binman

Binman's match preview: After another ridiculous OR played in the northern heat and humidity, most of round one has been played in similarly uncomfortable conditions. But as the rain thumps down here in Melbourne on Sunday, it feels like a proper footy day for the start of the Demons 2025 campaign. I can't recall feeling as excited, and unsure of what to expect, at the start of a new season for many years. With the tweaks to our game plan, five players playing their first AFL games, including two mature age players, Sharp making his Demon debut, the weather and the Giants having played already there's any number of factors which makes this a really hard game to get a handle on. So I'll just focus on some of the key things exercising my mind. Weather: Looking at the radar my best guess is the rain will clear by game time. The MCG drains well, but it's still likely to be slippery. Tactics It's a myth that wet conditions is a leveller in terms of skills - so the giants' superior foot skills means the weather advantages them on that front. The weather also really favours the giants in terms of their fleet of small to medium forwards. Unfortunately a weakness of ours is covering such players, exacerbated today by no Mcveee. And we also lack such players in our forward line - and no koz makes that a huge problem for us. Together those factors present a huge challenge for us. Our ability to meet that challenge will, in my view, decide our fortunes. On the plus side there'll be more stoppages, which definitely plays to our strengths - particularly in terms of how many midfield bulls we have. Tracc, Clarry, VIney, Langford and Sparrow will love these conditions. And with Briggs not playing we have an advantage in the ruck so i expect us to win the clearance battle. However the key, as always, is not winning the clearance count, but winning the scores from clearances. Slippery conditions also mean the fast transition game the giants like to play will be harder to implement - kicks become harder to hit, more marks get dropped and those super quick handball chains break down more often. The conditions mean presure, contest and territory become critical. Even though they are also a strong contest side, that sort of footy is in our DNA. Look for us to focus on repeat inside-50s, creating stoppages, getting it inside 50 and keeping it there. Like most coaches, Goodwin backs his system. But I have a feeling that part of the tactical retooling goody has been working on since the 2024 preseason has been developing different modes of playing, including methods that mitigate the strength of our opponents. Just like we did against Freo in the practice game, I expect that we'll look to chip the ball around the back half until we can get a good opening up the ground to move the ball. One, that minimizes turnovers, because we're not being territory for territory's sake and blindly dumping it down the line Two, it keeps it out of their hands, and it means that they're less able to get it on the outside and use their relative leg speed advantage to hurt us. I'm really fascinated by our defensive system and it seems this is a real work in progress. Two preseason games is a small sample size, but tactically i see this year as an extension of last year, not a completely new model. We are still using a zone defence of course but not setting our anchor defender as deep as we did in 2020-2023. And we seem to be pushing our defensive line up higher (as is now standard). Though as evidence of goody using different modes in different circumstances it seems how aggressive we press up is circumstance dependent. I think with the conditions, and their leg speed and ability to transition, whilst we'll be looking to trap it in our front half our press won't be overly aggressive and like he did against freo, May will play pretty deep as the anchor (with Petty helping out). Key stats For us to win I think we'll need a positive differential in the following stats: Pressure - the most important stat in football. Only the pies in 2023 regularly won games with a negative pressure differential Scores from turnover - killed us last year. We simply can't afford to lose that stat. Scores from stoppages - we simply have to take advantage of our likely clearance dominance Scores from defensive half - the giants smashed the pies for this syar last week. We can't let that happen today. Uncontested marks - we can't let the giants pull us apart with heaps of uncontested marks. Tackles inside D50 - will be critical on today's conditions. Telstra tracker - fitness is critical. There is a paucity of data that can help evidence fitness. The best is top 5 distances covered, repeat sprints and speed. When at our fittest we dominate these numbers. Accuracy - need I say more? Prediction As always, my heart says the dees. But my head says the Giants are the more probable winner. But hope springs external and I can't wait to watch the mighty dees smash in this afternoon. Go redlegs.

Binman's match preview: After another ridiculous OR played in the northern heat and humidity, most of round one has been played in similarly uncomfortable conditions. But as the rain thumps down here in Melbourne on Sunday, it feels like a proper footy day for the start of the Demons 2025 campaign. I can't recall feeling as excited, and unsure of what to expect, at the start of a new season for many years. With the tweaks to our game plan, five players playing their first AFL games, including two mature age players, Sharp making his Demon debut, the weather and the Giants having played already there's any number of factors which makes this a really hard game to get a handle on. So I'll just focus on some of the key things exercising my mind. Weather: Looking at the radar my best guess is the rain will clear by game time. The MCG drains well, but it's still likely to be slippery. Tactics It's a myth that wet conditions is a leveller in terms of skills - so the giants' superior foot skills means the weather advantages them on that front. The weather also really favours the giants in terms of their fleet of small to medium forwards. Unfortunately a weakness of ours is covering such players, exacerbated today by no Mcveee. And we also lack such players in our forward line - and no koz makes that a huge problem for us. Together those factors present a huge challenge for us. Our ability to meet that challenge will, in my view, decide our fortunes. On the plus side there'll be more stoppages, which definitely plays to our strengths - particularly in terms of how many midfield bulls we have. Tracc, Clarry, VIney, Langford and Sparrow will love these conditions. And with Briggs not playing we have an advantage in the ruck so i expect us to win the clearance battle. However the key, as always, is not winning the clearance count, but winning the scores from clearances. Slippery conditions also mean the fast transition game the giants like to play will be harder to implement - kicks become harder to hit, more marks get dropped and those super quick handball chains break down more often. The conditions mean presure, contest and territory become critical. Even though they are also a strong contest side, that sort of footy is in our DNA. Look for us to focus on repeat inside-50s, creating stoppages, getting it inside 50 and keeping it there. Like most coaches, Goodwin backs his system. But I have a feeling that part of the tactical retooling goody has been working on since the 2024 preseason has been developing different modes of playing, including methods that mitigate the strength of our opponents. Just like we did against Freo in the practice game, I expect that we'll look to chip the ball around the back half until we can get a good opening up the ground to move the ball. One, that minimizes turnovers, because we're not being territory for territory's sake and blindly dumping it down the line Two, it keeps it out of their hands, and it means that they're less able to get it on the outside and use their relative leg speed advantage to hurt us. I'm really fascinated by our defensive system and it seems this is a real work in progress. Two preseason games is a small sample size, but tactically i see this year as an extension of last year, not a completely new model. We are still using a zone defence of course but not setting our anchor defender as deep as we did in 2020-2023. And we seem to be pushing our defensive line up higher (as is now standard). Though as evidence of goody using different modes in different circumstances it seems how aggressive we press up is circumstance dependent. I think with the conditions, and their leg speed and ability to transition, whilst we'll be looking to trap it in our front half our press won't be overly aggressive and like he did against freo, May will play pretty deep as the anchor (with Petty helping out). Key stats For us to win I think we'll need a positive differential in the following stats: Pressure - the most important stat in football. Only the pies in 2023 regularly won games with a negative pressure differential Scores from turnover - killed us last year. We simply can't afford to lose that stat. Scores from stoppages - we simply have to take advantage of our likely clearance dominance Scores from defensive half - the giants smashed the pies for this syar last week. We can't let that happen today. Uncontested marks - we can't let the giants pull us apart with heaps of uncontested marks. Tackles inside D50 - will be critical on today's conditions. Telstra tracker - fitness is critical. There is a paucity of data that can help evidence fitness. The best is top 5 distances covered, repeat sprints and speed. When at our fittest we dominate these numbers. Accuracy - need I say more? Prediction As always, my heart says the dees. But my head says the Giants are the more probable winner. But hope springs external and I can't wait to watch the mighty dees smash in tgis afternoon. Go redlegs.

How many throws have been let go so far this round? It's nuts.

What about loitering in a tent?

Yep. Exception and rule and all that. By the by the bombers defence is pathetic - both in terms of system and personelle.

Richo is no Rhodes scholar. He reckons every team should play in OR. What would the next round be called?

Yep. But their method is completely dependent on their running power. It's a long season and as we saw with both the hawks and swans if that aspect drops off so do they.

Absolutely, wasn't arguing otherwise. You still have to get inside 50 but. Which is basically what hoyne said in the segment being discussed I reckon the percentage of games won in the 2-3 last seasons by teams having fewer inside 50s than their opponent would be vanishingly small (and yes I know the lions won the flag with 2 less inside 50s). And I'd add that one thing that hasn't changed is pressure is critical and the team thay applies most pressure is more likely to win (though pies in 2023 were an outlier in this regard).

I'm officially retiring from guessing team selections - no Tmac (who i least walkred back yesterday), Billings or Turner. I thought the latter two were locks - ditto Tmac a week or so ago. (The expected rain might be a factor in the call on tmac and turner) Henderson is a genuine bolter, but i guess we needed a small forward to cover koz. I'm happy JVR won't have to ruck. How great for Henderson and AJ to share a debut. Werribee tigers must be thrilled. What a buzz for so many players to debut. I wonder if the tiger's energy last night was a factor? I'm pumped.

Well, its not quite a fact. Hoyne didn't say it inside 50s were not a factor for those premiership winning teams - far from it. Of course it's a factor - just not as big a factor as it once was (reflecting the change in how the game is now played by tge best teams).

I barely listen or watch any footy media anymore. I can't stand most of it. Hoyne is an exception. I really like him - he's the only media analyst i listen to regularly (via the sportsday pod on spotify which separates all the segments out meaning i don't have to listen to the other guff. I hadn't listened to him yet this year - did so on the train to work this morning. Ball movement has been a hobby horse for Hoyne for a few seasons now. He was right on to it as something to 'watch' with the way the Pies started playing under McRae in 2022, and of course in 2023. As you suggest by ball movement he is talking about transition from the 'defensive half'. As you suggest that is measured by goals from the defensive half. By the by its important to note that defensive half means the defensive side of the center line NOT a team's defensive area (eg from half back, or inside D50), as it's often conflated with. I say important because i think sometimes people assume transition happens from deep in a team's defence. The other key stat related to transition and ball movement is turnovers. The best transition teams (ball movement) create lots of turnovers thru their pressure and then move the ball down the field effectively (like GWS v pies).

Dismantle would be a more accurate sobriquet.

I didn't hear that, though he talked it about it last year as emerging trend (was 3 of 4 then). I would be be very surprised if he said the inside 50 count was not a factor.

They have kicked 8 of the last 9? The blues look on the back foot and the tigers look like they are running on top of the ground better. You may well be right. Whatever happens from here it's a worry for the blues. Imagine their equivalent of the Demonland game day thread right now!

He's still a good chance of being selected. However, I've come to terms as evidenced by this bit from a previous post in this thread: The other challenge we face defensively is our relative lack of leg speed. If we don't play the deep anchor role we have traditionally used to defend turnovers (or use it less often -or perhaps set not as deep) our defenders have to have the wheels to get back when we turn it over. And we are not blessed with speed. On that front I've been very bullish that tmac plays, but perhaps Howes gets the nod as he is considerably quicker than tmac. And I've no doubt this a big factor in Windsor going back.

Squad only tonight?

I wonder if the weather might be a factor. Jeffo is probably better at ground level than AJ so might be a better bet if its wet?

I've been very impressed by Sharp's running power and speed - not to mention his goal sense. As much as i loved Nibbla, i think Sharp is an excellent replacement.

Yep, fair point. But the speed i'm really referring to is what they call striding speed - ie the ability cover territory, say 150 meters, at good clip. Teams now need multiple players with elite striding speed to bolt back to defend turnover and on transition run hard to get ahead of the ball and provide a link up or inside 50 option. Nibbla is the exemplar of that sort of player.

Yep, fair call (though i'm not sold on Salem, Oliver & Rivers having decent enough pace) - and Spargs is not slow. But May, Lever and Tmac are all pretty slow which can expose us defensively when those players push up high and the ball is turned over.

Personally I think the biggest challenges we have in terms of implementing a new, more agrresive method, in order of importance are: - our defensive system - our propensity to turn the ball over - leg speed And obviously fitness is a key factor as attacking with fast ball movement and aggressive transition, and of equall importance defending the same, is impossible for a whole game without elite fitness and running power. We saw the perfect example of the above in the pies gws game. Surely to goodness the pies blew up with the humidity or some such - how else to explain them stopping to a walk in the last quarter of their first game of the season. If the issue is they are simply not fit enough they are toast this season. The pies run fell off a cliff in the last quarter (and late in quarters) and they couldn't transition the ball. But more worryingly for them they couldn't defend transition. Evidencing that issue, the giants outscored the pies by 8 goals from defensive half transitions, a big chunk of that in the last quarter. It looked so similar to many of our losses in the back half of last season. It's ironic given the pies were the masters of transition footy, winning a flag just 18 months ago with that method. We've now had two preseasons drilling in more offensive transition and practicing strategies like long forward handballs that many teams seem to be implementing. And signs are positive that we have the fitness to implement a more attacking transition game. But we took years to implement a zone based defensive system, the best in the AFL for much of 2021 to 2023. Now we have to retool that system, which is no easy thing given defensive systems rely on every player (including non-defenders) instinctively understanding the structures and their own role. And have complete trust their teammates do so too. The other challenge we face defensively is our relative lack of leg speed. If we don't play the deep anchor role we have traditionally used to defend turnovers (or use it less often -or perhaps set not as deep) our defenders have to have the wheels to get back when we turn it over. And we are not blessed with speed. On that front I've been very bullish that tmac plays, but perhaps Howes gets the nod as he is considerably quicker than tmac. And I've no doubt this a big factor in Windsor going back. Turnovers were a key factor in most of our losses last year. They killed us, both in terms of breaking potential scoring chains and exposing our defence. We have targeted players who are good kicks in the last few years - for example Laurie, Sestan, Hunter and Billings. Windsor, Langford and Francis obviously have other positive attributes but all are good kicks. Turnovers are always going to happen. Even the very best kicks miss targets and turn it over. And all teams turn the ball over regularly. The difference is in the margins. We only need to reduce our turnovers by a relatively small percentage to get a big improvement. Can we do that? I'm not convinced we'll radically reduce turnovers, but again we don't have to. Another preseason of drilling transition will help (for example because players will more instinctively know where teammates should be) and the addition of Langford and in particular Lindsay helps. And I think we will see goody continue to use the strategy of chipping it around in the back half, particularly against quick teams, to reduce turnovers (and control tempo, helping ensure games don't become end to end running fests). By the by, on a related note, the focus on Billings missed shots at goal is a complete furphy - as frustrating as those misses are, kicking goals is not his role. Being a link in transition chains and defending turnovers is his role. And key to both is reducing turnovers. I can't see Billings not being selected- he's quick enough, looks super fit and crucially is reliable by foot, particularly those boring, but critical 20 metre kicks that if turned over (hello Mr May) cost us goals both ways.

You have hair extensions? Too soon?

I see you skipper.

G'day punters. There won't be a Demonland pod this week due to the site reboot that has absorbed 99% of the boss' time, energy and focus in the last week (the other 1% was spent with his family, who had started asking each other 'where's pappa Demonland' trying reassure them he hadn't up and left - and yes that's what they call him). Thanks for all your work skipper, ditto Nasher. Massive thanks also to Mrs Demonland and Demonland juniors for your patience - pappa will be home soon. The Demonland pod will return next Monday night at 7:30am to dissect our game against the Giants. In the next couple of days I'll post in this thread my preview of the match.

I can't open this thread.