Little Goffy

Bases on this, I'm tipping a big win.

I'm glad I saw your comment, because I'd written it off and just flicked it on in time to catch the Butler and Bolton goals and for the first time this season outside watching Demons a game is holding my attention!

I just realised that today's games are like some kind of special championship event featuring all the teams where the only thing I care about is the particularly disliked teams losing! I checked the season guide and sure enough, the AFL have this marked in as 'shaudenfreude round'.

Starting to look like Charlie Dixon is the standout tall forward of the season, and by a significant margin. Although, horrifyingly, Ben King might be his main rival at present. Come on T.Mac, come on Weid, there's a loose All-Australian spot up for grabs for any tall forward who actually kicks goals this year!

Definitely should show interest just to annoy Essendon and put pressure on their salary cap. Funny that we have two ex-Essendon players but neither could actually tell us about him from personal contact, but we also have two ex-Suns (incl an ex-co-captain Sun) who might know him a bit. My level of interest in Saad will be entirely determined by how our little collection of smaller defender options make progress this year, although many of them are still listed on stats sites as forwards, it will be interesting to see how this season's experiments turn out. Other than that, a lot depends on salary caps, playing numbers, and the wild swirl of chaos we are all engulfed in at present.

Ironically, he would probably be much more valuable on-field now than he was back in his playing time. He was never a true 'target' forward close to goals and whenever he found his best form it was as a long-leading link player, going into the wider spaces out from half-forward. With the increased 'tightness' of defense due to shorter quarters and fresher legs, the key forward targets are getting fewer opportunities to be one-on-one or find a space to lead into anywhere within 50m of goal, so a lot of the tall forwards this season are doing their best work by providing a steady point across half-forward or even further away, allowing the attack to calm itself and lower its eyes (in a double-sense) to pick out the shorter forwards who just keep running around until the defense gets dizzy. But, as noted, Miller has hid head screwed on in that astonishing way where being close to your kids is a top priority in life. Damn these new-age rubbish attitudes, eh?

At some point a couple of teams will get their heads straight and rise a whole level above the rest. Then we'll be watching 10-goal drubbings which are really 100+ point smashings, and just counting down the season to see which one sustains it through the finals. On the bright side, with so much of the results being even more between the ears than usual, it is possible for just about any team to suddenly start running hot and becoming a late contender.

5 season, or a bad haircut. Proven time and time again. Is Weideman prepared to really commit to his football career?

If Sydney brings that first quarter and we bring our first quarter, we'll stomp them next week. Stomp stomp stomp. Football would be fun again. I wonder, maybe we're secretly the hipster club? We smashed Adelaide to dust before everyone else started doing it, and maybe now we will smash Sydney to dust before it becomes fashionable, too. I'm just enjoying fantasy land over here, never mind me.

I'm feeling kind of chuffed that supporters of another team know our team so well ?

You've got no issue with people pointing out a poor free kick, but heaven forbid anyone boo the umpires when the tally is 23-7?

Our positions lines are already mixed even when they aren't. And I mean that in the optimistic sense that we have a lot of players who could be shifted around a pinch.

I'm beginning to agree with Ricciuto on one point, we are paying too much to Lever. Really, he should be paying us for the opportunity to NOT play for Adelaide. Then again, it would appear that Ricciuto himself is right this moment paying a whole lot of people to not play for Adelaide up at Metricon.

It's interesting to note that the 2017 draft really dropped away after the first eight or so picks, with just a scattered pattern of talent after that. By the time you're out of the single-digit pics, the top talents are Kelly (24) Ryan (26) and Fritsch (31) and Worpel (45) Similar story in 2018 - From Liam Stocker on there is a serious drought of games played so far. The next four in the draft are yet to debut and the next 50 combined have played about that many games in total, with the exception of a little run from pick 54 to 56, which includes our very own Marty Hore. It is possible that Jason Taylor is a genius who simply noted 'actually, that pick isn't worth a whole lot' and put it on the table!

Seriously? Their first thought was to make sure TV went along okay? I'd be livid if I was one of the clubs told to reschedule their day within 24hrs of the start of the match. Wait... I'm already livid.

Don't be a jerk, there's literally nil chance he was there. I think the rallies were irresponsible, but they are also NOT the reason for the slowed lifting of restrictions - that relates primarily to hotel security staff not been given proper equipment and training for safety. So, unless you also wish to claim McKenna has been hanging out with hotel security contract managers, pull your head in on that one, eh? My focus is on Essendon letting him rejoin the main group while holding an 'ambiguous' test result. Not that Essendon have ever done great with the 'ambigious' medical scenarios.

I can't find live broadcast of the press conference up here in NSW, anyone got a link?

Personally, I'm willing to give Tom McDonald a couple more rounds to see if he can find his true self. There's the full variety of types of tall defender to match up on by the time you get through Essendon, Geelong and the Swans. None are a walk in the part (although the Swans don't seem to have the veteran height of the other two) but if by the end of that set McDonald isn't performing strong, not just adequately, then he should spend at least that amount of time off AFL level to rediscover form and/or take a good hard look at himself. So, short version, I'm in the 'give every realistic chance, but then seriously hold to account' group.

Might be a case of kicking to whoever is NOT near Hooker/Hurley. An interesting team rule. And whoever IS being marked by them can just go for a run. It's a bit like sharking the opposition ruck when you know they will win the taps!

The only way this thread could have become more chaotic would be if Jackson was dropped AND Weid wasn't brought in... oh... wait... For what it is worth, I do see a case for the 'taste' given to a very new player, so they have an idea of what is really expected at the level. Plus sometimes the kid responds to that environment and surges. But it has to be done carefully. Not sure I'd want LJ to spend a game being hammered around by a tag-team of Hurley and Hooker, for example. Who knows, maybe it was also decided that bringing in Weid with the certainty of being against one of those guys in his first game back would be unlikely to do much for his confidence, and that's why we decided to go for the magic kaleidoscope of medium forwards this week, just to see if we can mess with their system. Fingers crossed McDonald is up to the job this week. But hey, the guy has earned earned six brownlow votes and kicked 12 goals in his last five games, two of which he was the decisive matchwinner, so can't be ALL bad. (But don't look at how he went in round three against the Bombers last year) Is there anyone thinking about this set of problems who DOESN'T have a headache?

It'll be interesting to see if Essendon has the wisdom and humility to just accept that Bellchambers is so entirely outclassed in the ruck (as well as his usual being out-competed around the ground) that they should focus on sharking off Gawn. It actually makes it a curiosity to select Bellchambers at all, "We're playing on the assumption that this guy will be beaten all day, but he's in anyway." Heppell is now out, person to person with the exception of Viney our main midfielders now stand a full 5-10cm higher than the Bombers. Vanderberg in... Hannan in... Except for our FF line vs their FB line the height difference across the ground is astonishing.

I have to admit I've got some serious nerves about the sheer number of Essendons pacy shorties. But in the middle, with Petracca and Oliver being both taller and stronger, the only piece missing there is Viney playing a brutal game. 'Picking one someone your own size' isn't really a fair thing to say when Viney is involved. I'm wondering, with Heppell being their only tall true midfielder, would there be value in putting Brayshaw onto him as a tag. Compel Angus to work defensively to limit their most dangerous mid, and also draw him to the ball to hopefully pick up some touches. It will be strange seeing Hurley and Hooker at one end with Tom Mcdonald being their only full-time tall opponent, and May and Lever at the other end with only McKernan. It'll be a fascinating battle of the mid-sized forwards against taller defenders. In fact, strangely enough we've got +5cm on Essendon pretty much everywhere on the ground except their tall defenders against our mixed forwards. Maybe we should just drop the game plan and go one-to-one all around the ground play a giant session of kick-to-kick? Finishing the height theme - if anyone is wondering why so much hate for Bellchambers, remember that once upon a time he was going too be a big beast ruckman, the heir to Simon Madden or at least David Hille. But he has spent eight years 'about to break out' but hindered by injuries and now he's mysteriously gone form good prospect to over-30. As a match up, he's much less of a worry for Gawn than Pittonet turned out to be, because Pittonet made a good effort of running around and getting involved wherever he could, while Bellchambers will give the illusion of a ruck contest then struggle to keep up anywhere else. Realistically, expect Gawn to have a similar game to last week BUT also expect his direct opponent to not be so significant. (Full credit to young Pittonet, too, always good to see a player at a career cross-roads make an impression... and I can say by one point...)

Absolutely. I actually see the situation as one where with a bit of confidence and stability we could see many, most, even (gasp) all of those players lift back to their upper level performances, which would be an incredible near-unstoppable team. You just made me have a vision of the team of the second half of Daniher's time at the club, except without chronic injuries and individual fluctuations in form. Imagine if they had all been fit and in best form at the same time, even for one season. Even for the 'right' half of a season. I guess that's the story of the Dogs of 2016.

The persistent, maddening theme of the Melbourne Demons' list is the sheer number of players with huge gaps between their best and worst. So many have shown superb form in glimpses, strongs of good games, or even for whole seasons, but then not taking a next step or seriously dropping away. It has made me crazy enough to do a quick catalogue just to put it clearly in my mind so I stop thinking about it too much! Would be interested to hear other's thoughts on the topic, and which players they think will come out at the better or worse end of their range. Hibberd -It was just a couple of years ago he was a worthy all-Australian selection, providing great drive from defence and smart intercepting and support. 2019 saw frankly half the player of 2017. Jetta - Was finally making the transition from being spruiked as underappreciated to being actually appreciated as a great small defender, but an injury-ruined 2019 also seemed to drain the intensity and decisiveness that were his trademark. Melksham - The goal assist king, his 2018 contribution to setting up scores hasn't been beaten by any player since Cyril Rioli's 2011, and he chipped in 30+ goals of his own. One of the few players to keep plugging along respectably in 2019, he has been barely sighted this season. May - Seven marks a game and seven intercepts a game at his best. At his current output it'll take him two more games to reach that tally for either. He's been so uninvolved he hasn't even given away or received a single free kick in 2020! Vandenberg - It is a widely held opinion that Vandenberg brings something (a form of Schwerpunkt?) that lifts the team around him. Unfortunately for long periods he hasn't had a foot capable of lifting the Vandenberg around it. It is anyone's guess what we will see when he does become available. T McDonald - Another player who this season has produced, literally, not figuratively, half the numbers of his best season. Nil impact from a player who once clunked 134 marks, laid 50 tackles from CHF, provided chop-outs in the ruck AND kicked a superbly accurate 53.20 in a season. What the hell? Bennell - At least with the comeback man we can only see the upside. Could be crucial A-grade silk, but in nine seasons three have been injury interrupted and four simply wiped out. Hannan - His mid-2018 best was as exciting at Fritsch's late 2019. Didn't look anywhere near as creative and dangerous on the path back from injury in 2019. Has a lot of believers but hasn't been seen yet in 2020. Viney - absolute midfield gun bringing crucial hardness... or too slow with an unreliable thoughtless kick, keeping better players out of their best positions. And that difference of opinion has been held by people watching the same game! Thankfully the valuable Viney appears to be back in 2020 but the uncertainty lingers. Hunt - A mystery wrapped in an enigma tied together with a headband. If you took his first couple of seasons as a dashing flanker/wing with long runs and long kicks and compared them to his three-goal game almost entirely up forward against Carlton, you would not think even for a moment it was the same player. We don't even know if he was very good or just fortunate, he's that confusing. Petracca - I believe. 'Pre-body-transformation Petracca' was actually rivaling some of the most most lauded forwards-who-go-to-midfield such as De Goey. The New Improved Petracca is doing every thing he did before plus 30% more! In shortened quarters! For once we are talking about variability between good and a level of play that requires caps lock on to describe. Having said that, it is still a big difference and still a part of why Melbourne's 2020 destiny is so impossible to anticipate. Brayshaw - I want to believe. Where Petracca's numbers and impact have gone up 30% from his baseline, Brayshaw's numbers and impact have gone backwards by about the same amount since his impressive peak in 2018. Are we talking about a tough inside midfielder with outstanding capacity to think a step ahead without losing concentration on the moment he's in, or are we talking about a kind-of-adequate mid picked last being the 'real guns' and who is on the field mostly because the coach thinks Harmes can be worked into a really effective half-back? Neal-Bullen - a busy pest of a pressure forward and general runner who might not make perfect opportunities, but does make extra opportunities and helps disrupt the fast counter-attacks that mess with our game plan. Or, 1/4 of that and 3/4 of mostly ineffective running around, as seen against the Blues. Smith - It's hard to know what you'll get from someone who has been so damn unlucky with injury. Two quotes sum it up - "Pre-season bolter and Melbourne rookie defender Joel Smith will make his debut against St Kilda." and "Joel Smith may have only played 15 minutes in his debut match against St Kilda in round one, but..." Lever - Another where the numbers, taken generally, tell a fair story. Currently producing almost exactly half of what he did in his final season at the Crows. Coincidentally, he has also yet to play even half of any given season for the Demons. The upside is of course what a solid block of games could restore. Fristsch - His last eight or so games of 2019 were as good as any produced by a mid-sized forward in recent memory. Against Carlton he looked massive early and even after fading he still managed 6 shots on goal for the game... for 1.4 and one out on the full. Is he a top-5 player from his draft or is he an undersized and inaccurate full forward who flashes in and out of game? Weideman - has had just a couple of good games, including of course THAT final where he did as much as anyone could possibly expect of a very young tall forward. But those few games look like the icing on a cake made of [blank] with a base of [blank] - a fairly even split of ordinary and very ordinary. But if the 'super-Weid' is what emerges from the shutdown then our forward line is a whole different proposition. Then of course we've got all those kids who, naturally, could be a whole lot or very little. But SEVENTEEN players with really noticeable variability in their contribution is more than enough to drive anyone mad. Especially when so many of them the variability includes a low end that is questionably AFL standard.

Two years by the calendar, less than one by the number of rounds played. But taking the point, Petracca may have just played two games in a row that were better (more complete, at least) than any of his from last season. Meanwhile, here's a first 'curious stats' post for the season Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca stats comparison. It's actually a bit uncanny how many of their stats are similar or even identical. https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=12&type=A&pid1=4041&pid2=4166&fid1=S&fid2=S Also, our Clayton is definitely kicking it a bit more this season. Might be a little under the radar with Petracca getting all the attention, but he could be in for a mighty season.