binman

My take. I know not everyone agrees with me (or perhaps do, to some degree, but think i over egg the pudding) about the impact of loading. But i'd make three points: One, as i have noted for the last 4-5 seasons on Demonland, EVERY year during this phase of the season (ie the mid-season byes period) there are ALWAYS a huge number of anomalous results. This is a fact. And the results are not just upset wins; there's also heaps of weird margins (eg massive blowouts, games that are much closer than the bookies have pegged it at etc). For example, in the GWS v Tigers' game the Tiger's line was +45 points. Which means the punters thought that GWS would win that game by nearly 8 goals. The tigers lost by 3 points, covering their line by a massive 42 points. I have zero doubt the anomalous results are in large part are a function of where teams are at with their high-performance program. To be clear I'm not arguing the high-performance programs are the only reason for this long-standing clear pattern of anomalous results in the middle of the year. But it is without doubt a significant factor, one that is all but completely ignored by media and fans alike. Two, i think our performance against the Saints was impacted by us loading. And I'm not being smart after the fact. In a pre-game post on DL arguing i thought we were too short in the betting and that it was the very definition of a danger game i noted one of the 6 reasons for this opinion was: 'I wonder if our high-performance program is geared towards being in optimal shape on Kings birthday at the potential expense of this game (ie bigger block of training into this game then taking advantage of the 8-day break to taper into the pies game)' Following up to a comment by Bring Back Powell that he hopes I'm wrong because he'd rather we prioritized the game we have a better chance of winning, for risk of losing both games, i responded that i can see that logic, but that: 'I just wonder, given how poorly we have played in the Queens, Kings birthday game in the last few years (ironically, in large part because, IMO, we have been loading at this point in previous seasons) if the idea might be to be cherry ripe for the game.' I'm convinced that proved to be the case, ie we took a calculated risk and did a big block of training ahead of this game, with the goal of optimizing our condition for the Pies game, and our performance suffered as a result. My final point is in regard to the push back i often get when raising this topic - if all teams do it how come the Pies (or insert other top teams) don't drop games they should not lose whereas we do. My answer is that it is a very good question, and that the answer includes factors such as having too many poor kicks and in previous years having a game plan more dependent on pressure than other teams (pressure is the thing that most noticeably drops off under the fatigue of loading*). But also, that it's reasonable to question our mental resilience (what is leading teams doing?), planning and coaching. I would note, however, that the top teams DO lose matches during this phase of the year. *Pressure is by the best measure of fatigue, with contested possessions second. They said on the fox coverage that: Our last quarter pressure rating was the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody The average for the game the fifth lowest EVER under goody I suspect that the majority of our top 10 worst pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of our mid-season bye. @WheeloRatings do you have access to our historical pressure rating data?

They said on the fox coverage that: our lastquarter pressure rating wasr the lowest pressure rating in a quarter EVER under goody The average for the game the fith lowest under goody By the by, I suspect that the majority of top 10 pressure rating under goody would be within two weeks either side of of our mid season bye.

His body language and energy had been tp notch on the last 2 games. He'll be back in the ones soon enough.

A pet hat of mine is retrospectively downgrading a victory because or the form of the beaten team the following week. Did the lions brilliant demolition of the hawks the week after we beat them make our won over them premiership worthy?

Binge sometimes has kayo content as a way to promote kayo

That's awesome, right side of town for me - I'm there with bells on.

I agree that we're kicking inside 50 better but really, as evidenced by our relatively low marks inside 50 numbers, were still oten bombimg it in to a contest. I think the big difference to 2021 - 2024 is, on both first time and repeat entries, we're going around the arc more to spead the defenders so if we do kick to an aerial contest it's more often a one on one, which we're halving more often than not.

Front half game is dependent on contest and defence. I don't think we are setting our D further back - we're certainly pushing up when we have the ball in our forward line (key to creating front half turnovers).

It's funny you should mention the 'terrority game'. Like the pies, we are still playing it in so far there us a clear emphasis on winning the territory, inside 50 battle this season. The difference is the focus on, as you suggest, not always bombing it in (though we are still doing plenty of that) and bei g much less straight line. It's interesting because in 2024, on the back of the pies 2023 flag win, it was all about scores from the back half and spring boarding from half half. In 2025, whilst transition from the back half is still important, the pendulum has swung back a bit to territory, get it inside 50 and trap there, forward half turnover footy. It's a shift that suits us. The red and blue print.

A good example is trac handballing sharp in the seans game to set a running goal rather than bombing for goal himself.

No it's not.

Yep, back to back solid games with good intensity. Times his leads super well.

Neat

Noah yze kicks a beauty

Sound is nor synced properly with the vision, at least it is for me, meaning the whiistle is slightly ahead of the play, which very annoying.

It's not deliberate. Its insufficient intent to keep the ball I the field of play.

All true. But it should never noted that whilst we have 15 AFL listed players they have 11.

Demonstrating how he keeps reinventing himself?

Any truth in the rumours you are reporting from your studio in South Melbourne?

And people wonder why Spargo is a best 22 lock.

Yep, no rivalry at all. To the contrary, its terrific there's two good dees pods and i reckon they compliment each other really well as they are both a bit different in style. All power to the dee brief team (by the by it's a great name for a dees pod)

I forgot about that. That's another black mark on that podcast and in particular Birch's 'analysis'. They actually implied Saints hadn't played there (but i was dubious which is I added the i dont tkink caveat) and as a result didn't point out an obvious flaw in Birch's 4-6 rationale - ie, the dees might well have lost 6 of their games at Traeger Park, but one of their wins was against the Saints (who may have lost 100% of their games there?)

I won't be making that mistake again I can assure you.

Agree cranky, calling for violence is a red line for me. I understand the anger, though to be honest any residual anger I feel is directed at the AFL for the sham that was his non suspension and their role in the shameful thug washing of maynard"s reputation. I'm happy for the karma bus to hit Maynard. Then stop, reverse, and back over him.