Assuming we win the next three (no guarantees) we should be sitting somewhere in the lower end of the eight. From there on it is very difficult. We have have a couple of 'gimmees' and as you know, they are never gimmees with the Dees. We have many top 8 sides and teams like the Bulldogs, who are starting to find their mojo. Eagles in Perth, Port in Adelaide, the Crows twice, in Adelaide and NT, Freo in NT, Geelong at Geelong, Giants, Collingwood, Swans. We are going to have to be a better side than we are now to make the finals. We will have to knock off a few sides against the flow. I am not feeling that confident after our patchy and unconvincing start. If we make it I'll be pleased and surprised.

Edited May 5, 20186 yr by btdemon

Interesting writeup in The Hun today. We might be travelling a bit better than you think. 

9 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

Interesting writeup in The Hun today. We might be travelling a bit better than you think. 

Link?

 

I was looking at some of the key league statistics on the AFL ap last night (yeah, I know a big Satty night) and I was surprised how well we were doing statistically.

We struggle in rebound 50s but only because we're so on top for inside 50s. Our tackle stats are good and we average more inside 50 tackles than Richmond, which is surprising.

But we're dead last for kicks, which could be a symptom of being excellent in contested possessions and tackles.

The area for me that is telling is ironically a statistic that I usually completely disregard, however it is the only explanation here. Our team disposal efficiency is terrible. Use the ball better and we can convert our dominance into wins. 

Edited May 5, 20186 yr by A F

2 minutes ago, A F said:

I was looking at some of the key league statistics on the AFL ap last night (yeah, I know a big Satty night) and I was surprised how well we were doing statistically.

We struggle in rebound 50s but only because we're so on top for inside 50s. Our tackle stats are good and we average more inside 50 tackles than Richmond, which is surprising.

But we're dead last for kicks, which could be a symptom of being excellent in contested possessions and tackles.

The area for me that is telling is ironically a statistic that I usually completely disregard, however it is the only explanation here. Our team disposal efficiency is terrible. Use the ball better and we can convert our dominance into wins. 

Essendon's handball to kick ratio was incredibly bad yesterday. With the moving press there is not time for the ring a rosy handballs of the past simply because in that time the kick receiver is covered. Hard to fix it if you have a majority of players who have problems with the kick under pressure. Exhibit 1 Salem's kick from full back last week when called to play on.

As usual its behind a pay wall. 

The run from here ? - tough 

every game is winnable - every game is loseable

18 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Essendon's handball to kick ratio was incredibly bad yesterday. With the moving press there is not time for the ring a rosy handballs of the past simply because in that time the kick receiver is covered. Hard to fix it if you have a majority of players who have problems with the kick under pressure. Exhibit 1 Salem's kick from full back last week when called to play on.

It's all about game style though. Hawthorn still tries to control the game by kicking and maintaining posession that way, but we are more about winning the clearances and locking the ball inside our forward 50.

Our game style takes a lot of the guess work out of our ball movement and pressure on the kicker isn't such a problem.

Getting it out of defensive 50 is easier if we adjust our kicking game from the goal square. Use a combination of short kicks and then switching the ball (which we did a lot better in the dry conditions last week) to clear the defensive zone.

1 hour ago, A F said:

It's all about game style though. Hawthorn still tries to control the game by kicking and maintaining posession that way, but we are more about winning the clearances and locking the ball inside our forward 50.

Our game style takes a lot of the guess work out of our ball movement and pressure on the kicker isn't such a problem.

Getting it out of defensive 50 is easier if we adjust our kicking game from the goal square. Use a combination of short kicks and then switching the ball (which we did a lot better in the dry conditions last week) to clear the defensive zone.

understand but it carries with it the kick to a contest theme and you rely upon the scrum to push it forward and then lock it in.

The risk/ reward equation is not there at present. Will be very interested in the success ratio over the next three weeks. Vastly outnumbering the opposition on forward 50 entries is a wonderful stat but it is tiring and mentally sapping if it is not accompanied by some reward on the scoreboard.

50 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

understand but it carries with it the kick to a contest theme and you rely upon the scrum to push it forward and then lock it in.

The risk/ reward equation is not there at present. Will be very interested in the success ratio over the next three weeks. Vastly outnumbering the opposition on forward 50 entries is a wonderful stat but it is tiring and mentally sapping if it is not accompanied by some reward on the scoreboard.

I'd back most of our players in to win one on one's. That's why a guy like Jack Watts would not fit into our system. He rarely wins one on one's.

Agree with your second paragraph though DJ, but it also goes to my point about team efficiency. We get back to scoring more efficiently and we become a top 6 team and we really trouble teams like Hawthorn and Richmond.

Both of those games saw us with all the early momentum, but an inability to hit the scoreboard in any meaningful way by kicking straight.

Tom McDonald's inclusion cannot be underestimated in this respect. He completely straightens us up. He provides structural balance and he rarely misses shots on goal.

Edited May 6, 20186 yr by A F

The forward press we are adopting may go some way to explaining why Jeff Garlett is not having the impact he had in recent seasons.

Many of his goals are the one on one over the back relying on space and speed. Perhaps the game plan is better suited by a player like Hannan.

Would hate to see Jeff go the way of Dunn and Garland.

 

5 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The forward press we are adopting may go some way to explaining why Jeff Garlett is not having the impact he had in recent seasons.

Many of his goals are the one on one over the back relying on space and speed. Perhaps the game plan is better suited by a player like Hannan.

Would hate to see Jeff go the way of Dunn and Garland.

 

Jeffy's poor games, (Hawthorn and Richmond) coincided with beltings where we couldn't get clean ball into the forward 50. I wouldn't have dropped him because he is so potent, but then Hannan, Spargo have been great. Fritsch is special and i'd like to see him on the wing. His delivery is beautiful.

24 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The forward press we are adopting may go some way to explaining why Jeff Garlett is not having the impact he had in recent seasons.

Many of his goals are the one on one over the back relying on space and speed. Perhaps the game plan is better suited by a player like Hannan.

Would hate to see Jeff go the way of Dunn and Garland.

 

It's also up to Jeffy to adapt to the game style. He was ordinary in those games because he didn't work hard enough to hunt the opposition.

Just looked up the remaining matches - I'm locking us in for a 10 win run from today and then a 2 losses at Geelong and Adelaide another 2 wins and then a loss in WA against the Eagles and a final round gala match v GWS at the G.

Anyone else share my optimism?

4 hours ago, Danelska said:

Just looked up the remaining matches - I'm locking us in for a 10 win run from today and then a 2 losses at Geelong and Adelaide another 2 wins and then a loss in WA against the Eagles and a final round gala match v GWS at the G.

Anyone else share my optimism?

On that reckoning we end up with 15 wins + GWS 50/50.  Based on last year that lands us somewhere between 1st and 3rd on the ladder!  Happy days!

   - We have 8 games vs sides below us on the ladder.   We should win those but history says we will probably drop a couple.  Lets say win 6 of the 8.

   - And the other 7 games vs Adelaide x 2, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, WCE and GWS I count as 50/50.  If half of those go our way that is 3/4 wins. 

So I reckon 13 or 14 wins.  The games vs Port, Sydney and Collingwood are shaping as 8 point games and will determine how far we go into the 8. 

So yeah, I share your optimism but to be on the safe side I will now go back to thinking 'one week at a time'...?

Well we are 4-3 despite not really clicking yet and still have a bunch of players out of form.  Our general Viney hasn't played a minute yet.

All things considered we are in  a great position to launch not just at the top 8 but at the top 4.

Over to you, Melbourne.

So far we’ve beaten 

North currently in 7th, 4 wins

Bombers in 15th, 2 wins

Saints in 16th, 1 win and 1 draw

Lions in 17th, 0 wins

6th - 11th are all on 16 points. 

All things considered I think we have quite a good draw, all teams cop interstate travel and so far this year Sydney, Adelaide, West Coast and Geelong have all copped home losses.

 

Realistically

2 losses to adelaide

loss to port, wce and probably freo (even though they were pus today), SYDNEY, cats, pies 

 

win against gws and others

miss the 8 and rue Max's r1 miss and hawks tigers floggings and not flogging bombers saints

the run to the bye has always been the key to our success.

Turning at 7-4 is a minimum as 6 wins in the second half of the season will be great. 13 wins gets you 7-8

We can still turn at 8-3 and ride our luck with say 7 wins and maybe push for top 4.

Today and the next two games is the softest part of our draw.

Adelaide up north is a very big game as is the QB match.

Let’s just focus on what could be a tricky road trip to Brisbane, followed by a game against a side we invariably struggle against, first. 

3 hours ago, timbo said:

Realistically

2 losses to adelaide

loss to port, wce and probably freo (even though they were pus today), SYDNEY, cats, pies 

 

win against gws and others

miss the 8 and rue Max's r1 miss and hawks tigers floggings and not flogging bombers saints

Based on yesterday’s evidence and our good record in Adelaide we should beat Port. Sydney & Geelong are both gettable too as are the Eagles. Jury out on Collingwood they’ve started well but not sure they’ll continue that run.

4 hours ago, Goffer said:

Based on yesterday’s evidence and our good record in Adelaide we should beat Port. Sydney & Geelong are both gettable too as are the Eagles. Jury out on Collingwood they’ve started well but not sure they’ll continue that run.

Agree re SYDNEY and Geelong - I think pretty much any team is gettable if a side with Viney plays for 4 quarters with no stranglew$$$nk and no going to sleep for a quarter (both traits lurking below the surface - still to scarred to trust them). 

 

Think Geelong have our measure, they're still a bonza side. Think The same for Sydney. 

 

QBH is the key. Lock away everyone's LR Evoque and ski lodge keys to make sure we're there. 

Eagles look hot to trot but hard to tell from over here

22 hours ago, Mr Steve said:

Interesting writeup in The Hun today. We might be travelling a bit better than you think. 

Haven't seen the Hun article, but I suspect the content in the below is either the same or makes similar point.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-tipping-experts-round-7-afl-teams-fox-footy-commentators-blowtorch-questions/news-story/07763614389e8928927a90aef92ce9de

This is what I've been saying for weeks.  Despite a crap game against the Hawks and average-poor game Vs the Tigers, that we are playing far below our best, but still getting the job done and racking up the four points (be it mostly against poor teams) is a good sign for when we start playing well.  Though I don't take too much away from wins against teams like the Bombers and the Saints, at least we are getting the four points, which we might not have in seasons past and they all count the same at the end of the season.  I also think based on the form of the respective teams the wins against North and the Lions now look much better than they did at the time.

22 hours ago, btdemon said:

Assuming we win the next three (no guarantees) we should be sitting somewhere in the lower end of the eight. From there on it is very difficult. We have have a couple of 'gimmees' and as you know, they are never gimmees with the Dees. We have many top 8 sides and teams like the Bulldogs, who are starting to find their mojo. Eagles in Perth, Port in Adelaide, the Crows twice, in Adelaide and NT, Freo in NT, Geelong at Geelong, Giants, Collingwood, Swans. We are going to have to be a better side than we are now to make the finals. We will have to knock off a few sides against the flow. I am not feeling that confident after our patchy and unconvincing start. If we make it I'll be pleased and surprised.

We are presently playing far below our best, but starting to find some form again after loosing our way against the Hawks and Tigers.  I recon Viney back will be huge tipping point once he's up and back in full flight.

If we can't beat most of the sides presently above us in the remainder of the home and away, I don't want to make finals.

TMac in, Gus firing,  Oliver Hogan and Petracca firing - AND Viney to come in. The light at the end of the tunnel is no longer the headlights of an oncoming train. 

The issue is that apart from Carlton, every team has played some decent footy and only Richmond have any consistency. Each week is a nightmare for tipping and form seems to be more quarter-by-quarter than game-by-game. The QB clash against the Filth will be pivotal.

IF we are to play finals, the last 5 rounds are the most important to me. We need to find increasing form 5 games in a row to build momentum for the finals. Looking at Adelaide (A), Gold Coast (H), Sydney(H), West Coast(A) and Giants(H) I see a really difficult path to the finals, maybe winning only 2 of these but we might snatch the Sydney game.