AFL Round 8

[45HG 1,559]

The season settles...?

West Coast v North Melbourne

Two decent sides will go toe-to-toe on Friday night footy.

Form: Both sides getting back to some high-quality touch

Form vs each other: West Coast have won the last 4

Eagles' favour: With NN back, they look potent, smooth and confident once again. The unstoppable Dean Cox loves his home patch when his ruck mate is in town and that should continue on tomorrow. West Coast's midfield is classy and multi-pronged - working in favour of their much-vaunted forward line. They should get enough opportunities to do damage with the ball coming out of the middle.

Roos' favour: Daw's form with Petrie up front is ominous and their workmanlike midfield have got some deserved wins in the past fortnight. They'll be praying that their skipper gets up for the contest.

Verdict: WC will get too much easily ball through the middle and their targets will be too numerous to stop. North will have their chances throughout the match and will likely take them, but the WC press will be back in full swing and they should be too good.

Tip: WC by 25

Essendon v Brisbane

Form: Very good v average

Form vs each other: 2 and 2 and a draw from their last 5.

Bombers' favour: Faced their first big challenge last week and came up short - but were hardly disgraced. Better use of the footy around goal in the middle stretch could have seen a very different result. They like this ground and should do a job with their rampant midfield.

Lions' favour: May have found a bit of fight and form last week against the Eagles - pushing them for much of the game until the last 20 minutes. Hanley, Rockliff and Moloney have been dangerous but this could be a Sydney repeat for the Lions when they face a midfield that loves to attack the footy, run hard and run forward.

Verdict: Essendon are in too good-a-form and have too many winners over the ground to be seriously tested against the Lions.

Tip: Bombers by 58

Hawthorn v GWS

Form: Very good v terrible

Form vs each other: Played once. Hawks won by 162

Hawks' favour: They're the best team in the comp.

Giants' favour: This game isn't being played on mainland and, hopefully for their sake, won't be seen by many. Perhaps they're riding the young team one up one down merry-go-round.

Verdict: Pretty simple. This could be anything.

My tip: Hawks by 157

Gold Coast v Footscray

Form: Good v OK

Form vs each other: Bulldogs have won all 3

Suns' favour: They have some up and about midfielders who seem to now understand their role, know where to run and how to tackle. Gold Coast know how to sneak a goal and how to work one - especially up there. Have been disappointing twice this season.

Dogs' favour: In 2 out of the past 3 weeks they have seriously pushed two teams of much higher quality. Cross, Boyd, Cooney and Griffin are all in form - this allows the Bulldogs lesser lights to escape scrutiny and for the Dogs to be more competitive than they'd otherwise be.

Verdict: This should be a tough game. Much will come down to the midfields and the form of Liam Jones. Added to this will be whether or not Charlie Dixon is up for the game - you'd be tempted to rush him back for it. The Dogs aren't easy to roll but I feel the plucky youngsters from up North are ready to take the next step and move to 4-4

Tip: Suns by 21

Collingwood v Geelong

Form: Average v Tops

Form vs each other: Collingwood won the last two but haven't beaten Geelong in an odd year since 2005.

Pies' favour: On paper they're much better than they're playing. This could be the test some of their big names need to step up and play the footy they've played before. Lynch has lost some of his early form and this has halted the Pies' forwardline somewhat. Star names through the middle and handy forwards mean you can never write this mob oss.

Cats' favour: They just win. 7-0 with an average winning margin of 20 and percentage of 121 points to the quality of opposition Geelong have played but also the way they simply win games of footy - whether they're playing well or not. Collingwood's propensity to leak goals and Geelong's ability to ram home multiple goals in a short space of time could, again, be what gets them over the line. It's risky business, however, and if Collingwood's defence stands up they could be in trouble.

Verdict: This may be the challenge that Collingwood need but I don't think they can beat the Cats who know how to get up in the big games.

Tip: Cats by 11

Sydney v Fremantle

Form: Very good v BORING

Form vs each other: 3-3 from last 6.

Swans' favour: So much talent. So much grunt. So many ball winners who tackle hard, run hard and kick goals.

Dockers' favour: Their game style works well against Sydney I feel. They close down space, don't allow easy ball forward and can take out opposition champions.

Verdict: Swans, at home, will get over the line but it won't be all their own way.

Tip: Swans by 15

Carlton v Port Adelaide

Form: Pretenders vs Pretenders

Form vs each other: Carlton have won 5 of the last 6.

Blues' favour: 20 minutes of footy nearly stole a game they had no right to win. On the same ground, this should give their players enough confidence to get up.

Power's favour: A great start to the year will be fresh in the players' minds and if they can lay hard tackles and play pressure footy they should get push the Blues the whole way.

Verdict: Carlton have a massively soft underbelly that will be exposed time and again this season. Port Adelaide beat up on trash early on and the bubble has now well and truly burst.

Tip: Carlton by 28

Richmond v Melbourne

Form: Back on the winner's list vs can't find their most recent winner's list

Form vs each other: Tigers have won the last 3

Tigers' favour: Back in form with a win over the Power on the road with missing talent. They have too much midfield grunt, too many goalkickers and too many skillful, passionate players who don't go to water when the slightest amount of pressure is applied (save for the standard 20 minutes of "Richmond football" that occurs each week).

Dees' favour: There could be some terrible, terrible weather.

Verdict: It is mind-boggling, heartbreaking and disgusting to think that, two years ago, these two teams played off essentially for the title of the incumbent rising Victorian club, with the winner going into favouritism to make finals. The Dees won comfortably by 5 or so goals. Within two years, Richmond are pushing for finals and Melbourne are a disgrace. They'll simply be far too good. Last year they won by 23 points (2.11) but they won't be so profligate again.

My tip: Tigers by 78

Adelaide v St Kilda

Form: Mid-table madness

Form vs each other: 3-3 in the last 6

Crows' favour: Home form is always an advantage for this mob. Much-maligned this season, but their form really hasn't been that bad. Destroyed GWS, pushed Hawthorn and Carlton (with injuries) all the way, thrashed the Dogs, lead the Showdown for most of it, rolled Brisbane up North and disappointed against the Bombers. They have tough midfielders who like to attack the hard-ball.

Saints' favour: Riewoldt is in career-best form and Jack Steven is a jet.

Verdict: The Crows will be too good in front of their home crowd, Dangermouse will be up and about and Tom Lynch has no doubt spent all week watching highlights of Godra.

Tip: Crows by 35

Game of the Round

Cats Pies

Thrashing of the Round

Hawks Giants

Toughest to Pick

Suns Dogs / Cats Pies

Upset of the Round

Pies/Dogs

Closest tip last week

Missed Eagles by 1 point

[RalphiusMaximus 6,098]

Toughest to Pick

Suns Dogs / Cats Pies

Upset of the Round

Pies/Dogs

I largely agree with your write-up, but I'm not sure that the two toughest matches to pick can also be considered the biggest upsets if one side gets up. Surely if it's a massive upset then it should have been an easy game to predict (even incorrectly)?

Personally, I am hoping (but not daring to pick) that the big upset will be a chastised and fired up Melbourne side going ape on an overconfident Richmond and pipping them in a low-scoring, hard tackling grindfest. Not THAT would be an upset!

[bing181 9,332]

Excellent work again. Would rather read this than wade through the various sites, and helps keep the footy interesting.

A few close games, on form at least, and we get to see whether Collingwood are really done or not.

[P-man 13,366]

Great work again HG.

I think the "boring" tag gets placed upon Freo a bit too readily, and unfairly. Yes, Lyon plays a very staunch defensive game, but the ferocity with which his players pressure the ball carrier and attempt to keep the ball trapped at their attacking end is a joy to watch. And now with Hill and Pearce to give them outside run on both sides of the ground, the manner in which they carry the ball forward is entertaining as a neutral. Also worth noting is that two of the three most exciting games I've seen this year have involved Freo (v Essendon and Tigers), the third being Port's miracle win against West Coast.

[Ted Lasso 19,549]

Great work again HG.

I think the "boring" tag gets placed upon Freo a bit too readily, and unfairly. Yes, Lyon plays a very staunch defensive game, but the ferocity with which his players pressure the ball carrier and attempt to keep the ball trapped at their attacking end is a joy to watch. And now with Hill and Pearce to give them outside run on both sides of the ground, the manner in which they carry the ball forward is entertaining as a neutral. Also worth noting is that two of the three most exciting games I've seen this year have involved Freo (v Essendon and Tigers), the third being Port's miracle win against West Coast.

I am really keen to see how good Freo are at full strength, i have tipped them to finish top 4

[45HG 1,559]

I largely agree with your write-up, but I'm not sure that the two toughest matches to pick can also be considered the biggest upsets if one side gets up. Surely if it's a massive upset then it should have been an easy game to predict (even incorrectly)?

Personally, I am hoping (but not daring to pick) that the big upset will be a chastised and fired up Melbourne side going ape on an overconfident Richmond and pipping them in a low-scoring, hard tackling grindfest. Not THAT would be an upset!

Good spot RM. I suppose my "upset" tip is based, too readily perhaps, on the odds for the round. I think I started off going off the cuff but perhaps rely too much on the betting agencies - a sad sign of the times. Mind you - I think to tip an upset is usually to understand the danger such a pick entails.

I'd love to see your upset come to the fore - the Melbourne boys will need to approach the game with confidence, aggression and (dare I say as it's an underestimated quality) a bit of flare and attack.

Great work again HG.

I think the "boring" tag gets placed upon Freo a bit too readily, and unfairly. Yes, Lyon plays a very staunch defensive game, but the ferocity with which his players pressure the ball carrier and attempt to keep the ball trapped at their attacking end is a joy to watch. And now with Hill and Pearce to give them outside run on both sides of the ground, the manner in which they carry the ball forward is entertaining as a neutral. Also worth noting is that two of the three most exciting games I've seen this year have involved Freo (v Essendon and Tigers), the third being Port's miracle win against West Coast.

Good feedback P_Man. I rate them as such simply because their games are, largely, dull to watch. They may be exciting at the last because of the margin between the teams but, I think, this owes more to neither side being able to extend the margin and thus leaving a close margin at the end. Essentially, however, this will generally make for an exciting game and, at least, a tough game. You're right that their players play with passion and with Fyfe back they may have enough counter-attack to hurt the Swans if the Swans don't make the most from their forward opportunities.

Excellent work again. Would rather read this than wade through the various sites, and helps keep the footy interesting.

A few close games, on form at least, and we get to see whether Collingwood are really done or not.

Thanks mate.