binman

I'm Brian, and so's my wife.

Nor do i.

At speed is the key. Goody didn't invent defnsive zoning, but he arguably perfected it. Now all teams, bar port (which is bizarre) zone super well. Most (all?) team's defensive lines push up high now. But still zone (getting back hard after turnovers) - meaning forward lines are often clagged up and have no space. Fast ball movement from the back half is the only way to beat the zone. I think that's the key reason Windsor will play off the half back We have to get that right. If we do JVR, Turner, Fritter and Jefferson (assuming he gets selected in the ines), will get good looks and some space to lead into. All are good one on one too and will get more one out opportunities. Our kicking still worries me. It's not as if every player has to be elite kicks - every team has their butchers. And even the best kicks miss plenty of targets. But the players who are frequently involved in transition chains need to reliably hit targets otherwise teams, as happened to us last season, get smashed on turnover. I think a key factor this season is whether Salem and Bowey play most games. Mcvee is also key and Billings might also be important. And hopefully spargs can get back into the team (we really missed him last year I reckon). I wonder if part of the thinking of langers playing as a mid and half forward is his kicking. Wingers play an important role in transitioning the bal from the back half and the last kick inside 50. Whilst langers running power and smarts makes him one of the best wingers in the AFL, his kicking, which admittedley has improved, is still very hit and miss. Moving him off the wing means they can use better kicks on the wing, say Billings and XL

That's right.. I wasn't meaning all team Fitness in the sense of fitness aggregated across the board - well, that's a part of it I guess (for example, the sort of heaviness and angst that goody describes is not really conducive for a high performance environment and culture) Poor phrase. The factors you rightly highlight are all part of the mix, the biggest part really. So, whilst they shouldn't be immune from criticism, I'm not blaming the fitness team for last year's fitness issues. As you suggest there's too little data (frustrating) and too many variables and unknowns (inevitable) to fairly assess their performance over a single season.

Yep - and as you say we had mutiple players who for one reason or another were either never at optimal fitness or were, but got injured.

Yep, the youth of the team was definitely a factor - as of course were injuries to senior players as they forced us to play young players that otherwise might not have played senior footy (eg kolt, brown, AMW). But even without the injuries to senior plsyers we had young guns who were best 22 locks like Windsor, JVR and Turner who started to hit the wall in the second half of the season.

Indeed. That is precisely why all team fitness is such a critical success determinant now. I've long been amazed how little the impact of injury is factored into how the game is analysed and discussed. It's nuts given it has always been the key determinant of success. So it should be no surprise that fitness levels barely register as a factor in how the media and fans assess a team's performances and likelihood of success. No surprise, but very frustrating given its significance. For example, any assessment of our capacity to implement the fast transition method last year is of no value if it doesn't consider our fitness level. A good example of the importance of all team fitness to successfully implementing the transition method is the pies' 2024 season. The pies won the flag in 2023 on the back of the transition method they started using in 2022. Yes, like us, they had lots of injury issues and missed key personnel. But they never looked fit enough in 2024 and simply couldn't effectively implement the method they were previously the benchmark for. A key reason the lions won the flag was their fitness. We saw first hand the impact of the fitness gap between us and them in our second meeting - we blitzed them in the first half, but ran out of gas in the second half. Conversely they had plenty left in the tank in the second half and completely ran over the top of us.

Thanks TU. I hope that puts the whole we are implementing a new game plan this season myth to bed once and for all. What goody says above is almost the same as what I wrote a few weeks ago - we implemented a transition game lastseason, struggled to get it right - particularly defensively - got opened up several times as a result and went back to our old model to stem the bleeding. Goody notes our injuries, but not what i think what was our biggest challenge implementing the transition model - our fitness in the second half of the year was miles off. That model is incredibly taxing and requires elite all team fitness and running power. To be fair to goody, we would have been pulverised if we hadn't reverted to our down the line style in the last third of the season. And would have copped it big time on here - even more than we did. 2024 was very similar to 2019 in terms of trying to implement a new method- the big difference being we didn't revert in 2019.

He look unbelievably fit doesn't he. He's in the mix with tmac and Howes for a defensive position i reckon.

He looks like he's bulked up in the upper body too.

Indeed.

And I reckon a factor would be how much the game is based on running now - every player has to cover 10+ kms per game in footy now - a fair bit of it at a good clip I'd be guessing 10 years ago only half the team would clock up those sort of distances. To cover that sort of territory they must also have to do heaps more running in preseason than say even five years ago.

Source?

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You're kidding right?

Perhaps they've had too many.

As a generalisation, clubs draft for talent and trade for needs. You only need to look at who we've traded in under goody for evidence of that I think Roost it far makes a good point about mids often being afl ready, and talls not, being factors in the focus on mids in the draft. Which points to another reason for not trading in Allan. There's always the risk of the sunk cost fallacy, but as rooster notes talls can take several years to be AFL standard. That represents a significant investment by clubs in the talls they draft in terms of time and resources- not to mention list spots. Take Jefferson- two full years on the list and yet to make his debut. Verral is likely another year of development before he'll get a senior game. Turner took time to make his debut, as a defender, then nearly another 12 months before his next game. Let's say they traded Allan in. JVR's position in the ones would be safe but Jefferson (assuming he debuts tgis year) and Turner's wouldn't. F And what about AJ and Verral? If those players don't play senior footy in 2026 or beyond, or we choose to trade them, we get Bo return on our considerable investment in them All that said, Jefferson might not make the grade and Turner might not go up a level. In that scenario, Allan becomes a viable option if available (ie trading out jeffo and/turner)

All good, I didn't think you were sniping. Assumimg he plays to his previous level, Allan might make us better - might being the operative word. It's not really possible to be categoric about it, particularly 12 months our of any possible trade, as we don't know what the opportunity cost would be if invested in Allan. For example, if we traded in Allan perhaps it means Jefferson can't get senior minutes, or JVR who is currently our number one key forward doesn't play aa well with Allan in the team. Other opportunity cost questions I'd we traded in Allan include: - Who would we have to give up in any trade - who would we not be able to trade in (ie who might we miss out on?- perhaps another gun who better meets our needs, a Serong or Brayshaw for example) - what would the impact be on TPP and our ability to meet the contract demands of our young guns like (particularly relevant with tassie on the horizon) We saw an example of some of those opportunity costs (and others) when we traded in an A grader in Grundy. Whilst not a key position player, his example is relevant because the initial idea was Grundy and Maxy woukd share the ruck role. That didn't work, in part because it didn't fill a need. Our need was a key forward who could give maxy a chop out (the role they have AJ pencilled in for) not another number one ruck. There's also another interesting piece of the puzzle as it relates to key position players. One of the most notable things about last year's draft is how few genuine key position players were drafted in the first two rounds. The focus for most clubs was mid size runners with good skills. Several key forwards and defenders went way later than predicted, perhaps suggesting that such players are not as important for clubs the way the game is played at the moment (ie fast ball movement and focus on transition). Which is not say key position players are not important, just that when a club has a surfeit of such players they are less likely to chase new ones. Allan to the Lions makes sense because they don't have a surfeit of talls. But as evidence of the reduced focus on talls, even then they used their second pick (25 - they were always going to use their first pick on Ashcroft) to select a mid (Sam Marshall). And like the dees, only selected a tall with their last pick - Ty Gallop described in one post draft analysis as 'a project tall forward with time to grow'.

It's amazing how similar all three articles are. That's the future of text based media - aggregated news siphoned from other sites and AI generated articles.

Without inviting a back and forth, a pet hate of mine is my comments being deliberately misconstrued. I did not say I would not want Allan because we have Turner. I said with 'JVR and Turner we are ok for key forwards I reckon'. Big difference. Demonland has been been terrific of late, in large part because the sniping has massively reduced, there is less silly back and forth and fewer straw man arguments. This had meant much more respectful dialogue and more nuanced discussions, which personally I've really enjoyed. The tenor has been really positive. So in that spirit, allow me to explain why I think we dont need Allan. Whilst surplus to requirements was a throw away comment by me, even if available, in my opinion Allan should not be, and almost certainly wouldn’t be, a priority target. Don't get me wrong, Allan is a jet. I've really liked him since he first started playing. But, irrespective of our struggles up forward (the cause of which I think is mostly about delivery and not being quick enough on transition), we are well covered for key position forwards. I think JVR will prove to be as good, if not better than Allan. He is seriously underated I think, even by dees fans. His numbers stack up to the very best key forwards at the same stage in the modern era, including Allan. I think Turner has massive upside and predict he will have the classic break out year this season. We have two genuine swing men who can play as key forwards in Petty and Tmac (who was our leading goal scorer in 2018). And whilst he has yet to play a game the club clearly think Jefferson can make the grade as a key forward. And we drafted, albeit with a lowly draft pick, AJ - who they hope will make the grade as key forward who can give maxy a chop out. On top of that we have three medium talls who will all play up forward at times, and all play tall, in fritter (our leading goal scorer for the last 5 seasons), Tracc (our leading goal scorer in 2019) and Langford (191cms now, and will likely get taller still). I made all the same points prior to the draft, correctly predicting we would target a big mid with elite kicking skills and an outside mid/wing/hb with elite kicking skills (ideally a lefitie). If a key forward was a priority for the club they would have targeted one in the trade period, and failing that (there weren't really any available) use one of our first round draft picks to draft a key forward. But they didn't. Because whilst a gun key forward might have been on some fans wish lists, it was clearly not a priority for goody and the FD. Trading in Allan makes zero sense (unless say as a straight swap for JVR) as it doesn’t meet a need (not to mention the fact we would have to pay him top dollar, causing issues with our TPP). In my opinion, our priority in both next year's trade and draft periods will remain mid size runners who are elite ball users because that sort of player remains our key need.

..of stains?

What's David King got against @george_on_the_outer?

No need to do that today. We don't have to think or learn anymore- that's what we have AI for.

As good a place as any: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/some-good-home-truths-the-pre-season-trip-that-could-turn-things-around-for-melbourne-20250128-p5l7nx.html

Nah, surplus to requirements. With JVR and Turner we are ok for key forwards I reckon.