Trump v. Biden

[dieter 3,325]

6 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Seriously though, how good is Trump?!

You mean, how full of scheissen is Trump, surely?

[Macca 16,644]

Just now, dieter said:

I taut dis was quite civilised for a while. Enter the H word, I'm outta her baby. have a good life.

I will have a good life thank you very much.

I worry about you though ... constantly outraged about stuff you can't control.

Why do you even bother? 

Anyway,  it looks like you might have to put up with Trump for another 4 years so you're better off coming to terms with it all

I have already. 

The world isn't coming to an end.  One just has to find a way to avoid him.  But I'd be avoiding Biden as well if he somehow wins

[dieter 3,325]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

I will have a good life thank you very much.

I worry about you though ... constantly outraged about stuff you can't control.

Why do you even bother? 

Anyway,  it looks like you might have to put up with Trump for another 4 years so you're better off coming to terms with it all

I have already. 

The world isn't coming to an end.  One just has to find a way to avoid him.  But I'd be avoiding Biden as well if he somehow wins

You will never know how much I despise Biden, the same way I thoroughly despise Hilary. They are/were both pig ignorant privileged war mongers. I ain't black and white, Macca, I think for myself.

[Macca 16,644]

4 minutes ago, dieter said:

I have no US team. If you consider the Democrats The Left, well, you got some serious thinking to do.

Also, I have been more critical of the Democrats in my life than the so-called Republicans. Why? Because the D's are the biggest B/shieters of all. And the left? They lost their souls before they were even formed. Bye Macca. Nice knowing ya.

Weren't the Democrats originally pro slavery? 

Is that what you are talking about? 

You are left wing Dieter.  No point denying it.  And rusted on lefties in Oz are often all-in with the Democrats in the USA

Condemning all Americans is a bit rich just because it looks like Trump might win

Their Country is a mess especially due to Covid but so are many of the European Nations.

 

[Macca 16,644]

A case could be made for Trump winning all the remaining 6 States not decided.  But there again,  he might only win 3 or 4.  But that might be enough

He is leading in 5 of the States (Wisconsin,  Michigan,  Georgia,  North Carolina & Pennsylvania) but trails in Nevada

I'd be giving Trump Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) as he leads there by 675,000 and has 55% of the vote but all the other seats sees a gap of 110k or less.

And all up (in all the States) there are 20 Million votes to be counted. 

The scoreline right now is Biden 238 Trump 213

If someone gave me 1000 bucks to bet with I'd put in on Trump. 

[Jaded No More 67,773]

Our only hope is the postal votes which will be strongly in favor of Biden. 

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

 Trump has already won.  His lead is unassailable in too many of the leftover states even with voter fraud factored in.

How about the democrats though?   Losing the election so just stop counting and shut things down for the night.  They are disgusting and you wouldn't even see that level of corruption and fraud in the 3rd world.

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Pickett2Jackson

[Diamond_Jim 12,360]

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

Our only hope is the postal votes which will be strongly in favor of Biden. 

On my quick calculations in Pensylvania he would need almost an 80-20 split to make up the difference. (64% of the vote presently counted)

Much the same in Wisconsin but in that state 94% of the vote has been counted.

In normal times this would be impossible but given that Trump told his base to avoid the post it might be achieved.

Michigan is a little easier at somewhere near 70/30 if not a little less with 80% of the vote counted. (Michigan alone only gets him to 260  [assuming Biden takes Nevada ] so he would need another State assuming Georgia goes to Trump)

Remember that the postal votes also include international and military votes that will have a more normal distribution.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Diamond_Jim

[The Lobster Effect 877]

How did 233,000 COVID deaths this year not seem to have an impact on people's voting!?

[hardtack 10,422]

44 minutes ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 Trump has already won.  His lead is unassailable in too many of the leftover states even with voter fraud factored in.

How about the democrats though?   Losing the election so just stop counting and shut things down for the night.  They are disgusting and you wouldn't even see that level of corruption and fraud in the 3rd world.

 

Fraud??? They are doing things the way they have always been done and within the law. Trump may well win,  but there is still a slight chance that he won’t. What does it matter if counting stops during the night? No laws have been broken.
 

Edit: It was Trump who said “We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them adding new votes to the list at four in the morning.”.

Edited November 4, 2020 by hardtack

[Macca 16,644]

Biden has hit the front in Wisconsin! (and now only 77,000 behind in North Carolina)

If Biden wins Nevada,  North Carolina & Wisconsin he'd be sitting on 269 Electoral College Votes - 1 vote short of victory.  He would need another State to win outright

Click on this site for an updated vote count for the 6 States that are still undecided (n.b the vote count updates whilst the site is open - scroll down for the Swing States)

[hardtack 10,422]

9 minutes ago, Macca said:

1 vote short of victory

The Dems should get that 1 seat/vote in Maine.

Edited November 4, 2020 by hardtack

[Diamond_Jim 12,360]

21 minutes ago, Macca said:

Biden has hit the front in Wisconsin! (and now only 77,000 behind in North Carolina)

If Biden wins Nevada,  North Carolina & Wisconsin he'd be sitting on 269 Electoral College Votes - 1 vote short of victory.  He would need another State to win outright

Click on this site for an updated vote count for the 6 States that are still undecided (n.b the vote count updates whilst the site is open - scroll down for the Swing States)

Michigan is now the key... win that Nevada and Wisconsin and he wins

[Macca 16,644]

14 minutes ago, hardtack said:

The Dems should get that 1 seat/vote in Maine.

Has not the State of Maine been settled? 

1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Michigan is now the key... win that Nevada and Wisconsin and he wins

Yep but Biden is over 200k behind in Michigan with 82% of the vote counted.  He'd need to get a move on

But Biden bridged a 100k deficit in Wisconsin in quick time.  Hasn't won there yet but 95% of the vote has been counted in Wisconsin

[Jara 1,153]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

Has not the State of Maine been settled? 

Yep but Biden is over 200k behind in Michigan with 82% of the vote counted.  He'd need to get a move on

But Biden bridged a 100k deficit in Wisconsin in quick time.  Hasn't won there yet but 95% of the vote has been counted in Wisconsin

Just listening to Planet America - looks to me like there may well be enough in the early votes and postals to get Biden over the line - if the Supremes let him.

[Macca 16,644]

7 minutes ago, Jara said:

Just listening to Planet America - looks to me like there may well be enough in the early votes and postals to get Biden over the line - if the Supremes let him.

Yeah I'm watching it right now Jara but they are both 'barracking' a tad!  Could be wrong

I intimated earlier this arvo on this thread that blocks of votes for 1 candidate can be put aside to be re-checked and then soon after added to the total

That might explain Biden bridging a 100k gap in Wisconsin in quick time

If more of that sort of thing happens Biden might just get up.  The counting of the votes and when those votes are counted in is a bit of a mystery. 

CBS Radio mentioned the above a number of times today.

It ain't over yet but we'll find out at daybreak here you'd imagine.  Or maybe it could drag on for days

[dpositive 1,651]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

I will have a good life thank you very much.

I worry about you though ... constantly outraged about stuff you can't control.

Why do you even bother? 

Anyway,  it looks like you might have to put up with Trump for another 4 years so you're better off coming to terms with it all

I have already. 

The world isn't coming to an end.  One just has to find a way to avoid him.  But I'd be avoiding Biden as well if he somehow wins

Macca , I have just caught up with this thread and found your analysis fantastic , and now with hindsight very accurate.

i will watch your comments with much more interest.

Hope you can analyse the MFC as accurately.

[Jaded No More 67,773]

1 hour ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

 Trump has already won.  His lead is unassailable in too many of the leftover states even with voter fraud factored in.

How about the democrats though?   Losing the election so just stop counting and shut things down for the night.  They are disgusting and you wouldn't even see that level of corruption and fraud in the 3rd world.

 

I gotta put you on ignore. Your posts are bad for my blood pressure and hatred for humanity. 

[Macca 16,644]

3 minutes ago, dpositive said:

Hope you can analyse the MFC as accurately.

No chance dp ... the workings of the MFC is an even greater mystery than the US electoral voting system!

Just when you think we're up and running we fall into a huge chasm again

As always,  with regards to the Demons,  we live in pure hope!

[The Lobster Effect 877]

I've been keeping my eye on the odds (sure, not the most scientific method but there is money at stake for sportsbet..) 

There's been more momentum shifts then a good game of footy... biden favourite, then trump favourite, now biden favourite. Better not get my hopes up though!

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/US-Presidential-Election-2020-2982545 

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,360]

Pensylvania will drop an enormous number of votes in one hit in the next few hours.

For reasons I can't understand that State will not publish the pre poll votes before they have finished counting all the election day votes

Get ready for a big shift

If Trump hadn't lost me three plus years ago how bad do you have to be to question your own country's voting system.

Undermining trust in institutions is what third world dictators are so good at.

PS... Trump now only 60k ahead in Michigan with around 600k votes to be counted.

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Diamond_Jim

[Macca 16,644]

20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

PS... Trump now only 60k ahead in Michigan with around 600k votes to be counted.

 

That's a 150k catch-up in quick time.  Same thing happened in Wisconsin.  It looks a bit dodgy but not if blocks of votes for one candidate are put aside for a final check

Nevada is tightening up at the same time though ... less than an 8000 lead to Biden with only 67% of votes counted in that State. 

[Macca 16,644]

The gap is now down to 12k in Michigan with 90% of the votes counted.  Biden leads by 21k in Wisconsin with 95% of the votes counted

Biden is hunting Trump down!

It's a barnburner!

[hardtack 10,422]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Has not the State of Maine been settled? 

Maine is one of two states that have a strange system where there are more than one allocation of electoral college votes... there was still one vote available there, and it was looking like it will end up with the Dems.

 Hopefully that won’t be of any significance as Biden is finishing with a rush to take the lead in Wisconsin by almost one percentage point, is just 0.2% behind in Michigan and is steadily closing the gap in Georgia.

Edited November 4, 2020 by hardtack

[Grr-owl 1,171]

8 hours ago, dieter said:

I am totally bemused by the simple fact that Australia seems to be obsessed with a US election. The way I understand this is that somehow or other the US has subliminally permeated the skulls of post 1960 generations who understand the US via pop culture and those corny television series like 'Father Knows Best'. Then there's Hollywood and its capacity to perniciously spread lies and propaganda. 

I understand the US as a totally failed state which has somehow conned the world that it stands for anything other than brutality, wars and uninvited intervention in the lives and politics of countries throughout the globe. Before WW2 it's main sphere of skulduggery and rape was close to home, though its rape of the Philippines was its first major participation in European colonisation of Asia. It then - with Britain - totally economically strangulated Japan and post WW2, it has dropped its dreaded arsenal on too many countries to enumerate. ( People may also forget its role in installing the Shah of Iran, ousting one of the first truly democratic middle eastern countries.)  Australia, unfortunately, swapped its blind allegiance to every British Colonial war, and followed the US into Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and would have queued up to rape Iran had Joe Biden had his way in 2009.

The other thing people have amnesia about regarding the US is that its so-called constitution was written by slave owners who never once grasped the tragic irony of their fictional nonsense, that 'all men are born equal'.

In the meantime, we have a country which randomly shoots its Black population, in which its citizen  have a 'constitutional right' to arm themselves to the teeth, whose economy is based on producing weapons of mass destruction - oh, and the movie industry and pop music - which has fallen prey to one the most mendacious, dumbf''k, mental midget, basically illiterate, bully boy liar and manipulator in world history.

In fact, as you point out, 43% of the population voted for him. I remind people that the biggest vote Adolf Hitler ever got in an election was 33%.

Also among the pioneers of many freedoms, including those for the slaves you mention - slavery being a universal institution until the British outlawed it in 1833 and the US followed in 1863. The Ottoman sultan laughed in the face of the British when they proposed it in Istanbul. Jefferson was well aware of what he was doing when he wrote "all men are created equal," and the political possibilities, associations and implications. He was a very very smart bloke.

The British leveraged its colonial power to enforce the ban on slavery around the world, and managed eventually to bring along everyone except for Benin. It could therefore be argued that colonialism and the dominance of the West was instrumental, pivotal, essential even, to ending slavery, especially given the resistance the idea encountered in other civilisations which clung to divine authority for enslavement, and still do. Oh, the irony.

The US is also, along with Australia and other Western nations, where everybody runs to when they want to escape oppressive government and religious regimes. Where else is there to run? You can't migrate to China, India, Russia, the Middle East or pretty much anywhere else on earth. You can't become Chinese; either you are born Chinese or you aren't. It is an idea of belonging built entirely on race, whereas as anyone can become Australian, or American, or a New Zealander or British... Take a look around at the faces in the crowd the next time you're at the footy. They're from everywhere.

In my experience other civilizations have all the bad [censored] we do, but a smaller measure of the good. On this point, it can be instructive to reflect on the role that language plays in knowledge. That is, we know about the US failures and abuses because we speak English, and because it is an open society in which the failures and abuses are written about and reflected on in public. What do we know of the failures and abuses of other societies, those written in other languages? How many programs do we watch about the Chinese Civil War or the Cultural Revolution? If a history is written in Chinese and rewritten each time a new regime takes over, how do their own citizens understand their past? Can you understand their TV? Does their TV criticise the regime, interrogate their past, reflect honestly on it? How are people who criticize treated?

Nah, the West is not so bad... Could be better, but. My fear is that unless we get over the political polarization and self-flagellation of the present, we're going down. Will things be better then?