binman

You can borrow one my sledges for such fans from the bad old days (ie 1977 to 2017, with some gaps) - a half decent team would have beaten us by 8 goals.

Thanks @WheeloRatings That would suggest we didn't push up on them hard (which accrues pressure points) after taking a mark. Normally that would mean our pressure game was off but as you note we smashed them in contested possessions, which is an unusual combination- ie low pressure rating, high cp numbers. I wonder if not pressing up was by design? The pies are one of the best transition teams in the AFL - when they press go. Daniel Hoyne has pointed out they are the slowest side in the AFL by some margin in Moving the ball from a mark or free (conversely we are one of the quickest). Perhaps the strategy was to let them have those marks and use the time they give teams to set up our defensive grid and make it difficult to transition. If so it was wildly successful- they only scored 28 points from their defensive half. For context on average we have conceded nearly 41 points from the back half this season (67 last week). Keeping the pies, as noted a gun transition team, to only 28 points from their back half on what was essentially a dry day, is seriously impressive.

I'm amazed our pressure was so low. 146 in the last quarter? That doesn't seem right,

This is one of the arguments the media often make when poo pooiing the idea of umpires going professional. Not having a shot at you Nasher, but it's one if the arguments that does my head in because it's got a false assumption baked into it. The assumption is a professional umpiring model would build on the current model - which is that most (all?) umpires are well paid professionals in other fields (usually white collar it would seem, and often lauded as smart, high achievers in that field) and part time umpires. But they don't have to be. And perhaps that model is actually part of the problem. An alternative professional model is having a base starting salary of say 130k for AFL umpires. And then bonuses on top - eg finals, marquee games, performance, accuracy, etc. And perhaps have some levels, eg based on games officiated, performance etc so the base for the best is say 200k plus bonuses. They train together as a group (aerobic, decision making, team work etc etc) officiate AFL games, AFLW games and go out to local footy clubs leagues and help train young umpires. I suspect plenty of young men and women who love footy, want to be involved in AFL footy would but know they won't make it as a player, would see that as a legitimate career pathway. One that they could be involved in until their 40s. We don't need high achieveing accountants and lawyers who are part time umpires. We need high achieving umpires.

Fritter just had to go back, use up his full 30 seconds, and kick the goal.

It's beyond a [censored] joke. Another bloody game where instead of just enjoying the contest I'm livid at the standard of the umpiring. What's the bloody deal with umpires 50 metres away from a contest overruling an umpire who is 15 meters from the contest with an unimpeded view (eg the Howes marking contest free) - happens every week. Made worse when they DON'T overuse blatant howlers or missed decisions, which i thought was the only time a non-controlling umpire was supposed to pay a free (the bizarre decision to pay a block against Melk in one on two contest when he was clearly shoved in the back) What's the deal with the ridiculous inconsistency (eg sparrow insufficient attempt and then no free against daicos, tracc holding the ball with zero time to dispose of it then pies players with more time and no free)? What's the deal with ruck lotto decisions? What's the deal with non-decisions for blatant free kicks One of the things that infuriates me is all the AFL accredited journalists give the idea of making them full time professionals is ALWAYS rejected out of hand by almost every single one of them. I mean it's the only logical thing to do. And the media's halfhearted criticism of the standard of umpiring as if fans are just making it up how poor the standard of umpiring is, how much it is ruining the game for fans. Can't bite the hand that feeds. And to be clear i don't blame the umpires. I blame the [censored] AFL. And i truly believe they don't make meaningful efforts to improve the standards of umpiring because all of the angst and controversy is such great content.

It's beyond a [censored] joke. Another bloody game where instead of just enjoying the contest I'm livid at the standard of the umpiring. What's the bloody deal with umpires 50 metreS away from a contest overrulimg an umpire who is 15 metres from the cintest with an unimpeded virew (eg the Howes marking contest free) - happens every week. Made worse when they DON'T overuse blatant howlers or missed decisions, which i thought was the only time a non controlling umpire was supposed to pay a free (the bizarre decision to pay a block against melk in one on two contest when he was clearly shoved in the back) What's the deal with the ridiculous inconsistency (eg sparrow insufficient attempt and then no free against daicos, tracc holding the ball with zero time to dispose od it then pies players with more time and no free)? What's the deal with ruck lotto decisions? Whats the deal with non decisions of blatant free kicks One of the things that infuriates me us all the AFL accredited journalists give the idea of making them full time professionals is ALWAYS rejected out of hand by almost every single one if them. I mean it's the only logical thing to do. And the media's half hearted criticism of the standard of umpiring as if fans are just making it up how poor the standard of umpiring is, how much it is ruining the game for fans. Can't bite the hand that feeds. And to be clear i don't blame the umpires. I blame the [censored] AFL. And i truly believe they don't make meaningful efforts to improve the standards of umpiring because all of the angst and controversy is such great content.

Bloke kicked 30 goals in the 2024 season, two more than he kicked in 2023. Thirty goals in a season for a 21 year key forward, in a year we didn't make finals, playing as second ruck, is outstanding and compares favourably with the very best key forwards in the last 20-30 years. But sure, still living on the promise of 2023.

Howe is pretty good sub option I reckon. Offers terrific flexibility. As you say he can play back, tall and small and at a pinch, as you suggest, forward. But he can also play wing, releasing the boson to play as a mid or replacing him or Lindsay.

Ross the boss Glendinning being a big one I suspect.

I find it so weird - presumably people who post on thiscsite support the dees. Yet some just do nothing but knock tbe club. It makes it impossible to take anything they write seriously.

I was at that game. The worst thing I've ever seen on a football field. It was a smart coaching move by Barass to put Smith on Matthews, who was basically playing as a full forward. Normally Matthews had defenders on him roughly the same size but he'd was just too good one on one. Smith was taller obviously and was giving Matthews a comeyebath. So Matthews hit him, from behind IIRC - certainly Smith didn't see it coming. Lost all respect for Matthews that day. Still infuriates me the esteem he is held in.

At least your pain was soothed. Not mine - backed lions for a win (though more at the line, so the pain wasn't too bad - but jeez, kicking the bloody goal lions!)

That's the numbers for this season, fir us but you'rer right its not a direct correlation of course - though I will note that in the four wins you highlight the gap in pressure rating was marginal in three as you note the swans game tied). And I'd also note 66% hit rate is statistically significant. I suspect if the analysis was say 10 pressure points differential or would be close to 100%.

That's a good point. He has said he want to be a leader and for much of the ladtb2 years has been our best key forward. Perhaps he puts a bit too much pressure on himself and as you say if he doesn't feel he has to the man, so to speak, up forward he can play with a bot more freedom.

Well Cameron, who whilst tall, does not play as a tradional key tall forward, or rarely does. He's really more a flanker. Nealeis the Cats key forward. Meaning neither top 2 players in the coleman are key forward. But, sure key talls are still important. And most of that list are key forwards. But look at the average goals per game. King is the leading goal scorer amongst the tall forwards. At his current average, King will kick 61 goals for the home and away season. Hogan won the coleman last year with 69. And as i said neither the the pies or lions, one and two on the ladder, have a dominant key forward. The crows are third and do have dominant key forwards, so are an outlier. But the key is still their fadt ball movement.

We are doing that much better (ie sepeatimf decences) much better this year, certainly in our wins.

Do you mean Brad Green's letters to members?

We have a media department?

Weird how taj is the only player who's right up is not in italics - code of some sort (jokes btw)?

It's a factor. I think a related challenge for jvr is, as ive noted in other posts, two of the key metrics for tall forwards is ensuring their opponent doesn't take intercept marks and bringing the ball to ground so the smalls and mediums can go to work. By definition that involves lots of tight, shoulder to shoulder battles which can't be easy for a young key forward. But honestly I think the main challenge for JVR is that he is still young, particularly for a key forward. They're cliches because they're true - key tall take longer to get to their peak than other players and improvement is not linear. For proof of that just look at JVRs peers, ie other young key forwards - JUH, Amiss, Logan McDonald, Amartey, Treacy, Philthorp, Neale, Cadman. All have had periods with big dips in their performances. Treacy is a good comparison to JVR. He's been terrific this year, after a good 2024. But he's had his dips too - and its work noting thst he's almost a year older than JVR. JVR is a gun and IMO will be back soon playing elite footy for the dees.

Of all stats, pressure rating is now by far and away the most reliable indicator in terms of the correlation between winning that stat and winning a game. The real challenge for teams is its simply not possible to bring elite pressure for more than say 3 or 4 weeks in a row. Tops.

It's interesting actually, for all the talk about our need for a gun forward, the reality is in 202, as Daniel Hoyne often notes, the key is what happens with the ball (ie ball movement from the back half, kicking skills, ability to hit targets indside 50 and kicking skills of half back flanks, mids and wingers) not ahead of it. That's to say gun tall forwards are no longer critical in the way they were 10 years ago. Carlton is the obvious example as they have arguably two of the best key forwards in the AFL and they can't score. In contrast the two best sides atm, the pies and the lions, don't have a dominant key tall (though Miochek whilst not that tall plays tall - a terrific player). It's just so hard now for key forwards to take contested marks inside 50 and they rarely get clear leading lanes that players like Dunstall used to such great effect. In terms of forwards, its hard to argue that the most important players are now small to medium forward amd mid/forwards like Elliot, Bailey, Koz, Papley etc etc.

Release the Epstein files!

Depends on the circumstances.