Jump to content

The difference between Picks 23 & 40

The Stigga
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

We all know how this will play out.

One of the 17 players between 23 and 40 will turn out to be an A-grader, and some schmucks will declare that this means we blew our recruiting and we are all doomed.

The other 16 in the range could all be spuds, but that wont matter to the MFCSS machine.

  • Quote
    •  

    No News Day?

  • Quote
    •  

    Too many people here wanting to find the next champion in the draft..... it's a lottery & it's only part of the process.. Great players are developed in a good club with good culture & coaches... Our record over the last decade is terrible in developing players!

    Frost can be developed to be a kpp backman & has a couple of years in the system, the alternative is go to the draft & hope & wait 2-3 yrs...

  • Quote

    If Jason Taylor finds a player at 40 or 53 and Frost makes it, it'll be a great trade.

  • Quote

    This website sets out the number of games played by each of the draft picks over the past three decades of drafting ~ https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks

    Despite the fact that national draft pick 1 failures often come under the microscope, players picked first have averaged the most number of games - 140. The sequence goes like this:-

    1 - 140

    2 - 128

    3 - 122

    4 - 90

    5 - 99

    6 - 48

    7 - 94

    8 - 93

    9 - 87

    10 - 83

    11 - 83

    12 - 76

    13 - 94

    14 - 77

    15 - 66

    16 - 85

    17 - 64

    18 - 69

    19 - 82

    20 - 69

    From there:

    * the range 21 - 25 is between 39 and 66 games (the average for pick 23 which we gave away for Sam Frost was 45 games);

    * the range 26 - 30 is between 42 and 74 games;

    * the range 31 - 35 is between 26 and 58 games;

    * the range 36 - 40 is between 45 and 78 (the average for pick 40 which was one of the picks we received for Sam Frost was 78 games);

    * the range 41 - 45 is between 39 and 57 games;

    * the range 46 - 50 is between 40 and 57 games;

    * the range 51 - 55 is between 11 and 56 games (the average for pick 40 which was the other pick we received for Sam Frost was 46 games);

    The numbers drop away after that with a few statistical aberrations for those more famous late picks in history such as James Hird (79).

    The best average of the rookie draft picks is at the 50 mark with quite a few averaging in the 40's but the pick 1 average is 25.

    Pre-Season Draft pick 1 averages 49 games and the best average is 18 with 83 (another statistical aberration?). You'll get plenty of 40s in the early part of the PSD.

    What does this mean apart from the old story about damn lies and statistics?

    If things fall our way, we have a reasonable chance of picking as good a player with 40 than we might have with 23 so if the club rates Frost highly then it was a fair decision to do the trade.

  • Quote
    •  

    Pick 23 became Frost, pick 40 and pick 53.

    Had we not made the Frost trade it would've been pick 23 and pick 83 (without Sam).

    Kind of rich to imply some sort of error occurred here.

  • Quote

    Not a huge difference apparently. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but lots of people who follow that stuff don't rate this year's youths. Stephen Well's would rather Rhys Stanley than the kids that he could potentially draft at 21.

  • Quote

    Not a huge difference apparently. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but lots of people who follow that stuff don't rate this year's youths. Stephen Well's would rather Rhys Stanley than the kids that he could potentially draft at 21.

    They rate the top 4 though...which we happen to have 2 picks in...

    Edited by Moneider96

  • Quote

    Not a huge difference apparently. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but lots of people who follow that stuff don't rate this year's youths. Stephen Well's would rather Rhys Stanley than the kids that he could potentially draft at 21.

    Geelong have cleaned out a lot of senior list players.

    Christensen, Varcoe, Stringer, Schroder, Hamling, Brown, Burbury whilst only bringing in Stanley and Clark so they are obviously going to have a number of picks in this draft. It's just they swapped 21 for 60 along with Stanley so I think Wells just prefers multiple late picks to find very good players instead of just the pressure of an early pick. That's somewhat inline with our downgrade for Frost.

  • Quote

    • Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • PREVIEW: Carlton

      Good evening, Demon fans and welcome back to the Demonland Podcast ... it’s time to discuss this week’s game against the Blues. Will the Demons celebrate Clayton Oliver’s 200th game with a victory? We have a number of callers waiting on line … Leopold Bloom: Carlton and Melbourne are both out of finals contention with six wins and eleven losses, and are undoubtedly the two most underwhelming and disappointing teams of 2025. Both had high expectations at the start of participating and advancing deep into the finals, but instead, they have consistently underperformed and disappointed themselves and their supporters throughout the year. However, I am inclined to give the Demons the benefit of the doubt, as they have made some progress in addressing their issues after a disastrous start. In contrast, the Blues are struggling across the board and do not appear to be making any notable improvements. They are regressing, and a significant loss is looming on Saturday night. Max Gawn in the ruck will be huge and the Demon midfield have a point to prove after lowering their colours in so many close calls.

        • Clap
        • Like
      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • REPORT: North Melbourne

      I suppose that I should apologise for the title of this piece, but the temptation to go with it was far too great. The memory of how North Melbourne tore Melbourne apart at the seams earlier in the season and the way in which it set the scene for the club’s demise so early in the piece has been weighing heavily upon all of us. This game was a must-win from the club’s perspective, and the team’s response was overwhelming. The 36 point win over Alastair Clarkson’s Kangaroos at the MCG on Sunday was indeed — roovenge of the highest order!

        • Love
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 4 replies
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Werribee

      The Casey Demons remain in contention for a VFL finals berth following a comprehensive 76-point victory over the Werribee Tigers at Whitten Oval last night. The caveat to the performance is that the once mighty Tigers have been raided of many key players and are now a shadow of the premiership-winning team from last season. The team suffered a blow before the game when veteran Tom McDonald was withdrawn for senior duty to cover for Steven May who is ill.  However, after conceding the first goal of the game, Casey was dominant from ten minutes in until the very end and despite some early errors and inaccuracy, they managed to warm to the task of dismantling the Tigers with precision, particularly after half time when the nominally home side provided them with minimal resistance.

        • Thanks
      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Carlton

      The Demons return to the MCG as the the visiting team on Saturday night to take on the Blues who are under siege after 4 straight losses. Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Thanks
      • 222 replies
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: North Melbourne

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 14th July @ 8:00pm. Join Binman & I as we dissect the Dees glorious win over the Kangaroos at the MCG.
      Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
      Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 29 replies
      Demonland

    • POSTGAME: North Melbourne

      The Demons are finally back at the MCG and finally back on the winners list as they continually chipped away at a spirited Kangaroos side eventually breaking their backs and opening the floodgates to run out winners by 6 goals.

        • Haha
        • Love
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 255 replies
      Demonland
    View All