Lessons from the Gold Coast

[titan_uranus 24,656]

It's easy to get excited about the Gold Coast. Their last two games have seen them in front of the top two clubs in the competition, Geelong and Hawthorn, into the third quarter of each match. This despite playing these two games away, including at Simonds Stadium.

A quick reflection on where the Gold Coast have come from, though, provides some interesting material. Stuff that's largely been forgotten thanks to their improvement to date.

Last year, the Gold Coast lost its first 14 games. Their average losing margin was 52.5. Included in these losses were losses to GWS, the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, all bottom 5 clubs. It also included a loss to West Coast by 126, and losses of 97 (Collingwood), 95 (St Kilda), 92 (St Kilda again), 69 (Adelaide) and 65 (Brisbane).

In winning three of their last 8 games, they also lost to Sydney by 72, Hawthorn by 64, Adelaide by 91, and even lost to Melbourne.

In 2012, the Gold Coast was ranked last for team-to-opponent tackles differential, averaging 8.7 tackles fewer than their opponents, 2.0 clear of the 17th ranked side. They were also 16th in team-to-opponent disposals differential, averaging 51.2 fewer than their opponents. The 15th ranked side averaged 16.8 fewer. They also averaged 6.5 fewer goals per game.

This year, the Gold Coast now ranks fourth overall for the tackles differential stat, averaging 4 tackles more than their opponents. The disposal differential stat has also improved, now averaging 13.6 fewer per game. They now average only 1.1 fewer goals per game.

Melbourne in 2013 averages more than 100 fewer disposals than opponents, 9.2 fewer goals, and 3.2 fewer tackles. Our average losing margin is 76.

Last year, Guy McKenna was in his second year with a young list. This year, Mark Neeld is in his second year with a young list.

You can probably get a sense of my point by now.

I don't necessarily believe that in 2014 we'll be playing as well as the Gold Coast is in 2013. What I do believe, though, is that what we're hearing from Neeld and, implicitly or otherwise, Jackson and the Board, is that the lack of time Neeld has had with his players is hampering our ability to judge where we're at, and that with more time, improvement is clearly possible.

Yes, there are differences. The Gold Coast has Ablett. True. But they had Ablett last year too. Our averages are worse than Gold Coast's this year. True. But disposals aside, not by a significant amount. We're also a better tackling side than they were, so there are some aspects in which we're not as bad as they were. Some may say Melbourne's performances have been way worse. At times, true. But the Gold Coast were pretty rank last year. Their 'performance' against West Coast was just as bad as ours against Essendon.

They attracted similar negativity and criticism as what we're getting; some of what I have found in a five minute Google search includes this, and this.

But the fact of it is that the Gold Coast brought a bunch of kids together and started getting games into them as a group. They've persisted with this group, and the group is now beginning to mature. The step has been taken from boys to men, albeit men who tire and still aren't fantastic. But they're men who can compete with men more often, for longer, and can beat them at their best. They're playing at levels that are modest, but those modest levels are exceedingly more than what they were producing last year.

If anything, this should be at least a source of hope for MFC supporters.

[Mickey "O" 32]

The difference being that GC received a large number of draft concessions, with midfielders coming out of their ears... And Gary Ablett...

[Bay Riffin 1,454]

The development of gold coast is actually not that interesting, given they had unprecedented draft choices + Gary Ablett the best midfielder in the AFL + were able to secure blokes like O'Meara through the mini draft which is just pure icing on the cake..oh and there's more...the next year then secure Martin through the mini draft to put some icing on the icing.

As one judge said they will have number one picks playing back pocket. and FYI Swallow there true first number one draft pick is currently playing half back.

If anything you could question their lack of key position power, why not draft a Jesse Hogan given they had Ablett, Swallow, Bennel, O'Meara, Matera etc etc.

They are positioned nicely to rise up the ladder but is that un balanced side sustainable for finals footy ?

[DemonWA 3,888]

Gold coast started from scratch, we didnt. It is a disgrace that we arent better than them right now

[Geddy Lee 582]

You can build a whole team around a superstar; Ablett, LeBron, Buddy, Lionel.

Last full moon I sacrificed a goat to the great war god Odin, and whispered the name "Jesse" to the breeze.

[mjt 640]

Ablett , Omeara, Swallow, Bennell, Prestia and a yet to play Martin, give me a break, they will be the club to offer huge money to Frawley, the Afl have set them up to win, and us poor losers can please ourselves, the competition is a joke.

[Bay Riffin 1,454]

Gold coast started from scratch, we didnt. It is a disgrace that we arent better than them right now

and are careering past Brisbane, Doggies on their way up the ladder as well.

Was always going to happen.

but yes we should be talking finals not being on the bottom.

[Giles 179]

On the other hand, we've got about 150 years football club experience on Gold Coast. Just sayin'.

[Redleg 40,228]

On the other hand, we've got about 150 years football club experience on Gold Coast. Just sayin'.

With the last 49 years without a flag and pretty ordinary for most of it.

PS. Good to see that picture of Giles again. He was a very good player for us.

[Fat Tony 5,090]

It's easy to get excited about the Gold Coast. Their last two games have seen them in front of the top two clubs in the competition, Geelong and Hawthorn, into the third quarter of each match. This despite playing these two games away, including at Simonds Stadium.

...

If anything, this should be at least a source of hope for MFC supporters.

Good post Lynden. Sack Neeld immediately, get three good young midfielders in the draft and retain Watts, Sylvia and Frawley and the glass is half full again. Sydney almost built is list up completely between flags and showed what good recruiting, coaching and list management can do.

IMO lobbying the AFL to take measures to even up the competition is vital, however.

[titan_uranus 24,656]

Good post Lynden.

I don't get it.

[Biffen 12,842]

You can build a whole team around a superstar; Ablett, LeBron, Buddy, Lionel.

Last full moon I sacrificed a goat to the great war god Odin, and whispered the name "Jesse" to the breeze.

That is very informative Geddy Lee.

Can I give you a list of other names and some more goats .

Willing to try anything .

[demon-4-life 467]

Gary Ablett.

That is all.

[Return to Glory 8,250]

That is very informative Geddy Lee.

Can I give you a list of other names and some more goats .

Willing to try anything .

That's quite a coincidence. In the village I grew up in I used to help build boats for the other residents. Did they call me the boat builder? No. I used to supply flowers for all occasions to everyone. Did they call me the florist? No. I [censored] one goat....

Sorry

[Jack7 521]

I've been to most Suns home games this year and last and the difference is stark but they had access to the best 17 and 18yo's in the country and a bloke called Ablett.Out of our game Sunday Bail,Jordie,Rodan,Pedo,Strauss,Fitzy wouldn't get a game with the Suns and that is a 1/4 of our team.

If we had Ablett,Jaegar,Prestia,Matera,Swallow we'd have won 4 games this year also.

It's all about the midfield.

[dee-luded 2,959]

It's easy to get excited about the Gold Coast. Their last two games have seen them in front of the top two clubs in the competition, Geelong and Hawthorn, into the third quarter of each match. This despite playing these two games away, including at Simonds Stadium.

A quick reflection on where the Gold Coast have come from, though, provides some interesting material. Stuff that's largely been forgotten thanks to their improvement to date.

Last year, the Gold Coast lost its first 14 games. Their average losing margin was 52.5. Included in these losses were losses to GWS, the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, all bottom 5 clubs. It also included a loss to West Coast by 126, and losses of 97 (Collingwood), 95 (St Kilda), 92 (St Kilda again), 69 (Adelaide) and 65 (Brisbane).

In winning three of their last 8 games, they also lost to Sydney by 72, Hawthorn by 64, Adelaide by 91, and even lost to Melbourne.

In 2012, the Gold Coast was ranked last for team-to-opponent tackles differential, averaging 8.7 tackles fewer than their opponents, 2.0 clear of the 17th ranked side. They were also 16th in team-to-opponent disposals differential, averaging 51.2 fewer than their opponents. The 15th ranked side averaged 16.8 fewer. They also averaged 6.5 fewer goals per game.

This year, the Gold Coast now ranks fourth overall for the tackles differential stat, averaging 4 tackles more than their opponents. The disposal differential stat has also improved, now averaging 13.6 fewer per game. They now average only 1.1 fewer goals per game.

Melbourne in 2013 averages more than 100 fewer disposals than opponents, 9.2 fewer goals, and 3.2 fewer tackles. Our average losing margin is 76.

Last year, Guy McKenna was in his second year with a young list. This year, Mark Neeld is in his second year with a young list.

You can probably get a sense of my point by now.

I don't necessarily believe that in 2014 we'll be playing as well as the Gold Coast is in 2013. What I do believe, though, is that what we're hearing from Neeld and, implicitly or otherwise, Jackson and the Board, is that the lack of time Neeld has had with his players is hampering our ability to judge where we're at, and that with more time, improvement is clearly possible.

Yes, there are differences. The Gold Coast has Ablett. True. But they had Ablett last year too. Our averages are worse than Gold Coast's this year. True. But disposals aside, not by a significant amount. We're also a better tackling side than they were, so there are some aspects in which we're not as bad as they were. Some may say Melbourne's performances have been way worse. At times, true. But the Gold Coast were pretty rank last year. Their 'performance' against West Coast was just as bad as ours against Essendon.

They attracted similar negativity and criticism as what we're getting; some of what I have found in a five minute Google search includes this, and this.

But the fact of it is that the Gold Coast brought a bunch of kids together and started getting games into them as a group. They've persisted with this group, and the group is now beginning to mature. The step has been taken from boys to men, albeit men who tire and still aren't fantastic. But they're men who can compete with men more often, for longer, and can beat them at their best. They're playing at levels that are modest, but those modest levels are exceedingly more than what they were producing last year.

If anything, this should be at least a source of hope for MFC supporters.

Did you notice how the gold coast started running out of legs in the last Qtr,,, & when the Catters applied extra heat, the Suns started packing up they're blowup lounges, ready for the trip home.