Backing Jamar [Thread bumped - poll disabled]

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Pity we didn't land Hale or Jacobs in that draft period.

[DeeSpencer 25,701]

Krue(t)zer? Not in the same league as Grundy for instant success. Agree with rpfc though. Ruckman do take time, why waste that time when you can draft once they have developed?

Adel - Jacobs - originally rookie, traded for picks 34 and 67

Bris - Leueny - pick 4

Carl - Kreuzer - pick 1

Coll - Grundy - pick 20

Essendon - Ryder/Bellchambers - Pick 7, PSD

Freo - Sandilands - rookied aged 20

Geel - Dawson Simpson - pick 34

Gold Coast - Zac Smith - Queensland zone selection as teenager, would've been a high pick

GWS - Mumford - rookied aged 21, traded for pick 35

Hawthorn - McEvoy - originally pick 5, traded for pick 18

Melbourne - Gawn drafted pick 34 or Jamar rookie pick aged 19

North - Todd Goldstein - pick 37

Port - Lobbe - pick 16

Richmond - Maric - drafted at pick 40, traded for pick 37

St Kilda - Hickey, original zone selection, traded with pick 24 for pick 12

Sydney - Mike Pyke - signed at age 24 as a rookie, took until age 28 to really show his talent in 2012

West Coast - Nic Nat - pick 2

Will Minson - Pick 20

So the majority of the league drafted their first choice ruck with high picks. A few clubs traded in but usually paid a decent price and the original club often got a return on investment. Their are a bunch of back up rucks from later pathways but the majority of the best rucks in the country showed talent at 18 and were developed from there.

So the only guys 21 or older when drafted who are now first rucks are Mumford and Pyke. And their are exceptional circumstances to both I would argue. For one Pyke had never heard of the game and was playing rugby. If he was born in Australia he might have been drafted at age 18 with his physical traits. And Mumford was sucking down 15 sausages until he was aged 20 and moved from country footy to Geelong VFL.

So I'm firmly in the case of drafting rucks if they are value in the late second or third round or even earlier if you have a Grundy fall in your lap or an outrageous talent like Leueny or Nic Nat. I'm certainly in the case of trading for a ruck if you get your timing right and get value ie. Maric, Jacobs or Mumford (or Jolly before that). But I'm not convinced you can sit back and wait for a mature state league ruck to come good then be drafted and expect a top player.

I don't see Tom Derickx, Jack Hannath, Jon Giles or Dan Currie's name on this list do you?

[rpfc 28,422]

Adel - Jacobs - originally rookie, traded for picks 34 and 67

Bris - Leueny - pick 4

Carl - Kreuzer - pick 1

Coll - Grundy - pick 20

Essendon - Ryder/Bellchambers - Pick 7, PSD

Freo - Sandilands - rookied aged 20

Geel - Dawson Simpson - pick 34

Gold Coast - Zac Smith - Queensland zone selection as teenager, would've been a high pick

GWS - Mumford - rookied aged 21, traded for pick 35

Hawthorn - McEvoy - originally pick 5, traded for pick 18

Melbourne - Gawn drafted pick 34 or Jamar rookie pick aged 19

North - Todd Goldstein - pick 37

Port - Lobbe - pick 16

Richmond - Maric - drafted at pick 40, traded for pick 37

St Kilda - Hickey, original zone selection, traded with pick 24 for pick 12

Sydney - Mike Pyke - signed at age 24 as a rookie, took until age 28 to really show his talent in 2012

West Coast - Nic Nat - pick 2

Will Minson - Pick 20

So the majority of the league drafted their first choice ruck with high picks. A few clubs traded in but usually paid a decent price and the original club often got a return on investment. Their are a bunch of back up rucks from later pathways but the majority of the best rucks in the country showed talent at 18 and were developed from there.

So the only guys 21 or older when drafted who are now first rucks are Mumford and Pyke. And their are exceptional circumstances to both I would argue. For one Pyke had never heard of the game and was playing rugby. If he was born in Australia he might have been drafted at age 18 with his physical traits. And Mumford was sucking down 15 sausages until he was aged 20 and moved from country footy to Geelong VFL.

So I'm firmly in the case of drafting rucks if they are value in the late second or third round or even earlier if you have a Grundy fall in your lap or an outrageous talent like Leueny or Nic Nat. I'm certainly in the case of trading for a ruck if you get your timing right and get value ie. Maric, Jacobs or Mumford (or Jolly before that). But I'm not convinced you can sit back and wait for a mature state league ruck to come good then be drafted and expect a top player.

I don't see Tom Derickx, Jack Hannath, Jon Giles or Dan Currie's name on this list do you?

And yet, the most dominate ruckman of this generation was a rookie?

What about all the mistakes with ruckmen as early picks? They happen to affect the argument.

Of course you pick the talents when they demand it, but a rucks value doing ruckwork takes 5 years to materialise if they are taken as teenagers. That's a rule with few exceptions.

[DeeSpencer 25,701]

And yet, the most dominate ruckman of this generation was a rookie?

What about all the mistakes with ruckmen as early picks? They happen to affect the argument.

Of course you pick the talents when they demand it, but a rucks value doing ruckwork takes 5 years to materialise if they are taken as teenagers. That's a rule with few exceptions.

My point is 12 out of 18 rucks were drafted and developed over time and picked at age 20 or younger. 5 more were traded for. Only 1 other (Pike) was drafted as a mature age player and he still took 4 years to show anything good. Therefore your original point that said "We should not draft a teenage ruck with an early pick or in the ND" seems to me to be completely wrong as the majority of clubs (particularly if you include Smith as value of a likely early ND pick and Hickey as a ND pick) took teenage rucks and developed them in to their starters.

2004 draft - 8 Meesen (probably wouldn't have made it but injury ruined his career), 18 Cam Wood. Both players did get traded for reasonable picks at some stage

2005 draft - 7 Ryder, 18 - Bailey. Quality ruck who can play forward, premiership ruck who could've been better and for longer if not for shocking injury luck

2006 draft - 4 Leuenberger, 17 Hampson, 24 Renouf. So a gun, a pretty average player who still got traded for a low 30's pick and a premiership player who then got traded away for something

2007 draft - 1 Kreuzer, 9 McEvoy 17 Lobbe - 3 starting ruckman who can all impact games

2008 draft - 2 Nic Nat (gun) 14 Cordy (F/S), 25 Redden - more touch and go here but these guys aren't fully matured yet

Above is the rucks picked in the top 30 from those drafts. In fairness it's actually more consistent than some of the key forwards and other positions taken in the draft. Consider 2004's wipe out. Those rucks are probably better than Mathew Bate and Adam Pattison as key forwards.

It seems to me if you draft a ruck high up and develop him a bit at worst you'll get a return when trading as clubs will look to get the real value steal of a slow developing ruck (ie. Maric at Richmond). But Renouf, Meesen and Cam Wood showed trading for a ruck may be harder than drafting one.

[rpfc 28,422]

Wait, you are claiming rucks getting traded as backing up your point?

The team that traded for them is backing up my point.

I will have a look a the drafts today.

[Nasher 33,616]

Martin and Fitzpatrick are the players currently on our list that fit the mould, but I'm not sure the former is good enough and the latter is not likely to come on enough this year to provide adequate cover. There's no science behind my assessment of Fitzpatrick, just gut feeling.

Spencer I see as a first ruck - I think he'll develop in to a good ruckman - a poor man's Jamar perhaps. He's aggressive and likes to hit bodies, has shown that he has the ability to take a grab (without being able to do it consistently), but I don't think he provides the forward line threat that we would want for a second ruck/forward yet. He's also got the obvious problem that he's hopelessly unco, but I think there's every chance that will improve with age.

Don't know enough about Gawn other than the fact that he's a man mountain and by all reports, fairly mobile for his size. I think he'd be years away from being a threat to anyone or anything.

Dunn, Sylvia and Newton are third last, second last and absolute last resorts in that order. Plan X, Y and Z if you will.

So basically, if we are unable to pick up any ruck-forward this trade period, we're relying on Fitzpatrick to come on sooner than expected, or Martin to come on full stop. It's not the ideal position to be in as you've not mitigated the significant risk that neither player will be of any use next year. I'm hopeful that the feelers are still out for someone to play in the role we had earmarked for Hale, but I have no idea who that could be. Mature aged player from a second tier competition?

I'm pretty happy with the view I took in 2010.

[DeeSpencer 25,701]

Wait, you are claiming rucks getting traded as backing up your point?

The team that traded for them is backing up my point.

I will have a look a the drafts today.

Trade successes: Maric, Jacobs, Mumford and wait and see on McEvoy and Hickey (and Longer)

Trade fails: Meesen, Cam Wood, Renouf, Seaby, wait and see on Hampson

My point about trading from either direction - buying or selling - is it can be positive for both arguments.

Overall from 2004 to 2008 all young rucks drafted in the top 30 either became their teams starting ruck or at some point were traded away for a pick of some value. That tells me picking a ruck in the top 30 is a reasonably sound investment. I'd wait a few years to see where Gawn, Spencer, Clark and Fitzpatrick end up but from then on I'd be more than happy if the club used a high draft pick on a ruck. In the mean time I'd be just as happy putting an 18 year old on the rookie list as some state league 25 year old because more young guys seem to make it long term than back up old guys. The exception to that is I'd be very interested to get one of these big american lads that Roos has been working with at the swans academy.

[InVINCEable 358]

Trade successes: Maric, Jacobs, Mumford and wait and see on McEvoy and Hickey (and Longer)

Trade fails: Meesen, Cam Wood, Renouf, Seaby, wait and see on Hampson

My point about trading from either direction - buying or selling - is it can be positive for both arguments.

Overall from 2004 to 2008 all young rucks drafted in the top 30 either became their teams starting ruck or at some point were traded away for a pick of some value. That tells me picking a ruck in the top 30 is a reasonably sound investment. I'd wait a few years to see where Gawn, Spencer, Clark and Fitzpatrick end up but from then on I'd be more than happy if the club used a high draft pick on a ruck. In the mean time I'd be just as happy putting an 18 year old on the rookie list as some state league 25 year old because more young guys seem to make it long term than back up old guys. The exception to that is I'd be very interested to get one of these big american lads that Roos has been working with at the swans academy.

Fitzpatrick will evolve into a Westhoff type and cement his place in the forward line, Clark will be a star if he stays injury free, Gawn will be our no. 1 ruckman soon, and i am not a fan of Spencer.

[rpfc 28,422]

Trade successes: Maric, Jacobs, Mumford and wait and see on McEvoy and Hickey (and Longer)

Trade fails: Meesen, Cam Wood, Renouf, Seaby, wait and see on Hampson

My point about trading from either direction - buying or selling - is it can be positive for both arguments.

Overall from 2004 to 2008 all young rucks drafted in the top 30 either became their teams starting ruck or at some point were traded away for a pick of some value. That tells me picking a ruck in the top 30 is a reasonably sound investment. I'd wait a few years to see where Gawn, Spencer, Clark and Fitzpatrick end up but from then on I'd be more than happy if the club used a high draft pick on a ruck. In the mean time I'd be just as happy putting an 18 year old on the rookie list as some state league 25 year old because more young guys seem to make it long term than back up old guys. The exception to that is I'd be very interested to get one of these big american lads that Roos has been working with at the swans academy.

I don't think trading away a ruckmen for a pick that is near the pick that it took to draft the ruckmen in the first place is anything other than a waste of years of development. It backs up my point - you are better off letting other teams or state leagues develop a ruckman for you and trade or draft them when they are better prepared for the AFL.

Drafting Ruckmen: All those early(ish) in the ND and the successes of the low risk PSD/RD

2000 - ND: Koschitzke (2), Angwin (7), Chapman (29)

2000 - PSD/RD: Campbell, Jolly

2001 - ND: Hale (7), Brooks (15), Seaby (22), Playfair (41)

2001 - PSD/RD: Jamar, Sandilands

2002 - ND: McIntosh (9), Laycock (10), N Smith (15), Minson (20), P Johnson (24)

2002 - PSD/RD: N/A

2003 - ND: Spaandermann (18), Blake (38)

2003 - PSD/RD: N/A

2004 - ND: Meesen (8), Pattison (16), Wood (18), A Hartlett (25), Ackland (33), F Deluca (35), Maric (40)

2004 - PSD/RD: Griffin

2005 - ND: Ryder (7), Clark (9), Bailey (18), West (31), Warnock (42), Rix (49)

2005 - PSD/RD: Graham

2006 - ND: Leuenberger (4), Sellar (14), Hampson (17), Renouf (24), Goldstein (37)

2006 - PSD/RD: N/A

2007 - ND: Kreuzer (1), McEvoy (9), Lobbe (18), Simpson (34)

2007 - PSD/RD: Bellchambers, Martin, Spencer, Mumford

2008 - ND: Naitanui (2), Vickery (8), Cordy (14), McKernan (28), J Roughead (31), Z Clarke (37)

2008 - PSD/RD: Pyke, Jacobs, Keeffe

2009 - ND: Gawn (34), Vardy (43), Fitzpatrick (50)

2009 - PSD/RD: Daw, Casboult

I can count the successes with early ND picks with one hand: Koschitzke, NikNat, Ryder, Leuenberger, and Kreuzer - and I count 19 failures in the top 30.

There are some good return in the 30s to 40s but the failures I see still out number the successes and the question marks.

I see 10 successes from the PSD/RD in those ten years.

Unless you have a sure talent like the 5 above (who were taken at 2, 2, 7, 4, and 1 oddly enough) you really shouldn't bother with taking teenage ruckmen until late in the ND or in the PSD/RD.

The ROI is quite terrible, even compared to other types of players in the Teenage Lottery Draft of the AFL.