binman

Fans wants us to run out games, and when well up keep piling on the goals. Which is faire enough, we all love the sugar hit of goals. But if the aim was to increase our percentage then the best way to achieve that goal would have been to park the bus, suck time out of the clock, deny them scoring opportunities and not worry about scoring ourseves. Thats to say NOT allow the game to become the shoot out It became. But no fans want that.

I save it for special wins only. The last two victories pass the bar easily.

I was at the game so haven't seen any vision, but live it looked like an issue with his foot or ankle. He took off and ran pretty hard for 50-60 metres, which surely would be unlikely if it was a knee injury. At least I hope so.

Spargs passed the HIA test apparently.

Great call on petty. I sat with a mate and his son in the forward pocket at the punt road end, one row back from the fence. That's the first time I've sat on the fence at an AFL gamec in so long i cant even remember the last time- maybe the 1981 grand final. So for half the match I had a close up view of petts. His work rate and physicality against McCartin was unbelievable. McCartin is a beast, must have 10kg on petts, but petts didn't give him an inch. So important, one to deny intercept marks and two get tge ball to ground for koz and the gang.

I love him so much. Great game. Guts and Determination. His season high tackle count is 9. He had 8 at half time (7 in the first quarter!), and 12 at the end.

Sometimes when a team is poor it's mote about how well their opponent plays, and how effectively the oppo takes away their strengths and exploits their weaknesses. Today was one such example.

Really? Blimey, must be a small crowd. Thanks for the heads up.

Can anyone there confirm if the top of the ponsford open?

I suspect we'll shorten and start equal favourites at 1.85.

I don't bet on the dees but if I did I would back us for a win today based on my assessment we are overs at 2.00. Objectively we should be favourite - I'd peg us at 1.75 to win. Playing on our home deck and our opponents have to travel We have close to our best 22 team and our opponents are missing at least 5-6 of their best 22 They are missing tall forwards which creates a structural problem for them Last year, at their best, they were one of the best transition teams going with a method we struggled to negate - this year they are below mid table for transition and are relying on winning contest and territory, which is our one wood We have won 4 of our last 5 games The Swas have lost 3 of their last 5 games We are coming off a win against the premiership on their home deck, with, in horse racing parlance, the lions franking that form last night (also helping my punting bank) The Swans, at home against a travelleing team, struggled to get past the blues, who do anything but frank the form getting smashed at home by the giants Note: that doesn't in of itself mean I think we'll win. Just means I think a dees victory is the most probable outcome hence 2.00 is good value. BUT I do think we'll win. If we kick straight I'm predicting a 32 point victory

I was in Perth too. Horrible crowd. Horrible day.

100% agree. That's why you send best 22 players back to the magoos. Get some confidence back and get back to basic. And for jvr that's about clunking his marks leading out hard. Tick. Tick

Jeffo another good tackle inside 50 and he kicks 5. Good signs.

Jeffo great tackle inside 50. Kicks his 4th goal. Good signs.

Calm down? All I said was bollocks, hardly an example of getting wound up or a furious repudiation of your opinion. Jesus. Thin skin much.

Kolt"s energy, effort and body language much, much better than last week. Good signs.

Sestan on fire.

Great one grab contested mark by jeffo. Goes back and nails it. By the came after a nice intercept mark by sestan followed up by another neat short kick that hit its target. JVR also has clunked a couple of strong marks. Great signs

Laurie kicks a goal on the back of two sestan 30 metre kicks in the scoring chain that hit their target. Easy kicks yes, but they are exactly the kicks that need to be hit 90% of the time but that we struggle with. I reckon sestan is not far away from breaking into the seniors.

Great post EO. It highlights a critiical element of modern coaches' philosophy, particularly goody's - a huge emphasis on percentages and probability. That's to say say strategies informed by the probability of them increasing scoring (or decreaing oppo scoring). A great example is the shift in the NBA to taking massive numbers of 3 point shots. That tactical shift, one many people really hate, is a direct result of the data showing that even though a higher percentage of shots get missed than 2 point shots, there is statistical advantage to take more 3 point shots In terms of scoring. That's to say teams score more taking a higher volume of lower percentage shots. Goody won a flag playing the percentages - namely a higher volume of inside 50s and winning territory. There was a tactical response from other team which has changed the percentages and we've had to adjust our method as a result.

I made this post in another thread, but it fits better in this thread. Note: the context is our improvement in what could be considered goody's core fundamentals- contested possessions, pressure etc: Agree those stats reflect goody's focus on his fundamentals - pressure, contest and inside 50 tackling and pressure. Bur we are definitely making some fundamental changes to our method, a process we began in thefirst two thirds of last season For example we are third in the AFL for uncontested possessions, a reflection of the way we are chipping it around to stretch opposition zones and maintain possession until we can find a path to attack and then press the button. I reckon another factor in using the chip it around strategy, which freo also use, is it helps to minimise turnovers and intercepts because there's less emphasis on getting it forward at all costs We're still turning it over too much (4th - Swans are number 1) but we're way better in terms of clangers. We are 14th for clangers, two spots better than the pies and just above Suns, Dockers, Dogs and Hawks - all teams that arw considered excellent kicking sides. By the by the Swans are number one for most clangers, which bodes well for us if we bring the heat, which I fully expect us to do I don't put much stock in the kicking efficiency stat, but for what it's worth we are above the Swans this season, 68% to 64.9%. In fact we are 2nd in the afl (behind freo), though that's probably a function of our chip it around strategy, which freo also use. The Swans' clangers and key stats really show the impact if losing so many quality plsyers, Gulden being the big one). Another change is how quick we are moving the ball when we take a mark or win a free. I'm not sure whete we're are at now but 3 weeks ago we were top 3 for how quickly we played on after a free or mark. We've still got a long way to go to get the transition game right - we're 18th for scores from defensive half for example. Bur we're getting there. Take that last stat. Yes we're not scoring enough from our back half. BUT we are actually 5th for transitioning the ball from our D50 inside our 50. We are one posiion above a hawks team many consider to be thev best transition team and below other excellent transition team in the Dogs, Suns, (surprisingly) Blues and Cats That suggests that we are actually transitioning effectively but breaking down once we get inside our 50 (no shock to dees fans). If we can improve our last kick inside 50, and our forward line effectiveness more generally we can really improve our scoring from the back half very quickly, which makes us a big threat if we can maintain our contest and pressure levels.

And the same people who won't give goody credit for his confusing selections last week (jvr dropped, AJ in, Fritter keeping his spot) proving to be good calls

Agree those stats reflect goody's focus on his fundamentals - pressure, contest and inside 50 tackling and pressure. Bur we are definitely making some fundamental changes to our method, a process we began in the two thirds of last season For example we are third in the AFL for uncontested possessions, a reflection of the way we are chipping it around to stretch opposition zones and maintain possession until we can find a path to attack and then press the button. I reckon another factor in using the chip it around strategy is it helps to minimise turnovers and intercepts because there's less emphasis on getting it forward at all costs. We're still turning it over too much (4th - Swans are number 1) but we're way better in terms of clangers. We are 14th for clangers, two spots better than the pies and just above Suns, Dockers, Dogs and Hawks - all teams that arw considered excellent kicking sides. By the by the Swans are number one for most clangers, which bodes well for us if we bring the heat, which I fully expect us to do I don't put much stock in the kicking efficiency stat, but for what it's worth we are above the Swans this season, 68% to 64.9%. In fact we are 2nd in the afl (behind freo), though that's probably a function of our chip it around strategy, which freo also use. The Swans' clangers and key stats really show the impact if losing so many quality plsyers, Gulden being the big one). Another change is how quick we are moving the ball. I'm not sure whete we're are at now but 3 weeks ago we were tp 3 for how quickly we played on after a free or mark. We've still got a long way to go to get the transition game right- we're 18th for scores from defensive half for example. Bur we're getting there - take that last stat. Yes we're nor scoring enough from our back half BUT we are actually 5th for transitioning the ball from our D50 inside our 50. We are one posiion above a hawks team many consider to be thevl best transion team and below other excellent transition team in the Dogs, Suns, (surprisingly) blues and Cats That suggests that we are actually transitioning effectively but breaking down once we get inside our 50 (no shock to dres fans). If we can improve our last kick inside 59 and our forward line effectiveness more generally we can really improve our scoring from the back half very quickly, which makes us a big threat if we can maintain our contest and pressure levels.