A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Just now, Macca said:

Looks like Shoals could be set for Royal Ascot now. 

A dominant win against some very likely types.  The 3rd placegetter would have put me out of the trifecta anyway.  Tri paid a lazy 9k+ so there are a few happy campers.

But i just dont understand? A horse with a record like it has 9.6.2.0 .......starts at 12/1?....yes it had 1 bad run, but it was clearly back last run....they were all jumping up and down in Sydney 7 weeks ago...i remember it thinking ill be on that next time...........enquiry thanks!!

I didnt even see it till just b4 the race.......of course my account has no cash cause its all tied up in multis.....uggh

[Macca 16,173]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

But i just dont understand? A horse with a record like it has 9.6.2.0 .......starts at 12/1?....yes it had 1 bad run, but it was clearly back last run....they were all jumping up and down in Sydney 7 weeks ago...i remember it thinking ill be on that next time...........enquiry thanks!!

I didnt even see it till just b4 the race.......of course my account has no cash cause its all tied up in multis.....uggh

I was guilty of following the money but maybe the punters thought the 1200m was a bit short.  That's the only thing I can think of Wadda. 

But we now know the horse can win at Group 1 level at 1200m,  1400m & 1600m ... not too many horses are capable of that. 

But I suppose that's what can happen in the big group races - top horses end up being over the odds because of the quality.  However,  Shoals wasn't even mentioned.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

I was guilty of following the money but maybe the punters thought the 1200m was a bit short.  That's the only thing I can think of Wadda. 

But we now know the horse can win at Group 1 level at 1200m,  1400m & 1600m ... not too many horses are capable of that. 

But I suppose that's what can happen in the big group races - top horses end up being over the odds because of the quality.  However,  Shoals wasn't even mentioned.

Thats what gets me, not even really mentioned really??

Won 3 times at 1200....Gr2 & Grp3...good track, heavy track.....not exactly a bad record at the distance is it......

...just got under the radar i guess..

Ive got a few multis resting on Savapinski at least running a plc..... fingers crossed from me.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thats what gets me, not even really mentioned really??

Won 3 times at 1200....Gr2 & Grp3...good track, heavy track.....not exactly a bad record at the distance is it......

...just got under the radar i guess..

Ive got a few multis resting on Savapinski at least running a plc..... fingers crossed from me.

Ouch.

[Macca 16,173]

2 big races from overseas coming up overnight - The 2000 Guineas down the straight 8 at Newmarket just after midnight tonight & The Kentucky Derby just before 9.00am tomorrow. 

Here are some links to the fields for those who might be interested ...

Newmarket 2000 Guineas - Link 1  Link 2

Kentucky Derby  - Link 1  Link 2

I'm trying to have a few doubles but Ladbrokes are only allowing W & P bets and no multis at this stage.  I'll find a way.

'Good Magic' offers a bit of value in the Kentucky Derby although Mendelsshon & Justify are heavily favoured whilst in the 2000 Guineas,  the winner should come from the top 3 fancies (Aiden O'Brien trains 2 of the 3 and also Mendelsshon in the Kentucky Derby)

I'll post up the replays tomorrow if they're available

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

2 big races from overseas coming up overnight - The 2000 Guineas down the straight 8 at Newmarket just after midnight tonight & The Kentucky Derby just before 9.00am tomorrow. 

Here are some links to the fields for those who might be interested ...

Newmarket 2000 Guineas - Link 1  Link 2

Kentucky Derby  - Link 1  Link 2

I'm trying to have a few doubles but Ladbrokes are only allowing W & P bets and no multis at this stage.  I'll find a way.

'Good Magic' offers a bit of value in the Kentucky Derby although Mendelsshon & Justify are heavily favoured whilst in the 2000 Guineas,  the winner should come from the top 3 fancies (Aiden O'Brien trains 2 of the 3 and also Mendelsshon in the Kentucky Derby)

I'll post up the replays tomorrow if they're available

 

Kentucky Darby is always a fun race.......

How are the Waratahs looking Macca? They were down a bit earlier, but have picked up...

[Macca 16,173]

4 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Kentucky Darby is always a fun race.......

How are the Waratahs looking Macca? They were down a bit earlier, but have picked up...

They're down by 4 but we need the Eels to start scoring against the Sharks.  There's a lot of luck involved with sporting multi's.  I usually just set and forget and hope for the best. 

I'm watching a bit of the A-League GF though ... the keeper for Melbourne is playing lights out.  Swans are battling a bit too. 

I've backed Good Magic each way in the Kentucky Derby - more for the place in actual fact Wadda. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

17 minutes ago, Macca said:

They're down by 4 but we need the Eels to start scoring against the Sharks.  There's a lot of luck involved with sporting multi's.  I usually just set and forget and hope for the best. 

I'm watching a bit of the A-League GF though ... the keeper for Melbourne is playing lights out.  Swans are battling a bit too. 

I've backed Good Magic each way in the Kentucky Derby - more for the place in actual fact Wadda. 

Is that on FTA? Lights out??

Yup multis with margins are the hardest, but well worth it when you get them. I actually took Cronulla H2H as well.

Lapinski knocked me out of about 4 multis, in one case the last leg of a 5 leg multi. I didnt realize how many times i kept picking it. Track was a bit chewed up by the last race i guess...

EDIT: Right on que the EEls get a few trys......

Edited May 5, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Is that on FTA? Lights out??

Yup multis with margins are the hardest, but well worth it when you get them. I actually took Cronulla H2H as well.

Lapinski knocked me out of about 4 multis, in one case the last leg of a 5 leg multi. I didnt realize how many times i kept picking it. Track was a bit chewed up by the last race i guess...

The A-League final is on one of the channel 10 stations (channel 1?) The keeper for Melb Victory had a fantastic first half.  Brilliant saves

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

11 minutes ago, Macca said:

The A-League final is on one of the channel 10 stations (channel 1?) The keeper for Melb Victory had a fantastic first half.  Brilliant saves

Thanks i switched it on..

Which stadium is it at?

Jeez, Sharks almost blew it....they were like 16/4 up....20-22 in the end....becareful what you wish for.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

8 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thanks i switched it on..

Which stadium is it at?

Somewhere in Newcastle I'm presuming. 

Eels got it back to a 2 point margin so we covered that game easily but the Waratahs couldn't get the ball over the line despite attacking the Blues try line in the dying minutes of the game - lost by 3.  Ugh.

Still,  I've got a few horses running around in 3 overnight races.  There's always the next opportunity Wadda.  

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

Somewhere in Newcastle I'm presuming. 

Eels got it back to a 2 point margin so we covered that game easily but the Waratahs couldn't get the ball over the line despite attacking the Blues try line in the dying minutes of the game - lost by 3.  Ugh.

Still,  I've got a few horses running around in 3 overnight races.  There's always the next opportunity Wadda.  

A multi a day keeps the doctor away....

 

[Macca 16,173]

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

A multi a day keeps the doctor away....

I've had a few decent collects over time but I was a bit lucky on each occasion.  Sometimes it pays not to research too much.  

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

I've had a few decent collects over time but I was a bit lucky on each occasion.  Sometimes it pays not to research too much.  

One thing ive never understood is there added on time for injuries in injury time?

That goalie has more tape than a an Egyptian mummy..

[Macca 16,173]

I'll post up the Kentucky Derby & The Robert Sangster Stakes when they become available but here's the Australasian Oaks & The Newmarket 2000 Guineas (UK)

n.b. If you have a TAB account you can watch a replay of just about any race. 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,173]

It looks like Youtube isn't coming to the party with a replay of the Kentucky Derby or the Robert Sangster Stakes so if you click on the links below and then logon you can watch a replay of both races ...

Kentucky Derby (Attendance 157,813 - 8th Highest)

Robert Sangster Stakes

I got a reasonable collect in the Kentucky Derby by loading up on the place with Good Magic but the winner far too good. 

As for Shoals,  now there was an opportunity missed for a lot of us.  The horse could end up being one of the better sprinter/milers we've seen the way it's going. 

Royal Ascot next up for the horse by all accounts so it almost certainly won't run in the Goodwood.

 

Best Bet Strike Rate

46: 22 - 10 - 2

Trifecta Strike Rate

3: 1 - 2 (+$30.50)

Australian Group and Listed Races

 

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 5/4/2018 at 8:04 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, no worries Macca.

Ok so here goes my weekly multi: 7 legs. Ive based it around Pleasuring running a big place in the Adelaide race. (at very reasonable odds).

AFL Hawthorn H2H $1.58

Morphettville Race 6. No 6. Pleasuring plc $4.75

Morphettville Race 8. No 1 Savapinski plc $1.60

NRL New Zealand Warriors H2H $1.53

NRL Cronulla Sharks H2H $1.73

Super Rugby Waratahs line -5.5 $1.91

AFL Melbourne H2H $1.38

Return $83.78 for $1.00

Ill do the postmortem Sunday.

Ok, well fail this week, only 4 out of 7. Pleasuring was damn unlucky to miss a place running fourth. Ditto Savapinski, chopped up track by the last didnt help. The Waratahs went down despite a last gasp and were never going to make the line.

Not a real long way off it, so ill be back next week.

I did put one smart multi on earlier in the week, mainly to try and give Max some decent Brownlow odds.

I took, Broncos, Hawks, Warriors and Cronulla all H2H and Melbourne 1-39 (thank god for the last gasp StKilda goal with 21 sec left)....into Big Max for the Brownlow. Ive ended up now looking at $1009.81 for 3 bucks if Max can pull it off. This is where multis can sometimes help increase the odds of a specific pick, another reason i like them.

Edited May 6, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

In the meantime im interested in the cashout offer on The Max multi from now until Brownlow night. The initial stake was $3.00. Max is currently the same odds as when the bet was placed 26/1. The 5 legs completed were worth around 13/1. The cash out offer at the moment stands at a whopping $27.19. The bet payout is $1009.81, with one leg remaining.

We will see as Big Max storms toward September, and if his odds come in from 26 as he gains momentum through the season, what the cash out offer on my $3.00 bet will become. Stay tuned to a Day at the Races to find out...

Edited May 7, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 17,494]

12 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

In the meantime im interested in the cashout offer on The Max multi from now until Brownlow night. The initial stake was $3.00. Max is currently the same odds as when the bet was placed 26/1. The 5 legs completed were worth around 13/1. The cash out offer at the moment stands at a whopping $27.19. The bet payout is $1009.81, with one leg remaining.

We will see as Big Max storms toward September, and if his odds come in from 26 as he gains momentum through the season, what the cash out offer on my $3.00 bet will become. Stay tuned to a Day at the Races to find out...

Haha. I’m actually a little surprised Max hasn’t come in a tad from the $26 mark. He’s ranked in the top 3 players in the league at the moment. 

The disparity in odds between Cripps and Oliver for the Brownlow has me scratching my head. $34 for Cripps currently in a team that’s winless yet Clarry is $101. Is Clarry worth a couple of bucks also?

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,173]

@Dee Zephyr @binman @Wadda We Sing

The choices for our trifecta combo are dwindling somewhat but I found 2 decent races with another that might take your fancy. 

I'm happy to go with the consensus so if you've got a preferred option or if you've another race choice,  feel free to put your choice forward. 

Doomben 10,000  Group 1  1200m  WFA  $700k

Morphettville  SA Derby  Group 1  2500m  SW  $600k

Scone  Inglis 3yo Guineas  1400m  3YO  SW  $400k

Scone Racecourse ...

Trifecta Strike Rate

3: 1 - 2 (+$30.50)

Best Bet Strike Rate

46: 22 - 10 - 2

Australian Group and Listed Races

 

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,173]

Shoals to race on and then go to Royal Ascot next winter - so there's a chance the horse will run in the Goodwood on the 19th of May.  The horse has been entered for the race. 

Listen here for more details (Racing pulse interviews the owner of Shoals,  John Messara - Podcast #10)

Shoals will also be a likely starter for 'The Everest' ... which is shaping up as having an outstanding field assembled with Redzel,  Trapeze Artist & In Her Time already confirmed.  Happy Clapper is a real possibility along with Kementari & Redkirk Warrior.   Winx is an outside chance of running as well -  you never know.  With $7.8Million awarded to the winner,  why not? 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

26 minutes ago, Macca said:

Shoals to race on and then go to Royal Ascot next winter - so there's a chance the horse will run in the Goodwood on the 19th of May.  The horse has been entered for the race. 

Listen here for more details (Racing pulse interviews the owner of Shoals,  John Messara - Podcast #10)

Shoals will also be a likely starter for 'The Everest' ... which is shaping up as having an outstanding field assembled with Redzel,  Trapeze Artist & In Her Time already confirmed.  Happy Clapper is a real possibility along with Kementari & Redkirk Warrior.   Winx is an outside chance of running as well -  you never know.  With $7.8Million awarded to the winner,  why not? 

They should throw in I Victory just to make it impossible to pick~!

[Macca 16,173]

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

They should throw in I Victory just to make it impossible to pick~!

The quarantine laws for the HK horses makes it darn near impossible for the top horses there to race here ... but there's always Chautauqua,  Wadda! 

And Merchant Navy,  Viddora,  Vega Magic,  Brave Smash et al. 

Quite simply,  they should find a way for horses like Pakistan Star,  Beauty Generation,  Beat the Clock and others to be able to run in our big races. 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

The quarantine laws for the HK horses makes it darn near impossible for the top horses there to race here ... but there's always Chautauqua,  Wadda! 

And Merchant Navy,  Viddora,  Vega Magic,  Brave Smash et al. 

Quite simply,  they should find a way for horses like Pakistan Star,  Beauty Generation,  Beat the Clock and others to be able to run in our big races. 

 

Really....i didnt know that. I sort of wondered why some never come here. But the Japanese horses come.....

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Really....i didnt know that. I sort of wondered why some never come here. But the Japanese horses come.....

Different quarantine rules I believe Wadda ... for the HK raced horses to race here they are required to be quarantined somewhere in China for 6 months.  Therefore,  the owners don't bother.

For the Japan based horses,  it might only be a couple of weeks there and a couple of weeks here (quarantine) ... UK based horses the same?  

Beat the Clock is an Australian bred horse for instance but we'll probably never see the horse race here ... I'd love to see that horse along with Mr Stunning,  DB Pin & Ivictory all over here racing in our sprint races.