I think most people are overlooking the biggest factor here, and that is that West Coast will take whatever they can get their hands on. Judd will nominate the club he wants, and if West Coast doesn't comply, they will get nothing for the greatest player in the league. They can't afford this, so they will be forced into dealing with whoever Judd wants. This means that they will make deals with the likes of Collingwood and Essendon regardless of previous dealings.
It all comes down to which club makes the best presentation to Judd over the next week. If Melbourne can offer him (not WC) something Collingwood cannot, we are in with a shot.