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Everything posted by binman

  1. In season, runnnig hard to a elite level for seven months. I like journo Andrew Stafford's analogy of the demands on players in season as running a half marathon every game for seven months. That's aprox 20km, which is more than they run in a game (the most would be aprox 16km and the average 10-11?). So perhaps a better analogy would be a 10,000 metre race every game for seven months. Imagine running a 10k race once a week for 7 months with the aim of achieving a significant PB in the last week. Add getting tackled, bumped etc every week and dealing with niggles and injuries. Then add variable breaks between your weekly 10k and different conditions (eg humid, cold, wet, different surfaces etc). Add interstate flights and having to stay in random hotels (ie not in your home and bed) and constantly needing to adjust your routines. Hard gig for an individual. Multiply that by 44 and you get a sense of the complexities of AFL clubs' high performance programs. And for all the incredible planning the high performance programs involve how difficult it would be to get it right. It's fascinating the different approaches clubs use. The cats regularly managed players in the 2022, 2023 and again this year. Burgess never did, nor Selwyn in 2022. They flagged they would do more of it in 2023, but never really did. And we haven't done so this year, with the possible exception of how they are managing bbb - which I suspect is more about managing his chronic knee issue than management of fatigue. Given how critical the high performance programs' of clubs are, it's high time the media included it their analysis. How many people could name more than say 2 or 3 high performance managers?
  2. And that wasn't even the stupidest thing. Rozee slightly hyper extended his leg, in much the same way as he did to hurt it the previous week (a weird action I've not seen before in terms of a hammy injury - is that a common way to hurt a hammy @Webber?) Was clearly limping. Went to the bench for 9 minutes or some such. AND CAME BACK ON, before getting subbed off a short time after. Hinkley said he erred selecting him, but was adamant there was no risk of further damage by putting him back out on the field. He may well be right, but if you think it was a unnecessary risk picking him, why double down and risk putting him back on?
  3. #classic Demonland. Defence works 999,999 times. It's doesn't work on the millionth occasion and it's all doom and gloom .
  4. No problems @Blistering. A son of Blistering has to be super quick, so he's got one key attribute nailed down. The other thing I'd add is I reckon a key metric for the HHF role is score involvements because they are so often links in scoring chains.
  5. JVR is number 25 with 6.74. Hore then Howes, who is on 6.6. Jacob Weher is their 25th rated player on 6.5, riccarrdi and Adam Kennedy.
  6. It's subjective isn't it. Everybody seems to love the giants. Me too. Consensus seems to be they have a good list. This is their top 12 rated players in the last 20 matches:
  7. Our way. We bet into a shared bank.
  8. This was my mates reply: I like them, but not quite as confident, $ Crows +5.5.
  9. Go crowbots. At the risk of going the early crow, this was the message I sent my mate I punt with beforethe game: 'I am really bullish about the crows to make their line. In fact, I think they'll win. Showdowns are like finals. Which always evens things up and means a hard contested game. Which I think suits the crows. But the main reason is port's injuries. Key players out in alir and Powell Pepper. And rozee is surely ginger.'
  10. I largely disagree, but really like this post and think you make a strong case. Im not suggesting you are soing so tu, but i think there is a tendency for fans to over rate other teams lists. All lists drop away after the top 10-12, which is one reason why I a worried about the impact of the tassie team. The talent pool is too thin already, particularly given AFL footballers noe need to be bloody good at footy AND elite athletes. I take your point about forwards lined but few teams have actually scored that much more than us under Goody. And there's also an argument that the need for mutiple gun forwards is overated. The cats are a bit of an outlier in that regard arguably going all the way back to the dogs in 2016.
  11. The first time I've got selection right since about mid last year!
  12. @Blistering can't quite tell if this is a wind up. But I'll assume not and play with a straight bat. The high half forward (HHF) role has become one of the most important in AFL football. Daniel Hoyne from champion data said many times last season that the key reason for the blues' turnaround was sorting the HFF role. Cotteral for example has become super important to them. That's because the HFF role is key to the transition game and turning turnovers into scores and defending turnovers. To excel in the HHF role a player needs to be an elite athlete with a huge tank who can cover ground quickly. Similar to the role langers plays as a winger, it Involves gut running from box to box, in soccer parlance. In footy it's forward pocket to back pocket all game providing defensive cover in defence as part of an all team zone defensive system. The defensive cover includes direct defensive actions in rhe opponents forward half (ie helping our defence) like spoiling, smothers and tackles. And indirect defensive actions like blocking switch options or sprinting to a mark to stop a player immediately playing on. The HFF does those same defensive actions when the ball is in our forward half - with the indirect actions being critical in terms of making it harder to transition the ball from their back half. When we transition the ball from our back half the HFF gut runs to get ahead of the ball to either spread the opposition (ie an opponent has to run and cover him) or be an option to kick to. The latter includes being a target inside 50. And of course in addition to all of that, snag the occasional crumbing or stoppage goal. Some HHFs might be more forward orientated and play a bit closer to goal. Chandler is a good example. Others might have assists as a kpi and be one of the players teams want kicking inside 50 (though all will be expected to hit up leading targets). Miers is a good example. The best HFF in the AFL? Nibbla hands down. Don't believe me? Have a listen to Andy's brilliant interview with Kade Chandler. From 13.17 in the player at the top of this page Kade discusses the small forward role (but is referring to the HHF role). He defines it much more succinctly than I just have and pumps up nibbla as the HHF exemplar.
  13. I'm going to assume if he picks the dees he is certain to be a gun who will play 200 plus games fir the MFC. And if he picks the suns he is over rated, and whilst a good average player who carves out a decent AFL career we use the draft pick to instead unearth another Taylor diamond in the rough who becomes an all time great of the club. It's a win win.
  14. If he had the right attitude at Gold Coast? May was famously competitive and an obvious leader. Which is why Gold Coast made him co captain at 25 , and why he was an absolute gun player in.huge demand before coming to the dees. Rance and Scarlett are unarguably both legends. 5 and 6 x AA respectively. Premiership player x 1 and x 3 respectively. But May is 100% on track to be considered in the same league as both. If he plays two more seasons after this year he'll get close to 300 games. He's a two time AA, and a real chance of adding a third this year. And of course he is also a premiership player, who famously played with a hammy tear that normally would be a minimum 3 week injury.
  15. Hunter in was my thought too, for the same reason ie strong, seasoned player. I was thinking Windsor might he sub. But I think you make an excellent point about our need for speed - generally, but particularly against the cats who are both quick and also play a back half, transition game. And Windsor out, Hunter in is a bad combo in terms of leg speed. So, I'm changing my prediction to no change.
  16. For just one the one flag? Can you clarify what you mean. I might be well be misinterpreting you, but you seem to be implying port underachieved. And i get the sense that you are also implying that having an incredible defence is not that significant in terms of our Premiership chances. Again, i may well have the wrong end of the stick, but if not yoy might want to come up work a better example- Lyon's first stint at the saints perhaps. Because in the three seasons you note Port WON one flag. In 170 seasons the dees have won 13 flags. That averages out to aprox a flag every 13 years. Call me crazy, but I suspect most teams would be pretty happy with a flag every three years.
  17. They are simply amazing stats. Add the fact that since the start of the 2021 season we have only given up 100 points three times (next best 9) and you get a great sense of how remarkably effective our defence is. And how central defence is to goody's coaching philosophy. I wonder if there has EVER been a more effective defence over any four season block? It's worth noting too that Daniel hoyne, in discussing our new method at the start of the season warned dees fans we are likely going to give up more goals this season ('you've got to give up something to get something' ie a more expansive, turnover based game will open us for goals the other way). Hoyne might still be proved correct, but not on the evidence of the 7 games so far.
  18. Agree. Which is why mcvee is such an important player (who i somehow forgot to highlight) for us. And why Coleman is such a massive out for the lions. In fact given their challenges moving the ball from their back half, an argument could be made Coleman's injury is the most impactful LTI of any club.
  19. No I reckon that's about right (though statistically tmac actually has a case). Buts for both us and the pies that's 4-5 elite kicks is not 2-3.
  20. Mmm, maybe. With only 2-3 elite kicks I think teams then can't carry too many butchers (every team had some) for the turnover game to work. And in that scenario teams can focus on blanketing the 2-3 elite kicks Look at the hawks. They have 2-3 elite kicks but still contually turn the ball over on transition. By the by i reckon if tracc was a better kick, he'd be the best plsyer in the AFL by some margin.
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