who's going to struggle the most with the draft concessions?

[hillie 41]

With the introduction of 2 new teams the afl is disrupting the natural cycle, where the draft allows those teams at the bottom of the ladder a method of climbing back up. The natural cycle is being intereupted and we're not going to be given our full and uncompromised opportunity using the draft to rebuild. It really pisses me off that the AFL just goes and changes the rules on us when these rules are in the process of helping us out. St Kilda, WB, Richmond and Carlton have all had their chance to rebuild over recent years and we're partially getting done over. It is my belief that that we have another year of pain and struggle ahead of us, so we will probable have another early pick. but hopefully that will really be it before we see a rise to greater things. so hopefully we will miss the worst of things, albeit by the skin of our teeth.

If the age concessions given to the GC for the 2009 draft were in place in 2008, then they would have been able to sign players such as Watts and Blease due to their age. Although options such as Butcher, Scully and Lucas are possibly open to in next years draft if we do not perform all that well, who knows who we could be missing out on. Whilst no time is ideal to be at the bottom, i really hope we are not at the bottom at the end of 2010 and beyond because those teams will really be shafted. At this time, most of the first 15 draft picks will be off limits to teams, unless traded for. This interuption to the cycle will put teams back 15-20 years in terms of they will have to wait to start the cycle again. I am hopeful we will be back vying for finals and that elusive premiership and not still at the bottom of the cycle in 2010 and beyond. I do believe the end may not be to far away for the club if that were to be the case.

Continueing with this theory i'm interested in seeing which teams people think will be most affected by the interuption the GC and WS teams will have on the cycle of the draft. I really feel teams will be affected and spend more time in the bottom bracket because they don't have a full pick of the best available talent when they would have in previous years.

Personally i have thought the kangas would struggle the past two years and be down the bottom, especially when thompson did his knee a few years back , but they have proven me wrong. you can never write them off. I guess they really can't afford to struggle on field as well. i know freo hasn't performed that well over the last couple of years but i think with their ageing list, partly due to past recruitment of players from other clubs for draft picks, i think they may be down the bottom for a while. I think that they're behind us in the rebuilding phase for some reason, and so they may well be hurt more than others by the draft concessions allowed to the new teams.

[LeBron James 41]

I was going to say the Kangas as well. They are rooted. Same with Sydney, but the AFL will find a way to bail Sydney out.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

Sydney will just keep topping with ready made players like they always do.

[Demon_Tingles 211]

I was wondering when the two new teams come in will it be a final 9 or 8 that fight for the flag

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Personally i have thought the kangas would struggle the past two years and be down the bottom, especially when thompson did his knee a few years back , but they have proven me wrong. you can never write them off.

Love the Kangas... But to be honest, I'd be more than a bit concerned if I was supporting them. I reckon they're doing what we did from 2004-06... Making the finals, and for a few rounds every year looking like the real thing... the only difference is they made it into the top 4 and THEN got bundled out.

But as far as their picks go, while they haven't done a TERRIBLE job with recruiting, they're a long way off having the best youth in the country. They can't rely on Harvey for all their success, and he's shouldering a lot of the load for them. Past him it's a list of players that are a fair way off "champion" level... Petrie's a good example. He had a great year, but how many more will he have?

As for the GC thing... One of the things that pleases me is that we had the Morton year, then the Watts year... then we have the coming bottoming-out year which, if we go badly enough, could get us Butcher and Scully... which would pretty much complete the forward line and midfield, to go with a deep if unspectacular defence.

What pleases me is not the above, which is the obvious... What I like is that in the years following '09, we will (hopefully) go up the ladder, but not go up in a huge leap. We could go from 16th this year, to 11th, then 9th... and from there launch our premiership campaign. In those other years where our spine is maturing and learning the ropes, we would STILL get to recruit (hypthetically) a pick #6, followed by a #8... In years gone by players taken around there include guys like Vickery, Leuenberger... I reckon we could even snaffle a Hurley in there somewhere. These are the players talked about JUST AFTER the big 3, or big 4 that you get every year. And they tend to be only rated after the leaders because of some tiny perceived inadequecy. Or perhaps because they're pigeon-holed. And when it all comes to fruition years later, you have a Pavlich-type on your hands.

It's these pick 5-10 players, of which you always sneak one or two, that I think would round out a list that we all think looks pretty darn good at this stage, if a bit young. I for one am [censored] that what would be pick #6 will turn into pick #20 or something, with the upcoming concessions.

One way or another we lose out... And there's no-one who seems to care enough to do anything about it. It's like the AFL say "It's only the smaller clubs who miss out on the picks, so no-one will kick up that much of a fuss." I doubt, if Collingwood were the ones bottoming out like us, that this would go ahead the way it has. And we all know why.

[hillie 41]

I for one am [censored] that what would be pick #6 will turn into pick #20 or something, with the upcoming concessions.

yes i think this is how melbourne will be affected. those top 10 pics say from pick 5-10 that the carltons and richmonds got this year will end up being in the 20s. however this 'topping up' stage is critical to teams rebuilding. look at geelong with selwood. he was pick 7 from memory in the one year geelong fell out of the finals. it speaks for itself really. it still really pisses me off that i feel we're going to be done out of something that ought to be ours.

[BAMF 4,427]

As for the GC thing... One of the things that pleases me is that we had the Morton year, then the Watts year... then we have the coming bottoming-out year which, if we go badly enough, could get us Butcher and Scully... which would pretty much complete the forward line and midfield, to go with a deep if unspectacular defence.

It's these pick 5-10 players, of which you always sneak one or two, that I think would round out a list that we all think looks pretty darn good at this stage, if a bit young. I for one am [censored] that what would be pick #6 will turn into pick #20 or something, with the upcoming concessions.

One way or another we lose out...

Well put Dappa. Its something that ive been thinking about as well. 2010 will be the year that we finish about 10th or 11th. The GC17 make the posibility of getting a Selwood or a Rioli out of the draft that much more unlikely. Luckily we will have most of our rebuild done.

The teams who suffer the most will be the teams who finish 15th and 16th.

Everytime time i think the kangas will slide they surprise me. I reakon Brisbane will be starting a rebuild in 2010. Port will continue down hill for awhile yet.

Infact, I reakon Port will be our biggest challange for winning the spoon this year.

[BLWNBA 1,208]

While I can see people saying the Kangaroos will struggle most, I have to say that Sydney will struggle most....IF given no support by the AFL. They have an ageing list, with no real young stand outs apart from Veszpremi. Though they do have some 'ageing' older workhorses such as Hall, Kirk, Bolton and O'Keefe and Goodes, these players are unlikely to be around when the Swans are able to next challenge for a flag. Though many may argue the swans are a dangerous team, I believe that they are in a similar situaion to us in 2006 and 2007, and that this season we may see the swans in a similar situation to what happened to us in 2007.

[Wolfmother 182]

I think Melbourne have actually got the best deal out of the GC coming through.... If we hadn't got in the injuries in 2007 we would of bottom out 08-10 and really struggled but with Morton, Watts years and maybe one more (I think we will only have 4 or 5 draft picks this year due to the 17 olds taken and trusting developing the players) we have rebuilt before the GC thus meaning we will have a good standing between 10-15 when all the concessions are handed out, unlike some clubs as I agree some clubs will be at the bottom for more than a few years which can effect things alot finacially. The only club that is higher placed than us is Carlton and maybe Hawthorn but then again I can see them doing a WC.... Dominate club great players but there is a culture issue there and if a high profile player like Cousins gets his third strike it will smash them....

The clubs that will struggle will be

Sydney - They will be struggling from 10-11 right in the middle of the concessions

Fremante - They started there rebuilding this year and will be in the middle of it in 09 -10 when the concessions start

St Kilda - I think they will drop off in 11-13 which is right in the middle so could struggle

Western - Again will come down in 11 -13 stage which will be in the middle (Western Sydney maybe???)

[Yencks 8]

i think richmond and carlton are two clubs that are doing well atm

port adelaide and fremantle are the two clubs that i think will struggle through this period

maybe not sydney tho...if paul roos cant do something very clever, the AFL will hand feed them good players