the ‘just open up’ crowd, but the reason we are locked down is very simple. Greater infection rates means greater numbers who become ill. A high enough percentage of those who become ill need hospitalisation and OUR hospital infrastructure becomes overwhelmed. Not enough beds, not enough staff (who can become ill themselves and thus leave the workforce - temporarily and some permanently), and not enough equipment. What comes next is the salient point. ALL those illnesses, injuries and diseases that would normally have access to hospitalisation and care CAN’T then be treated. This could and will be any one of us. Heart disease, life-threatening cancers, broken limbs, everything then gets neglected, and our fabulously privileged, otherwise healthy society suddenly becomes not so. Knock-on effect of COVID.

Two recent stories. Last week I treated a final year paramedic student. She has for the last 3 months been seconded to a vaccination hub, to be a vaccinator, in order that nurses who would normally get the gig are allowed back into the hospitals, because they are desperately short-staffed. Remember, she is a student. Knock-on effect of COVID. 

I witnessed a car accident outside my double vaxxed 96 year-old mother’s house just yesterday. Two cars, one driver ok, the other trapped in his van. I went to help, he was incredibly distressed and agitated, desperately trying to get out of his van, which was smoking, trying impossibly to crawl out his shattered window. I couldn’t get any doors open, so tried to keep him calm whilst someone else called the ambo. He appeared relatively unharmed, no blood, able to move all limbs although his right arm was in spasm. He was clearly in shock, and couldn’t tell me his name, or in fact speak at all. He then lifted his cap to show me a broad surgical scar along his forehead. I asked if he’d suffered a previous head-injury, to which he calmly affirmed with a nod. He became easier to settle after this. Within ~ 10 minutes of the crash the paramedics arrived, two minutes later the fire-engine, who wrenched open his door with a portable machine (clearly built for such things). He was assisted out and into the ambulance. This is simply spectacular emergency attendance and care. It’s what we’ve come to rely on. This would not happen if COVID is allowed to overwhelm the system. Let’s assume he’d suffered his pre-existing head injury from trauma, or perhaps cerebral incident - tumour, bleed. He obviously survived whatever this was, and has thrived, undoubtedly because he was treated in a timely fashion - AS AND WHEN IT WAS NEEDED. All of this goes away if COVID runs our health system beyond its limits. 
 

We are lucky, and privileged. We have two simple choices to keep it that way. Get vaccinated, and do what the experts tell us to limit infection. The light is at the end of the tunnel. 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Webber
Typo

[Webber 10,433]

52 minutes ago, Premiers said:

The buildings to create a dedicated covid facility are there.  It is a matter of converting and resourcing them.

The health system doesn’t have the workforce, LH. It is currently stretched beyond graduate professional limits. 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

1 hour ago, binman said:

My brain when looking for something in the fridge/cupboard/pantry: does not compute, it is not there, cannot see required object

 

And you expect to find what you’re looking for???It’s a proven scientific fact: men cannot multitask. In this particular case… finding something in fridge/cupboard/pantry AND breathing. 

[Lucifers Hero 38,974]

24 minutes ago, Webber said:

The health system doesn’t have the workforce, LH. It is currently stretched beyond graduate professional limits. 

I know, hence my comment about having had 18 months to prepare.  But it is what it is. 

It is where we go to from here that is the question.  Because, open up we will; domestically and internationally, ready or not.

On resources, I read recently that we are fast tracking the recruitment of thousands of international medical staff to cope with the covid case surge when we open up.  The question is how we best use those people and the equipment and people that are currently in the covid units in our hospitals. 

Can't help but think those units are currently taking valuable resources from other in-house units, are competing with other hospitals for the same scarce resources and that there is a fair amount of covid related duplication of equipment and people across the health and hospital system.

We need hospitals to get back to pre covid levels of treatment.  We can't if they are trying to deliver and cope with a surge in covid services.  So my idea is use this time to set up a dedicated facility.  It is a better use of new and existing resources and reduces the risk of a hospital covid outbreak closing the other services that hospital offers.  

My idea isn't radical or new.  We had the Fairfield Infectious Diseases Hospital until 25 years ago.  It dealt with a variety of epidemics/infectious diseases during its 90 years, including the Spanish Fly, Polio, Aids etc.  When closed its departments were sent to different  hospitals around Melbourne.  

As you mentioned, covid is here to stay.  We need to deal with that in a health and economically effective way.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Premiers

[Demonstone 21,759]

15 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

men cannot multitask

Neither can women, it would seem.  They are unable to have sex and a headache at the same time.  

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

3 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

Neither can women, it would seem.  They are unable to have sex and a headache at the same time.  

Unlike men who can have sex and a frontal lobotomy at the same time. 😃

[Lucifers Hero 38,974]

38 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

And you expect to find what you’re looking for???It’s a proven scientific fact: men cannot multitask. In this particular case… finding something in fridge/cupboard/pantry AND breathing. 

 

23 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

Neither can women, it would seem.  They are unable to have sex and a headache at the same time.  

 

18 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Unlike men who can have sex and a frontal lobotomy at the same time. 😃

You two need to 'Get a Room'!! 😐

Edited October 12, 2021 by Premiers

[Webber 10,433]

9 minutes ago, Premiers said:

I know, hence my comment about having had 18 months to prepare.  But it is what it is. 

It is where we go to from here that is the question.  Because, open up we will; domestically and internationally, ready or not.

On resources, I read recently that we are fast tracking the recruitment of thousands of international medical staff to cope with the covid case surge when we open up.  The question is how we best use those people and the equipment and people that are currently in the covid units in our hospitals. 

Can't help but think those units are currently taking valuable resources from other in-house units, are competing with other hospitals for the same scarce resources and that there is a fair amount of covid related duplication of equipment and people across the health and hospital system.

We need hospitals to get back to pre covid levels of treatment.  We can't if they are trying to deliver and cope with a surge in covid services.  So my idea is use this time to set up a dedicated facility.  It is a better use of new and existing resources and reduces the risk of a hospital covid outbreak closing the other services that hospital offers.  .

Agree entirely. The problem is that this requires enormous investment (18 months was never enough time to bridge the gap, but I agree the process should have been fast-tracked regardless), which must be sourced from the populous. Tax levies must be increased to pay for a more expansive system, wages and conditions for health-workers must be improved to attract them. I’m happy to pay for this. Do you think our governments (all) have the stomach for selling this to the public at large? 

 

[Webber 10,433]

17 minutes ago, Premiers said:

My idea isn't radical or new.  We had the Fairfield Infectious Diseases Hospital until 25 years ago.  It dealt with a variety of epidemics/infectious diseases during its 90 years, including the Spanish Fly, Polio, Aids etc.  When closed its departments were sent to different  hospitals around Melbourne.  

My first graduate job was at Fairfield. Fantastic place, wonderful people. The ‘economics’ of de-institutionalisation defeated it. 

[Lucifers Hero 38,974]

15 minutes ago, Webber said:

Agree entirely. The problem is that this requires enormous investment (18 months was never enough time to bridge the gap, but I agree the process should have been fast-tracked regardless), which must be sourced from the populous. Tax levies must be increased to pay for a more expansive system, wages and conditions for health-workers must be improved to attract them. I’m happy to pay for this. Do you think our governments (all) have the stomach for selling this to the public at large? 

There will never be a better time to sell a covid health/hospital management plan.  There is enough fear of illness and lockdown frustration, especially in Victoria for people to accept almost anything.  

Afterall, Victoria added a 'Fire Levy' to home insurance policies about 15 years ago which iirc was supposed to be temporary and it has never been lifted (now lost in 'general revenue').  Something similar but health related?  Divert monies form some low priority/non productive ventures....

Edited October 12, 2021 by Premiers

[Demonstone 21,759]

42 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Unlike men who can have sex and a frontal lobotomy at the same time

I'd rather have a full bottle in front of me than a full frontal lobotomy.

[binman 41,945]

34 minutes ago, Webber said:

The health system doesn’t have the workforce, LH. It is currently stretched beyond graduate professional limits. 

Added to this, our investment in our health system (and by system i mean the whole shebang, not just hospitals) in Victoria has been completely inadequate since the Kennett years, by Labor and Liberal governments alike.

So 25 plus years of underinvestment in policy development, communication, community health, hospitals etc etc.

And we all have some responsibility let that situation evolve, to some extent, in so far as collectively we have not made it an election issue. Or enough of one

I'm firmly of the belief that this decades long underinvestment was a huge factor in some of the problematic elements of our response early days in our first outbreak and lock down (ie 2020). 

NSW have not underinvested in their health system, at least not to the same degree, and were much better place to respond to the  ultra shock of a world wide pandemic.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,644]

1 hour ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Unlike men who can have sex and a frontal lobotomy at the same time. 😃

I'll just leave this here

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,357]

Given our French based posters this extremely large French study is very encouraging.

Vaccination reduces the risk of dying or being hospitalised with Covid-19 by 90%, a French study of 22.6 million people over the age of 50 has found.

The research published on Monday also found that vaccines appear to protect against the worst effects of the most prevalent virus strain, the Delta variant.

“This means that those who are vaccinated are nine times less at risk of being hospitalised or dying from Covid-19 than those who have not been vaccinated,” the epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik, who oversaw the research, told Agence France-Presse.

The study – the largest of its kind so far – was carried out by Epi-Phare a scientific group set up by France’s health system, its national health insurance fund, l’Assurance Maladie (CNAM), and the country’s ANSM medicines agency.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/french-study-vaccines-cut-covid-deaths

[binman 41,945]

20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Given our French based posters this extremely large French study is very encouraging.

Vaccination reduces the risk of dying or being hospitalised with Covid-19 by 90%, a French study of 22.6 million people over the age of 50 has found.

The research published on Monday also found that vaccines appear to protect against the worst effects of the most prevalent virus strain, the Delta variant.

“This means that those who are vaccinated are nine times less at risk of being hospitalised or dying from Covid-19 than those who have not been vaccinated,” the epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik, who oversaw the research, told Agence France-Presse.

The study – the largest of its kind so far – was carried out by Epi-Phare a scientific group set up by France’s health system, its national health insurance fund, l’Assurance Maladie (CNAM), and the country’s ANSM medicines agency.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/french-study-vaccines-cut-covid-deaths

Sample size too small

[old dee 23,487]

20 hours ago, daisycutter said:

the only thing i'm sure of is..........we are premiers..............yay!

I still waking up wondering if it is true dc.

[Foopy on the telly 514]

4 hours ago, Webber said:

That’s not a ‘most likely’, it’s an absolute. As per influenza, it will circulate, evolve and mutate whilst it has humans to infect. Vax or no, it’s never going away. As for the flu, but more compellingly obviously, and government mandated to various degrees around the world, we will require vax boosters for the remainder of our lives. These will improve, so it may end up as every 3 years or such like. Treatments for the disease will and already are improving. There is currently a trial growing through its last stage that decreases symptom potency by 50%, thus hospital admission/ventilator support and death. 
 

I find it frustrating to re-iterate the point, because it’s so poorly reasoned and understood, particularly by the ‘just open up’ crowd, but the reason we are locked down is very simple. Greater infection rates means greater numbers who become ill. A high enough percentage of those who become ill need hospitalisation and OUR hospital infrastructure becomes overwhelmed. Not enough beds, not enough staff (who can become ill themselves and thus leave the workforce - temporarily and some permanently), and not enough equipment. What comes next is the salient point. ALL those illnesses, injuries and diseases that would normally have access to hospitalisation and care CAN’T then be treated. This could and will be any one of us. Heart disease, life-threatening cancers, broken limbs, everything then gets neglected, and our fabulously privileged, otherwise healthy society suddenly becomes not so. Knock-on effect of COVID.

Two recent stories. Last week I treated a final year paramedic student. She has for the last 3 months been seconded to a vaccination hub, to be a vaccinator, in order that nurses who would normally get the gig are allowed back into the hospitals, because they are desperately short-staffed. Remember, she is a student. Knock-on effect of COVID. 

I witnessed a car accident outside my double vaxxed 96 year-old mother’s house just yesterday. Two cars, one driver ok, the other trapped in his van. I went to help, he was incredibly distressed and agitated, desperately trying to get out of his van, which was smoking, trying impossibly to crawl out his shattered window. I couldn’t get any doors open, so tried to keep him calm whilst someone else called the ambo. He appeared relatively unharmed, no blood, able to move all limbs although his right arm was in spasm. He was clearly in shock, and couldn’t tell me his name, or in fact speak at all. He then lifted his cap to show me a broad surgical scar along his forehead. I asked if he’d suffered a previous head-injury, to which he calmly affirmed with a nod. He became easier to settle after this. Within ~ 10 minutes of the crash the paramedics arrived, two minutes later the fire-engine, who wrenched open his door with a portable machine (clearly built for such things). He was assisted out and into the ambulance. This is simply spectacular emergency attendance and care. It’s what we’ve come to rely on. This would not happen if COVID is allowed to overwhelm the system. Let’s assume he’d suffered his pre-existing head injury from trauma, or perhaps cerebral incident - tumour, bleed. He obviously survived whatever this was, and has thrived, undoubtedly because he was treated in a timely fashion - AS AND WHEN IT WAS NEEDED. All of this goes away if COVID runs our health system beyond its limits. 
 

We are lucky, and privileged. We have two simple choices to keep it that way. Get vaccinated, and do what the experts tell us to limit infection. The light is at the end of the tunnel. 

Excellent post. That makes for very emotional reading. Tbh I was unsure whether to put the “most likely” in my post at first, but yes the virus will always exist, and it’s imperative that the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed to the point where no one can get the care they need, like you and so many others have said. Just hope everything settles in the long term.
 

On a side note, will they eventually produce a vaccine that’s both effective against covid and the flu?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Given our French based posters this extremely large French study is very encouraging.

Vaccination reduces the risk of dying or being hospitalised with Covid-19 by 90%, a French study of 22.6 million people over the age of 50 has found.

The research published on Monday also found that vaccines appear to protect against the worst effects of the most prevalent virus strain, the Delta variant.

“This means that those who are vaccinated are nine times less at risk of being hospitalised or dying from Covid-19 than those who have not been vaccinated,” the epidemiologist Mahmoud Zureik, who oversaw the research, told Agence France-Presse.

The study – the largest of its kind so far – was carried out by Epi-Phare a scientific group set up by France’s health system, its national health insurance fund, l’Assurance Maladie (CNAM), and the country’s ANSM medicines agency.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/french-study-vaccines-cut-covid-deaths

I read that piece this morning and there was a pithy yet resonant quote within it:

"An epidemic without serious infections is no longer an epidemic"

Hence, why vaccination is so key. We are nearly out of the woods in the global north and in richer countries. We need remember however that nations such as Haiti have a 1% vaccination rate.

While we can look forward to easing restrictions and local conditions on the ground are key in determining how any jurisdiction proceeds with public health measures, we must remember that no one is safe until we all are. 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Colin B. Flaubert
'Without', not with.

[layzie 32,801]

15 hours ago, binman said:

I thought that was the issue too. But you don't need to log on. I couldn’t work it our for ages Then finally read the instructions properly.

You have to go to google play and update your vic services app. And then go through the steps

Ditto Binman, finally got it on this morning after another 10 minute stab at it!

[Webber 10,433]

1 hour ago, Foopy on the telly said:

On a side note, will they eventually produce a vaccine that’s both effective against covid and the flu?

Interesting point. Sounds good. The AstraZeneca vax is of course partlyrelated/piggybacked on flu vax technology.

[Slartibartfast 16,876]

5 hours ago, Webber said:

Agree entirely. The problem is that this requires enormous investment (18 months was never enough time to bridge the gap, but I agree the process should have been fast-tracked regardless), which must be sourced from the populous. Tax levies must be increased to pay for a more expansive system, wages and conditions for health-workers must be improved to attract them. I’m happy to pay for this. Do you think our governments (all) have the stomach for selling this to the public at large? 

 

So if you were in charge what would you do Webber?

[Webber 10,433]

4 hours ago, binman said:

I'm firmly of the belief that this decades long underinvestment was a huge factor in some of the problematic elements of our response early days in our first outbreak and lock down (ie 2020). 

Certainly was. Post-war, in fact post-polio in the 1950’s, our infrastructural pandemic response was high. Fairfield Hospital as @Premiers has mentioned, and Point Nepean quarantine facility to mention two now non-existent entities. Without getting too political (though it’s not really possible), the Kennett years savaged Victoria’s public health protections. Labour governments as you say haven’t had anywhere near the guts to repair it. NSW avoided the Kennett effect. The broader trend is post-war neo-liberalism’s erosion of governmental responsibility for health. The rise of Private Health, which creates a horribly ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ system in itself (just look at the US), together with growing societal wealth disparity simply means we have an under-resourced, hierarchical system of health provision and protection. COVID should be the biggest wake-up call. I’m not hopeful. We can, as you also say, vote for a correction. But we need the choice to be offered. Depressing.
 

As a positive, the paramedic student I treated was attracted to the profession only because of a complete overhaul of pay and conditions, which people may remember was such a hot union issue a few years ago (ambulances with ‘graffiti’ calling for improvements?). They now get 12 weeks annual holiday, protections on the job through better staffing, mental health care, etc. They are an essential Public Health Service that was being run into the ground by economic deprivation and staff exploitation. Oddly enough, it’s now seen as a much more attractive profession. Would that this model be applied universally, and those who hoard an ever-greater slice of the wealth pie be a MUCH bigger part of footing the bill. We’ll see. 

 

[Webber 10,433]

44 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

So if you were in charge what would you do Webber?

Big question BB! Can’t avoid a political answer. As someone with a single vote, I will continue to use it as best I know to reinforce a philosophy and practise of social responsibility. If I were someone looking for votes, I would want to aggressively address wealth inequality - taxes, regulation, and move Australia back toward free comprehensive health-care, education at all levels, basically a social democracy as we see practised elsewhere in the world. That’s just me, though. Too much? 

[bing181 8,908]

8 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Bing, this was very helpful and also comforting to know. But can you please explain a bit more about the bolded line? Is this the French (or EU) equivalent of a digital certificate that confirms vaccine status?  

Employees in all these places have some kind of pass-checking app on their phones. The rest of us have an app that stores/displays a QR code with your vaccination status. So yes, a digital certificate, and while each country has their own app, the certificates all follow the same format and can be validated/read anywhere in the EU.

[Slartibartfast 16,876]

40 minutes ago, Webber said:

Big question BB! Can’t avoid a political answer. As someone with a single vote, I will continue to use it as best I know to reinforce a philosophy and practise of social responsibility. If I were someone looking for votes, I would want to aggressively address wealth inequality - taxes, regulation, and move Australia back toward free comprehensive health-care, education at all levels, basically a social democracy as we see practised elsewhere in the world. That’s just me, though. Too much? 

Sorry, I should have been more specific.  What would you do about COVID and opening up?