binman

I was thinking a character in the Dukes of Hazard.

Luxury, sheer luxury.

Spot on. After the finals, trade period, draft, xmas break and a full preseason, by round one next year the players will barely remember all this silliness. Ditto fans. The young blokes will have forgotten about it already.

I posted this in the koz thread, but it fits better here (Note: I don't think the media has it in for us per se. The media is interested in drama. All footy clubs are rife with drama. But some clubs are better than others at keeping it in house - in large part because of really good comms management. We're not one them BUT I do think the smaller clubs, of which unfortunately the dees are one, do cop it more than the big clubs. Does a media ghoul really want to get on the wrong side of say the pies, if the result is reduced access to their players and chuckles mcrae? Wheras they could care less about angering the dees, dogs or the roos. And I'd also note there is a correlation between these two factors - even with the soft cap, bigger clubs can afford to spend more on comms. I recall Peter Jackson saying he would prioritise using resources for the footy department ahead of things like comms because winning games was the priority) Media: Demons in CRISIS!!!!!! Players left right and centre want our of the club!!!!! Peteacca, ANB (quick release that info) and Kozzie all want out !!!!!!! Reality: Petracca stays. Koz stays. Nibbla goes, but is at pains to say how much he loves his teamates and the MFC. And mutiple players (including several future stars who didnt need to extend now, a respected senior player and our skipper) recommit in the last two to three months. Reality: Three of the Tigers five best players want out - Bolton, Baker and Rioli. And all three will almost certainly leave. Even in the context of tbe rigers being in rebuild mode, that’s huge -particularly given all three are at the peak of their powers (unlike say tracc, who is pushing 30 and returning after a very serious injury). Imagine if at the start of goody's tenure tracc, oliver and Max all left the club And losing two senior Aboriginal players can't help in terms of support for young Aboriginal recruits, or trading in Aboriginal players for that matter. Media:

Media: Demons in CRISIS!!!!!! Players left right and centre want our of the club!!!!! Peteacca, ANB (quick release that info) and Kozzie all want out !!!!!!! Reality: Petracca stays. Koz stays. Nibbla goes, but is at pains to say how much he loves his teamates and the MFC. And mutiple players (including several future stars who didnt need to extend now, a respected senior player and our skipper) recommit in the last two to three months. Reality: Three of the Tigers five best players want out - Bolton, Baker and Rioli. And all three will almost certainly leave. Even in the context of tbe rigers being in rebuild mode, that’s huge -particularly given all three are young. Imagine if at the start of goody's tenure tracc, oliver and Max all left the club And losing two senior Aboriginal players can't help in terms of support for young Aboriginal recruits, or trading in Aboriginal players for that matter. Media:

Yep, so thrilled. Pro scouts? Is it a Netflix series?

And he's got the habit, like the bont and many left footers (i think because opponents instinctivly cover the right side), of wheeling onto his left foot and kicking off no steps. I love that - gets the ball moving quickly and the ball is kicked under less pressure.

At first I thought that was a lowlights package But then I realised it must be all Langdord's involvements in that particular vfl game. It's actually good to see a more balanced video package. Also good that its at vfl level sometimes the guns dominate at junior level.

In America I reckon moving for college is a big factor in people's preparedness to move cities and states. That and historically labor has followed industry - for example black families leaving the south for work in Chicago, LA and Detroit. And housing costs have historically been stable and affordable, which reduces barriers to moving. That's changing, with America now experiencing a housing crisis of the sort ours kicked of 25 years ago. Interestingly, i read an article the other day that said Americans are now moving less than at any time in history.

And how will the pies respond to failing to make finals this year? More fire breathing? What happens to the lions this year if they once again fail to win a flag? What about powerhouse clubs like the crows and the Eagles? Resources coming our their wazoo and they have been mired in the bottom half of the ladder for years - incredible since the crows played in a GF in 2017 and the Eagles won one in 2018. We won a flag the year after we last missed finals - something that can't have happened too often in VFL/AFL history. Surely to Goodwin we get some credit for doing so in terms of clear evidence of our ability to bounce back after a poor season. Or do we just ignore history and parrot and ampifly the media's doom cycle, club in crisis narrative?

The flag and a norm smith to tracc double is a massive long shot. Our odds on winning a flag will probably be something like 20-1. Tracc winning the norm smith propaganda 25-1 or more (hence the 500-1). It's tough to win a flag, a lot has to go right - just ask the pies who failed to make finals the year after winning one. 500-1 is not a million miles from what you'd get for a pies flag nick daicos norm smith double. But what I actually meant was it is even money the following would happen (not that you could bet on it): Dees have a cracking preseason. The Max, Jack, tracc and clarry band gets back together. The young Turks (JVR, mcvee, Windsor, Kolt, disco and pick 5) make their own music. I see no reason why the above won't happen. But to be honest you are reading way too much into what was a light-hearted post not a serious prediction. A serious prediction - we will make finals next year.

And an 11am start next week. No doubt it's something to do with not clashing with the afl finals, but at an 11am start? Poor.

Yes I agree, which is why i said it could all be boiled down to: 'Star player unhappy with how injury managed and concerned premiership wondow is shut wants to get to a more successful Victorian club.' But what i should have said was Star player unhappy with how injury managed and concerned premiership wondow is shut wants to get to a more successful Victorian club, but can't because there's no suitors

'Previous culture issues.' An important part of the story one would have thought.

I'm a punter. I look for value. What's a redlegs membership go for? Let's say $250. And for the sake of argument, let's say the GF ticket is also $250. So, I'm risking $250 to win $250 - an even money bet. When a market goes up post GF for next year's GF I could probably get 500-1, perhaps more, for a dees' flag into tracc winning the Norm Smith Multi. If i staked $250 and the dees tracc double got up, at 500-1 my return would be $125k. If i took your offer, and won, my profit would be $500 - a fair bit less than $125k. Not a great value bet then. Well and truly unders. So, thanks for the offer, but I'll pass on the bet (though I might take the 500s with a bookie). But im looking forward to the redemption part of the narrative arc regardless.

Well, you clearly don't believe in the footy gods. Or Lady luck. I've had a word with both and they agree we're due some luck.

There's few players who are Gulden good. If not elite, the key is any player we draft in has to be at least reliable by foot. And trade in for that matter.

Define me being right.

I did indeed. Is there something wrong with being optimistic? As a betting man, I'd give us better than even money of the things I noted occurring (well, not the flag, neom smith double - the rest) And why not? The club is not in crisis, whatever the media would like people to believe. Mutiple key players have resigned, including our four best young guns (jvr, winsdsor, mcvee and kolt) our best player is suiting up next year and we don't have players like melk with long term injuries. West Coast Eagles- the wealthiest club in the AFL with a 20k wait list to be a member - is in crisis. They just sacked their coach and can't find another one. Have been down the bottom for 6 years and a flag looks minimum 5 years away. It will come down to luck as much as anything. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong this year. We're due some good luck and if it comes in the next 12 months we'll be back playing finals this time next year.

All good points. But personally I could care less what he says in a media statement- now or in the future. I didn't, and don't, expect him to come out and pledge undying loyalty to the dees or talk about how much he loves the club and fans. And I'm not particularly annoyed with him either - merde happens. Im just glad hes staying. Rehab, train hard over the preseason and play great footy. That will do me just fine.

Which of those is the best kick Gator?

Sure, though pick 5 is a good start. Am I right to say we haven't traded our second round pick? If not we'll have a mid twenty draft pick which might add a future best 22 player if we get it right. After that tge draft is a lottery. So we'll need to trade in at least two best 22 players. That's a tall order, but with nibbla's, Gus BBB and smiths salary off the books, we'll have some room in our salary cap to be a meaningful player in trade season.

The story writes itself: Dees have a cracking preseason. The Max, Jack, tracc and clarry band gets back together. The young Turks (JVR, mcvee, Windsor, Kolt, disco and pick 5) make their own music. The dees win the flag. Tracc wins the Norm Smith. Redemption reigns. Traccs 'reach' goes nuclear.

I think it is a reflection of just how tough footy is anaerobicly now and how critical a good preseason is. Non finalists have essentially an extra six weeks of recovery for players and time to get surgeries done, which sets up things for a good preseason. No coincidence that we missed finals in the year before winning the flag. And no surprise to see the cats top 4 the year after failing to make finals after winning a flag in 2022.

More the point, as you say this time next year he will be just about to turn 30. Seriously, what contender, even in the unlikely event they have space in their cap to pay a new player 1.2 million a year, would use that space to trade in a bloke at the back end of his career? It would completely unbalance their salary cap. Have people forgotten that the pies only recently had to off load an AA ruck and gun mid, not to mention pay part of their salary, because their contracts were too high. And given tracc would still be contracted, what contender would give up the sort of draft picks and/or young guns they would need to offer up to satisfy the dees to land tracc. The pies and blues would only consider spending that sort of capital on a Harley Reid, JHF or Darcy. I mean, how would dees fans feel about us giving up our pick 5 and a couple of young players like Turner and Mcvee to bring in say Lachie Neale or the bont on a million bucks a year? Talk in the media comparing the tracc scenario to Judd's is just ridiculous. Yes Judd, like tracc, was a superstar. But judd was 23 when he left the Eagles after 5 seasons and ended up playing 7 for the blues. And another difference, a critical one, was the deal was all bit done when the rumours commenced. It doesn't sound like there were any serious conversations between teacc and say the pies. A better comparison would be ablett going back to the cats. Ablett was 33, but still playing good football and would have been on much better coin at the suns if he stayed than what the cats were prepared to pay him.