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Everything posted by binman

  1. Well reasoned, and I appreciate the measured response. But the data for the metrics you chose don't support your argument and i think your premise is founded on flawed logic. For example, saying you think JVR does not consistently impact the game as a key forward should YET is setting a strange benchmark ie what he will become as opposed to what can reasonably be expected t9 be at his current age and stage of development. And besides, I disagree that he doesn't impact the game consistently enough right now. He is our best key forward NOW. Certainly our most consistent one. And as I have noted I disagree completely his body work is poor. It just isn't. And whilst I think his hands could be stickier, i don't agree his hands are 'poor'. Far from it. I mean, his contested mark numbers indicate he has really good hands. 50th in the AFL this season for ALL forwards for contested marks puts him ahead of a lot of good footballers. That's not possible without having good hands. And again, unlike almost every other key forward, JVR is also a second ruck. If he had the luxury of staying inside 50 the whole game and not gassing himself rucking he'd clunk more marks. That ruck role has to be factored into the assessment of his forward craft and his value to the team. Just one aspect is taking 20 ruck contests a game allows maxy to be the dominant player he is. And the fact that JVR holds his own when rucking means we don't get opened up when maxy is on the bench. And his around the ground rucking also demonstrates how well he uses his body. What other young key forward does any rucking? Of the more senior pure key forwards, I can only think of Daniher who takes as many ruck contests as JVR. I too have watched a lot football. And seen a lot of young key forwards come and go. JVR is only in his third season, and just his second playing seniors. He has just turned 21. The level he played at last year, when still 20, and is playing at this year, is remarkable, as is how important he is for us. Cadman, a number one draft pick is a year behind roey. He is in his second season, and regualarly in the ones, so comparable to where JVR was last season. He looks good, but is nowhere near as impactful or as important to his teams' fortunes as JVR was last season. In my 45 plus years of watching the dees, the only two key forwards compare to JVR at the same age in terms of impact (not potential impact, actual impact) are the ox and Jessie Hogan.
  2. How do you square 'not impactful enough' with not questioning his trajectory? If you think is trajectory is OK, then by definition isn't he sufficiently impactful for his age and stage of development? And isn't there a contradiction in saying his trajectory as a key forward is fine but his hands aren’t elite for a key forward nor his body on body work? I'd agree he could improve his marking, but completely disagree about his one on one ability. For a 21 year old playing in the ruck and as a key forward, almost always on bigger and older opponents, he is elite one on one. In fact I'd say that's his greatest strength - it's the thing that immediately stood out the first time I saw him play live at Casey. Agree your key metrics for key forwards - number of targets inside 50, contests won/lost & score involvements/assists - are good indicators for key forwards. The only key forward player in the AFL 21 or under who is anywhere near as good as JVR is Amiss. Amiss has JVR covered for average assists per game this season (0.60 to 0.40 - by way of contrast Hawkins and Dixon average 0.44 and the Coleman medallist, Curnow 0.55). JVR has Amiss covered for score involvements this season (4.30 to 4.20 - both impressive actually - by way of contrast Larkey averages 4.55 score involvements). JVR has Amiss well and truly covered for average contested marks this season (0.6 to 0.5). Ranked equal 50th with Jeremy cameron, JVR is ahead of Daniher and Larkey for average contested marks per game this season. Impressive given how taxing the donkey work as a back up ruck is, particularly for a kid. (Note: the data above is for forwards who have played a minimum 5 games this season). And JVR is number one in the AFL for marking the ball when targeted. That is a hugely impressive stat for a key forward who only turned 21 last month. On top of all that he is miles ahead of most key forwards, young and old, for accuracy, kicking efficiency, tackles and one percenters. None of that adds up to 'not impactful enough'. It adds up to a kid who at 21 is incredibly impactful for his age (comparable to some of the greats), the best young forward in the AFL and a future rolled gold, AA star. It is crazy how underrated he is, even by some dees fans.
  3. You're kidding right. That's what you take from that data - JVR is not impactful enough? Kids has just turned 21 and in my opinion is the best forward 21 and under in the game. And in the next 3-4 years will develop into the best key forward full stop. People rightly rate Ugle Hagan highly. So do i. This is how their season's compare thus far. JUH shades JVR in most stats, most notably contested marks, but not all. JVR has JUH well and truly covered for disposal efficiency and has half the number of clangers. And unlike JUH, JVR does not have the luxury of swanning around the forward line the whole game, having to take 20 odd ruck contests game as our second ruck. No mean feat for a 21 year old. Probably explains why he is worth more for super coach. And of course a key point is JUH is a year older than JVR and has another year of AFL level development. Player Statistics Comparison Jacob Van Rooyen Name Jamarra Ugle-Hagan Melbourne Demons Team Western Bulldogs Forward Position Forward 30 Career Games 54 Claremont Origin Oakleigh Chargers April 16, 2003 Date of Birth April 4, 2002 21yr 1mth Age 22yr 1mth 193cm Height 197cm 96kg Weight 91kg 2021 National Draft Last Drafted In 2020 National Draft Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #1 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Western Bulldogs 2024 Stats for Season 2024 10 Games 9 5.2 Kicks 8.6 4.2 Handballs 2.4 9.4 Disposals 11.0 3.1 Marks 5.1 1.3 Goals 1.8 0.6 Behinds 1.7 1.7 Tackles 1.3 3.5 Hitouts 0 1.5 Inside 50s 1.9 0.4 Goal Assists 0.2 1.2 Frees For 0.9 0.9 Frees Against 1.1 4.3 Contested Possessions 5.9 5.1 Uncontested Possessions 5.3 7.3 Effective Disposals 5.7 77.7% Disposal Efficiency % 51.8% 1.8 Clangers 3.6 0.6 Contested Marks 2.2 1.3 Marks Inside 50 3.1 0.8 Clearances 0.6 0 Rebound 50s 0 1.5 One Percenters 0.8 0.1 Bounces 0 75.0 Time On Ground % 84.4 0.3 Centre Clearances 0 0.5 Stoppage Clearances 0.6 4.3 Score Involvements 5.3 135.7 Metres Gained 230.1 1.9 Turnovers 3.1 0.5 Intercepts 0.4 0.6 Tackles Inside 50 0.6 $426,000 AFL Fantasy Price $502,000 50.5 AFL Fantasy Score 61.1 $283,900 Supercoach Price $281,000 54.8 Supercoach Score 58.1
  4. Two rushed (they don't count them for some reason)
  5. We did win by six goals after all.
  6. Their kicking was woeful in the main. And it seemed as if we dared them to take on the corridor and the saints refused the invite. That said, 54 of their 66 points were from turnover. That's nuts. That's only 4 points less than we scored from turnover. And is nearly 11 points more than we concede per match on average. I can't imagine that number pleased goody.
  7. The swans are the deserved benchmark for the turnover game But I think it's worth noting that they have been using that method for the last 2 seasons and are the most settled team in the AFL in terms of forced changes. Consider the impact if they lost 2 of their 3 best kicks that are key to their transition game - say blakely and gulden.
  8. A couple of factors come to mind. A key one is having 2 of our 3 best kicks - salem and bowey - out of the side for a big chunks of time. That iss compounded by both players being half back flankers, the engine room for creating high quality scoring opportunities on turnover and transition. Given the key role elite distributors play in the turnover game, its no surprise we look much better on transition with those two in the side. I think another factor is that we have a number of players who ate not great kicks. And perhaps the biggest factor is we are trying to implement a new system, which will always be a challenge, particularly for a team that is so systems based, and one that has a super defined system drilled into them for 3 plus years.
  9. There's an interesting potential correlation with the loose ball gets as per wheelos terrific addition to his stats. Melbourne's Forward 50 Loose Ball Gets: -14 Post clearance Loose ball gets: -19 Pre clearance Loose Ball Gets: -3 I suspect one of the causal factors driving the post clearance, inside our forward 50 and the ground ball numbers, is the Lyon defensive flood. They often seemed to have at least a couple of extra players defending our forward line.
  10. He's starting to mount an argument as the best ruck in the modern era. Def the best ruck at Melbourne, and that's no disrespect to White, Jimmy and Baker.
  11. Agree we still have a pretty tough run home. (But I'd add we have games against the Eagles at roos at the g to come) But that wasn’t my point. My point was our run home is not as tough as our first 11 games. Two five day breaks. A six day break. Four interstate games. Both Adelaide teams at home. Have played the swans, port, cats and blues, meaning 4 of our 11 games have been against teams currently in the top 8, 2 against top 4 teams. And we are 4th. The ladder doesn't lie (well perhaps for the bombers it does). As much as some on here might try to convince people otherwise, you can't magic up 4th on the ladder after 11 rounds with the fixture we have had.
  12. Had a family lunch, so had to watch the game as live. Just finished it. Great win. Haven't read this thread yet. I assume posters, even the ones convinced we are hopeless, have given us full credit and not putting some sort of asterisk on it. The ladder doesn't lie. Fourth on the ladder close to the halfway part of the season with our toughest games and schedule behind us. Go redleggers.
  13. No, not someone. Thousands of people, including professional punters risking serious coin, have backed us to win, which explains why we are 1.33 to win. Of course that doesn't mean we will - you only have to go to one harness meeting to understand 1.33 favourites can get rolled. But the thing I like about the betting market is we punters do our best to strip out emotion and be as objective as possible. After all it's cold hard cash on the line not a throw away prediction or a lead tipping comps. (And even if there are some emotion driven punters adding a drip to the pool, a big chunk of them are probably woe us us dees fans backing the saints) Which is why the betting market is by far the best predictor of the probable outcome of any given match.
  14. Old mate Scotty didn't disappointed. I admire his confidence. He could have gone safe in his attempt to win the coveted Poor sportsmanship- coaches division award (or as it is colloquially known, the sour puss). After all he has a handy lead over mcrae, who has surged of late, scoring big with his patented go to passive aggressive routine. But, no, Scotty decided to attempt the rare triple pay the opponents no respect move - and totally nailed it. Respect. The cats apparently played poorly for 3 quarters against the giants, port and dees - and still almost won (he got bonus points for using the under a goal line - the judges loved it). Though he missed a chance to try the even rarer quadruple disrespect trick by not disrespecting the suns a bit more. Though he did pick up some easy points by acting if having 160 points scored against them is no big deal. And really, probably didn't need the extra points after totally nailing his signature 'no disrespect with a backhanded compliment twist' trick. As scott noted, a big factor in the game was the giants taking contested marks But, with 'no disrespect', the giants' old school strategy of kicking long to a contest was very basic - but only worked because the cats marked poorly. And the judges gave Scott extra points for that trick for the litte twist only the true sour puss aficionados would have picked up - that backhanded compliment was the ONLY time he mentioned the Giants. Personally, I loved how Scotty slipped in the tried and true trick of, apropos of nothing, mentioning that the cats have young players (all 3 of them) A bravura performance.
  15. Essential viewing: The Scott press conference.
  16. Easy to do, such is the power of the Demon myth spell.
  17. #Demon myths We smashed them from centre clearances: Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 4.1.25 1.1.7 +18 Stoppage (Other) 5.1.31 4.4.28 +3
  18. Loving the pies tears about the free on the radio.
  19. So if this list does achieve success you will reassess?
  20. Sorry, not sure i follow.
  21. Funny you should mention that. He did the half time interview they do walking with the coach to the bench. Was rude and didmissive. Made some lame joke at the end about Sarah knowing how much he 'loves' those interviews. Passive aggressive was exactly the thought i had. I wondered waht that was all about given hsi image as Me Media Then when they went back to the commentary team Brian Taylor contextualized his comments and tone, saying Mcrae doesn't like in match interviews which is why he doesn't do them often. What coach does? [censored] poor if you ask me
  22. I have an uneasy feeling. Backed the pies to win by more than 25. Looking good on that front. But I still want them to lose.
  23. 5 rushed skews things doesn't it. Not all of their rushed were misses as such. And rushed points all add to the score, so i don't think it makes sense to not include them in the actual score. If yoy incude the 5 rushed to the actual score above it's it score 88 to expected score of 92, and their accuracy looks better. The problem for the dogs was the actual and x and actual score lines diverged the wrong way in the last quarter.
  24. Imagine if the people paid to cover the game did their own research...
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