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Everything posted by binman

  1. No, it's not - though the more skilled kicks we can squeeze into the team the more snaps under pressure (because of the congestion inside 50) will go thru. An irony of our model is against non contenders we smash them for time in forward half, say 60-40 and inside 50s so it is actually harder to be 'efficient' in terms of scores per inside 50 (because of the congestion inside 50). Against the better teams we might only win time in forward half 55-45 and so there is less reentries and less congestion inside 50. And greater efficiency.
  2. I thought that was fascinating too. He hasn't mentioned it on 360 as far I know. Funny to hear him feign ignorance. The damn wall is starting to break. Loading will be fully analysed and discussed in the next couple of years. With the selwood comment he wreferencing selwood's mid season comments last season about their loading in the bye period.
  3. With tmac and Grundy it's an either or, not a both situation
  4. For a whole bunch of reasons, i would say almost certainly not. Brenton Sanderson was asked this question on whateley the Thursday before round 23 (a game they got smashed by the Lions, in large part becuase of all their outs). From 6:14 to 8:33:
  5. I'm not a KISS fan, and agree it is crazy not to book Aaussie bands, but there is one big difference to meatloaf. Meatloaf was very much a has been and decades past being a top seller. I heard Gerard Whately say something similar ie kids won't know who KISS are. But in fact he was just showing out of touch he is. KISS remain huge and continue to find new, young audiences all over the world. They are huge with kids now. People don't but CDs much anymore, but KISS are making a fortune from streaming. On spotify they get over 13 million monthly listeners and their most streamed song is I was made for loving you with over 800 million streams. Those numbers aren't all old foggies reliving their misspent youth. Millions of kids love them. For the same reason they continue to rake in serious coin with touring . Their last major tour was i think 2019. KISS were the only hard rock act in the top 10 grossing tours in the US that year, coming in at number 7, grossing more that $80 mill US 2019 Top 10 North American Tours 1. The Rolling Stones ($177.8M gross; 784,652 tickets sold) 2. Elton John ($157.4M gross; 1,155,510 tickets sold) 3. Bob Seger & the Silver Bullet Band ($97.0M gross;, 867,925 tickets sold) 4. Pink ($87.9M gross; 624,419 tickets sold) 5. Ariana Grande ($82.6M gross; 700,053 tickets sold) 6. Jonas Brothers ($81.7M gross; 769,310 tickets sold) 7. KISS ($81.6 M gross; 800,302 tickets sold) 8. Fleetwood Mac ($77.5M gross; 544,286 tickets sold) 9. Garth Brooks ($76.1M gross; 856,000 tickets sold) 10. Justin Timberlake ($75.6M gross; 568,449 tickets sold) On top of all of that they continue to make millions annually from merchandise (having more than a billion dollars in merch sales over their career). They aint no meatloaf.
  6. Some random reflections on above: Oppo watch The Pies high ranking in points per I50s is reflection of their method - really fast transition from the back half disrupts their opponents ability to get their zone set and creates space inside 50, leading lanes for their forwards and more one on ones and therefore 'efficiency' inside 50 When on, the Pies also run in waves and get players ahead of the ball and create free options inside 50 - again this supports high conversion of inside 50s to scores Conversely our low ranking for points per I50s is reflection of a key element of our method - win time in forward half, and when we cant trap it inside 50 or score set up a wall, win it back and a get a reentry When we do we are invariably kicking into a super congested forward area with 30 plus player squeezed inside 50 and therefore we are not as 'efficient' It's huge worry for the pies that their ability to get inside 50 and stopping oppos score once in inside 50 has fallen away so dramatically in the last 5 weeks - same goes for the CP numbers In fact their drop off is really clear in the table - compare their season ranking to their ranking for the last 5 games - in all but one stat (points scored inside 50) they really fall away - we drop a bit too, but not by much and improve our i50 ranking The Pies numbers form the last 5 games are hugely inflated by their win over the bombers, in particular their scores per inside 50 - that was just a ridiculous low pressure game and the bombers were hopeless in terms of their defensive running allowing the Pies just to waltz it down the ground at will Take that game out and their numbers are even more alarming Keys to the game Contest and deefence have bene the buzz words of late in terms describing our game and you've nailed that with the the key stats i'd add it is critical we win the inside 50 diff, time in forward half and scores from turnover differential metrics I reckon you've nailed it DD on what i consider to the the critical factor - we are running out games better. it is just so easy to see and so different to where we were at last year - and the problem for the pies is that there is simply no way to turn that around at this point in the season. The fitness levels are the fitness levels The fitness issue is key in any game, but particularly in this one as the Pies optimal game plan is but on super fitness levels and their winning run built on being 'stronger for longer' than their opponents - but they have lost that relative advantage completely, partic over us The other data that supper the theory we are really fit and close to our optimal shape is our pressure numbers in the last quarters have remained high - for example we had close to season high rating of 214 in the last quarter against the blues I don't know where the pies sit on that front, but i'll bet London to a brisk that in the last 6 weeks their pressure ratings falls away late in quarters and in the last quarter The last theirs of the Pies season looks so similar to ours last year - injuries to key players (and i'll bey we hear post season about players carrying injuries), struggling to run out games and the method looking diff On the method looking different an example is that rather than control the tempo early doors, we looked to jump the oppo last year and go out really hard and then hang on. When playing their best footy the Pies dominate the first and last quarters, which isn't happening atm The other similarity is how tough their run has been with so many taxing games late in the season And interestingly we both had big wins in the last game of the season - us against the Lions and the Pies over the Bombers I hoped against hope the Lions win was a sign we were back to our best fitness wise, but it was a mirage as we completely ran out of puff in the last quarters of both finals And in hindsight the signs were there - we scored 13 first half goals , but could only manage 5 in the second half I'm sure the Pies fans are hoping their dominant win over the bombers is a sign they are up and running, but the score line is eerily similar to ours against the lions In that game the Pies blitzed in the first half, scoring 12 goals but could only manage 4 goals in the second half
  7. Maybe Doesn't help them much but. We are number 1 for ground ball gets inside 50 and number 1or 2 for ground ball get differential The pies are worse than mid table for both stats..
  8. Out in the streets they call it merther.
  9. I haven't listened to it, but I'll have a go: Everything we've done, we've done to qualify. We've achieved that and we start again. Geez, you wouldn't want to be anywhere else than Melbourne in spring. Nick was desperate to play, and might have if this was an elimination game No, no, no reason to be anything but positive.
  10. Really good point. Maxy has less impacting the wet because he cant clunk his marks, and his ability to take contested marks around the ground is what makes him such a difference maker. But taking thta strength away just means he has less impact - he still remains a brilliant athlete who can win his own ball and of course ruck brilliantly. Cox and Cameron and average players in comparison to maxy. Neither have maxy's athleticism or ruck craft. And they won't be able to mark either - and without clunking marks both are bog ordinary players.
  11. We are a turnover team, that is true. But since when are we not a stoppage and contest team? For the season we are number: one in the AFL for average contested possessions (pies are 14th) eight for average center clearances per game (pies are 10th) seventh for stoppage clearances (pies are 11th) Those are our season numbers, and I'm pretty sure i read somewhere that we are top 2 or 3 for centre and stoppage clearances in our last 6 games, and the Pies are near the bottom of the table in both areas in the same time frame. The train hurts us becuase it negates the impact of our most impactful player - maxy. And i agree that our disposal is an issue and the wet exacerbates that issue. But i would argue the wet hurts the Pies way more than it does us. Their whole game plan is built around chaining out from contests to an outside receiver and that player executing of high risk, difficult kicks. And wet weather really impacts that model as every handball and kick is at risk of getting messed up and creating turnovers as a result. Conversely our game plan is built around getting territory, dominating time in forward half, winning inside 50 count and keeping it trapped in our front half. In other words the foundation of how to play wet weather football And wet weather means more contests and more ground balls. As evidenced by the contested possession numbers (#1 v #14) we will smash them in the contest, and as these stats suggest smash them when the ball hits the ground inside the defensive and offensive 50s: Dees are second for ground ball gets (pies are 15th) Dees are second for tackles inside 50 (pies are 16th) The blues dees game was the classic wet weather game. And the most intense, brutal game i can recall for a very long time. That's how we will play on Thursday night. Good luck to the Pies chaining up their little slick handballs trying to feed it out to a receiver or hit a target in the corridor in the wet under the sort of pressure we applied against the blues. The Pies won't know what hit them. Stats by whello: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2023
  12. That's true. And having those players in certainly improve their team, and their chances of winning. But none of those players are runners, so whilst they might win contested ball (degoey), intercept mark (howe), distribute (sidebottom) and provide a marking option up forward (Elliot and Mcstay) i don't think having them in the side will change their tactical approach - or ours. And besides we didn't have Clarry in the team. Apart from having Sidebottom and De Goey covered as a mid, Clarry's elite fitness and running power means we have another player in the team who can gut run defensively and take away the pies time, space and ability to transition the ball with speed.
  13. Agree, winning territory is key. For us scoring from turnover and a positive turnover differential is also key, as of course is winning contested ball and pressure. Those things are key in all our games. But the most critical element for us is our defence system - and by that i mean our all team defence, not just our back seven. Leaving aside the fact we want to negate the pies ability to transition fast any time we play them, there's no way we wanted to get into a fast transition game with the pies on KB because the Pies have us for pure leg speed and we were not fully wound up fitness wise (though nor were the Pies it must be said). So if i was to pick one thing we need to replicate from the KB match on Thursday night it would be our brilliant all team defence and defensive system. We worked really hard to deny them time and space. We did this by: working really hard to get players into the corridor and take that option away (and as the game wore on pick off their efforts to go thru the corridor) working really hard to cover switches compressing the ground and creating density by having our defenders push up creating frontal pressure and having players run hard at the Pies ball carrier. That latter element is critical because it gives them no space ahead of the ball carrier, making it really hard to run and carry forward (ie the way rivers has been playing in the back of the half of the season ie receive the ball, run and carry for 15-20 meters and launch, or even better hit a target in a dangerous spot). But it is a system that has to be spot on because when a player runs at the ball carrier to shut down their space, another dees player has to work hard to cover off the Pies player left free. And when they do so, space is created behind that player which also has to be covered. That is a very sophisticated, complex defensive system that requires a commitment from all players to do the defensive gut running it demands, great synergy and 100% confidence in your teammates to do their job (not to mention elite fitness). Get that wrong and the Pies just tic tac it down the ground. And that's how they carve teams up on transition, particularly any team that hasn't got their all team defensive system sorted. Our brilliant all team defence and defensive system on KB meant the Pies could never get the game looking like a 'Pies game'. It also allowed us to control the tempo of the match and frustrate the Pies because you could see they wanted to get the ball moving and we constantly stopped them from doing so. It also meant the game was very much played on our terms and in a way that played to our strengths. That is the art of coaching - negate the oppo's strengths and maximize your teams' strengths. I think there are two big difference between the KB and QF: we are now in our optimal shape and will run out the game i don't think the pies are in optimal shape and are struggling to run out games - they look so similar to us last season If i'm right the Pies running power won't be the advantage it would have been if we had played them in say round four. When at their best the Pies have blitzed teams in the first quarter with speed from the back half, set up a fast game, then idle in the second and third quarters before using their superior fitness and leg speed and drop the hammer to blitz tiring teams in the last quarter. The KB was a mild version of this approach - they were on top the first 10 mins the last 10 mins of the game. But they haven't been able to implement that method since the bye, and my theory is that is because they are running out of gas - as reflected by the fact they are no longer outscoring opponents in the last q, unlike the dees who have the best 4th quarter record in the AFL over the season and the last 6 weeks. But even though their running power is less a threat, i'm sure we will look to employ similar tactics in the fist half as we did on KB in terms of our all team defensive structure, denying them time and space and controlling the tempo. And of course we will also look to cover the receiver to stymie their efforts to chain out from stoppages and contests (eg cover Sidebottom and pendles). I say the first half, because my tip is the Pies will try do what we did late last season (i think because we knew we didn't have the run in the legs) - come out hard, play fast ball in motion footy, try to a get match winning lead and hang on for dear life. So, i could see us stymie their ability to get the game on their terms in the first half, hold through 20 mins or so of the third quarter, and then, using our fitness advantage, do what we did to such devastating effect in the 2021 finals - drop the hammer and make it a fast transition game where we start taking more risks, use the corridor more and run in waves to create free players ahead of the ball. Put the acid on the pies to go with us. Bang, bang, bang. I cant see the Pies winning if they do not have at least a three goal lead at half time as we will run out the game better and roll over them.
  14. Ms Binners jnr loved it. I went with a mate who has a young son who is dead keen on footy, but i think i'm right in saying that was the first AFLW game they had both seen. Both loved it. And i loved it - such an enjoyable vibe and atmosphere and like i said about the two finals there last year felt like a throw back in terms of going to the footy. To be clear though, i really loved the footy played, not just the 'vibe'. Ms binners take was the atmosphere was terrific, and much nicer vibe than at the men's footy. She said she loves that women fans are right into it and cheer and carry on, but it all feels so much less aggro than when blokes, including me, are yelling and screaming. The AFL is really in danger of killing the golden goose. So short sighted to see it as the AFL subsiding AFLW. In reality, over the journey, it will be AFLW that, perhaps not subsidize the AFL but protects it's future. Lets face it, Aussie rules is an indigenous game in what is really a very small market. The only way it survives over the next 50 years is continuing to grow its audience. A unique element of AFL is how many women watch it compared to say soccer in Europe. Participation not only grows the pool of elite players it also grows the audience. Every young women who plays any footy, no matter what level they get to, are going to be AFL fans for life. It has ever been thus - play footy as kid, dream of playing on the MCG in Spring, give up on those dreams and watch footy for the rest of your life. Princess park is just the perfect place for AFLW. The stand and surrounding parkland protect from the wind, the surface is like a golf fairway and the ground is a touch smaller than most. Everyone is raving about how skillful we were in the 3rd quarter. That doesn't happen in the howling wind down at Casey It's a total no brainer - invest in the infrastructure there, make it AFLW HQ and have a game there every single Friday night of the AFLW season. Make it an event vibe like last night, with a real focus on stuff for kids to do - so great to see so many kids just having a ball. Every fan knows there is game there on a Friday night, so just rock up ad know they'll see some good footy. Public transport is brilliant. The shorter quarters mean it is not such a late night for families and the vibe is really family friendly. All the Vic clubs would look forward to their turn for the Friday night special and turn up. Telecast it live on 7. Every Friday night. Make it part of the fabric of a Melbourne weekend at this time of year.
  15. Murphy is super important to their system i reckon. The Pies have a similar advantage as us over the rest of the comp. Most teams have only one elite intercept defender - but we have two in May and Lever, and Petty too when he was down back. I'm sure a big factor in Disco getting selected (and i think he'll hold his spot) is he is also an excellent interceptor. Which means that teams can't focus on shutting down the one elite intercepting defender the way they can with say Andrews at the Lions or Allir at Port. The Pies have three elite intercepting defenders - Moore, Murphy and Quaynor. Intercept in the back half is critical to our game plan, but i'd argue event more important for the Pies as their whole game plan is based on fast transition from the back half, and that method is reliant on intercepts. Moore is coming back from a hammy, so at the very least he would have been off legs for a bit so his running power might be off. If Quaynor plays on Koz, as he has done the last couple of times we've played them, Koz might play out of the square as he did last week, which negates the impact of any intercepts by Quaynor (becuase they are not up on the half back flank). Which means Murphy becomes even more important to them. Fingers crossed he is a non starter.
  16. Tell the pies tragic that that may be the story the pies are leaking out to the nuffies. But the real reason they picked the Thursday night (which i think is true actually) is they know they are going to get beaten and are desperate to get as much time as possible between the loss and the semi final against the blues - which will surely be Friday week.
  17. I saw Campbell is our first father daughter selection. Do you know who the father is?
  18. I'm going with my daughter. The first time we have gone to a footy match together for over 10 years. She hasn't been to an AFLW game and has no interest in the AFL. Interestingly though she really got into the Women's work cup and went to the fans sites multiple times. Is going to join Melb city women's team as a member such is her new found enthusiasm for soccer. I say interestingly because when i asked if she wanted to come with me to watch the dees AFLW game tomorrow night i was really surprised when she said yes, and is really keen. I couldn't get her to a game, men's or women's, last season and i have no doubt the experience of being at AAMI park to watch the Matildas is why she is keen to go to a footy match.
  19. I don't think he has less intensity, but I take your point - Josh is not naturally super competitive but he still works really hard But despite us being desperate for a forward option Josh has only been able to play two senior games tgis season. I suspect resigning him is about ensuring we can replicate the one's structure at Casey.
  20. I agree he is super talented. He is a natural forward who as you suggest is a good second ruck option. And that is exactly the sort of player we need. But i reckon his lack of intensity rules him out from any team goody coaches. No coincidence he's keen to leave the Suns. I suspect he left the Tigers because Hardwick is like Goody in that he values intensity and attack on the ball over all else. And who is coaching the Suns next year? Hardwick.
  21. That's a great call. Assuming Quaynor goes to Koz, in addition to perhaps challenging him defensively, playing Koz out of the square also negates the offensive impact of Qualynor, who loves to intercept and bounce of half back (which is even more crucial with no Nick Daicos) and means Koz is always close to goal and a chance of scoring. I suspect Goody actually wants koz to fly for pack marks rather than stay down. He has been doing it all season and would have stopped doing so if Goody told him to. Playing out of the square means Koz can continue to fly for pack marks and crunch the oppo defenders. Might even take a speccy for the ages too at some point!
  22. Yes, but only because they were fighting for a spot in the team. When nibbler missed his only game, Bedford took his role. Bedford is 100% playing the high half forward role that nibbler and spargo (and now laurie) play In soccer vernacular, box to box gut running at speed all game. I have heard several gws players, mutiple media people (eg Daniel hoyne and gerard healy) explicity say that bedford was specifically recruited to play the high half forward role and that that is the role he has played all season - to a very high standard I might add.
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