Little Goffy

I think the Tigers are finally going into a sustained slide. Must be respected on any given game day, and might have a surge of form at some point, but I don't think they have the completeness in their team to be a consistent winner. Bulldogs look like they'll be suffering from Carlton Syndrome (TM) for a while; easy enough to identify several really high quality players so they look potent at a glance, but sorely deficient in both type and quality as you get down the list. Similar to Richmond; any given game it could come together and with their stars performing and the depth finding their energy, they could have very, very good days or even months, but it isn't a recipe for a strong end-of-season tally. Fremantle had 19 players play 20 or more games last season - a normal pattern would be around a dozen. That astonishing number includes Logue, Acres and Lobb. Their depth is unknown, though at least they do have Amiss and Erasmus as young early-draft selections to attach some hope for. On the other hand, Travis Colyer, the player you get if Spargo has already plateaued and spends another ten years in the system anyway, played 18 games, so their depth can't be that great. I'd say Freo aare 50/50 to either finish top 4 or miss the 8 completely. My gut says miss the 8 completely.

This is one of those little background worries for me. Thankfully not one I expect to see intensify for years. I feel like we have some of the best vice-captains and leaders from within the group which any club could hope for. On a level with peak Geelong or Hawthorn. Standards are set, communicated, demonstrated and enforced right through the team. Light shines into every corner. So, with all that, why am I worried? I just get this feeling like no specific individual after Gawn is quite the full match for a captaincy. All these great leaders we have, their styles and personalities support each other and that may be disturbed if one is made Captain. If I had to pick one, I'd say Brayshaw is most likely to be able to consciously reshape his behaviour to suit the role. That's the key feature; that conscious choice to change, the humility and will to become what is needed is what made Gawn the outstanding captain he is. And, pardon my misty eyes here, it is explicitly the legacy of Jim Stynes and the practises of the Reach foundation

I always thought it was called a croquet lawn. That's what my French friends, Madame and Monsieur Croque, insisted anyway. But they were hardly the athletic type.

The trouble is, ours actually hit the target.

I was looking for an appropriate reply to this and somehow I now am aware that there is such a thing as a 'sexy Alien xenomorph' halloween costume.

See, this is why I always make sure I send smoochy-face emojis in groups of prime numbers, so there can be no doubt that they were individually crafted rather than copy-pasted. She'll count, she'll count, and one day she will accuse! Not specifically this instance; I have never sent bulk smoochy-face emojis to WalkingCivilWar. That I know of.

I'm really glad we snagged a premiership before she retired. I feel like it is important just to be sure that nobody, ever, gets the impression that there was anyone greater than her in the first decade of AFL-level women's football. Hoping to see more commentary from her and I'm sure a terrific book is coming along soon!

AI will really kick in as a genuinely useful thing when it begins to be used to support 'mutual best outcome' estimation in things like trade week. Not so much that it is cleverer or philosophically deep, but an AI would have the capacity to look at all clubs objectives simultaneously without getting a ripping headache, and without personally caring which club looked like they were 'doing best'. Actually, that second part is an aspect of why Melbourne have pick-traded so effectively in the last few years - caring a lot less about who 'won' and just being interested in 'did we gain?' Okay, I'll come clean - there's a thing my older brother (Yes, that would be, 'Big Goffy') was involved in and it is freak'n awesome. You'll need your nerd hat on: https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_campaign=cicero&utm_content=video

Still a long way short of New Caledonian Crows, but competing on even terms with the Collingwood Cheer Squad.

Did Tom Mcdonald have a great season in 2022, even before he was injured? Not really. Did we lose a game in 2022 while Tom McDonald was in the team? No. Just eyeballing it, "Tom McDonald vs No McDonald" there's about a four goal per game difference in our for/against in 2022. It hopefully matters a little less in 2023 with Van Rooyen matching him for height, size and blondness and Grundy being an extra tall around the ground (the old 'value over replacement' equation a little less dramatic), but McDonald is a top quality structural player who we do well to remind each other of. If anyone knows where to dig, I'd love to see what his "pressure acts / team acts" ratings were like, as well.

I guess logically it goes "if B then A." Maybe crazy stripes just deter bitey things? There was a fashion in surfing for a while to add all kinds of stripes on boards and wetsuits as a way to confuse sharks. Then there's all those interwar-era navies that gave it a try, presumably to deter giant octopuses. Octopi. Giantopuses.

Science. https://www.realclearscience.com/quick_and_clear_science/2019/10/07/painting_zebra_stripes_on_cows_wards_off_biting_flies.html

We could have a Van and a Laurie arrive at the same time. For all your logistical needs, contact the Melbourne Football Club.

I never thought I'd say it, but now there is a worse pre-season pump-up clip than the Ren & Stimpy 'Happy happy joy joy' one the Demons produced around 2009ish.

All righty then, let's see... B: Bowey Petty Lever HB: Salem May Rivers C: Langdon Petracca Brayshaw HF: Grundy [BBB/TMC] Hunter F: Pickett Van Rooyen Fritsch Foll: Gawn Oliver Viney and your favourites of Tomlinson, Harmes, Jordon, Neal-Bullen, Spargo, Smith, Sparrow, Laurie, Dunstan, Melksham. I'm tipping only one of Brown and McDonald will be in the round one team and that Van Rooyen will be ahead of the other. Grundy will be playing the traditional role of rucking half-forward/third tall! Langdon will have a wing left as open as possible while Brayshaw will take a wing-to-defence and Hunter will take a wing-to-attack role on the more congested side (i.e., the side May always kicks out to!) I think Laurie might sneak in if his practice games are good enough, becoming a dedicated small defender and pushing Rivers to the bench as another reasonably flexible runner. I think we may yet see Tomlinson string a chunk of games together as Goodwin has a go at positional moves, trying to confuse opponents and test out the best way to use Gawn/Grundy and maybe induct Petty as a swingman option.

So, Kangaroos it is.

A mosquito's main methods of detecting and approaching suitable prey include body heat and also, surprisingly, carbon dioxide emissions from breathing. The obvious solution is to wear a full wetsuit and use snorkel. You'll be in 'Dutch vs the Predator' final battle mode. A bit inconvenient for most of us but Uncle Bitters can just grab his usual saturday evening finest.

This is getting into 'curse' territory for Adelaide and tall defenders. Never played in a win.

I'm just glad it wasn't the video Jake Meklsham has of Simon Goodwin.

I see where you're coming from - perhaps a better emphasis would have been that even now it takes a certain type of courage to be able to open up about your vulnerabilities, even to a professional. Like you, I dislike the implication that only talking about it is strength and courage. But damn I'd wish people coming back from war had had the option to talk if they wanted, without all that old noxious pressure to keep their pain to themselves because society craves clean heroes and politicians crave controlled 'memory'. But I'll also never deny the fundamental honour and quiet kindness of not burdening others with a trauma they can't possibly comprehend.

Got it. They all hate cats. No?

Purely as a contingency, I'll be death-riding Port as well as Freo in 2023, just to make sure they can offer us at least a top-5 pick and change. ;) But seriously, Kysaiah Pickett is a rare player. Not many forwards - let alone small forwards - top 40 goals in a season in consecutive seasons, and he has managed in every full season he's played!

Happy birthday, Brian!

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Jackson, and somewhat ironic that if they are using him as their forward target he could so so important to their success that the better he does, the worse our compensation for losing him will be! Personally I think he has always looked best running among chaos, in bursts of labrador puppy level enthusiasm, chasing everything, getting involved in everything, and showing off his incredible level of initiative for a tall. He might become a very high quality forward but I think that will always be a little sad. Think of it as if West Coast had plonked Naitanui up forward all career; a scary and effective target but the team and football in general would have been poorer for it.

Two things that really stood out for me were his ability to keep his feet and be 100% anticipating the loose ball from a marking contest, and just how quickly he can set himself for a kick after taking the ball from sometimes quite awkward positions. First one gains him half a second on opponents reaction and the second means he needs half a second less to make a realistic shot on goal. Those two traits have earned him somewhere in the range of 10-15 goals in 2022.