Game plans, tactics and all that jazz

[deanox 9,892]

5 hours ago, jnrmac said:

When you play a team game throwing around the magnets takes away from the strategy. Players become confused about who goes where and who is minding who etc. It becomes self defeating. Better off using Grundy or Gawn to be the floater fwd or back to assist the defence or frwards

To counter teams attacking frm their D50 Goody has used tactics like Petty on T McCartin and Thommo on McKay. Or ANB /Kozzie shadowing Saad. I fully expect JSMith to shadow Moore with Gawn/Grundy floating fwd. And I expect to see ANB or Kozie shadow the kick ins and follow up running from Daicos

Our wings when we are attacking usually run fwd of the ball, particularly at centre bounce. We rarely have our wings coming in to the defensive side of the centre scrimmage. They like to keep their width and are often used as an exit if we are in trouble.

This is really salient.

Historically AFL was pretty light on for strategy: get ball and bang it forward. So throwing around the magnets was a genuine tactical move that made sense.

Nowadays, the equivalent of throwing magnets around is more likely to be getting your wingers to hang back defensively, pushing an extra HFF closer to the midfield stoppages, or maybe having your ruck dropping back deeper to cover the D50 instead of the half back line. Ok so sometimes there is a swing man, but it's often more of a hail Mary (like Petty forward in last year's finals).

[deanox 9,892]

23 hours ago, deanox said:

I'm in redlegs, Level 2 Punt Rd end directly behind the goals. I've sat there as standard as long as I can remember.

The view of the structures and zone moving up the field, how it shifts side to side, and even how we lengthen it at times, is really clear there.

 

Against Carlton was a mile ahead of anything else I've seen us do this year. I was surprised to see the pressure rating low because of how well we were constantly setting up, shifting and forcing them to just stop. I guess that running hard to space to set up a defensive zone doesn't qualify as a  "pressure act" for the purpose of preasure points because it isn't about directly pressuring the ball carrier.

I wasn't surprised that Goody was happy with what he saw. 

 

Last time I sat on the true wing I was really frustrated. It's better than TV, but it is so hard to see what's happening with shape.

 

22 hours ago, binman said:

For years I've sat on the top of the Ponsford. It's only this year that I've been sitting on the wing/hf

The wing level one is great when the ball is being played on that wing. And the players are so much closer

Can't see jack on the other side. Or Max.

And the dees quarter time huddles are right below, which i like. 

@binmanI've finally gotten around to the pod for this week. I had asked a question about sloppy vs pressure, and it has been talked about the game was actually low pressure based on the rating points.

Reflecting further, I don't think the game was "high pressure" in the way the pressure rating measures (pressure on the ball carrier) but as described above I thought our work to set up structures, zones, etc was first rate, and that created indirect pressure (I guess you can call it).

It's interesting because I thought that the way we played placed them under a lot of pressure: no where to go, not many options, forward thrusts neutered or repelled. But all without "pressure" according to champion data's definitions.

They had 10+ turnovers more than their average. I think this was as much because we forced them to take low percentage options through great zone and defensive work, as anything else. So "pressure" was low, but we generated turnovers through structure.

This is probably the best case scenario for Goody and the team. Our strategy (zone) results in turnovers without the aerobic effort to apply manic pressure. Both are needed against great teams and in finals. But it's important to get the first one working.

Edited June 11, 2023 by deanox

[speed demon 804]

Given the bye this weekend, I thought I would give this thread a bump and submit a longer post for discussion.  @binman previously theorised the three most significant determinants of premiership success – fitness, quality of the list and relative ages, and luck with injury. He also cited coaching as the next most important determinant. I have adapted Binman’s formulation to be: personnel, fitness (incorporating injuries) and method (incorporating coaching). I neologise this three-pronged conceptual framework as ‘the trident’. I use ‘the trident’ as a lens to evaluate our recent past (i.e. 2018-22), present (i.e. mid-2023) and future (July-September 2023). I hope my thoughts are received as contributing to the passionate discussion about the team we love and I promise not to make a habit of such lengthy posts. Many thanks to the great insights of numerous Demonlanders who have shaped my views.

 

TLDR? Just skip to the last two paragraphs. 

 

The past

In the first half of September 2018 the Dees charged through Geelong and Hawthorn, announcing our re-emergence from our decennium horribilis. We had a core of high-quality mid-fielders (Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw), an attacking method and excellent fitness. In third week of September, our charge ended in an embarrassing collision with a blue and yellow wall precipitating a reality check; our list lacked a spread of premiership-quality players and a method that prevailed deep in September. 

 

Steven May was an astute addition to the team ahead of the 2019 season. May would partner with Jack Lever - recruited the season before – and control the opposition’s biggest key forward allowing Lever freedom to play interceptor. Unfortunately, May’s early experience mirrored the club’s more generally for 2019. With half the list afflicted with pre-season injuries - precluding players from optimising their fitness before the season – the year was essentially over before it begun. 

 

Ed Langdon’s recruitment prior to 2020 continued the trend of recruiting players to perform specific roles. Goodwin’s use of Langdon in 2020 rejuvenated the role of wingers in the modern game. Darren Burgess, high performance manager, was perhaps the most significant recruitment coming into 2020. That the Dees went from an unfit and injury-afflicted 17^th in 2019 to a fit and injury-free premiership in 2021 is perhaps attributable to the application of Burgess’ approach to fitness more than any other factor (link to short article with salient Burgess quotes below). 

https://www.afl.com.au/news/686425/fitness-guru-reveals-secret-to-dees-incredible-injury-free-run

 

In 2021, our core of high-quality to elite players had expanded to include May, Lever, Salem, Langdon, Fritsch, and were now supported by a stronger cast of role players. Key to this was the emergence of young talent in 2021 (e.g. Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Harrison Petty and Trent Rivers). Ben Brown was yet another excellent recruitment, playing a vital role in improving the structure of the forward line. With a list of quality players an in great fitness, Goodwin was able to implement a highly demanding game plan involving two-way running. The attacking flare of 2018 was matched with a whole-of-team defensive press that suffocated the opposition. A footballing syzygy had been achieved; the alignment of quality players, excellent fitness and a unique and comprehensive method yielded a convincing premiership.  

 

The focus of 2022 seemed to be to repeat 2021 in fitness, personnel and method. While the record books show we won our first ten games, issues were simmering under the surface. Numerous key players (especially defenders) sustained injuries in the pre- and early season. Many continued to play injured, perhaps as part of the Burgess philosophy of building physical resilience. Frequently we read reports of players who did very little training during the week in order to get up for gameday. As Selwyn Griffith noted in his Demonland interview, during the season players typically only get about 70% of the training load needed to maintain base fitness. Across the course of the season, those players carrying injuries likely had even less training loads and this would have accelerated the erosion of their base fitness. This consequence may not have been realised until the second half of the season. Additionally, we now know many players carried injuries into the finals, injuries that directly impacted on their ability to perform. 

 

Issues with our method became particularly evident in the back half of 2022: slow and predictable ball movement from D50, long and high kicks to the pocket in F50. Relatedly, personnel deficits were identified: elite decision-makers and ball users in defence and the mid-field and reliable key forwards (ideally with defensive skills). However, these personnel deficits and method issues were not the primary issue. The most proximal cause of our finals failings was lack of fitness. This is most compellingly evidenced by our team’s repeated deterioration in performance in the third and fourth quarters. In all but one game that we lost, we had led by at least twenty points after half-time. We went from the best fourth quarter team in 2021 to one of the worst in 2022. This pattern of performance degradation is unlikely to be explained by method or personnel alone - whereby we would expect a more evenly distributed level of performance across four quarters. More likely, as a consequence of fatigue, the ability to execute the ideal method was impaired, leading to stagnant offence and porous defence. 

 

The present

Entering 2023, a key focus needed to be optimising fitness. In this regard, Geelong’s change in approach from 2021 to 2022 serves as an obvious template to emulate. Consequently, we have seen more careful management of players (e.g. Hibberd). Time on ground (TOG) for key players has been reduced. Clearly, this reduces match day fatigue and quicker recovery. I wonder if this also allows for increased training loads on other days in the week. That is, by more evenly distributing training loads across the week, a great total may be achieved, minimising the aerobic fitness losses that occur during the season. 

 

At this stage of 2023, our fitness appears back to 2021 levels. We are again the best fourth quarter team. We’ve had a relatively low number of injuries and a near full list available for selection. Salem’s return from injury as his 2021 self – rather than the 2022 shadow – is further indication of a fitness team performing well behind the scenes. There’s been a lot of complaint about the lack of a proper bye and Griffith acknowledged this makes inserting periods of increased training loads into the season harder. I’m sceptical about the magnitude of this problem. Indeed, there may be benefits to our alternative fixture of multiple 9-10 day breaks. Either way, this year we have the benefit of learning from last years’ experience to optimise our mid-season training loads. In sum, the present state of our fitness seems favourable and augurs well.

 

Personnel deficits have partially been addressed. Lachie Hunter adds a second specialist winger to the team and a high-quality ball user. Judd McVee has become the lock-down small defender we’ve needed since Neville Jetta retired and is also superbly skilled. However, the key forward positions are still in flux. Tom McDonald and Ben Brown’s bodies are failing them just as the game is moving past them. JVR is adequately filling one of the key forward positions (and has enormous upside). Petty and/or Smith appear most likely to fill the other post/s. McDonald or Brown would need to re-find their best form to gain selection as the combination of JVR/Petty/Smith is seeming more attractive from the perspective of the forward line as a cohesive unit that is competitive in the air and on the ground. 

 

Brody Grundy has been an upgrade on Luke Jackson of 2022. However, we are not yet getting full value for the Gawn and Grundy combination. Grundy’s low TOG (often 68-69%) is interesting. Perhaps after a year out of football with consecutive lower limbs injuries his fitness is below his peak and his gameday load is being carefully managed. We will likely see greater output from Gawn and Grundy in 2024 if both can stay injury free and improve their cohesiveness. I see Gawn as Grundy potential premiership determiners in 2023. Thus far, they’ve been good without being great and so are not attracting a lot of opposition attention. However, if both are fit and Goodwin finds creative ways to exploit their strengths at the business end of the season, they will win games and the opposition will have little time to develop negating strategies. In short, our best 22 in 2023 is superior to our best 22 in 2022. 

 

Finally, our method. The past two games have shown we are essentially still working on the same method. The foundation of our game is winning contested ball and whole-of-team defensive press. Recent sightings of the 2023 Demon Press of Death (DPoD – credit @rpfc) has been heart-warming. Adaptations to our offensive play were particularly impressive in the pre-season and early rounds; quicker ball movement, looking to use the corridor and attacking the goals. Expect this to re-emerge as the season unfolds. At times (and particularly against Collingwood) we’ve seen better use of tempo football; go fast and take risks when the options are there, go slow and play the percentages when they are not. Striking the right balance must be incredibly hard to execute and take excellent coaching and much practice. Perfecting this element our game is an area to watch closely. 

 

The future

A significant limitation of this review is the one-sidedness; clearly there are 17 other teams striving to win a premiership and I lack the knowledge to conduct a similar evaluation of their prospects. Others will offer far greater insight into the opposition and I welcome their comments. Approaching this probabilistically, I estimate a 5% chance of the premiership being one by one of the teams currently outside the top four. Of the top four, Lions have the weakest claim, perhaps a 20% probability. I think we have a stronger claim than Pies and Port (I would say 30% probability) but I’m mindful of my personal biases and conclude the top three each have roughly a 25% chance of premiership success. 

 

Our ‘premiership trident’ appears sharp and strong. With the benefit of two extra years of conditioning into much the same personnel, our fitness may be better. With the additions of Hunter and Grundy, natural improvement of Rivers and Sparrow and appearance of McVee our personnel are slightly better than 2021. Our method appears sound…when correctly implemented. Combine our best defence with our best offence and we will finally see the Demons hold the premiership cup held aloft at the MCG in September!

(Apologies for the long post – though I did make sure it comes in 100 words less than Binman’s Act 2! Looking forward to Binman’s Act 3 which I will no doubt provide a more nuanced prediction of what will come for the remainder of the H&A season)

[binman 42,468]

Terrific post SD. Alot to unpack.

Very little to disagree with but - you've nailed it I reckon.

I really like your analysis of our 2022 season.

Personally, I had have the probability of us winning of 30%, 25% pies and lions, 15% port and 5% a team outside the top 4

I'm still on the fence a bit with port, think pies are overrated and think the lions have the advantage of a very experienced list who have played mutiple finals together- which has historically been a good recipe. That said tbey are too slow.

For port and the lions much will depend on whether they can get a home final week one, particularly the lions who would go into a week one final at the gabba after finisihing top or 2nd  favourite no matter who they play. 

I really hope the pies play them up there week one.

[DemonWA 3,928]

2 hours ago, binman said:

 

I'm still on the fence a bit with port.

Interestingly I see Port as the leading contender (noting its only June). Remind me alot of us in 2021 - everything is seemingly going their way, they play a good brand of footy and have strong mix of youth and experience across the ground. 

[Adam The God 30,026]

5 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Interestingly I see Port as the leading contender (noting its only June). Remind me alot of us in 2021 - everything is seemingly going their way, they play a good brand of footy and have strong mix of youth and experience across the ground. 

They have no sophisticated defenaice system though, so their game style is nothing like our 2021.

If anything IMV they are closer to our 2018 incarnation. They win contest and win the territory battle, so their lack of defensive system isn't exposed.

[DemonWA 3,928]

19 minutes ago, A F said:

They have no sophisticated defenaice system though, so their game style is nothing like our 2021.

If anything IMV they are closer to our 2018 incarnation. They win contest and win the territory battle, so their lack of defensive system isn't exposed.

Yeah, I guess there's no analysis to my observation other than the 'vibe'.  Won't use the 'eye test' descriptor incase people get triggered haha. 

[rpfc 28,220]

9 hours ago, DemonWA said:

Yeah, I guess there's no analysis to my observation other than the 'vibe'.  Won't use the 'eye test' descriptor incase people get triggered haha. 

You can look, but NOT FROM YOUR EYES

[rpfc 28,220]

I think that the season is wide open, all teams have issues to address, some bigger than others.

Coll are moths to the turnover flame by design and contested possession teams that trust each other can get through that. 

Port rely heavily on having the ball to defend, teams have run up scores on them as DemonWA alluded. 

We have our known issues with our forward mix and if teams slow our movement we can be pushed wide and shallow.

That said - I think we are the best chance if we can get top 2. Top 4 with an interstate final evens things out a bit.

The Lions have a scent of implosion and are inconsistent in application and desire.

Won’t go through the rest but this year has a clear path for a Bulldogs-style run through August and September to a flag from anywhere in the 8 IMO.

Who is most connected and healthy in the last two months?

[layzie 33,724]

On 6/17/2023 at 7:40 PM, speed demon said:

 

 

Given the bye this weekend, I thought I would give this thread a bump and submit a longer post for discussion.  @binman previously theorised the three most significant determinants of premiership success – fitness, quality of the list and relative ages, and luck with injury. He also cited coaching as the next most important determinant. I have adapted Binman’s formulation to be: personnel, fitness (incorporating injuries) and method (incorporating coaching). I neologise this three-pronged conceptual framework as ‘the trident’. I use ‘the trident’ as a lens to evaluate our recent past (i.e. 2018-22), present (i.e. mid-2023) and future (July-September 2023). I hope my thoughts are received as contributing to the passionate discussion about the team we love and I promise not to make a habit of such lengthy posts. Many thanks to the great insights of numerous Demonlanders who have shaped my views.

 

TLDR? Just skip to the last two paragraphs. 

 

The past

In the first half of September 2018 the Dees charged through Geelong and Hawthorn, announcing our re-emergence from our decennium horribilis. We had a core of high-quality mid-fielders (Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw), an attacking method and excellent fitness. In third week of September, our charge ended in an embarrassing collision with a blue and yellow wall precipitating a reality check; our list lacked a spread of premiership-quality players and a method that prevailed deep in September. 

 

Steven May was an astute addition to the team ahead of the 2019 season. May would partner with Jack Lever - recruited the season before – and control the opposition’s biggest key forward allowing Lever freedom to play interceptor. Unfortunately, May’s early experience mirrored the club’s more generally for 2019. With half the list afflicted with pre-season injuries - precluding players from optimising their fitness before the season – the year was essentially over before it begun. 

 

Ed Langdon’s recruitment prior to 2020 continued the trend of recruiting players to perform specific roles. Goodwin’s use of Langdon in 2020 rejuvenated the role of wingers in the modern game. Darren Burgess, high performance manager, was perhaps the most significant recruitment coming into 2020. That the Dees went from an unfit and injury-afflicted 17^th in 2019 to a fit and injury-free premiership in 2021 is perhaps attributable to the application of Burgess’ approach to fitness more than any other factor (link to short article with salient Burgess quotes below). 

https://www.afl.com.au/news/686425/fitness-guru-reveals-secret-to-dees-incredible-injury-free-run

 

In 2021, our core of high-quality to elite players had expanded to include May, Lever, Salem, Langdon, Fritsch, and were now supported by a stronger cast of role players. Key to this was the emergence of young talent in 2021 (e.g. Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Harrison Petty and Trent Rivers). Ben Brown was yet another excellent recruitment, playing a vital role in improving the structure of the forward line. With a list of quality players an in great fitness, Goodwin was able to implement a highly demanding game plan involving two-way running. The attacking flare of 2018 was matched with a whole-of-team defensive press that suffocated the opposition. A footballing syzygy had been achieved; the alignment of quality players, excellent fitness and a unique and comprehensive method yielded a convincing premiership.  

 

The focus of 2022 seemed to be to repeat 2021 in fitness, personnel and method. While the record books show we won our first ten games, issues were simmering under the surface. Numerous key players (especially defenders) sustained injuries in the pre- and early season. Many continued to play injured, perhaps as part of the Burgess philosophy of building physical resilience. Frequently we read reports of players who did very little training during the week in order to get up for gameday. As Selwyn Griffith noted in his Demonland interview, during the season players typically only get about 70% of the training load needed to maintain base fitness. Across the course of the season, those players carrying injuries likely had even less training loads and this would have accelerated the erosion of their base fitness. This consequence may not have been realised until the second half of the season. Additionally, we now know many players carried injuries into the finals, injuries that directly impacted on their ability to perform. 

 

Issues with our method became particularly evident in the back half of 2022: slow and predictable ball movement from D50, long and high kicks to the pocket in F50. Relatedly, personnel deficits were identified: elite decision-makers and ball users in defence and the mid-field and reliable key forwards (ideally with defensive skills). However, these personnel deficits and method issues were not the primary issue. The most proximal cause of our finals failings was lack of fitness. This is most compellingly evidenced by our team’s repeated deterioration in performance in the third and fourth quarters. In all but one game that we lost, we had led by at least twenty points after half-time. We went from the best fourth quarter team in 2021 to one of the worst in 2022. This pattern of performance degradation is unlikely to be explained by method or personnel alone - whereby we would expect a more evenly distributed level of performance across four quarters. More likely, as a consequence of fatigue, the ability to execute the ideal method was impaired, leading to stagnant offence and porous defence. 

 

The present

Entering 2023, a key focus needed to be optimising fitness. In this regard, Geelong’s change in approach from 2021 to 2022 serves as an obvious template to emulate. Consequently, we have seen more careful management of players (e.g. Hibberd). Time on ground (TOG) for key players has been reduced. Clearly, this reduces match day fatigue and quicker recovery. I wonder if this also allows for increased training loads on other days in the week. That is, by more evenly distributing training loads across the week, a great total may be achieved, minimising the aerobic fitness losses that occur during the season. 

 

At this stage of 2023, our fitness appears back to 2021 levels. We are again the best fourth quarter team. We’ve had a relatively low number of injuries and a near full list available for selection. Salem’s return from injury as his 2021 self – rather than the 2022 shadow – is further indication of a fitness team performing well behind the scenes. There’s been a lot of complaint about the lack of a proper bye and Griffith acknowledged this makes inserting periods of increased training loads into the season harder. I’m sceptical about the magnitude of this problem. Indeed, there may be benefits to our alternative fixture of multiple 9-10 day breaks. Either way, this year we have the benefit of learning from last years’ experience to optimise our mid-season training loads. In sum, the present state of our fitness seems favourable and augurs well.

 

Personnel deficits have partially been addressed. Lachie Hunter adds a second specialist winger to the team and a high-quality ball user. Judd McVee has become the lock-down small defender we’ve needed since Neville Jetta retired and is also superbly skilled. However, the key forward positions are still in flux. Tom McDonald and Ben Brown’s bodies are failing them just as the game is moving past them. JVR is adequately filling one of the key forward positions (and has enormous upside). Petty and/or Smith appear most likely to fill the other post/s. McDonald or Brown would need to re-find their best form to gain selection as the combination of JVR/Petty/Smith is seeming more attractive from the perspective of the forward line as a cohesive unit that is competitive in the air and on the ground. 

 

Brody Grundy has been an upgrade on Luke Jackson of 2022. However, we are not yet getting full value for the Gawn and Grundy combination. Grundy’s low TOG (often 68-69%) is interesting. Perhaps after a year out of football with consecutive lower limbs injuries his fitness is below his peak and his gameday load is being carefully managed. We will likely see greater output from Gawn and Grundy in 2024 if both can stay injury free and improve their cohesiveness. I see Gawn as Grundy potential premiership determiners in 2023. Thus far, they’ve been good without being great and so are not attracting a lot of opposition attention. However, if both are fit and Goodwin finds creative ways to exploit their strengths at the business end of the season, they will win games and the opposition will have little time to develop negating strategies. In short, our best 22 in 2023 is superior to our best 22 in 2022. 

 

Finally, our method. The past two games have shown we are essentially still working on the same method. The foundation of our game is winning contested ball and whole-of-team defensive press. Recent sightings of the 2023 Demon Press of Death (DPoD – credit @rpfc) has been heart-warming. Adaptations to our offensive play were particularly impressive in the pre-season and early rounds; quicker ball movement, looking to use the corridor and attacking the goals. Expect this to re-emerge as the season unfolds. At times (and particularly against Collingwood) we’ve seen better use of tempo football; go fast and take risks when the options are there, go slow and play the percentages when they are not. Striking the right balance must be incredibly hard to execute and take excellent coaching and much practice. Perfecting this element our game is an area to watch closely. 

 

The future

A significant limitation of this review is the one-sidedness; clearly there are 17 other teams striving to win a premiership and I lack the knowledge to conduct a similar evaluation of their prospects. Others will offer far greater insight into the opposition and I welcome their comments. Approaching this probabilistically, I estimate a 5% chance of the premiership being one by one of the teams currently outside the top four. Of the top four, Lions have the weakest claim, perhaps a 20% probability. I think we have a stronger claim than Pies and Port (I would say 30% probability) but I’m mindful of my personal biases and conclude the top three each have roughly a 25% chance of premiership success. 

 

Our ‘premiership trident’ appears sharp and strong. With the benefit of two extra years of conditioning into much the same personnel, our fitness may be better. With the additions of Hunter and Grundy, natural improvement of Rivers and Sparrow and appearance of McVee our personnel are slightly better than 2021. Our method appears sound…when correctly implemented. Combine our best defence with our best offence and we will finally see the Demons hold the premiership cup held aloft at the MCG in September!

(Apologies for the long post – though I did make sure it comes in 100 words less than Binman’s Act 2! Looking forward to Binman’s Act 3 which I will no doubt provide a more nuanced prediction of what will come for the remainder of the H&A season)

I like it, good job! 

Good point about the extra two years of conditioning. Sometimes this info is presented as if fitness starts from zero each pre season when in truth there can be compound effects from previous years work. The 2020 pre season was a massive change in the way we treated fitness and as a result the overall attitude and mentality it instilled in us. 

If Binman's Acts 1-3 are the official Star Wars movies then this one is Rogue One 🙂

 

I know people are mixed on new Star Wars movies but this line is purely meant as a compliment. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by layzie

[binman 42,468]

Rouge one is the second best Star Wars film in my humble.

Fantastic, and much underrated film

[binman 42,468]

2 hours ago, layzie said:

Good point about the extra two years of conditioning. Sometimes this info ins presented as if fitness starts from zero each pre season when in truth there can be compound effects from previous years work. The 2020 pre season was a massive change in the way we treated fitness and as a result the overall attitude and mentality it instilled in us. 

It is a good point.

Last year, in one of the discussions about loading, i can't recall which poster it was, but they noted exactly this point - aerobic and power capacity is iterative and takes years to build and that with a group progressing together they start the new season at a higher level than say team first embarking on their collective journey - so will get to a higher level again at the end of the new cycle. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by binman

[whatwhat say what 22,552]

41 minutes ago, binman said:

Rouge one is the second best Star Wars film in my humble.

Fantastic, and much underrated film

possibly surpassed by excellence of "andor", the only disney ploose star wars show that is truly excellent

 

[Adam The God 30,026]

Without derailing my favourite thread, pretty much all the new Star Wars films (aside from Rise of the Skywalker) are excellent IMO. And completely agree on Andor. It's superb.

I'm a bit like @binman in that I'm not as confident this week given where we likely are in our fitness regime, that said in the corresponding game last year, we spanked Brisbane.

I'd say it's likely our program is aligned differently this year as we have the three 10 day breaks, which absolutely make sense to go hard during the week on, so I'd expect us to be sluggish. 

However, Geelong's midfield is not what it was and without Dangerfield, I expect us to win the contest battle. I just hope our goal kicking accuracy doesn't cost us.

I think the second half of this season should be fascinating to see what tricks the FD have in terms of set ups and personnel.

I think the ball movement will naturally evolve and fix itself, providing we have continuity in our squad/team.

I expect that those players who occasionally slow us down on slingshot will become more confident and instinctive in moving the ball on successfully and if we get our fitness regime right, our players will be able to provide more options in these situations. 

The treating Geelong like an interstate game is great. I find it unusual that we've never tried that as a team before. It seems relatively logical as a way to team bond and ensure ultimate focus on the task at hand. I hope it pays off. 

This along with training to the GMHBA dimensions is giving us the best chance to succeed and I hope we continue to approach the second half of this season with a mentality of being flexible and inventive.

[binman 42,468]

19 minutes ago, A F said:

I'm a bit like @binman in that I'm not as confident this week given where we likely are in our fitness regime, that said in the corresponding game last year, we spanked Brisbane.

I'd say it's likely our program is aligned differently this year as we have the three 10 day breaks, which absolutely make sense to go hard during the week on, so I'd expect us to be sluggish. 

 

We did indeed.

And what is interesting about that win against the Lions (who i think were super fatigued by the way), is the similarities to this year:

• It was Round 15
• It was post bye for us (but unlike the Cats this year, was also post bye for the lions)
• It of course followed our round 13 Queens Birthday game against Collingwood
• They also inexplicably scheduled it on a Thursday night
• Which meant that, like this season, we only had 9-day bye break 

BUT there is one big difference to last year - this season there is an extra round.

The 2023 season started on the same date as the 2022 season (16 March).

And we played our last game in 2022 on 19 August.

The last round hasn't been set yet, but if we play the Swans on say the Saturday (we played the Lions on the Friday last year - but this season we play Hawks on the Sunday in round 23 so they surely won't give us a five-day break), that will mean our final game is on 26 August - a week later than last season. 

[deanox 9,892]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:28 PM, deanox said:

I don't know how relevant or reliable this date is, but if you look at our "total KMs" and "KMs at high speed" per game this year this is a distinct drop off in round 10-12 (so starting from the Port game).

So there are lots of factors that would influence this stat: size of ground, style of play, weather, opposition game style, length of break, travel, accumulated fatigue etc. 

It could be an indicator that we increased some load that week. I'll be interested to watch these stats in the coming weeks to see if there are any trends.

 

Round - Total KMs - KMs at high speed

R1 288 43

R2 293 35

R3 284 44

R4 276 40

R5 289 43

R6 283 43

R7 294 45

R8 292 43

R9 284 47

R10 273 36

R11 276 37

R12 272 40

Data is available on the AFL app under "Tracker", including opposition data.

Sorry I'm on my phone so can't graph nicely!

 

On 6/6/2023 at 10:52 PM, Watson11 said:

These were the high speed numbers in 21 and 22. We did not drop off at all in 2021

Update.

 

Round - Total KMs - KMs at high speed

R1 288 43

R2 293 35

R3 284 44

R4 276 40

R5 289 43

R6 283 43

R7 294 45

R8 292 43

R9 284 47

R10 273 36

R11 276 37

R12 272 40

R13 267 37

R14 - Bye ?

 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Summary of Sando's review of tonight's match... (presently in bed on some pretty strong meds inc. endo so pls excuse if i say a few daft &/or obvious unnecessary things here).

> No Guthrie, Selwood or Danger this time around vs same match last year where the Cats won the clearances convingly 54 - 36

> Should see the Demons with a decent edge going in through the middle should the tap bros get on top & give more first looks.

The clearance battle &, in particular,  front half turnovers had a big say over the Pies

Cats are also a front half team with this aspect pivotal to their game.

Cats in general are struggling to put form together.  Trying to put out a number of spot fires from week to week.

Eg;  They were smashed at stoppage vs the Power 26 - 9 resulting in 6 goals to 1 from this source (stats related to 2nd half only?)

If the Demons can replicate the pressure, front half turnovers & score off this it could end up a one sided affair.

Countering this is how well Geelong play this ground and their record here.  However, feels the Melb system should see us get up.

> May to go to Hawkins

> Petty takes Cameron

> Allows Lever to play the swing man role

> Stanley & Blicavs are critical in terms of trying to neautralise Gawn & Grundy, particularly if Gawn drops back like he did against the Pies

> The Cats very good at limiting inside 50s against.  No.1 in comp here.

> Challenge for the Cats will be to find other avenues to goal if May & Petty keep the two big guns relatively quiet.

> Were fanatical & ruthless around the ball last season.  Not so much so far & Cats will need to somehow find this edge tonight to give themselves a chance.

> Defensively,  last season they would keep oppos to a pretty low score.  Jumped this season ave 85 points which will see you losing most games.

> Their reliance on Stewart to give them momentum is pretty skewed vs last year where it was heavily skewed towards their mid field performing.

Sees Melbourne winning comfortably

Edited June 22, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[BangBnagBang 664]

On 6/10/2023 at 11:57 PM, deanox said:

I'm in redlegs, Level 2 Punt Rd end directly behind the goals. I've sat there as standard as long as I can remember.

The view of the structures and zone moving up the field, how it shifts side to side, and even how we lengthen it at times, is really clear there.

 

Against Carlton was a mile ahead of anything else I've seen us do this year. I was surprised to see the pressure rating low because of how well we were constantly setting up, shifting and forcing them to just stop. I guess that running hard to space to set up a defensive zone doesn't qualify as a  "pressure act" for the purpose of preasure points because it isn't about directly pressuring the ball carrier.

I wasn't surprised that Goody was happy with what he saw. 

 

Last time I sat on the true wing I was really frustrated. It's better than TV, but it is so hard to see what's happening with shape.

Someone explained it the other day, maybe on the ESPNFooty Pod, but when one team has a low pressure rating the other team pressure rating will also be lower as a result. Something about if the oppo's pressure is low you dont turn it over as much therefore dont pressure as much to win it back and your rating is low as a result.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

We have too many small forwards and out best key forward is playing for Casey.

We should have no more than two of:

- Pickett

- Chandler

- Spargo

- ANF

I would much rather have Smith, Brown, JVR, Fritsch and a resting ruckman than an ineffectual snall forward brigade like we have seen tonight.

 

 

 

[Adam The God 30,026]

I think the players we have need to execute better. Simple as thst. They're creating enough chances.

Just a little thing on Melbourne at Geelong, when May kicks out to the flank, we get to the foot of the contest and Geelong stand 15m from the foot of it. Geelong get it to ground and either smother our guys at the foot or the ball pings out to those 15m put Geelong players.

Happened last year and happened a lot tonight. It ends up with an uncontested Geelong player having the ball at 60-55m and having to hit up a simple short chip inside 50.

We did adjust to this, but it took us a while and it cost us early.

[Garbo 1,517]

1 hour ago, Clint Bizkit said:

We have too many small forwards and out best key forward is playing for Casey.

We should have no more than two of:

- Pickett

- Chandler

- Spargo

- ANF

I would much rather have Smith, Brown, JVR, Fritsch and a resting ruckman than an ineffectual snall forward brigade like we have seen tonight.

 

 

 

More talls wouldn’t help tonight, our players just didn’t adapt for conditions where marking is going to be hard. Lowering the eyes or moving the ball more directly so our smalls can get it out the back without the other teaming having time to setup

[Redleg 40,776]

I have a good idea, play dry weather footy in the wet, it always works.

Don't get distance with a kick, which might get the ball coming quickly on the ground inside F50, giving the small forwards a chance, no, handball until you lose it and it goes the other way, with that quick kick forwards.

Bloody dumb. Great coaching, great decision making.

[rpfc 28,220]

8 hours ago, A F said:

I think the players we have need to execute better. Simple as thst. They're creating enough chances.

Just a little thing on Melbourne at Geelong, when May kicks out to the flank, we get to the foot of the contest and Geelong stand 15m from the foot of it. Geelong get it to ground and either smother our guys at the foot or the ball pings out to those 15m put Geelong players.

Happened last year and happened a lot tonight. It ends up with an uncontested Geelong player having the ball at 60-55m and having to hit up a simple short chip inside 50.

We did adjust to this, but it took us a while and it cost us early.

They are not creating good chances against the best teams. It’s not simply ‘executing’ better in the 50. We don’t get it deep, and the amount of times we wait for Gawn to setup down there leads one to believe that we are bereft of ideas and forward options, especially ones we want to move the ball quickly to.

[Adam The God 30,026]

57 minutes ago, rpfc said:

They are not creating good chances against the best teams. It’s not simply ‘executing’ better in the 50. We don’t get it deep, and the amount of times we wait for Gawn to setup down there leads one to believe that we are bereft of ideas and forward options, especially ones we want to move the ball quickly to.

We got it deep plenty of times last night. The majority of entries were deep. But yes, we couldn't get it to 1v1s often enough.

Geelong played a very high line with no goalkeeper from defensive stoppages, but had extra numbers at the contest to chain out or clear the area.

[Jaded No More 68,835]

The idea that Gawn is a forward, is quite frankly, dead wrong.

The Gawn Grundy ruck combo is giving many hitouts to no advantage vibe. It is not working currently.