Could Melbourne have Western Bulldogs-like resurgence in 2016?

[ILLDieADemon 804]

I'm scared to take the lip off but I don't know how much longer I can keep it on!!!

[ILLDieADemon 804]

I'm scared to take the lip off but I don't know how much longer I can keep it on!!!

[titan_uranus 25,043]

As has been said, I think with the psychological baggage the majority of the players carry (as well as the supporters) the start to the season is critical.

Ironically, I think that pressure will be on the players as we go into the GWS and Essendon games. To me, they are so crucial. Get both wins, go 2-0 for the first time in 11 years and hit the North-Collingwood-Richmond stretch full of confidence with the genuine chance of going 4-1. If we drop the GWS game, I can see this club dropping the Essendon game and the season being over after Round 2.

[Adam The God 30,418]

On 3/9/2016 at 1:24 PM, Good Times Grimes said:

I disagree. The Boyd contract isn't great, but they have a fantastic young midfield and Stringer is an absolute freak who hasn't yet reached his ceiling. Murphy, Morris & Boyd are obviously near the end, but their leadership will be replaced by their young brigade. I think the questions lie in their backline, but I liked what I saw from Collins on the weekend and I think they'll be able to top up with other pieces. 
I really don't mind the Dogs. They've suffered as much as we have, so it's hard to not have a bit of a soft spot for them, IMO.

The Dogs have suffered? If you're saying the Dogs have suffered recently, they played in a bunch of prelims in the time that we've been rooted to the bottom of the ladder.

On 3/9/2016 at 2:36 PM, Curry & Beer said:

seriously was ONE positive thread too much to ask?

Also, you can only beat the team that you're up against. Okay, so they played their B team, but we won. End of story.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

4 hours ago, AdamFarr said:

The Dogs have suffered? If you're saying the Dogs have suffered recently, they played in a bunch of prelims in the time that we've been rooted to the bottom of the ladder.

One premiership since joining the league in 1925. That premiership was 62 years ago. We've had six premierships more recently than theirs. SIX. Their last (and only other) grand final appearance was in 1961. I think they've suffered.

[jackaub 1,402]

8 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

As has been said, I think with the psychological baggage the majority of the players carry (as well as the supporters) the start to the season is critical.

Ironically, I think that pressure will be on the players as we go into the GWS and Essendon games. To me, they are so crucial. Get both wins, go 2-0 for the first time in 11 years and hit the North-Collingwood-Richmond stretch full of confidence with the genuine chance of going 4-1. If we drop the GWS game, I can see this club dropping the Essendon game and the season being over after Round 2.

Our best chances to move up the ladder is in the first half of the season.

We must start fast and hard.I see about 8 wins from the first 12 games.All winnable and if we do we could push the 8 with 13 wins. If we start slow and have no momentum then we will be bottom 4 again.

I see this as a side capable of winning against all but the best but they will need self belief and above all momentum from good wins

[Gorgoroth 13,021]

The GWS game is massive. They will be pushing the 8 this year. They have a decent side now. We will need to play at our best to win that. 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I'm not sure whether we'll ultimately make the 8 this year.

But I definitely think we'll be the surprise packet of the competition this year. Perhaps that's more a reflection on where we're coming from though, and the perception everyone else has of the Melbourne Football Club.

 

 

[Eelesie 217]

Apparently we aren't worth a spot in this poll on the HUN as a boiler (though essendrug gets a guernsey!) I know that its only a online poll but FFS, this continual omission is enough to give you the sh!ts! :/

[Yossarian 1,820]

They're taking the píss with Essendon.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

No they're not. Essendon is finals bound this year. Surely.

 

[DeeSpencer 26,082]

Tomorrow is a big test. Getting blown out by the saints won't end the season but it will almost certainly show we've still got massive gaps. I can't imagine a team winning 10 (or even 8) or more games with: 

- Slow starts

- Periods of complete lack of ball movement from the backline with sub AFL standard turnovers and few attacking kicks

- Terrible forward 50 entries

- Inability to create forward pressure

- Inability to keep up with teams on the spread

- Only 2 main avenues to goal.

The first half against Port and most of the Dogs game had a lot of that. The second half against Port had none of that. Time to show that against a good pressure team on their home ground that we can stand up against it and push back.

[Redleg 41,443]

I was having a think about the list and tried to see where we could realistically be at. No doubt we have have a far better list than 3 years ago. However, lets compare us to a similar rival the Pies.

They have better running backs than us, I think it would be fair to say and their tall backs of Brown, Frost and Reid are probably similar to ours in Dunn, Tom Mc and Garland.

Their mids of Pendles, Swan, Treloar, Adams, Sidebottom, De Goey  and Crisp would probably shade ours of Jones, Viney, Brayshaw, Tyson, Vince, Oliver and VDB.

Their tall forwards of Cloke, Moore and Gault are probably  similar to Hogan, Pederson and Watts.

Their rucks run deeper with Grundy, Witts and Cox  than our Gawn and Spencer.

Our smaller forwards are probably similar, with ours perhaps ahead, especially if Petracca is the player we all hope he will be..

Line up the squads and you can see we still need some players to step up or be added, to be  ahead of a similar club like the Pies, who are vying for a place in the 8 with us and others.

 

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,287]

Redleg, your post was perhaps prompted by the Pies' narrow win (coming from 6 goals down at 1/2 time) over a 'full strength' Dogs today? Raising 2 questions: How does our defeat of a lesser-strength Dogs rate us? How do we compare with that fuller strength Dogs and the Pies that narrowly beat them? Against the background that we have - in a pleasant new development - won both games so far coming back from well behind. I think if we can quell teams' rebound from halfback, as the Pies appeared to do to the Dogs in the 2nd half today, we can match it with the Pies and Dogs of the comp. The half-forward pressure we have exhibited so far, in terms of numbers at the ball and the tackling, in the relatively substantial parts of the games so far, will go a good way to achieving that if we can keep it up.

[DeeSpencer 26,082]

18 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I was having a think about the list and tried to see where we could realistically be at. No doubt we have have a far better list than 3 years ago. However, lets compare us to a similar rival the Pies.

They have better running backs than us, I think it would be fair to say and their tall backs of Brown, Frost and Reid are probably similar to ours in Dunn, Tom Mc and Garland.

Their mids of Pendles, Swan, Treloar, Adams, Sidebottom, De Goey  and Crisp would probably shade ours of Jones, Viney, Brayshaw, Tyson, Vince, Oliver and VDB.

Their tall forwards of Cloke, Moore and Gault are probably  similar to Hogan, Pederson and Watts.

Their rucks run deeper with Grundy, Witts and Cox  than our Gawn and Spencer.

Our smaller forwards are probably similar, with ours perhaps ahead, especially if Petracca is the player we all hope he will be..

Line up the squads and you can see we still need some players to step up or be added, to be  ahead of a similar club like the Pies, who are vying for a place in the 8 with us and others.

 

Might derail the topic a bit but oh well.

Backline: Brown's a better pure stopper but Dunn offers more rebound. Frost and McDonald are about equal both can be great or terrible. We need to upgrade Garland. Reid never plays so it's really Marsh, who was good today. The Pies small defenders are an achilles heal I think, they don't kick the ball well enough. They shut down ok but they lack rebound. They'd love Salem. But we need another as well. They have more options with a bit more game experience (Oxley, Ramsey, Sinclair, Langdon) but need one or two of those to emerge, just as we need another running defender. 12 months time and hopefully it's Melksham, Hunt, Wagner, White all showing AFL capabilities.

Forward: Hogan over Moore. But Cloke is still way better than Pedo obviously. Watts needs to show he's a legit 3rd tall. Gault's an interesting prospect, but their best 3rd tall is probably Howe once he comes back. Or they do have the option of playing 2 rucks that we don't. If they get Elliott, Fasolo and Varcoe in the same forward line (with Swan playing 50/50) then that's amazing. Petracca and Garlett might be a great start for us, but Kent, Kennedy and Harmes have work to do to prove they are consistent AFL players.

Rucks: Would rather Gawn and no back up than the Pies 3 to be honest, but we need the King's to come on fast.

Mids: They have us for experienced ball winners. Pendles, Swan, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Crisp, De Goey we can counter with Vince, Jones, Viney, Tyson, Vanders, Brayshaw, Oliver but besides the Pendles superstar status it's just slight edges in experience I think. The pies fell away late last season, we fell away after we beat them. We have to find and then sustain that top level with youngsters. Their biggest advantage might be Sidebottom as a top quality outside midfielder, even if he's a bit slower than ideal. I hope Trengove can be that player for us. Aish might be their next best outside runner, which shows it's not their strongest depth spot. They might experiment with Howe on a wing, we are trying Grimes and Matt Jones. Neither team is blessed.

In summary I think they have us for: Ruck depth (one good trade or state league find fixes that), midfield experience (time and development should fix), backline options (if not talent) and forward line potency (which Petracca, Kent and Watts could fix if they get it together). 

Otherwise both sides have similar gaps. If we develop our best kids in to a couple of A graders and can fill the gaps with a few more good draft picks and then a trade or two we can bounce straight by them. When they won in the middle, pressured their backs and rebounded quickly the Dogs tore them apart. 

[Little Goffy 14,639]

Round 8 is the Doggies first game away from Etihad, against us at the 'G.

And y'know what, there's a real chance that will be a top-4 clash.

I'm officially going bonkers, but I'd rate us a chance against all our opponents in the first seven rounds, including Collingwood, North and Richmond.

Only one finalist for us in the first 7 rounds. Oh wait... two, I forgot Richmond, but I think you have to actually turn up to be counted, no?

[Redleg 41,443]

12 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Might derail the topic a bit but oh well.

Backline: Brown's a better pure stopper but Dunn offers more rebound. Frost and McDonald are about equal both can be great or terrible. We need to upgrade Garland. Reid never plays so it's really Marsh, who was good today. The Pies small defenders are an achilles heal I think, they don't kick the ball well enough. They shut down ok but they lack rebound. They'd love Salem. But we need another as well. They have more options with a bit more game experience (Oxley, Ramsey, Sinclair, Langdon) but need one or two of those to emerge, just as we need another running defender. 12 months time and hopefully it's Melksham, Hunt, Wagner, White all showing AFL capabilities.

Forward: Hogan over Moore. But Cloke is still way better than Pedo obviously. Watts needs to show he's a legit 3rd tall. Gault's an interesting prospect, but their best 3rd tall is probably Howe once he comes back. Or they do have the option of playing 2 rucks that we don't. If they get Elliott, Fasolo and Varcoe in the same forward line (with Swan playing 50/50) then that's amazing. Petracca and Garlett might be a great start for us, but Kent, Kennedy and Harmes have work to do to prove they are consistent AFL players.

Rucks: Would rather Gawn and no back up than the Pies 3 to be honest, but we need the King's to come on fast.

Mids: They have us for experienced ball winners. Pendles, Swan, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Crisp, De Goey we can counter with Vince, Jones, Viney, Tyson, Vanders, Brayshaw, Oliver but besides the Pendles superstar status it's just slight edges in experience I think. The pies fell away late last season, we fell away after we beat them. We have to find and then sustain that top level with youngsters. Their biggest advantage might be Sidebottom as a top quality outside midfielder, even if he's a bit slower than ideal. I hope Trengove can be that player for us. Aish might be their next best outside runner, which shows it's not their strongest depth spot. They might experiment with Howe on a wing, we are trying Grimes and Matt Jones. Neither team is blessed.

In summary I think they have us for: Ruck depth (one good trade or state league find fixes that), midfield experience (time and development should fix), backline options (if not talent) and forward line potency (which Petracca, Kent and Watts could fix if they get it together). 

Otherwise both sides have similar gaps. If we develop our best kids in to a couple of A graders and can fill the gaps with a few more good draft picks and then a trade or two we can bounce straight by them. When they won in the middle, pressured their backs and rebounded quickly the Dogs tore them apart. 

I posted before I read the best players for the Pies. Interestingly, the first 6 of their mids I named, were their best players, plus Moore.

We are on the right track. We need to develop, recruit/trade and retain players.

However,the good teams cherry pick players from other clubs and get them. We need to get to that level and then do the same.

Who were the best two for the Pies, Treloar and Adams. The Cats best of the NAB challenge, Dangerfield. The Dockers best yesterday, Bennell. Even the Blues' best, Kerridge, etc.

 

[Its Time for Another 4,288]

I watched part of their game yesterday. They were very very good. I didn't rate them and thought they were due for a decline this year as they really hadn't done much trading in but they are a good team, playing very good footy. they're fast and don't turn the footy over. Can we beat them? Yes, but only playing our best for 4 quarters. We haven't been able to do that yet this pre season. Let's hope we see it today.

[Redleg 41,443]

2 hours ago, It's Time said:

 I didn't rate them and thought they were due for a decline this year as they really hadn't done much trading in 

Treloar, Aish and Howe say hi.

[Little Goffy 14,639]

Scary thing about the Dogs is that a lot of their non-star players have had very good pre-season comps.

Caleb Daniel, Jacob Jahanisson,Koby stevens, Lachlan Hunter, Nathan Hrovat,Lin Jong and even the solid gold potato Tom Boyd have all shown something this preason.