11 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

As mentioned in Guess the Lines teams that are 6+ point favourites are 2-15 against the spread so far and have 9 losses straight up!

I had a decent multi going this week, Philly/Vikings/Colts/Seattle/Bucs of course the Bucs as heavy home favourites cost me a 20-1 return 🤦

I did get 8-1 on Sal's favourite tip though, Chargers-Steelers double (ie Steelers to trail at halftime and win the game). Already got up twice in 3 weeks this year.

I've been absolutely miles off and in the last 5 or 6 years, the NFL has been really hard to read.  So many upsets and we used to see more spreads of 10+ on a regular basis.  The lines are much tighter these days 

KC -8.5 @ the Chargers is uninticing but the Chiefs might slip into gear.  Same story for the 49ers at home (-10.5)

Both teams will probably win but I don't like either line.  The Chargers are the value as are the Texans

But what would I know?  haha

Cincinnati 

Dallas

Kansas City

@Dr. Gonzo

So which team is your stone cold lock this week?  Home or away

Anyone else got one?

Mine is Houston -4.5

Edited September 24, 20241 yr by Macca

Steelers, Chiefs, Titans

11 hours ago, Macca said:

@Dr. Gonzo

So which team is your stone cold lock this week?  Home or away

Anyone else got one?

Mine is Houston -4.5

It's a very tough week this week I think, but then again I probably say that every week!

My stone cold lock straight up would be the Chiefs, I can't see them losing to a Chargers team minus Justin Herbert. The line is quite high but the Chargers hit the wall in the 2nd half against the Steelers and if the Chiefs can stop Dobbins making runs it should be a pretty easy win against their main rival for the division.

If I'm picking against the spread I'd probably go the Bills at +2.5, the Ravens have been overrun the last 2 weeks and were lucky the Cowboys ran out of time. They have to figure it out with Lamar and Henry as a huge 1-2 punch but for some reason they can get out to a 2+ score lead but then teams reel them in. Is it the defense? Tucker hasn't been his usual reliable self which might be adding to it. On the other hand the Bills are on fire the last 2 weeks destroying both Miami and the Jags. I'm also tempted by Titans at -1.5 going against either Skylar Thompson or Tim Boyle, Will Levis has made some horrible turnovers but also has a cannon for an arm and made some big throws against the Jets last week. The Titans defense is solid though and I think they will feast on whoever is at QB for the Dolphins. Thompson was sacked 5 times before being injured so the Miami O-line is doing their backup QBs no favours.

Texans I was high on early but I don't trust them yet after the last 2 weeks. Let's see how they go over the next month.

Edited September 25, 20241 yr by Dr. Gonzo

Bleacher Report Week4-NFL-Power-Rankings-where-does-every-team-stand

1 - KC

2 - Bills

3 - Vikes

4 - Lions

5 - Eagles

6 - Steelers

7 - Seattle

8 - Texans

9 - Packers

10 - Saints

11 - Bucs

12 - 49ers

Others

13 - Jets

16 - Rams

17 - Dallas

19 - Atlanta

25 - Bears

29 - Jags

Steelers,  Chiefs, Bills

Eagles

Chiefs

Bengals

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It's a very tough week this week I think, but then again I probably say that every week!

My stone cold lock straight up would be the Chiefs, I can't see them losing to a Chargers team minus Justin Herbert. The line is quite high but the Chargers hit the wall in the 2nd half against the Steelers and if the Chiefs can stop Dobbins making runs it should be a pretty easy win against their main rival for the division.

If I'm picking against the spread I'd probably go the Bills at +2.5, the Ravens have been overrun the last 2 weeks and were lucky the Cowboys ran out of time. They have to figure it out with Lamar and Henry as a huge 1-2 punch but for some reason they can get out to a 2+ score lead but then teams reel them in. Is it the defense? Tucker hasn't been his usual reliable self which might be adding to it. On the other hand the Bills are on fire the last 2 weeks destroying both Miami and the Jags. I'm also tempted by Titans at -1.5 going against either Skylar Thompson or Tim Boyle, Will Levis has made some horrible turnovers but also has a cannon for an arm and made some big throws against the Jets last week. The Titans defense is solid though and I think they will feast on whoever is at QB for the Dolphins. Thompson was sacked 5 times before being injured so the Miami O-line is doing their backup QBs no favours.

Texans I was high on early but I don't trust them yet after the last 2 weeks. Let's see how they go over the next month.

Good summary, Gonzo

That gives us 2 x Stone Cold Locks

Bills +2.5 & Houston -4.5

1 or 2 others here might come up with a 1 or 2 more

Might end up with 4 or 5 at the line

Big game for Dallas on Friday and for those us who have streaming/cable and also get the public holiday off, we get to watch the game live!

 

 

Anyone else use Gamepass on DAZN? I generally watch it through apple tv or on Sony android tv but looking at getting a streaming device to setup in the study on my old "dumb" tv. Wondering if anyone has used it with Chromecast and how that goes? It's a bit of a dodgy app so in a bit worried how it would go watching live games over wifi. Other options are to get another AppleTV or just get a new cheapo tv but again not sure how stable that would be.

Eagles

Chiefs

Bills

 

10 hours ago, Macca said:

Good summary, Gonzo

That gives us 2 x Stone Cold Locks

Bills +2.5 & Houston -4.5

1 or 2 others here might come up with a 1 or 2 more

Might end up with 4 or 5 at the line

Gonzo's Lead pipe lock of the week

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Anyone else use Gamepass on DAZN? I generally watch it through apple tv or on Sony android tv but looking at getting a streaming device to setup in the study on my old "dumb" tv. Wondering if anyone has used it with Chromecast and how that goes? It's a bit of a dodgy app so in a bit worried how it would go watching live games over wifi. Other options are to get another AppleTV or just get a new cheapo tv but again not sure how stable that would be.

I haven't Gonzo but you could consider an Amazon Fire Stick. Those apps are usually well optimised on Fire Stick, streaming Kayo has been a dream. 

5 minutes ago, layzie said:

Gonzo's Lead pipe lock of the week

Ha!

In horse racing, likely winners are called 'Morals' but no one in the industry is allowed to use the M word (so it's often used after the event which suits no one!) 

@layzie

So have you got a 'Moral' for us this week?  

New England +10.5?  haha

Dallas Rams KC

40 minutes ago, Macca said:

@layzie

So have you got a 'Moral' for us this week?  

New England +10.5?  haha

I'll take it.

Brissett to throw 4 TDs. 

9 minutes ago, layzie said:

I'll take it.

Brissett to throw 4 TDs. 

Have you got your 3 key offense players back?  

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

Have you got your 3 key offense players back?  

- CMC on IR

- Deebo likely out

- Kittle and Purdy day to day

On top of that Bosa battling a rib injury, Hargrave out for the season, Chavarius Ward banged up.

Short answer: No

7 minutes ago, layzie said:

- CMC on IR

- Deebo likely out

- Kittle and Purdy day to day

On top of that Bosa battling a rib injury, Hargrave out for the season, Chavarius Ward banged up.

Short answer: No

And New England went into Cinci and won!

+10.5 Pats looks a Lead Pipe Lock/Stone Cold Lock/ Moral/Certainty!!

So far (we don't need more than 5 picks to get it up to 25-1*)

Bills +2.5

Texans -4.5

Pats +10.5

 

 

*Gamble responsibly

Cowboys, Steelers Chiefs 

And my ‘Moral’ for the week is….don’t ever follow Dee Zephyr’s tips 

Dallas, Cincy, KC

cowboys

eagles

chiefs