Fat Tony

With Viney out I have changed to this: Jetta Frost Grimes Vince T McDonald Wagner Stretch Tyson Bugg Petracca Hogan Kennedy Garlett Watts Pedersen Gawn N Jones Oliver Harmes Hunt Michie Trengove IN Pedersen Frost Grimes Trengove Michie Oliver OUT Kent O McDonald Garland (inj) Neal-Bullen Viney (sus) Newton

This is a good analysis but it fails to point out the high percentage of the opposition's scoring shots which have been walk in goals. We are defending way too high up the ground.

We are pressing too high and our kick in zone is like swiss cheese at the moment. Even against Collingwood and Richmond we gave up too many end to end scoring opportunities.

It is early in the week and we may see injuries and suspensions. At this stage I would look at: Jetta Frost Grimes Vince T McDonald Wagner Stretch Tyson Bugg Petracca Hogan Kennedy Garlett Watts Pedersen Gawn N Jones Viney Harmes Hunt Michie Oliver IN Pedersen Frost Grimes Trengove Michie OUT Kent O McDonald Garland (inj.) Neal-Bullen Newton Kent was diabolical in the first half against Port and his disposal is shocking. Trade bait IMO. Pedersen is the best replacement IMO. O McDonald is a 2017 story at best. He needs to get stronger and more intensity in his game. He might benefit from AFL experience, but we need to grow a winning culture. Time to give Frost a go in the backline. Garland’s injury saved Wagner from getting dropped. Grimes to come in and play on Rioli or Breust. Neal-Bullen just hasn’t had an impact. I think it is time to give Trengove another shot at the big time on the MCG. I prefer Michie to Newton.

Jetta Garland Frost Vince T McDonald N Jones Stretch Tyson Bugg Kent Hogan Kennedy Garlett Watts Pedersen Spencer Neal-Bullen Viney Petracca Harmes Hunt Michie I know we won by 10 goals on Sunday, but I think we could see a large number of changes against Port. Jetta, Tyson and probably Pedersen/Dawes will likely come in. And our worst players against the Lions were defenders (O McDonald and Wagner IMO). Spencer for Gawn – Gawn looks tired and needs a rest, so I don’t think we would lose much in this swap given Gawn’s very recent form. Obviously Gawn’s best is much better, but I doubt he can get through the season at a high level. Jetta for Wagner – Wagner was poor on Sunday IMO and Jetta needs to come back in for someone. Frost for O McDonald – I think we need to maintain an extra tall in the backline and Oscar isn’t ready yet. I think Dunn is finished given the zone defence we are playing. So I would try Frost. Pedersen for Newton – Newton is very unlucky and it could be Michie or Hunt instead. Tyson for Oliver – I wouldn’t risk Oliver given he looked injured and we have only a six day break. I hope we play both N Jones and Vince off half back. Our backline looks dysfunctional and I think we have enough inside ball winning mids now to do this.

The MRP has always been a joke. No chance Gray would have got off if it was not going to result in a suspension.

We are the third highest scoring side in the comp. Why would we want to mess with the balance of the forward line? If Gawn needs a rest (which I think he does) he should be rested.

It works for NM because Waite and Petrie are both good at applying pressure. Our forward line includes Watts and Hogan, who are both below average. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-05-18/the-stats-files-which-key-forward-does-it-all

The game is in Alice Springs. Playing two rucks always looks good on paper. And then on game day, the lack of pressure on the ball becomes obvious.

Better to rest Gawn if he needs it than to play two rucks IMO.

I like the idea of using Jack Watts in the ruck. He has very good timing and does a good job in the centre bounces. We obviously need to improvise a bit around the ground with a third man up occasionally, but we can plan for this with Tyson, Vince and Petracca. And having one less tall also adds to our defensive pressure in the forward line.

Robbie Gray reported for tripping

Gawn just looks a bit tired and with Pedersen out there is a question on who will be second ruck.

I am a bit surprised Spencer didn't come in given Gawn's game last week.

I don't think Dunn is capable of playing the zone defensive structure we are trying to play. He doesn't have the leap or length to play in front of his man, which is a key requirement. Garland isn't the only defender who is struggling and at least he has the athleticism. Only Jetta and Tom McDonald on his good days and maybe Vince are defending well.

Prestia will cost our 2017 first round pick plus $600K of salary cap space. Gaining Prestia is not without cost, particularly given we need to sign Hogan, Tom McDonald, Petracca and Oliver. We don't have the luxuries afforded to GWS.

I haven’t made up my mind either way on Prestia. But the counter argument to targeting Prestia is this: Firstly, our inside midfield is already overstocked with talent. On the weekend the team included Viney, N Jones, Tyson and Oliver in the middle, plus Vince and Michie in defence and Petracca and up forward. Our outside midfielders were Salem, Harmes, Kennedy and Bugg – all of which could potentially go inside at some stage. In the VFL our best players this season have been Neal-Bullen, Trengove and Newton. And on the injured list now are Brayshaw (who has question marks over his head), Vandenberg and Kent. Secondly, Prestia has come off a serious knee injury and has been playing ordinary football this season. He started the year well, but he has averaged only 80 Supercoach points since round 3. (By comparison, Tom Bugg has averaged 84 points this year.) Maybe he can come back and play well next year with a strong preseason. But maybe he can’t get back to his best. Thirdly, the rule changes have seen the game open up this season. I think our greatest need is some outside players (who can still win their own ball when required) but offer pace and skill on the outside. And I don’t rate Prestia’s kicking or ability on the outside as highly as the masses here on Demonland. Personally, I would definatly target Hurley before Prestia. And even if we miss out on Hurley, I would like to see Prestia return to playing at a higher level to even consider him. Especially given the likely cost of $600K plus our 2017 first round pick.

IMO we would be better off just giving Gawn a rest at some stage. (Maybe this week with the bye five matches away.) I think Pedersen, Dawes and Frost offer more up forward, particularly in the way of defensive pressure.

Bugg had 9 tackles yesterday. I doubt he will be dropped. He is sloppy with the ball at times but he has some strengths. He needs to improve to be a long term player but he is only 23.

I would like to see Harmes go back. He has the leap and athleticism required and would provide some dash off half back.

Garland had just hurt his wrist before coming off.

The Dogs did a good job of nullifying Gawn’s influence in the ruck and so we lost the game at the contest. The Inside 50s were 62 to 48 and the Contested Possessions were 155 to 125. The Dogs were also very fast and clean by hand when they won the ball and tackled well when they didn’t. This is not to say our back line isn’t struggling. As much as Garland was exposed, so too were Hunt and Wagner. But in saying this, I feel our back line are getting no help from our game plan. IMO we are over-pressing in the forward line, particularly late in quarters when the game opens up. Our back line is then getting shown as ordinary because the heat on the ball is lacking and because AFL players are all skilled enough to find a target with an open forward line and no pressure. IMO we should be more willing to flood back late in quarters and allow the opposition an easier midfield transition, so long as we get numbers back into our defensive 50. Stretch was good and clean and provided further confirmation that he will be a good AFL player. He isn’t a super quick outside player and needs to do more defensively. Petracca showed his unquestionable talent, but his decision making is poor at the moment compared to AFL players and he needs more games. It also surprises me how much of the ball he is getting. Oliver didn’t have a great day and needs to get fitter and stronger. I thought Michie used the ball well, but he had 0 tackles. Salem is classy but needs to run harder. Kennedy continues to impress me. It sounds like we will have a few suspended players this week, so I wouldn’t be making many unforced changes. As well as ANB is going in the VFL, he doesn’t play back which is where we are struggling. If Jetta gets suspended, I would like to see Harmes be tried down back. IMO a modern defence needs players with the ability to get off the ground.

My issue is that we shouldn't have signed Spencer before the end of the year. He might get injured and miss 2017. B-grade ruckman can be acquired cheaply. Smith, Currie, Giles, Leuenberger, Fitzpatrick all moved clubs last year for little in return. The other point to make on your post is that Hulett and King could have easily slipped through to the rookie draft if we didn't take them.

Geelong got a bargain.

This stat is incredible and yet not surprising. According to Champion Data, Melbourne has won 18 more takeaways than the opposition per 100 centre bounces when Oliver is there. That number drops by 12 on average whenever he wanders outside the centre bounce setup.