Jump to content

  • Podcast: Draft Wrap Up w/Jason Taylor  

Sign in to follow this  
Lucifer's Hero

List Profiles

Recommended Posts

Club Profiles and Rankings

image.png.adcff937b1362ca23d9530d1cc971f1f.png

Not sure the average age per se means a lot but the profile by age group is interesting.

We have the 2nd highest number of players  in the age group 'sweet-spot' of 22-26yo.  Second only to Bulldogs who have 22. 

Surprisingly, we have the equal fewest (13) of 18-20 yo so being ranked as the 14th youngest is a bit of a quirk of averages.  If the number of players under 20 is a guide we can no longer say we are a 'young' team. 

image.png.b25715b9a0351f9aa4880cfde533162d.png

While we have the equal highest number of players (17) in the experience 'sweet-spot' of 51-150 games we are still relatively inexperienced as we have very few (3) with >150 games.  Interesting that the recent consistent finalists have 9-12 players there.

It is interesting to see the bulldogs also have 17 in the 51-150 group with 10 of those having 101-150 games.  When combined with their players in the age group 'sweet-spot, it wouldn't surprise to see them feature well into the finals. 

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Club Profiles and Rankings

image.png.adcff937b1362ca23d9530d1cc971f1f.png

Not sure the average age per se means a lot but the profile by age group is interesting.

We have the 2nd highest number of players  in the age group 'sweet-spot' of 22-26yo.  Second only to Bulldogs who have 22. 

Surprisingly, we have the equal fewest (13) of 18-20 yo so being ranked as the 14th youngest is a bit of a quirk of averages.  If the number of players under 20 is a guide we can no longer say we are a 'young' team. 

image.png.b25715b9a0351f9aa4880cfde533162d.png

While we have the equal highest number of players (17) in the experience 'sweet-spot' of 51-150 games we are still relatively inexperienced as we have very few (3) with >150 games.  Interesting that the recent consistent finalists have 9-12 players there.

It is interesting to see the bulldogs also have 17 in the 51-150 group with 10 of those having 101-150 games.  When combined with their players in the age group 'sweet-spot, it wouldn't surprise to see them feature well into the finals. 

Love your work, Luci, but you've said "We have the 2nd highest number of players  in the age group 'sweet-spot' of 22-26yo.  Second only to Bulldogs who have 22." By my reading of the table, St Kilda is top with 24 and we're second with 22. Or am I reading it wrong? 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Love your work, Luci, but you've said "We have the 2nd highest number of players  in the age group 'sweet-spot' of 22-26yo.  Second only to Bulldogs who have 22." By my reading of the table, St Kilda is top with 24 and we're second with 22. Or am I reading it wrong? 

Correct!  We are second highest to the saints.  My eyes/brain didn't connect too well with the fingers doing the typing 🙂

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting to see Norf trade away this year's 1st rounder when they have that mature age profile.  I don't expect them to challenge for the flag any time soon.  Wonder what they are thinking?

Geelong are staring at the mother of all rebuilds.  They have 3 2020 Ist rounders.

Hawthorn betting the farm on Clarkson and their foreign legion of traded in players.

Collingwood running out of flag runway too.

Brisbane and the Dogs look well placed for an assault on the summit.

Edited by Fifty-5
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wasn't that long ago that Richmond looked cooked, with the same eight or so players filling out their top ten year after year and getting older and older.

The thing about older players is - they've been testes and found, if not excellent, at least credible AFL standard.

When a team with a good block of players of that standard then manages to add an extra later in a rush - that is when a truly dominant team appears.

It's not a coincidence that Rioli and Selwood won premierships in their respective debut years.  And it also isn't a coincidence that many premiership teams have some form of 'fairytale of the kid going big'.

The way I see it, an older profile just means the clock is ticking on getting that extra surge before your existing group starts whittling away. 

All that a young age profile tells you is that there's a lot of potential improvement, but also potential flatlining!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

The thing about older players is - they've been testes

I don't know where to begin ...

  • Haha 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Wasn't that long ago that Richmond looked cooked, with the same eight or so players filling out their top ten year after year and getting older and older.

The thing about older players is - they've been testes and found, if not excellent, at least credible AFL standard.

 

There's one main reason Richmond have won those 2 flags - Dusty.

No Dusty = no flags.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fifty-5 said:

There's one main reason Richmond have won those 2 flags - Dusty.

No Dusty = no flags.

Generally speaking, when you have the best player in the league..................it helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

There's one main reason Richmond have won those 2 flags - Dusty.

No Dusty = no flags.

I could've replaced Dusty this year and they still would've won it.

They lost Rance, moved Grimes in to his spot and didn't miss a beat.

Mid season they decide there's no longer room for him in the forward line and move Caddy on to a wing. They move a young small forward flanker in Baker to a sweeping defender spot. Shane Edwards and the undrafted Stack held down the back flanks for a while without Short and Houli. They  play Cotchin at half fitness because they can. They play 2 rucks off the bench, 50/50 game time each because they can. They debut a guy in a grand final, because they can!

The way they pressure without losing their shape behind the ball is incredible.

The way they run with the ball and forward handball is amazing.

They way they have 22 fit and fast athletes ready to perform to their best is off the charts. It's way more than just Dusty.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

image.thumb.png.9503232367e60b5cfa0d327771bb00d8.png

Note that each club has a different number of players on their lists which makes looking at raw numbers a little misleading i.e. Esse has 42 vs GC with 49. I have transformed the numbers into proportions which while still not perfect helps with comparisons.

Age, games played and capability are important factors in determining the potential of a playing list now and into the future. 

Age profile (driving strength & maturity): If you have a list with a higher proportion of players 27+ years of age you want to be challenging for a flag before you tip over the edge and need to bottom out to get youth in. Geel, WC, North, Coll, Rich, Port, Hawt, and GC lead in that order. For North and GC, this is a concerning given they aren't playing finals and certainly not challenging for a flag. Perhaps this is part of the reason North were happy to get multiple 2020 draft picks in from Melb in exchange for their round 1 2019 pick

The Saints, Melb, Bris, and Carlton lead in the combined 18-25 year range in that order. Being in this range should suggest you are an up and coming team assuming recruiting, coaching and development are aligned. It seems that teams in this space can have a breakout year that defies their profile but doesn't happen consistently until the list ages e.g. Melb prelim, Bris prelim, perhaps Bulldogs flag

Games profile (driving experience & know how): The age of your list will often drive the number of games your list plays. Players like Mitch Brown who are older but have played fewer games are pretty rare and seem to be rookies/depth players. Although despite having the 2nd lowest group 26 years or under we have the 7th highest games played in the combined 51 games or more group. Having not had much success and many quality senior players to hold our youth back in the past may be a positive in the future

Draft profile (driving talent & capability): While age and games have an important role in list profiles, having high end draft selection to get A and B graders coming through the door is also critical. Picks 1 to 7 tend to play a significantly greater number of games than those from 8-20 which plateau, with further drops after that. Which is why teams looking to reshape their lists tend to push some of their quality older players out the door to get quality picks for a rebuild. It would have been good chart the proportions of players to be selected in different draft rounds across clubs but I don't have the data (i.e. round 1, 2, 3 rookie etc) but suffice to say we have had a healthy number of high end draft picks

Overall: Experience which belies your age is the ideal mix when complemented with high end drafting. So while we have a relatively youthful list which often means you are only capable of a breakout year, hopefully our relatively high experience and talent will lead to sustained success before our time is due. Fluctuations (particularly for emerging teams) can also be driven by fixtures (based on the ladder position of the prior year) and injury levels (less depth)

Edited by Demons1858
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Wasn't that long ago that Richmond looked cooked, with the same eight or so players filling out their top ten year after year and getting older and older.

The thing about older players is - they've been testes and found, if not excellent, at least credible AFL standard.

 

 

Touch unkind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

I could've replaced Dusty this year and they still would've won it.

They lost Rance, moved Grimes in to his spot and didn't miss a beat.

Mid season they decide there's no longer room for him in the forward line and move Caddy on to a wing. They move a young small forward flanker in Baker to a sweeping defender spot. Shane Edwards and the undrafted Stack held down the back flanks for a while without Short and Houli. They  play Cotchin at half fitness because they can. They play 2 rucks off the bench, 50/50 game time each because they can. They debut a guy in a grand final, because they can!

The way they pressure without losing their shape behind the ball is incredible.

The way they run with the ball and forward handball is amazing.

They way they have 22 fit and fast athletes ready to perform to their best is off the charts. It's way more than just Dusty.

No Dusty = no flag is a gross over simplification but he is their match winner and I think they struggle to make top 4 without him and from there it gets much harder.

Richmond can run ahead of the ball with confidence because of their incredibly cohesive back 6, proven even without Rance and because they use the ball so effectively going forward.  No-one who plays an inside game can touch Dusty in this, the only recent example is G.Ablett jnr, and that has been the cornerstone of Richmond's attacking style.  He is ably assisted by Edwards, Lambert and Cotchin.

I do think that replace Dusty with Dangerfield or Fyfe and they still win. It's not completely clear if the reverse is true for Geelong and it's obviously not true for Freo.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that Dusty is the key to it all for Richmond and that, without him, they probably don’t win 2 flags. But my rationale is different. 

Richmond have a very defensive game style that revolves around always having numbers behind the ball. They then pick players that can run and tackle, plus bob up for the occasional goal .... but they only need a very modest offensive contribution from them because they are usually outnumbered in attack.

This game plan means that it’s difficult to score. But they were top 4 in scores against, even without their best defender in Rance. They’ve been top 4 defensively since 2016 (when they only won 8 games). 

What Dusty does is allow them to score with a defensive game plan. He can beat multiple opponents and turn half chances into goals. He can burst out of congestion and create a goal. And when you are so miserly in defence, with players always set up behind the ball, each goal is more valuable.

To illustrate the point, I’ve listed Dusty’s goals each season for the past 5 seasons, along with Richmond’s wins below.

2019- 32 goal, 17 wins

2018- 31 goals, 19 wins

2017- 37 goals, 18 wins

2016- 9 goals, 8 wins

2015- 24 goals, 15 wins

Riewoldt also allows them to score, because he can beat multiple opponents and, sometimes, Lynch can. But, whilst the defenders are admirable and do an excellent job, without Dusty and Riewoldt Richmond wouldn’t be in the premiership class.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Social Media

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    BACK IN STYLE by Whispering Jack

    From the moment when the Elton John character in the movie “Rocketman” burst into its opening scene dressed as a flamboyant demon on his way to an addiction rehabilitation session, the game was on. Here was yet another film about a person gifted with a meteoric rise to stardom finding coke, booze and a hedonistic lifestyle that led directly to a destructive crash into the abyss. Ultimately, these stories end in total disaster (“A Star is Born”, “Bohemian Rhapsody”, “Judy”) but this one resulted

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2019

    PART ONE - OVERTURE  I have a disclaimer at the outset. I’m not a fan of the races - be they horses or motors of any kind. Once the final siren sounds on the football season, I find the month or so that follows and corresponds roughly with the Spring Racing Carnival to be the most boring time of the year for sports fans. You turn on the radio and you’re confronted by the monotonous drone of a self-proclaimed racing expert or by the nasally twang of an ex-jockey banging on about the equine p

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 8

    CHANGES 2019 by The Oracle

    PART 1 - IT’S A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THIS TIME This year’s free agency, trade and draft period will see the usual drama and upheaval as the AFL’s 18 clubs seek to better their lists in order to challenge for finals and possibly premiership honours. Long before the final siren sounded on the season just over a week ago, the maneuvering was under way with player agents and clubs discussing possible player movements and in some cases, deals had already been done.  Yesterday, the r

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features 2

    HOW FAR SOUTH? by George on the Outer

    It was appropriate that Melbourne was playing its last game of season 2019 in Hobart.  After all, how much further south could the team go? And much as it has done in many of the previous 22 games, the side managed to extract a loss from a winning position by simply giving the ball back to the opposition time and time again. In fact, they gave it back to the opposition to the tune of 53 points from turnovers while, by way of contrast North Melbourne contributed  only 17 points to their oppo

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    COOKED by The Oracle

    I can vividly remember when the Demons ventured onto Blundstone Arena for the first time in early 2016 only to lose to the Kangaroos by 20.11.131 to 21.10.136.    Melbourne was then a team on the up and up: young, enthusiastic and bold. It gave up a huge quarter time deficit after kicking against a strong wind but made that up by half time and fell dramatically short after an exciting high scoring affair.  The team lost no fans that day - they were willing to take the game on and attac

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    HELP by KC rom Casey

    The Casey Demons finished off their home and away season against Frankston at Skybus Stadium on Sunday with a narrow, unconvincing 6-point victory that left the door slightly open for a top eight berth when the VFL finals begin in a fortnight’s time. While sunny skies prevailed over Frankston in the morning, the skies became overcast by noon and heavy waves pounded the bay nearby as the rains came in to greet the players as the game started. And conditions stayed dark and dreary for the rem

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THANKS BUT NO THANKS by George on the Outer

    Thanks, but no thanks! In a round where the club was supposed to thank their fans for the support during the year, the Melbourne Football Club chose to do otherwise with a 53 point loss to a team that sat 15th on the ladder.  Don’t give us cheap jumpers that can’t be sold in the Demon shop.  Don’t give us vouchers to shop there, give us something on the field, which is why we come to the football in the first place. It was a disgraceful performance, which started with a disgracefu

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    SLEEP OUT AT THE MCG by The Oracle

    Around about 12 months ago Melbourne and Sydney fought out an epic battle between two top eight teams fighting for the best possible ladder position in the lead up to the finals. The Swans triumphed by 9 points at the MCG after the Demons came back from five goals down at three quarter time. But for its poor kicking for goal, Melbourne might well have won the game and finished in the top four. Who knows what might then have happened for the club in September? As a consequence, the person re

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    A LITTLE RAY OF SUNSHINE by KC from Casey

    Two clubs that have been hard hit by injury recently took part in a dour battle under dark clouds and, with intermittent showers falling, it wasn’t a pretty game at Victoria Park on Sunday. Despite all that, the Casey Demons added a little ray of sunshine to their day to get the job done over a "traditional" rival with a 15 point victory over Collingwood VFL that breathed life back into their season. There were a few highlights at the ground that in past days has seen many titanic batt

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THE RETRO ROUND by George on the Outer

    We have seen it all before… Yes, a wonderful idea to showcase what used to be in football.  Big crowds, umpires who knew how to apply the rules and not opinions, high marks, skilful players. But for the Melbourne supporters their retro is what it has been like for the past 10 years. Losing games, end on end, year after year.  Opportunities squandered in front of goal. VFL standard players running around at the MCG. Just more of the same, and the game against Collingwood was no ex

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE PEOPLE SPEAK by The Demonland Crew

    Thanks to Demonlanders for their input into this week’s preview. Ralphius Maximus is short and bittersweet: We'll crack in at the bounce to create a contest, win our share of the ball, butcher the forward movement and get scored on easily from the intercepts. Not that hard to predict. Big Demon says: Unfortunately Collingwood will win because they have a lot more to play for. We will be good in parts but really the season is well over so we will have to put up with those bell

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    WHAT, NO BLOOD? by George on the Outer

    The feeling when turning up to the MCG on a Saturday night to play a top four side in Richmond, while the Melbourne sits cemented in close proximity to the bottom of the table is like attending the Colosseum in Ancient Roman times. The expectation is that a bloodbath is about to occur. There are 100,000 Richmond members and 50,000 Melbourne members, and despite the fact that it turned out to be a wet night after half-time, a crowd of only 37K bothered to turn up. That should never have happ

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

×
×
  • Create New...