binman

I muddled up my stats shows - the comment about sharp was on the espn footy pod (which is pretty good)

I'm a Petty fan and thought he was serviceable and played a role in the weekend - a thankless one at that. And I can't see him being dropped any time soon, in large part because in the absence of May, and Tmac not being great one on one, Pettys's strength in marking contests and ability to take the oppo big key forward (and his ability to go forward) make him an important player. But jeez, there's some serious gilding of the lily going on about his performance against the Suns. Yes, not everybody thinks the Champion Data player rating points is much chop, and yes, it disadvantages defenders (though Petts played forward and rucked in the second half and both roles are advantaged under the CD player ratings system). But be that as it may, bottom line, 22 demon players had a higher rating than Petts against the Suns - or put another way, Petty our lowest rated player. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Match TOG Ball Win. Ball Use Harrison Petty −1.0 −0.3 3.4 −0.4 1.6 82% 4.8

Agree with all of the above He's an excellent kick, which i have to say has surprised me a bit this season

My only must listen footy media is Danile Hoyne's (from Champion Data) weekly slot on SEN (Tuesday at 6:30 pm, or perhaps 6pm? - i usually listen on Spotify the next day) On this week's show he said that based on Champion Data's player ratings Hary Sharp was third most improved player in the AFL (number one? - Christian Petracca by a mile - though he didn't note the obvious caveat that that is based on only 2.5 games)

I don't think so. Ultimately i think Heath will replace Maxy, with Kalani supporting Heath (and eventually replacing him).

I've learned my lesson making definitive statements about selections when i posted ahead of the Suns game that there was zero chance Melksham would get selected for that game That said, there is zero chance Culley gets dropped. He's a very important part of King's game plan: super fit, he can do the defensive and offensive running the game plan demands the game play requires players who can play multiple roles and positions - Culley can play, and has this season, wing, tall marking option up forward, mid and even pinch hit in the ruck Culley has shown this season he has the discipline to play a specific role or task, an important attribute all game plans demand King wants every player to be involved in creating scoring opportunities - whilst Culley has only kicked one goal this season he is averaging five score involvements a game And leaving aside that stuff he's playing terrific footy this season, as evidenced by his Champion Data player rating this season of 9.55. By way of contrast, Windsor, who has been terrific has a player rating this season thus far of 7.36. And Langford, who is playing almost an identical role to Culley has a player rating this season thus far of 8.88

Only four in fact. I discussed that on the pod actually. We had 11 against freo, so massive difference - surely tactical.

This fantastic post from @WheeloRatings provides a detailed explanation, with examples, of how player earn and lose rating points (equity points) that aggregated up over a game gives them their player rating (or equity points for sub elements like ball winning and ball losing) The shorter version is player ratings are a measurement of the direct impact each player has on a game through their actions that affect either the ball or ball-carrier, expressed as scoreboard impact. To get this measurement three factors are considered for each action: The location of the ball on the ground before and after the action The situation before and after the action The difference in Next Expected Score (NES) value before and after each action Actions that increase a player's team's chances of scoring next (e.g., taking possession, moving the ball forward) give positive ratings and actions that decrease those chances (e.g., turning it over, missing shots at goal) give negative ratings. The PR each player gets at the end of a game is the sum of these ratings. The two most significant categories of points players can earn are: Ball Winning: points from winning possession of the ball. Ball Use: points from disposal, including shots at goal, and carrying the ball I'm not sure how similar the Champion Data player ratings system is to that used in the NBA - from memory the NBA has a basic measure of how impactful a player is measured by how many more points their team scores than their opposition when they are on court (or less as the case may be). If i'm right the NBA version is much simpler as it doesn't measure each individual action a player has in game (eg kick, mark, goal point, tackle, one percenter, shepherd, tap on, free for, free against, clanger etc etc - the post i link above has all the ay a player can earn or lose rating points)

In the jungle. Jokes The process for recording the show, which normally goes out live, is a bit complex and above George and my pay grade - Andy records and mixes the show with a combo of recording software and analog mixing desk, with George and i joining via video link. Whilst Andy is away, I'm recording a basic sound file, which i send to Andy who adds the intro and outro and then uploads to the various platforms. Two more games and the DL pod will be back to normal.

I'll cover that question in next week's podcast

Yep, agree. Its all semantics - I mean we all might define rebuild differently. I guess I would define it as bottoming out and stocking up on high draft picks like the tigers and roos have done. And that's not our scenario. Perhaps a reset, refresh or rebuild on the run? We actually started the rebuild on the run/reftesh/reset a couple of seasons back. Goody deserves credit for that as not only did he encourage us to trade futures to land first round draft picks in Windsor, Kolt Langford and XL, he got them into the senior team early and then played them even when their form didn't nessesarily warrant it. That was particularly the case with Langford, Kolt, XL and even Windsor last season. Given his tenure was at risk if we haf a poor season, doing so was laudable and very MFC first. That game experience is super important, and we're reaping the benefit this year.

That's right - we're not young side like say the Tigers that stocked up on a bunch of young players in the draft. Which is one reason why i was confident preseason that we'd be a genuine chance to make finals this season- ie a good mix of senior players (maxy noted post-game that we have 10 premiership players on our list who are all desperate top get another), players around that key 50-80 game mark and young guns. This is part of what i wrote about our chances this season in this post back in January this year: As for Melbourne, I think it's great that the consensus seems to be that 12th is our ceiling as it means the team can go out about its business without the weight of expectation and fans will enjoy the wins more and be less likely to jump on the club after losses. As I've noted before, there are too many variables this season (eg new senior coach, tweaked game plan, impact of Claz and Trac going, new players, new CEO, new Prez etc etc) to make an informed prediction of how we might go. That said i'd be very surprised if the club did not think the finals were a realistic goal - and i will not be surprised in the least if we do make finals. I think we have a very underrated list, even among dees fans, with some serious talent under 25 years old. In Koz, Bowser, Roo, The Duke, The Bison, XL, XT, Latrelle, Jeffo and the Kolt we have ten players under the age of 25 who were first round draft selections. And I'd argue that Riv (24 - and taken at pick 32) and Disco (23 - mid-season rookie draftee) both would've been worthy first round draft picks. The jury is still well and truly out on Jeffo and the Kolt, and of course Latrelle and XT are yet to debut, but still, that is some serious young talent spread between 19 and 24 years old. We have obviously lost some top end talent with the loss of Claz and Tracc, and it's not unreasonable to argue we are a bit thin for talent in the 25 years and older bracket. But we have the best ruck in the competition, in Fritter one of the most consistently productive forward in the AFL and if Lever, who is still only 29, can stay injury free he is a top line defender (i'd love to say ditto for Steve May, but I'm not convinced he'll get back to his best). We didn't have great first half of the preseason in terms of the number of players in rehab. But against that most players in rehab have had relatively minor injuries and have been able to continue build their aerobic base. Bowser's injury is no good, but he is the only long-term injury we've had thus far. If we have decent Jan and Feb i think we will be in pretty good shape, pardon the pun, come the season in terms of our collective fitness. The other factor is, as i have argued previously, i just don't think the competition is particularly strong outside the Lions and perhaps the Crows. There isn't much separating 10-12 teams IMO, and i think there's a chance we will beat some teams that at this stage pundits have us well ahead of us (eg the Dogs, Freo, Pies and Hawks)

Thanks go dees for letting us now Just checked Spotify, there’s an issue there too - show goes another 10 mins (or should). Not sure what happened but I've let the boss (@Demonland) know. He'll probably blame the new intern

And a little misleading given the average age is inflated by Maxy (almost 35), Melksham (35) and Tmac (34 in September).

He forced himself out.

Alright, cutting of questions here. About to record the pod and then Andy will add the intro etc when he can. But please note he wont be able to upload until tomorrow when arrives at his chalet after his jet setting

Agree. I'd add that Luker is instinctively hyper competitive, and I don't think jeffo is. And all coached love natural competitors. That daid Jeffo probably has more natural talent. I'm not selling my Jeffo shares yet

I watched the replay and we def hanballed backwards and laterally more often than we have been I reckon there's no doubt it was tactical. Despite what they were saying on the commentary, the Suns, as evidenced by theie 300 us metres gained by and, were still using lots of forward handball. But we were super focused on pressing up on the receiver and often stopped or disrupted their forward flow. That was supported by the squeeze we are putting on our opponents, with the defenders pressing right up when the opponent is trying to transition from the back half, and the forwards also squeezing up in that scenario. So often.the Suns found them.in congestion with no great options forward or back. And they are not a precision kicking team like the lions (their game plan is very similar to ours it it's focus on territory and winning contests inside 50). But they couldn't do that to us, which I'd bet my bottom dollar they planned to, because we weren't doing our normal long forward handballs. Instead we often went long by foot, and often to a contest. I reckon that was a tactic, supported really stretching their defence by putting Petty up forward the second half, having Lanford push into the forward line as a marking option, ditto for Culley. We negated some if their key strengths- not only did we frustrate their ability to transition the ball, by doing so they couldn't get their overlap handball going in way that creates space inside their 50 and lots of one on one contests (the one where King outmarked Tmac on the lead was the perfect example of how they like to move the ball from the back half and create space inside 50, a method that had neen.the key ro their high scoring this season - but that King mark was very much the exception to the rule yesterday) In many ways, apart fom how quickly players moved the ball on after a mark, with the focis on territory and winning contests, clearances and stoppages, yesterday was more similar to the method we used in 2021 - 2023 than our method in the preseason and first 3 games.

You're probably right. The funny thing is Claz probably won't, and really, Claz deserves more Demon angst than Tracc. Sure Tracc wanted out, but we got 3 first rounders in the trade and his massive salary of our books. And its not as if he didn't play well for us last season. I always loved Claz, but bottom line is pre his hammy related melt down, with his off field stuff he was super high maintenance. And once injured, he was totally unprofessional in how he managed it for the rest of that season (before being kicked out of the Anglesea preseason camp and told to go away and decide if we wanted to play AFL football) Yes, I believe he was struggling with mutiple issues, and I think the club did the right thing by supporting him to address them. And he did seem to do the hard yards to get to netter place, played pretty well too in his last two seasons. But he's gone, we got nothing for him tradewise and have to pay half his million dollar salary for the next 5 years.

🍿?

Agree, we have to be switched on, though I'd be beyond disappointed if we weren't (and very surprised) - we're a long, long way from being in a position to take any team lightly. I expect we'll come out firing. Maxy in his interview on the ground after the game mentioned the bombers beating us the last 3 times in Gather round and that we owe them. By the by, we're ay at Adelaide oval, which is aprox the same size as the G

I'm sorry picket, but as a card carrying member of IPS (International Pedant Society), I have to say that makes no @$%@&^ sense! The Nova? Sure. The Astor? Absolutely. Village? OK. But Home Theatre System as a play on Cinema? Nup. I mean a home theatre is almost literally the opposite of a cinema!

Conversely rhe crowd noise by dees fans at the ground was incredible given there was only 24k there. I watched the replay last night and the noise really came accross on the TV, particularly the booing, so much so the commentators mentioned it several times. On booing i heard a few people around me say they would have booed tracc, which to be honest surprised me a bit (ie the angst towards him). With the mood the crowd was in he may well have copped some serious booing. And on the Suns crowd, i was sitting in the Olympic stand in an all Melbourne bay. The seats in the bay next to me, normally the seats for the President's lunch, looked like it had all been sold to Sund fans. The next bay along was all Melbourne reserved. Means the Suns fans were smack bang in the middle of loud demon fans going off. Welcome to the G.

I might have missed them, but had there been many posts seriously discussing finals?