Little Goffy

I woke up this morning with the simple thought of 'one law for all'. And also reflecting on the fact that despite numerous writs out regarding the defamation of Trent Croad, the Age still went for another, very aggressive, round of malicious gossip about him. They are getting reckless and legally running towards cliffs.

I would enjoy seeing the club come out with a copy of the ridiculous report, with sections highlighted in red for 'total rubbish' (like the claim that not playing Watts more was suspicious) through yellow for 'not really relevant / not really evidence' and finally blue for 'shows evidence of behaviour inconsistent with the common pattern of player management by teams having very poor years'. How much blue do you really think there would be?

Somebody's eyes are failing, that's for sure. Yours or the author's? Meanwhile, it just goes to show that to build a successful culture you have to recruit from successful clubs... erm...

Personally, I'm with the Zulus, the desperate effort of an army with limited weapons and just their mad courage, trying to overcome a ruthless and treaty-breaking attempt to subjugate them by a foreign power well-resourced, established in a fortified position and wielding fast firing lethal weapons with skill and efficiency born of decades of similar conflict while subjugating an empire that spanned the earth... Can't be be the Rats of Tobruk, instead?

Hmmm... I would assume the AFL would choose to blame the 'handful of miscreants' in this case, rather than interrupt the TV money. So... proposal one - Club gets a whacking great fine, loses draft picks, and all players may choose to declare themselves free agents at end of year. Result? - see also Carlton 2002...

Fremantle will be desperate to find a replacement for Pavlich within a couple of years, makes sense that they would try for Franklin. Fremantle will be desperate to find a replacement for Sandilands within a couple of years, too... Fremantle will just be desperate, within a couple of years. I'm not a fan of trying to build a team around a handful of stars. It hasn't worked for Freo, hasn't worked for Carlton, hasn't worked for Richmond. I'm still quite firmly convinced that the best use of trade and free agency is to bring in 'solid citizen' players who fill needs and will provide a reliable, AFL quality training and playing level. As Collingwood and Hawthorn have both shown, you get success by bringing in additional quality players at the right moment, to fill the gaps after you first recruit your best talent by [not tanking].

lol... took one post before a 'Schwab has to go' comment. Man with maybe the second toughest business-side job in AFL (after Port CEO), gets trolled all day, can't say I envy him.

To get the topic back on track - I hear Meat Loaf is actually now the new primary target for investigation. I think this thread needs closing. Or merging with all the other 'I forget what we were talking about but YOU SUCK' threads,

Everything fundamental to the integrity of the game has been allowed to carry on under it's own inertia for a decade. Major initiatives and policies have been introduced or managed without proper preparation and a shocking lack of forethought. Problems which should have been hit hard and resolved, like the stadium deals and club inequality, have been allowed to fester. Free agency has been a fiasco. The new clubs have been a fiasco. An executive's job is supposed to be about strategy, and concentrating on significant issues. Instead Mr Demetriou follows the issue of the moment, whatever happens in the spotlight - did we really need a multimillion dollar CEO to take the time to tell off Callan Ward's mum for say that the pressure on her son was unpleasant? Actually, the 'Callan Ward's mum' piece of idiocy just sums up the whole Demetriou tenure - create a farcical and embarrassing situation, the get your loudspeaker out to shout down anyone, anyone at all, who suggests that things are not quite ok.

Meanwhile, actually the most urgent matter in this is that some players may just be facing an incredibly harsh reality. They may be guilty of agreeing to take performance enhancing drugs, however idiotically their signature was extracted. They might be about to see their reputation and career destroyed, and all their past achievements wiped from the board. Not just in the public eye, but in their own - they will never know whether they 'really' were an AFL standard player. They might not be able to earn an income from their profession, for up to two years. Gotta feel for the dumb 22 year old who was just trying to make a good impression and saying yes to whatever he was told.

Well, Wilson has come out soft on Essendon, that's for sure. Her article reads like Essendon are the victims of a clique within, that the senior people were so foolish to trust completely. She's picked her targets - a handful of disparagingly titled 'Phys-edders'. Which is both denigrating to the elite sports science individuals allegedly involved, and to the profession of Physical Education, much like calling someone a 'retard' is denigrating to mentally disabled people.

lol, now we know why they couldn't land at Wangaratta last pre-season... Too high... (NB: I really hope this is a misunderstanding, that a couple of guys have been seriously dodgy but not engaged in true cheating. The damage to the AFL and the damage to any club is simply not worth it for all the snarky jokes in the world. On the other hand, a part of me can't help but think, if this was Melbourne, we would die as a club, but if it is a 'power club'... well...)

Really good interview on the MFC site, the character he is known for comes through. Full respect to Clint. Best of luck with the future, happy he made it to at least the good respectable 100 games line.

I think a fundamental difference is that many of our mature players on the last few years have merely been struggling on or fluctuating in form, rather than solidly contributing year after year after year. And I don't just mean in comparison to Matthew Pavlich or Adam Goodes, I mean the stalwarts who keep producing solid, 'best 22' games year in year out and are consistently in the mix for B&F placings. I'm hoping that guys like Nathan Jones, Mitch Clark, James Frawley and of course the captains can be the beginning of that kind of core group of professional, consistent, high-performing players who keep a club competitive through the twists of AFL seasons. Personally I think it takes at least half the players in the best 22 to be of that standard before you can seriously expect to contend at the very top levels.

And drove there in a tank. And they started the day by just drinking tank water, but is was off, so they hit the chardonnay and got totally tanked. When someone finally ordered them a taxi, they were so out of it they slurred their words, and just kept saying 'tank you'. Ahh... this is one to keep in the vault.

Starting to get the feeling that the terms of reference for the investigation are implicitly 'keep going until you find something'. But the actual case for an organised rorting of the system, outsde the spirit of usual 'we're cooked, next year's preseason starts now' routine, seems to be getting weaker and weaker. I really do hope this blows up in Caroline Wilson's face, I'd hate to see such excessive aggression be rewarded, especially in a media figure.

I'm completely convinced that early in the draft you go for the player that gives you most confidence of their enduring AFL presence. The kind of unfaltering 200 gamers that keep you forever competitive, or sometimes become fundamental to a team - anything from Nathan Jones to Lenny Hayes for me. Late in that draft I think is the place to go for 'super-talented but uncertain if translatable to AFL' player. If then talented kid doesn't make it, you can know fairly quickly. Let's say three years... so by the time the reliable 200-gamer is finished, you'll have had four chances at giving a 'special kid' a run with a late pick. The other factor is, the more 'complete' your team is, the more risk you can accept with earlier draft picks. While this trade period brought us a few big strides closer to being a functional list, we are still a fair way off being complete.

Very promising early in his career after being taken by Brisbane in the rookie draft - enough to prompt the traditional cringe of 'another Melbourne supporter we missed'. Injury plagued, hasn't had consecutive 'clear' seasons in many years, but is a solid worker and I would say a better prospect that the typical very late pick. Certainly a more mature body, obviously. Would he be more than depth? Hard to say. Would he be really useful depth? Very likely.

Wilson's vitriolic attacks on the club are so over-the-top that they seriously harm the tone of discussion, creating a block to measured response. She has created an implicity threatening environment by allusions to the crimes of the Melbourne Football Club being so outrageous that a taint will fall upon anyone defending the club or seeking deliberation which also considers the behaviour of several other clubs prior to and since then. Interestingly, the 'chatter' on this is slipping to the point where only Wilson, Jeff Kennett and Demetriou seem to still be bent on the pound of flesh from the Demons. The Herald is swinging both ways, while Patrick Smith, and Wilson's colleague Denham, Flanagan and Niall have all given more measured opinions, each hinting at the hypocrisy of targetting Melbourne alone, and even going so far as to suggest that the fish is rotting from the head at AFL HQ. Interesting times.

Hawthorn in 2005, also a very quick survey Rnd 6, vs Carlton, Hawthorn lead all game, with a three goal margin at 3/4 time; 10.8.68 to 7.8.50. In the final quarter, Hawthorn kick 2.3 to Carlton's 6.3, Hawthorn lose by one goal. Remembering again, this is 2005 Carlton. Rnd 21, vs Richmond, ahead by a couple of goals in a high-scoring game, 17.5.107 to Richmond's 14.11.95, Hawthorn managed 4.2 to Richmond's 6.6, losing by one goal despite Richmond's woeful kicking late in the game.

Collingwood in 2005, based on a quick scan of possible 'dodgy' games. Rnd 8, vs Richmond, at 3/4 time Collingwood are up by 10 points, 7.8.50 to Richmond 5.10.40. In the final quarter, Collingwood kick 1 goal 2 behinds, to Richmonds remarkable 8.5. Collingwood lose by 35. Rnd 18, vs Fremantle, just coasting along nicely to be behind by about the same amount every quarter, lose by two goals, 85 - 98. Rnd 19, vs North Melbourne, ahead by two goals at 3/4 time, North kick 7.4 to 'Pies 4.3 in the last, Pies lose by one goal, 98 - 104. Rnd 20, vs Carlton, game relatively even until 3rd, when Carlton blow it out to a seven goal difference. Collingwood surprise by regaining considerable ground in the last, then Carlton blow it back out again. This is Carlton '2005 version' we are talking about. Game notable for Buckley being extensively 'rested' in the forward pocket during the period that Collingwood were looking like getting back in the game. After 4 wins at the halfway point of the season, including a midseason rally defeating top 4 team West Coast and top 8 team Geelong, the Collingwood Magpies go on to record just one more win, rounding out the season with 8 consecutive losses.

A couple of minutes' work, be forgiving. https://twitter.com/LittleGoffy/status/264565400103174144/photo/1/large

Todd Viney... oh wait.

Ok, this is all pissing me off so much I'm going to get my 'analysis' hat on and dig into this. I've already done a first layer - built myself a table of 'wins by season' since 2000. Based on sudden returns up the ladder, or on very temporary 'dips', particular years of interest include - Carlton 2007 Collingwood 2005 Essendon 2006 Hawthorn 2005, possibly also 2004 Melbourne 2003 and 2009. Richmond 2007 West Coast, 2001, 2008 and 2010. Western Bulldogs 2004 Also of note, St. Kilda, Melbourne and Richmond are the only clubs ever to have won one more game in a season than the cut-off for a priority pick (i.e >5 wins prior to 2006 changes, >4 wins 2006-2011). What are the chances of that... well... lets look at the distribution. This chart clearly shows a generalised pattern of 'tanking' in the Australian Football League over a twelve year period.

Acceptable. Neither exciting nor disappointing. Good on 'em.