Little Goffy

I like Baldwin as the third selection because I'm generally in favour of taking the risks to get talent that wouldn't normally be available. We're also in a position where we have a couple of 28 year-old tall forwards (Brown and McDonald) as well as existing younger prospects that means our tall forward group might be a bit stacked for a couple of years, but after that we will see the group evolve significantly. Right now, a new young key tall would struggle to crack our 22, but in a couple of years we will need to renew that part of our list a bit. It makes list management sense to have a potentially really good tall developing cautiously (on comparatively low money, too, which is also important with the cap shenanigans going on everywhere) ready to step up when the opportunities will naturally emerge. On the other hand, if he doesn't work out, we will have had a couple of years to find that out before within our own system, and can draft accordingly in future.

Fair to say at least one of these clubs will need to open some salary cap space in the very near future. Wonder who we can get at bargain price? Ideally for the team offloading it would be the kind of higher quality but not quite star player who would take a fair bit of salary off the books without causing a massive ruckus among supporters. Oooooooh Bailey Williams out of contract 2021. Thank you, have a nice day.

This bridge was burned decades ago when the 'A'FL was created by using the cheapest available method. Selfishly, maybe I don't regret it as it is hard to imagine Melbourne being one of the half dozen (instead of ten) Victorian clubs selected for 'promotion' to the top tier. Then again, properly executed, the AFL system could have had a relegation system between an absolute top-tier and a highly competitive and well resourced second tier. Instead, what we have is one giant tier that is just a bit short of elite, and then a second tier that at times can border on the half-arsed.

Remember that time when you worked at that place where you bought/sold a thing but didn't actually work out the price to even the nearest six figures... and didn't get fired? No? Me neither.

I don't know if there's a specific number of wins or ladder position, but at the end of 2021 we will know if things are where they ought to be if the general chatter about us includes phrases such as 'premiership threat 2022'. That obviously includes a premiership 2021! There are two particular things I'll be watching our games for - holding back the tide when things turn against us, instead of giving away bulk goals in 15 minute lapses, and really putting the hammer to opponents when we do get on top. Caveats and footnotes galore. We could have anywhere from 8 all-Australians and the Rising star, to none of the above.

Really, I could have sworn everyone said he was too heavy?

I heard they are offering him a contract of 650k for the first seven years and then 4 million a year for the final two.

In the spirit of it being an exercise in anticipation rather than pretending I know any more than anyone else; B: Hibberd May Rivers HB: Tomlinson Lever Salem C: Langdon Brayshaw Harmes HF: Melksham Weideman Petracca F: Fritsch B.Brown Pickett FOLL: Gawn Oliver Viney INTER: Jackson and without speculating too much on kids, the ready-to-go bodies for the rest of the interchange; Jones, Jetta, VandenBerg, McDonald, Hunt, Neal-Bullen, Hore, M Brown I have mild concerns about getting the better versions of Harmes and Brayshaw. I worry a bit about that named half-forward line as Petracca will still mostly be midfield, Melksham's form dropped badly, and Weideman's completion as a footballer is still uncertain. Very happy with out defensive unit, though a truly lock-down fast nugget small defender would be a good option to have. Very happy with out Followers. And that full-forward line could be outright unbeatable.

It's a nice little metaphor for society, reallly. 'It could have been a big hit to income but we'll soften the blow by tossing a couple of the most vulnerable people out of the boat completely.' Righto, with that out of the way, we can get back to all being in this together.

For this draft only (and in classic AFL HQ 'on-the-run why would we let anyone know in advance hey why not announce it after trade period that'll be fun' style) teams can select fewer than three players if there are circumstances such as, um, being Gold Coast or similar enough to Gold Coast that it would be too obvious if they excluded you. I believe there is also an extension to how many late picks you can horde for points burning - previously you could only cash in as many picks as you actually could have taken in the draft. Also worth noting is that if Sydney can't cover their priority selections with points from this draft, that carry-over cost will move their first selection backwards in the 2021 draft. Just to illustrate - by the points system, pick 28 is about the same as going from pick 5 to pick 13. If their first academy pick goes well inside the top 10 as expected, that will burn both their picks in the 30s and they definitely won't have the spares to cover the second bid. So, realistically, either Sydney trade for more burner picks this draft or their top pick in 2021 will actually be multiple places earlier in the draft IF it is held by someone other than Sydney! The other time would get, say, 7, but Sydney would only be giving up 11! Personally, I'd be okay with us giving up 19 and 28 this year for 'hypothetically 7ish' next year. I also think Sydney would see giving up what would otherwise be 'hypothetically 11ish' next year for pick 18 this year and the burner points to stop their second 2021 pick from being crippled. The trade would work out as; We give up 19 and 28 (2020) and get 7~ (2021). They give up 11~ (2021) and get 19 (2020) and effectively 'advance' their 2021 second round pick from 40~ to 24~ Bureaucracy is magnificent.

If Sydney's second NGA pick (expected bit in the 20s) hasn't been bid on by the time our 18/19 come up, don't be surprised if one of those selections plus 33 and 50 go to the Swans for a combo featuring their 2021 first rounder in live trading on the night. Gets them a draft pick ahead of their points burning as well as the later points to burn, and gets us realistically well inside the first round of 2021. And we get to make the decision after we have picked our favourite of the options at 18. Sydney would be loving it; pick 3, then top ten level NGA pick, then pick 19, then early second round NGA pick. Working the system twice in one draft because we'll be holding that 19 safely for them until after the first points burn is done. It's hard to figure out exactly but I think that means all our pick trading, aside from some practical positioning, would bring a net result of turning our 2021 first rounder into Sydney 2021 first rounder, plus loose change, without actually giving anything up.

Not his best year but still better than all but a handful of footballers could ever manage. I'm immensely looking forward to the development of Jackson and the presence of Brown meaning that the burden of being the long bomb relief target is shared around a bit more. Gawn being free to use his fitness more aggressively will add an impossible-to-plan-for component to our attack. He was never going to get to burn off opposition ruckmen with the rules the way they were in 2020 and with the limited tall support, but 2021 could be a very different scene.

Worth noting that Essendon almost certainly tanked the second half of their season, so may be a little more dangerous than they seem. 5W 2L, then 1W 1D 8L. About round 8, someone in the secret herbs and spices department at AFL House must have tipped them off that Daniher would get them the bonus first rounder matching their existing pick. Once a couple of injuries to senior players came in they clearly had no reason to do any better in 2020. Beware, the cheats may be a rabble but they still know how to game the system.

I'm curious, if Colonwood get salary cap relief for delisting a player who they recruited entirely knowing the risk and situation, the possibly consequences could be... Can't finish the sentence. Too long; didn't write! The sense of entitlement is mind-boggling.

If we want to open the game up and add to the spectacle we would only need to make the midfielders tired. Fresh forwards competing one-out against fresh defenders is as edge of your seat spectacle of human contest as it gets in sport. Alternatively, more skills in the midfield to tip the balance in favour of piercing attack rather than scragging defence. The perfect example of that imbalance is the Women's game, where there's no question on the commitment and effort but the skills won't catch up until a generation of girls has grown up with a Sherrin in hand. As a result the women's game is missing a bit of the dynamisn and flow that we expect to see at the top level.

Always great when you buy something and it is exactly what it said it was on the box.

It might work in our favour a bit because we have the game's fittest ruck, as well as fit key position players at both end of the ground who can stay on the park for almost the whole game (Bonus: Ben Brown was on the field for something like 98% of the time in 2019) We also have more midfield depth than most so we can rotate without losing too much quality. Perhaps most valuable - tired opponents means less flooding back, fewer intercepts and more chances for our forwards to use time and space to make something useful of our wonky entries.

Possibility 1 - we are confident that with fewer than usual players being taken in 2020, the 2021 draft will be deeper with leftovers as well as being higher 'natural' quality as projected. Not so much a need to get into the top picks. Possibility 2 - our late first round picks might be traded out in live trading to clubs who want to get in ahead of their academy picks, so they can double-dip (can someone confirm for me that future picks can be live-traded?) Possibility 3 - one final trade up to make sure we get Archie Perkins.

It's funny how different an impression you can get of someone when you hear them speaking instead of it being BT wailing on about hair and run-ups whenever he comes on screen. ?

Collingwood: "Hey Neville, we're interested in maybe offering you a longer, more secure contract than Melbourne can, because we're keen to have you be part of improving our culture" Jetta: "Oh, yeah, that sounds reasonable, I'll need to think about thaaaaaaa... um, please excuse me, I think I left my cat on the stove."

Two out of three ain't bad.

Hmm. Other things being equal, just from a list changes perspective I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest gaining Ben Brown vs losing Treloar, Phillips and Stephenson is realistically worth a ladder difference of one draw. I'd say we will climb ahead of Collingwood. Bulldogs are basically in the same category as us for 'possible but questionable' except where we threw away a couple of close games we should have won, they let their poorer games really run away from them. Both teams have added valuable players highly suited to their needs. Both might climb further. Either or both could stumble. West Coast being injury-ravaged in 2020 is a myth. They had as many players play the full season or just miss one or two games as any other club - they just publicised their 'outs' better. Never mind their sooking about being in Queensland, they had close to the most stable fixture with perhaps the least travel burden of any club outside Queensland, including the six home games in a row which saved their season. A total of three wins separate us from them and can easily see us being two wins better and them two worse, even if they don't quite drop out of the eight. For the new improved St Kilda I think a fair analogy is North Melbourne from 2002 to 2019. They'll be in and out of finals and almost never rubbish (North managed at least ten wins in 15 of those 18 seasons). St Kilda will finish somewhere from 6th to 10th, roll dice each year. Best of luck to them, I hope one year they grab a premiership with a surge at the right time. 50/50 for finals in 2021. Speaking of dice, Geelong just maxed out their salary cap and cashed in their draft presence on one last roll. Simple schadenfreude demands they fall apart around mid-year. In fact, the omens are good because I just spelled schadenfreude correctly on the first attempt. So it is written, so shall it be.

Today I noticed that my teapot was a bit close to the edge of the kitchen bench and just had to stop for a cry because it might one day topple over and hit a future child of mine as it falls.

I wonder if this will affect Lumumba's lawsuit? Pro; Further evidence that Collingwood marginalises players who don't fit in perfectly, and then treat them like s... Con; Evidence that being [censored] to everyone is just the Collingwood way rather than being specifically racially motivated.

I've gone and developed a genuine draft-crush for the first time in years. Archie Perkins will likely go in the middle of the first round, so we need to get into that range. Possible Targets: Essendon: 6, 7, 8, 44, 77, 85, 87 Lots of list spots to fill. Some top picks but then dross. They might be enticed by some combo of 19+ 28 to keep them participating meaningfully. Fremantle 12, 32, 55 Doesn't seem likely, but hey, it is Fremantle. GWS 10, 13, 15, 20, 29, 52, 74, 88 What the hell are they going to do with all those picks? That's just selfish. Again. Unfortunately they look all set for drafting early and then burning late picks for academy points. North Melbourne 2, 11, 30, 39, 71, 81 That 11 is 'ours' anyway, isn't it? I can see it happening, once they've got their draftee star they'd love to be able to point to as many young guns as possible coming through the system, so a pair of later first rounders may have value. Adelaide 1, 9, 22, 23, 40, 56, 66, 80 Nine would do the job for us nicely, but they might not see the point in adding 18 or 19 to their 22 and 23. But 18, 19 and 28 for 9 and 23 might start a conversation. Collingwood 14, 16, 65, 70, 75, 92 Offer them 18 and 89 for 14 and 92 and see if they are still drunk, but only if Archie is still available at 14. And that's every pick from 6 to 16 covered in just six clubs.