binman

Can't wait to go this game. I live in the Southwest, so Casey is, pardon the pun, a Westgate bridge too far. So I've penciled in this game, round 8 versus the Pies at Vic Park, and most exciting of all as its even closer than Whitten Oval, round 13 against Willy at Willy.

I respectfully disagree. The Champion Data player ratings are, in my humble, by far the best, most accurate such rating system. In the Saints Dees game the top 7 rated players were (note 20 ratings points is considered an elite AA level performance): Max Hall - 28 points JVR - 25 points Jack Sinclair - 20.2 points Jack Steele - 19.7 points NAS - 16.4 points Sam Flanders - 15.8 points Maxy - 15.7 points This is the coaches votes: 9 Jacob van Rooyen 8 Max Hall 7 Max Gawn 2 Callum Wilkie 2 Jack Sinclair 1 Jack Steele 1 Caleb Windsor Five of the top CD rated players got coaches votes, with the same top two (albeit in different order). The coaches obviously put more stock on intangibles like huge last quarter performances or kicking clutch goals (goals are big point scorers, hence JVRs rating's but there is no differentiation about when, and in what circumstances those golas are scored) that have an outsize influence on the result. Which is why Maxy got 7 coaches vote - he was massive factor in us winning that game with his huge last quarter. Windsor, who had 12.3 player rating points, was super influential in the first half so i can sort understand him getting one coaches vote. That said i would have given Sharp votes. He was our fourth highest rayed player for the game (13.9 points) and had an incredible last quarter - 11.2 rating points for a quarter of footy is unbelievable (a goal, goal assist and score involvements were a big factor in that rating). By way of contrast, Maxy, who was also massive in the last quarter, and super influential on the result, had 6.5 rating points in the last q. Sharp was a big reason we won that game and deserved coaches votes IMHO - well done young fella.

Put it this way, we are currently 3.28 to win and Freo are 1.34 and i reckon that's about right. But hope springs eternal. I actually think in many ways we are better placed to beat them than we were in the last few seasons, in large part because King has built a team with genuine leg speed. Freo has torched us with their fleet of fit, fast runners in the last few years. But with Tracc and Claz gone, and Melk an Tmac not in the ones, we don't have as many slow players in our best 23. And with Koz and Windsor up around the ball, Latrell playing a high half forward role, ditto Chandler, CJ and Howes down back (and XL has pretty good wheels too) and Sharp playing more minutes we are much better placed to match Freo's ability to run, carry and spread. The other positive is we look super fit atm - we won't be in better shape at any pont in the season than we are this week with one game under our belt. A terrific time then to play the hard running Freo side - certainly better than mid-season when fatigue and/or the impact of mid-season loading has been a big factor in them torching us on the outside. For me the key will be whether our defensive system holds up on turnover as Freo will have better forward target than the Saints, are better on transition and have better delivers of the ball inside 50. And they won't turn the ball over nearly as much as the Saints so i don't think we'll beat them in a shootout. A great thing about the win over the Saints is it reduces the anxiety of losing a string of games early doors and we can attack this game without that pressure. It will be the perfect test of where we are at i reckon.

To be fair, Hall had an amazing game. You could easily make the case he was BOG - in fact I reckon he was.

The magnificent goal Latrelle kicked was the perfect example of why King targeted CJ and his role in the team and King's sytem. Maxy won the ball inside the Saints 50 and handballed (look away over his head mind you) to CJ who was boundary side to Max. Instead of going down the line, which was the percentage play, CJ ran and carried laterally to the opposite side (towards the members) and kicked long to Kolt, who had run off Nas. That opened up the Saints, Latrelle gut run into the space created by the switch, Kolt didn't take the short option, instead kicking a perfect 50 metre kick that hit Latrelle, who didn't have to break stride. One of the best, most exciting goals I've seen by a dees player in years. And it doesn't happen without CJ's dare, run and carry and preparedness to take on a high risk, high reward switch kick.

You watch much football?

Thanks wheelo - that's really interesting. Funnily enough i just said on the pod (or after talking to Andy and George - i cant recall which) that for all the talk about us being a long bomb team under Goody, which was true from 2020 to the 2024, but decidedly not true last season, that I'd be willing to bet that under King we will actually kick long for territory more often and that will be reflected in higher average metres gained per kick. Obviously a small sample, but our metres gained per kick yesterday was 27.9 against a season average last season of 26.2 metres gained per kick (we were mid table for that stat last season - the Suns were on top of that table).

Yep, fair point.

Perhaps. Though i think the evidence was clear we were not running out games last year - i'd suggest a happy group of players are more likley to do the work required to get in tip top shape than a bunch of unhappy players. And i'd note that speaking to Lever and Kolt at a player's sponsor function, both, independantly, told me the amount of running they did in the preseason was off the charts and much more intense than in previous seasons. But leaving that aside, Trac was nowhere near as fit last season as he obvioulsly is this seaosn, Claz was miles off optimal AFL level fitness, ditto Steve May. That's three of our starting 18 not at optimal fitness. Those three have been replaced in the starting 18 by much fitter players - that's a big boost to the overall fitness of the side right there.

Yep, fair call

Fantastic stuff wheelo. You read my mind as knowing the CD pressure ratings are not readily available I was going to use AI to test my hypothesis that the pressure ratings were low accross all games (highlighting the weakness of AI LLMs it's likely no bots would be able to source that info as it's behind paywalls). But reports of the death of pressure as the key indicator are premature. Early days, and come the last third of the season - and in particular finals - it will once again be all about pressure.

OR is ridiculous, and I've found it interesting how many coaches have been prepared to say so. So emblamatic of the AFL's philosophy of putting profit and market share over ensuring the competition is as fair and equitable as possible. I mean it creates a potential inequity from the very beginning of the season. But if they ARE going to have an OR, surely the logical thing to do would for all 8 teams who play OR to play a team who also played in OR in round one.

Wholeheartedly agree. Sure Nas kicked 3 and he had a really good game, tgough not a match winning one (it’s a measure of how well he is playing that his player rating was 16.7 and was the Saints 3rd highest rated player, yet most would consider he had an average game). But in a game with 33 goals kicked 3 goals is not a match winning haul, and I think I'm right in saying all three were kicked when he was playing forward, presumably trying, and I guess succeeding, to exploit Kolt defending him. But I'd much rather Nas play forward than on ball, particularly in the last quarter when his elite run and carry and bal use would have much more a concern than being moored inside his 50. In that context comparative score involvements tell an interesting tale. Nas had 6 (which includes his 3 goals) and Kolt had 8.

Low all team pressure - however I think that is a function of both team's method and will be a trend for us and the competition (the same factor drving the increased importance of ball use equity compared to ball winning equity). Fewer stoppages, less emphasis on winning contested balls (except post clearance - i think that willl remain critical) and more outside run and carry combine to mean less opportunity to accumulate pressure points from physical contact (the highest scoring actions).

Brilliant, many thanks @WheeloRatings. Really like the new stats. Am I right to assume the equity points is an aggregate of player ratings to arrive at a whole of team score?

Absolutely Was just thinking about how fluid the midfield rotations were. Rather than the standard starting mid model there's core mids in Kozz, Steele, Rivers and Windsor and a bunch of others who roll thru the middle, like Langford (who otherwise plays on the wing), Sparrow, Kolt and Lindsay. Interesting mix of players, many of whom are big boys, and skill sets.

It felt wrong when I posted it - and it wasn't evwn an Ai error, I was repeating what they said on ABC post hame (but perhaps they meant key forwards or more likely first half).

18.12 - 120 15.17 - 107 4 points.

With his eyes I'm assuming

As the great sage Flavor Flav said, don't believe the hype. Scoring will drop soon enough as fatigue starts being more of a factor . Teams are in their optimal shape atm (which would terrify Blues and bombers fans as both teams look miles off fitness wise) and can manage the huge amount of running the current style demands. As their fitness tails off, and coaches baulk at giving up huge scores, teams will slow the game down more often, fie exampleby the chip mark, and then go fast, method the lions use, and the Hawks and Pies both seem to be copying.

Closing in on 100 AFL games (today is his 95th). Love players that get the best out of themselves. Love Omac

Or the Benny Hill music

I reckon they should play a song when the OPPOSITION kicks a point - perhaps Loser by Beck.