Fat Tony

Good analysis 55. What are your thoughts on targeting Ellis instead as a FA?

Justin Westhoff would be worth considering if Port move him on. Paul Puopolo might get cut from the Hawks. Both would cost a low salary and nothing in draft picks.

Ellis fills our need for outside run and is a free agent. As much as Brad Hill is a much better player, the smarter play would be to keep our picks and target Ellis. Langdon is a younger version of Ellis, but would cost a draft pick. in terms of priority I prefer Ellis, Hill then Langdon.

Nothing like it.

With the season shot I feel we need to continue experimenting with our list a little with an eye to next season. The last two weeks we have gone with two ruckmen in the same side and I think it is already clear that neither are good enough as forwards to go with in our best 22 over the long term. Harrison Petty has been pretty good as a target in both games as a forward, but he looks more natural to me in defence given his lack of pace. As such, I hope we play Steven May as a forward for the rest of the season. We already know May is a gun defender but let's see if he can be the solution in our forward line alongside TMac for 2020. This is our biggest weakness and, while we all want Sam Weideman to take the next step, we need to see if May can actually give us a better return as a forward. Personally, I think our backline already has good depth with Frost, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem, Hore, Jones, OMac and Petty. While May obviously makes the defence better, he is potentially more value at the other end.

I hope we play May forward. We know he is a gun defender but let's see if he can be the solution in our forward line along side TMac for next year. Our backline has enough depth with Frost, Lever, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem, Hore, Jones, OMac and Petty. I also would like Lever to play on the second best key forward rather than be given the easy task. It is pretty clear that Preuss is a ruckman and not a forward, so I think he needs to be dropped.

I know our season is cooked but the decision to play Preuss is not a good one IMO. McGovern will have a field day on him and we need all the run we can get on the big Alice Springs ground.

I would push Jones back to cover Jetta's absence in defence. He is not a wingman and now that he has been pushed out of our centre midfield, he will provide more as a small defender IMO. Stretch to come in as Jetta's replacement. Garlett should come into the side for Spargo. We need to bring in another true key defender to play on Riewoldt and Lynch. Oscar or Petty need to come in (partnering with Frost) for either J Wagner or Hore. (Probably Hore out based on pace.) Lewis is past it and we need to inject some more run. Lockhart should come in for him and play a wing role. Neal-Bullen for Preuss if he is not fit. There are other players out of form like Hibberd and Fritsch but I think we have to let them work through it. C Wagner also lucky, but we are thin for options at Casey. But the biggest change we need to make is to our defence and being less aggressive in pressing the ball carrier. The Tigers are fast and will kill us if we over commit. Up forward the key issue is we need better contests from TMac and Weideman.

At the margin, the rule change will help the weaker teams. Last year we kicked more behinds than the opposition and we were then able to get repeat entries inside our 50. This year it will be easier to take the ball the other way.

We were net +62 for behinds kicked last year (second to Richmond at +75) and first in inside 50s with +309 for the season in 2018. If anything I see the change in the kick-in rule as a negative for us.

Eddie on MMM said the game was on Friday afternoon. It would be good to get confirmation of the start time.

I think we have very few natural wingmen on our list and none that have proven to be A-grade AFL players. Stretch and Baker are really the only two on our list that I can think of. Players like Salem, Vandenberg, Fritsch, KK, Jones and Hunt can all play the wing role, but I think they are better suited to other positions. Smith's kicking is a weakness, but otherwise he has the athletic traits needed for the role IMO (i.e. speed, endurance, size). In this respect he is a bit similar to Vandenberg.

Looking at the sides, about 30 players could make legitimate claims to getting a game in round 1. I would like to see us trial Joel Smith on a wing in the preseason given his mix of speed and endurance. I prefer Fritsch in defence given his intercept marking and distribution. He could be an elite defender. And I would like to see Hunt tried as a forward. He is not as skillful as Spargo or Garlett but I think he could be a better pressure player and stronger overhead. It will be also interesting if Kolodjashnij can get a spot on the wing or in defence.

I don't think we were his club of choice.

That's one way of looking at it. But from my perspective Beams is a gun, finishing top 10 in the last two Brownlows. He is arguably Collingwood's best player now. My rankings would be: 1. Richmond 2. Essendon 3. Collingwood 4. Carlton 5. Hawthorn 6. Fremantle 7. Geelong 8. North Melbourne 9. St Kilda 10. Melbourne 11. Brisbane 12. Sydney 13. Adelaide 14. Port Adelaide 15. West Coast 16. Western Bulldogs 17. GCS 18. GWS

I don't think Plough is that far off the mark. The big winners of the trade period were Richmond, Essendon and Collingwood who all picked up star players for nothing or cheap value. We came out with a C+ despite not winning on any individual trade. The grade I would question most the D+ on Geelong given they picked up Dahlhaus for nothing. I think he penalised them for not getting the Kelly trade done, but I don't think that is really fair.

This is probably plan B. But I think we could do with another alternative on our list.

I understand the knock on Menzel but his offensive side of the game is elite. He ranked 16th in the league for goals per game last year ahead of Tom Lynch (GCS), Walker, Greene, Gray, Curnow, Membrey and Betts. I would be in favour of bringing him onto the list instead of pick 90. What if Weideman or McDonald get injured this year?

I still think we are lacking two good wingers. The way I see it: Jones - Really a natural inside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Really a natural inside midfielder. Stretch - He plays like a gut running outside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Coming back from a foot injury. Hunt - Has played mostly at half back and could become a small pressure forward. Endurance and skills are the question marks. Baker - Looks a likely type but unproven. Has good size, pace and endurance. Skills are the question mark. Fritsch - I prefer him off half back given the way he reads the aerial ball. Not sure he has the breakaway speed for the wing. J Smith - Has played mostly off half back. Has the pace required and good overhead. Skills are the question mark. JKH - Similar player to Stretch. Harmes - Probably provides the best combination of skill, pace, endurance and overhead ability but he is also one of our best four inside midfielders. Kolodjashnij - Has mostly played off half back so far. Not sure on the endurance/pace and feel half back is likely to be his best position. Lewis - Too slow. Salem - Not overly quick and better off half back. Hannan - Has a good combination of pace, endurance and size. Not a great kick however.

We could only trade up if the holders of top picks are willing to trade but we have live pick trading this year, so this should be easier. GCS will almost certainly hold picks 2 & 3 and the SA clubs might look to deal given two of the top prospects are from SA. And Carlton may be willing to part with pick 1 to GWS to get Shiel. There are also a number of FS and Acadamy players available, so there will be the ability to package picks to move up or down the draft. In saying this, I think we have recently shown good ability to draft well with lower picks. so I don't think we should be scared of trading Hogan for a combination of lower picks as long as they aggregate points equate to our valuation of Hogan. If anything, a good drafting team is able to produce greater value with lower picks. Freo currently hold #5 (which will move to #6) and nothing else of value this year.

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

I would like to see us try and talk Waite into a comeback. He's still got it and would be a good short-term option if Hogan leaves.

Spargo is a good young player but lacks the body strength required at this stage. IMO we would be better off with JKH coming in. A case could also be made for Hunt, Joel Smith or even Vince being the inclusion if he is fit. We also need to think about how we tag Issac Smith this week. Tyson on the wing is not a good match up and he could be omitted due to the opposition.