Stats that Matter - Season 2015 (or a truckload of bulldust!?)

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Thanks rusty.

I want sure if it was 40 or 30 m so you covered it for me!

Interesting that 5 of the top 6 are defenders. That seems to support the kicking sideways theory. Without metres gained, rebound from 50 and inside 50s may be able to provide some commentary on tavailable of possessions.

We really need a couple of our mids to be pushing into sublet or better stats categories. And this is one Watts should be aiming to be in

No probs deanox. U were pretty much on the money on the definition. Agree re defenders and UPs/ DE %. My understanding is coaches place alot more emphasis on metres gained, run & carry, rebound 50s, i50s, Marks i50, pressure acts around the ground, clearances from stoppages etc vs junky stuff like effective disposals and DE%. I could be wrong but my understanding is that most stats that are publicly available (not all) arent used very widely by the coaching fraternity at the highest levels. We should therefore not get too caught up in them either. Although there is no harm in using them as a very rough guide as to where a player is vs team mates' averages or the league's averages as long as you're using a compilation of them and they are weighted to avoid one absolute rubbish stat skewing your view of a player's or players' performance.

Observing the game should always be the most important method of rating/ranking a players performance of course. With stats just there to help paint a bit of a story around what's actually happening on the field.

With regard to Watts I believe talent wise he is capable of great things. Talent is not an issue for him IMO. But you can't "teach" courage. I think you either have it or you don't and playing footy requires alot of it alot of the time. Watts' challenge is to find it. In a good or very good list he would be asked to do so at the next level down and earn the right to come back into the seniors if/when that happens. I don't blame Watts as i believe the OTT spotlight on him is a result of years of sub standard recruiting ie, failure to bolster the depth on our list as well as ongoing poor management eg, gifting him (and others) senior games when they are a fair way off AFL standard (back to recruiting standards etc).

Having said that I think Roos is doing a solid job of fixing our depth problems. Another 2 shots at the draft by him and Goodwin should see us finally edge somewhere into the middle group of teams in a year or 2.

Edited May 7, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[deanox 9,931]

I agree on the last point, and once we are in the middle group of teams anything can happen.

RE Watts, I wasn't intending to comment on the recent exposure/commentary on his performance, I just meant to highlight that that is the exact role I hope he would play: high DE%, high uncontested possessions, high inside 50 count. They are the type of stats that would indicate he is doing his job to me, obviously pressure acts, chases, tackles etc as well.

I agree with you also on the stats that we use v the stats the coaches use. I think this is because champion data charges the clubs for those stats. But we need to work with what we have! The stat I don't like is "contested possessions" which also include picking up a loose bouncing ball in the backline when no one else is within 40 m of you. The stats need to be weighed against the observations.

We really need more midfielders getting more uncontested possessions though. Easy ball through the center is why we have such a low inside 50 count.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

AFL Player Ratings are probably the most significant statistical ratings/rankings of AFL players ever attempted. They are based on a weighted score of a number of critical "impact/influence" stats every week sourced from key Champion Data stats.

The ratings allow you to consider how each player is performing relative to others in the AFL as well as allowing you to compare players across a various number of line categories such as Key Forwards, Midfielders, Key Defenders etc.

So how is each player's rating worked out? (courtesy of AFL Player Ratings)

...."Players accrue or lose points every time they are involved in a passage of play. The score awarded to them each time they are in the play is determined by a complex algorithm formulated and refined over a number of years by Champion Data. Players accrue or lose points depending on whether they have a positive or negative impact on a passage of play.

A player's rating is determined by aggregating his points tally based on a rolling window of the previous two seasons. For example, after round six of the 2014 season, a player's rating will be based on matches from round seven of the 2012 season onwards. However, only a player's most recent 40 matches are used in the calculation of his rating. This creates a buffer for players missing matches through injury, suspension, omission or by not being involved in finals. A player's most recent 20 matches are given greater weight in determining his rating. Matches 21 through 40 are progressively reduced in weighting, from 100 per cent down to five per cent for the earliest game in the window."..... end.

Based on this we need to keep in mind that players who are relatively new to the game will likely be at a disadvantage in their total score relative to players who have been in the system longer eg., they obviously may not have accrued 40 matches yet and may still be learning the game/position/craft vs a mature age or non rookie player. Or alternatively they may have been in the system for some time but not been able to accrue anywhere near 40 matches due to sub par performance/injury etc. Obvious MFC examples include; Brayshaw, Newton, Stretch, Vandenberg, Michie, Hogan etc.

The other aspect to consider is that the ratings below are not specifically a guide to recent form due to the 40 week weighted score. There are more relevant ratings specific to recent weeks which the AFL puts out on twitter as well as "game day" ratings. I've posted some of those relating to the MFC below.

So, howE are our MFC boys doing across the lines over the 40 week rolling period?

Key Defender / Rank (out of 78)

McDonald / 9

Dunn / 12

Small Medium Defender / Rank (out of 127)

Lumumba / 13

Howe / 15

Garland / 29

Terlich / 63

Grimes / 71

Jetta / 74

Salem / 95

Midfielder / Rank (out of 189)

N Jones / 52

Vince / 80

Tyson / 89

Cross / 100

Viney / 106

M Jones / 109

Trengove / 133

McKenzie / 137

Newton / 142

Michie / 143

Riley / 155

Brayshaw / 170

Stretch / 183

Key Forward / Rank (out of 74)

Pedersen / 27

Dawes / 29

Frost / 42

Fitzpatrick / 43

Hogan / 51

Midfielder Forward / Rank (out of 53)

Bail / 41

Toumpas / 49

Vandenberg / 51

Small Medium Forward / Rank (out of 103)

Watts / 19

Garlett / 25

Kent / 39

JKH / 63

Ruck / Rank (out of 49)

Jamar / 20

Gawn / 32

Spencer / 36

Some more recent AFL Ratings highlights from 2015 for us include....

• In the AFL Rating's Rolling Team of the YEAR (updated each round), T-Mac is the sole MFC representative to Round 6 at Full Back!
• Hogan currently ranks in the top 10 eligible rising star nominees at 9th.
• Our top 5 players vs the Swans on Saturday night (Round 6, 2015) were Salem (8th overall), Garlett (9th), Jones (10th), Hogan (11th) and Garland (13th).

• Ex Carlton small forwards Eddie Betts and our boy Jeffy Garlett rank in the top quartile of all small / medium forwards at No.2 and No. 25 respectively with Eddie being ranked 34th in the league overall !! Me thinks Carlton may have made a "blue" or two letting these blokes go

That's it for now. I might revisit this mid season for another update and see how our boys are progressing vs the rest of the AFL.

Edited May 11, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[binman 43,054]

Terrific stuff rusty, thanks. Some interesting numbers. Surprised jetta not ranked higher. Not surprised watts ranked so high though I imagine others might be (or if not surprised perhaps might not rate the ranking)

[jackaub 1,402]

Very interesting Reading Rusty

It highlights exactly where our current problems are.

Our Midfield and Midfield small forward are amongst the worst rated in the league where as Backs Forwards and medium forwards are in the better quartile of the AFL list

So its mids mids mids again alog with rucks for the foreseeable future recruiting

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Terrific stuff rusty, thanks. Some interesting numbers. Surprised jetta not ranked higher. Not surprised watts ranked so high though I imagine others might be (or if not surprised perhaps might not rate the ranking)

Np bin. I think it's a great initiative by the AFL and looking forward to reviewing this again later in the season.

I think with Watts it's more the really bad and ugly that some are getting miffed at. Yes, he does put in the occasional solid quarter here and there but it's the lack of consistency across a full 4 quarters and consecutive matches after 6 seasons on the park that is being looked at. This along with some of the less than convincing defensive moments when he runs past potential tackles (eg., flinging out an arm and giving away a free with a coat hanger attempt instead of nailing with a body slam lol), failing to hit a pack hard enough when needed, hanging off a contest outside when he really needed to commit. Just some examples. He isn't alone in any of these acts individually but as a collective people observe it all and compile a picture of a player. I also remember Dermie being very much like this in his 1st season or so with the Hawks....but he was just learning his craft and probably in awe of so many greats around him who were doing much of the necessary grunt work. Yet he was still very much a bit of an "outside onlooker". Suffice to say his latter years were a cut above most players and he ended up becoming one of the greats who never shirked a contest. Some would say he was a complete thug too i realise. But they were different times from that perspective. I don't think many question Watts' ability to distribute quality ball once he gets it and he is also a pretty handy shot at goal when within range. More than you can say for many forwards nowadays.

Also remember that because these stats are based on the last 40 games, the overall rating score might contain results from last season that may have been of a higher standard than recent form. Watts hasn't exactly set the world on fire so far this season and people tend to remember the most recent performances, which is understandable. You aren't going to get picked or admired by many fans on last year's form.

My own compilation of junk stats has him ranked at No.19 out of the 29 players that have played so far this year. Plenty of rounds to go for improvement assuming he retains his place in the seniors and i believe he will given the lack of quality at Casey. I had him ranked at No.9 out of 33 players last year up till Round 14 (didn't keep any season stats after that). He isn't alone in a drop off of form either, there are a few others who aren't at the level of last year IMO which isn't helping our cause so far.

Edited May 13, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[Je Roos Salem 661]

I'd say Howe is pretty lucky to be that high too. Watts must be the tallest small/medium forward at 196cm. I wonder how much influence this player rating team will have on the All Australian team come year's end?

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Luffy King and Harf discussing MFCs progresss or shall we say regression from last year on SEN 1116 now!!

[Watts Jurrah Dunn? 735]

Luffy King and Harf discussing MFCs progresss or shall we say regression from last year on SEN 1116 now!!

My quick recap for those that missed it:

- They were staggered that a coach could say players are tired after round 7, a third of the way through the season. The side Melbourne fielded at the weekend was the 9th youngest in the league so we are not that young.

- Ball movement absolutely atrocious. For Inside 50 conversions from Deep Defence, Defence, Backward of Centre and Forward of Centre we are something like 16th, 18th, 18th, 18th. Inaccuracy in front of goal also hurting going at about 50%, but we are incapable of moving the ball and kicking a score (average of 57 points for over the past 6 weeks is 2 goals behind the 17th side over that period - Brisbane). Nothing we didn't already know here as we are screaming out for skilled mids and half backs that can run and kick.

- King subtly turned up the heat on Roos and said that it is unfair to grade us on the last 3 weeks but the next 4-6 weeks in which we play the Bulldogs and St Kilda will tell us a lot about whether we have actually improved. Mentioned that the investment in Roos has been enormous and you'd want to see some real improvement soon. Questioned whether the game style is right and said he would prefer to see Melbourne try and kick 100 points and lose by 100 points.

[jackaub 1,402]

Not an unreasonable assessment . It will be interesting to see

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

My quick recap for those that missed it:

- They were staggered that a coach could say players are tired after round 7, a third of the way through the season. The side Melbourne fielded at the weekend was the 9th youngest in the league so we are not that young.

- Ball movement absolutely atrocious. For Inside 50 conversions from Deep Defence, Defence, Backward of Centre and Forward of Centre we are something like 16th, 18th, 18th, 18th. Inaccuracy in front of goal also hurting going at about 50%, but we are incapable of moving the ball and kicking a score (average of 57 points for over the past 6 weeks is 2 goals behind the 17th side over that period - Brisbane). Nothing we didn't already know here as we are screaming out for skilled mids and half backs that can run and kick.

- King subtly turned up the heat on Roos and said that it is unfair to grade us on the last 3 weeks but the next 4-6 weeks in which we play the Bulldogs and St Kilda will tell us a lot about whether we have actually improved. Mentioned that the investment in Roos has been enormous and you'd want to see some real improvement soon. Questioned whether the game style is right and said he would prefer to see Melbourne try and kick 100 points and lose by 100 points.

That pretty much covers it. Nice job WJD

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

A few interesting key stats from yesterday's win...

- Spencil had 40 hit outs. 14 to advantage. An amazing 35% hit rate! Vs Roughhead 21 (3) & Cordy 20 (2). Watts was used as designated 3rd man a few times for 4 (3) !

- We won the clearance count but the doggies scored more from stoppages 6.3.39 vs Demons 2.8.20

- in an amazing turnaround (for us) we scored a whopping 13.4.82 from turnovers vs the Doggies 3.7.29 !

- Pressure Acts (one of the coaches favs!) ... Vanders lead with 26 with H just behind on 24 & our up & coming gun mid fielder, one Mr. B Vince, 3rd with 17.

- I cant be sure about previous wins against GCS & the Toiges but we won time in forward half with 53% vs 47%.

- Kicking boots were on with an accuracy of 54% vs the Doggies 41%.

- We won the "metres gained" by 852 metres. The top 5 contributors were 1. Mr Vince 2. The Jones Boy 3. Grimes 4. Garland 5. Vanders

Nice job from the boys. Lets hope they can keep it up.

Stats: Courtesy of Champion Data

Edited May 25, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

Just a quick look at some of the key stats from Sunday's game against the Saints that are "Champion Data" exclusive...

Note: there were areas on the day that we won such as contested/uncontested but I've left them out seeing as they're readily available on a number of football sites.

Areas we came out on top

> Hit outs to Adv 21/10

Areas we were behind

> Metres gained - 386

> Intercepts -9

> Intercept marks -10

> % time in forward half 59/41

> Tackles i50 18/8

> Pressure Acts 324/222

Our top 5 metres gained exponents were...

1. Mr Vince 506

2. The Jones boy 503

3. Dunny 376

4. The Toump 353

5. Crossy 344

Bottom 5 were....

1. Gawn -23

2. Pedo 7

3. Michie 41

4. Garlett 58

5. ANB 97

Edited June 16, 2015 by Rusty Nails