It's not their senior players that are winning them games. Lloyd aside, their win over Carlton was led by the likes of Lovett, Stanton, Watson, Dempsey and Monfries, who aren't the 'senior' players at that club. McVeigh and Hille are on the right side of 30 too. So when they lose their senior players over the next 2 years, the impact will be similar to ours. But they've got what we don't have: pace, skill and an ability to score goals.

I agree with all of this. That win and the way they played was a serious eye opener. They had pace to burn and they backed themselves - Carlton had their work cut out for them all night. They seem to have brushed up on the skills as you say and quite significantly they looked more confident in 1 on 1 situations as well. When they play us it will be a great indicator of where we are at. Two young teams with a few seniors in them - one has pace and endurance and the other is static and slow.

Watching our insipid performance again today, it got me thinking about which teams we are ahead of on the "premiership clock". For example, Essendon are now running a young side and have been down for about the same time as us, yet still can put 4 good quarters together and be impressive. That's not something we are even near.

So my questions are:

- When do you think our premiership window is?

- Which teams are behind/ahead of us?

I think we will next be vying for a premiership in 2012, with a hope of low top 8 finish in 2011.

I think we are ahead of Freo, Richmond and North (who I don't think can win one without re-starting) and Syd. Ess, Carl, WCE, Adel are in my view ahead of us. I question whether we are ahead of Gold Coast.

Was watching game day a couple of weeks ago, and the Oz mentioned that Melbourne has a more advanced list that most teams in the AFL. We are ahead of Fremantle because they have never been in a grand final. We have just the 3 grand final players remaining James Mcdonald,Brad Green and Russell Robertson.

Was watching game day a couple of weeks ago, and the Oz mentioned that Melbourne has a more advanced list that most teams in the AFL. We are ahead of Fremantle because they have never been in a grand final. We have just the 3 grand final players remaining James Mcdonald, Brad Green and Russell Robertson.

IIRC it was his brother Anthony. I don't think James played that day.

IIRC it was his brother Anthony. I don't think James played that day.

Ok then my bad just the two Greeny and Robbo

Bruce would've played in the GF too but got injured before the match.

They're going to lose their three best players in the next year or two, and they'll struggle to replace Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher.

They are not ahead of us, they are just winning more games at the moment because their senior players [censored] all over ours. The difference is, when we lose our senior players, we won't be worse off (because by the time Bruce, Green, Robbo leave their replacements will be nicely developed), but when Essendon lose their senior players they'll go into serious after-shock.

Fremantle is another club who is in real trouble.

i think its safe to add the tigers to that list now, your points about the Dons could also be said for the swans

Fremantle , West Coast , Essendon , Sydney , Adelaide , Port , Brisbane , West Sydney , GC 17.

I don't think any of these sides are in a serious rebuilding phase and are nowhere near at having a crack. The next few years will be grim for them in terms of the draft. Last 2 are not in the comp yet so we are ahead of them aswell

Edit: I removed Richmond (had second thoughts)

Also tempted to add North.

Let me add the Flith too that. They got bugger all and not even close. The clubs ive mentioned above I think are dilusional and are nowhere near a flag yet not yet in any real rebuilding phase like we are. Therefore we are ahead

Bruce would've played in the GF too but got injured before the match.

And Green was on the ground for all of 3 minutes.

Pretty sure Whelan was injured as well

Was watching game day a couple of weeks ago, and the Oz mentioned that Melbourne has a more advanced list that most teams in the AFL. We are ahead of Fremantle because they have never been in a grand final. We have just the 3 grand final players remaining James Mcdonald,Brad Green and Russell Robertson.

Didnt Wheatley play??

Essendon are just a lloyd lucas and fletcher away from self destruction if it wasn't for lloyd carlton would have won. we are past midnight on the p'ship clock more like at 3 am. Seriously our window wont start until about 2013 at earliest.

Essendon are just a lloyd lucas and fletcher away from self destruction if it wasn't for lloyd carlton would have won. we are past midnight on the p'ship clock more like at 3 am. Seriously our window wont start until about 2013 at earliest.

Lloyd and Lucas barely got a touch last week and Fletcher didn't do too much (admittedly it was only against Freo).

As someone else mentioned it's their younger players providing the bulk of the drive. The team needs to get the ball to Lloyd for him to kick goals

Premiership teams have a few absolute champions. I can't see many champions coming through at Essendon, Fremantle, Richmond ... (or Collingwood for that matter - thank goodness)

The only new Melb player who has showed champion potential to date is Morton. The rest are potentially useful, but on their own won't be good enough. So, we have big hopes for Watts ....

Premiership teams have a few absolute champions. I can't see many champions coming through at Essendon, Fremantle, Richmond ... (or Collingwood for that matter - thank goodness)

exactly.

i've had this debate with a bomber friend of mine who is adamant that the champion players aren't critical. i don't think bomber fans realize how good they have had it with champion players in recent times, but it looks like they will be experiencing not having any for a while. they will be competitive but they are a million miles away from contesting a flag. lloyd, fletcher, and lucas will be massive losses regardless of their current output.

exactly.

i've had this debate with a bomber friend of mine who is adamant that the champion players aren't critical

Correct just look at the Bulldogs.

Well, you have to think if Melbourne have any champion players (if any) or any young players coming through. I could imagine Watts as a champion forward in years to come but we have had a couple retire last year in Neitz and Yze. Those two players had lead us to several finals series from 2006 and before.

We are ahead of Richmond and Fremantle.

Essendon is well in front of us.

Do you reckon? What about their old guys who are near retirement? Lloyd, Lucas, Fletcher to name a few. We haven't got too many grandfathers have we?

Hille...near retirement?

Hille...near retirement?

Sorry, meant Fletcher.

Whilst I can see that side of the argument, I really don't think Lucas has done much for a while and Fletcher is filling the gaps while the younger guys gain experience - for example on Saturday he didn't man Fev, but blocked the hole for him much of the time.

I think they have enough youngsters to come through with confidence. You'd be nuts to talk down their youngsters whilst talking up our own

This is all subjective but I would have thought the following teams will have a chance in the next 5 years to win a flag: Geelong (duh), Hawthorn (incredibly young), St Kilda (provided JK stays fit and NR doesn't go north), Bulldogs (provided dominance from the middle), and Carlton (until Fevola gives it away, and also dependent on midfield dominance).

The other teams I think can be considered ill equipped to challenge in the short to medium term future, possible exceptions would have to be Brisbane and Adelaide.

But they both could fall into the category of good teams that are do not have the personnel to challenge for a flag because of massive holes in their lists or looming retirements: PA, Rich, Ess, and Syd.

Collingwood and North have youngish lists but massive structural deficiencies and a lack of class.

Freo, WCE, and Melbourne are in rebuild mode.

It's arguable whether we are further along than WCE, but I think if we are talking about ability to win a flag in the next 7-10 years we would be running at around 8th favourite.

And with the next 5 years destined to be dominated by Hawthorn and Geelong, we might be ahead of a dozen clubs when their grip on the competition loosens.

Correct just look at the Bulldogs.

yeah look at them, they have done nothing more than us and other teams in recent years, when was last bulldog GF appearance let alone a flag

Fremantle , West Coast , Essendon , Sydney , Adelaide , Port , Brisbane , West Sydney , GC 17.

I don't think any of these sides are in a serious rebuilding phase and are nowhere near at having a crack. The next few years will be grim for them in terms of the draft. Last 2 are not in the comp yet so we are ahead of them aswell

Edit: I removed Richmond (had second thoughts)

Also tempted to add North.

Let me add the Flith too that. They got bugger all and not even close. The clubs ive mentioned above I think are dilusional and are nowhere near a flag yet not yet in any real rebuilding phase like we are. Therefore we are ahead

So what you're saying is that we are in front of all teams except Geelong, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Carlton and Richmond? I would say that Essendon, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, possibly Adelaide as well are all in front of us.

So what you're saying is that we are in front of all teams except Geelong, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Carlton and Richmond? I would say that Essendon, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, possibly Adelaide as well are all in front of us.

I don't think there's any doubt that Adelaide are ahead of us. Their senior players are far better than ours (Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards, Thompson, Rutten, Bock, Burton), they have a quality group of young- to mid-20s (van Berlo, Vince, Johncock, Porplyzia, Stevens) and they have some gun kids coming through too (Walker, Dangerfield, Petrenko). We will not finish ahead of Adelaide for three or fours years at least. Pains me to say this, but it's true. Many people in Melbourne are underestimating Adelaide.