grazman

Again @WERRIDEEI think your starting 18 is very similar to mine, though obviously Adams is replaced by Payne and it's a toss of the coin for me between the 34 year old Zorko with a dodgy hammy and the the 31 year old Jarryd Lyons who played every H&A game last year but was overlooked for the finals. Effectively they've both been replaced in the midfield by Dunkley and will play limited minutes through the middle anyway barring injury. So the draw: The Lions play Us, Freo, Collingwood, GCS, Adelaide, and Saints twice. Based on last years form they should easily account for the last two but the Suns should be a more difficult proposition this season. They have four tough games to start the year against Port (although admittedly the Lions are the Power's bogey side), Us, the Doggies and Pies. The rest of the draw seems pretty favourable and they play a lot of last years finalists (Swans, Tigers, Cats, Freo) at home. They've almost a certainty to play finals (currently on the third line of the betting for the premiership at $8.00 on sportsbet) and many have them locked into the top four, but I'm still doubtful. 1. Brisbane for mine are the quintessential faux tough side - they beat up on sides at home, but they tend to fold under real physical pressure. Which isn't to say that they don't have some footballers I admire very much. Lachie Neale, Charlie Cameron, the big O, Starcevich are all fighters that give their all. I'd put McStay and Robinson in that category too, but they're gone. Of course this might sound like sour grapes after last years final series, where they beat us when we've had the wood on them and managed to win at the MCG for the first time in 7 years, but the counter argument to that was their two finals wins were against Richmond without Prestia (narrowly) and of course our issues at the end of the season were well known. Yes this really does sound like a Melbourne supporter cracking the sads and my opinion means SFA, but the expectations of the footy world are pretty high for the Lions to do it again and not revert to type like when they won only 1 final in 6 appearance in the previous three seasons. I'm betting on them reverting to type and here's why. 2. The best defensive sides in the competition usually play off for a place in the GF. I expect this year it will be pretty much the same as last year in terms of the three stand out defensive teams - namely Us, Geelong and Freo. Brisbane were 10th. Here's the rub they just lost Marcus Adams for the year with concussion. He was an unspectacular, but solid defender and until he was concussed in rd 21 last year had only missed two games for them- how much worse will they be defensively without him? His likely replacement Jack Payne is tall enough (197cms) but has 27 senior appearances including 12 last year (so not a regular) which places a lot of heavy emphasis on Harris Andrews being the general back there. It's a responsibility I don't think he has shouldered well - but more on him later. The third tall gets covered by the 192cm Gardiner who tries hard, but he's undersized*, the only other options are the similarly undersized Ryan Lester or Darragh Joyce the ex Saints defender whose been thrown a rookie life line. The rest of the defence looks solid and they have good (at time excellent) users of the ball back there but there would be concerns on the ability of the ageing legs of Zorko and Rich and the risk of injury. Starcevich and Coleman are both very, very solid. Connor McKenna is unknown, but his final year before he left Essendon wasn't flash and to me he's all sizzle and no steak as a defender. In short the issue with the Lions defence wasn't using the ball coming out of the fifty it was the ability to stop scores once it got in there - that hasn't been fixed in terms of personnel from what I can see, in fact it's likely to be worse. 3. Scoring hasn't been the Lions problem in the last few seasons, but again the issue for me is who kicks the goals for them. Ostensibly their main man in attack is Charlie Cameron, he's been their leading goal kicker for the last four seasons which begs the question for me as to where the hell are Daniher and Hipwood? For the record only in 2021 did one of them (Joe) kick more than 40 goals in a season for the Lions. They appear to be the mercurial tall forwards who can turn it on, but rarely do it consistently - they certainly aren't dominating like key forwards. Maybe that will be Jack Gunston, the three time leading goal kicker at the Hawks if his back holds up. But Jack is no Dan McStay who also didn't kick many goals for the Lions but he did do a power of work up and down the lines a la Tommy 'Carnivore' McDonald. He isn't a like for like replacement. That puts the heat on one of Daniher or Hipwood to shoulder that burden - and let my bias shine through even more brightly here - I doubt either of them has the ticker for the work load required - not that I've seen anyway. 4. The additions of Dunkley, Ashcroft and Fletcher will make the Lions midfield stronger, but the issue is when. We see that sometimes it takes at least a season even for experienced players to gell with a new side. No pressure on the first year draftees either to step in and do what Nick Daicos did ... Dunkley found himself playing more HFF at the Dogs at the end of last year, he's brave and gets first hands on the ball (260 contested possessions last year). Along with Neale (400 ), McCluggage (216) he makes a more than adequate replacement for Lyons(205) who finds himself relegated. I like Dunkley and the Lions like that he runs both ways - but he does butcher the ball by foot. So here's another interesting stat... Neale and McCluggage were the top two for disposals last year - followed by the 33 year old Rich, the 31 year old Lyons and the 34 year old Zorko - Lyons was also 10th in the competition in terms of clearances (Neale was 2nd and Clarrie was of course 1st) so it might be premature to right Lyons off just yet. Rich and Zorko make sense they are wonderful kicks of the footy, but like I said before... father time. I like Robertson as an option. 5. The positive for me with the Lions is that I like their ruck division, the Big O and Fort should be able to play more time together with five on the bench now. They are both imposing ruckman, and they have adequate coverage. Big O is similar to Max in that he wins a lot of clearances and contested possessions himself and he covers the ground fairly well. I think they're one of very few sides that won't be as worried as others over the thoughts of how the combat the tap brothers. 6. Their most important player. - Given their defensive issues it has to be Harris Andrews. It's a massive problem if he goes down - i've already discussed their lack of cover for defensive talls - the problem I have with Harris is that he seems to have very little lateral deviation when he plays at the moment. He's stuck on tram lines so against more mobile players he's just not the same AA defender we saw a few years ago, but he does organise their defence - which is probably why he looks distracted at times allowing his direct opponent to slip away. I saw signs that he was improving these issues towards the back end of last season - but I think he's even more critical than Lachie Neale to their fortunes because without him the hole in their defensive dyke becomes a massive structural failure. Finally the assumption that I need to challenge for myself is that the Lions will revert to type and will continue to falter against teams that bring the heat and continue to struggle to win away from the Gabbatoire which makes a top 2 finish essential for them to have any realistic shot at a premiership. Yes, they've improved in the midfield (at least on paper at this stage), but I just can't get past that their defence has been their achilles (and let's not forget against Geelong in the Prelim they got pantsed) and will actually be worse this year than in previous years. Premierships are usually won by one of the best three defensive teams and that aint the Lions. I think they could easily be in the top four, but for me I'm tipping them to finish just outside. * yes I know Adams was 192 cms as well, but he was a very good one on one defender who used his body well - he'll be missed.

Actually I did in point 2, but I agree he's important - 2nd in their B&F and maybe they continue to push him up onto a wing but I think he is more a half back, maybe my bias but I don't see him as a genuine winger like Lingers. The class they have tends to be off half back (Dawson, Smith, Milera) and now at half forward with Rankine and Rachele - they need some through the midfield.

Thanks @WERRIDEE, it's good to see what others think of the opposition for the up coming season. I'm going through every team and trying get a handle on their strengths and weaknesses to make my preseason forecasts and this includes challenging the assumptions I hold that could well be a serious case of confirmation bias such is my antipathy for the other 17 teams (vale Fitzroy who were the only team that came close to being my second side). Making my prognostications I try to list the best 18 and then the next 10 best players (most sides will use somewhere around 38-40 players over the course of a season). Typically I disregard 1st year draftees as some like Nick Daicos will be very good, but the overwhelming majority only have cameo moments and are rarely influential on the outcome of where sides finish. I think the starting 18 is just about right - although you could mount an argument for Shane McAdam who came 7th in their B&F to be at least in the 22 if not on the ground. So the draw: They play Brisbane, Port Collingwood, GCS, GWS and West Coast twice. Based on last years form, only the last two I'm counting as gimmes. They have a first up hitout away against the Giants before playing a block of tough matches against top eight aspirants in Richmond, Port, Freo and Carlton before they draw breath against the Hawks in Tassie. They then play Collingwood, the Cats, Dogs, Lions and Suns (away) in the next five weeks. I think its a possibility that they could be 3-10 going into the bye. 1. Darren Burgess- so we know they were significantly fitter last year and I expect that to repeat itself - won't have any problems running games out. 2. Defence seems to have all the right pieces in place with enough spread of age and experience. Worrell is light on for games and I've penciled him in for key position post along with Butts and Doedee who are solid talls, Smith, Dawson, Milera provide good run and quality ball use, and I'm a fan of Nick Murray as a lockdown defender. 3. Rucks. O'Brien is a good ruckman and Thilthorpe is developing well. The only other ruckman is Kieran Strachan who won the Crows SANFL B&F and made the SANFL team of the year, but with only five games to his name, if O'Brien goes down (only missed two games last year when he was dropped) 4. Contested Ball winners. They had two last year (Laird and Keays) that had more than 200 CP(we had 4). I know they were missing Sloane (33 this year and coming back from an ACL) and Crouch is on the outer and it will be interesting to see if he forces his way back in or if his ticket has been punched. They really need a Soligo, Berry or Sholl to really make an impact this year, but I'm not sure they can address this in one season. I know they have high hopes for Luke Pedlar, but he's unlikely to do that after only 5 senior games. I know they were ranked 3rd overall for CPs as a team, but it's a very uneven spread in terms of workload and it's why initially I thought the player they could least afford to lose to injury was Rory Laird. 5. Class - their forward line has it with Rachele and Rankine, but they need it in the midfield - as hard as they work, and tackle they lack big bodies and powerful brutes to break a game open. Keays, Hinge, Berry, Sloane, Schoenberg are all honest players, but I doubt one of them forces their way into a top four midfield - well with the exception of Laird. Anyone that's getting 360 CPs in a season is worth a spot in your midfield. To me the player that sums up Adelaide is Ben Keays. An honest hard worker that gives his all for the team, but in the back of your mind he's the place marker for the classy midfielder you need to draft/trade into the team. The other big problem is the wings... with no Seedsman now they seem to be rather thin in this under-rated department. 6. Their most important player. - initially I had their B&F winner Rory Laird - but I've swapped it to the big Texan. Without him I just don't think their forward line can work. Fogarty made big improvements last year - but without Tex he gets the best defender and Thilthorpe the second best tall - I think it's probably a season too soon for that for both of them. Tex is 33 this year and while there's no reason to believe he can't maintain that form (for some reason tall forwards don't decline as sharply with age as other footballers), the older a player gets the more you worry about how prone they are to getting injured and how long it will take them to recover. Is he due for an on-field injury as opposed to his self-inflicted off-field damage? The assumption I need to challenge is that Adelaide and Matthew Nicks will continue to build on their development over the last three seasons, 3 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins. There'll be high hopes for a 10 - 12 win season. Football trajectories are rarely linear though and I can see a slide on the cards for Adelaide. I have too many concerns to have them winning more than 7-8 games, and if things go really wrong as they could with only the 2nd youngest and 2nd least experienced list in the comp it might be a difficult season for them. I can see a scenario where they finish bottom four, but not one where they finish higher than 10th.

Can anyone explain how Ashton Agar who has played only one first class match this season for only one wicket and averages over 40 with the ball in first class matches was preferred as the second spinner ahead of Swepson or Murphy? Surely they can't be considering him as the second spinner in India.

Brad Scott has come out and clarified expectations with Essendon supporters - they shouldn't expect to see any improvement in the short term as they have a very young list and the need to improve standards... that's coach talk for it's going to get worse before it gets better. It will also be interesting to watch to see who finishes lower on the ladder between North and Hawthorn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Hawks won the spoon.

and importantly was he with the backs or forwards?

Remind me again of who Gill barracks for? 🤔

Also a little unreasonable to expect him to tell the club five minutes after having had a premiership medal hung around his neck to make a decision on his long term future at the club when he's celebrating with his team mates. People seem to have conveniently forgotten that after we courted Cerra, Freo asked for Jackson in exchange and we knocked them back.

The trouble with that is that it’s unlikely to net pick 1 and you risk disrupting the culture by pushing blokes unwillingly out the door ( would you go to North if you were Harmes?)

Looks like he's likely to go #2 behind Ashcroft. Fox Footy that GWS are very keen to get North to split their first for pick 3 and a later first rounder so they can grab him. I think North need him as well and might have second thoughts about splitting their pick particularly if they can get pick 2 from West Coast via Port for JHF.

Freo have to do this deal. They've offered Jackson big money on a long term contract if they can't get it done then it looks bad for them not only in the eyes of Jacko, but Footy managers and other potential targets. I think the footy world in general regards their initial offer as unders, so they need to find a sweetner or they look silly. Freo apparently want to use the Logue F2 pick to get Jeremy Sharp, they also want to hang onto Lobb... they want their cake and eat it too, but mostly it's just posturing.

From what I've heard Haynes' contract is heavily back-ended. He's a very good player, but I suspect that GWS won't salary dump otherwise would be well worth a look.

There's two big issues with Whitfield (assuming he's over running away from ASADA testing). The first is that he's on a massive Brodie Grundy like contract. The second is we'd need to have a thorough medical investigation. He hasn't looked right since coming back from a very serious illness and I'm not sure whether that will impact his footy into the future.

I think I've worked out Peter Bell's approach to trading.... A man walks into a luxury car yard and tells the salesman, "I'll take the red Ferrari" The salesman tells him that will be 250K. Peter Bell opens up his wallet. "I've only got $20 - that will have to do"

Well if he comes to us he'll have to get used to not getting a free for ducking then because we're not the umpires darlings.

Game plan related? Hunt has pace, from what others are saying that is Bowes achilles heel.

Was he? Jon Ralph 'On the Couch' a few weeks ago stated that the club had put a two year deal in front of Jayden.

His step dad is former Port Adelaide player Fabian Francis (also a former Melbourne U19 player I think). I think with everything that is going on at North with Clarkson it is potentially going to end in a bunfight if North dig their heels in and refuse to trade him. Having said that I don't think pick 8 and a future first round pick from a side that played in a prelim final 12 months ago is enough for last year's #1 pick... which is why I think they'll need to trade a player out like Georgiades.

We'll have more leverage next year when he's OOC. I doubt he does a JHF and asks to be traded in-contract.

Maybe we should help Port out and give them one of the first round draft picks we get for Jacko so they can package that up with their existing 1st pick to get JHF. All we'd be looking for in return is Georgiades.

If we're not we should be. I know from a GWS point of view he was offered an extension beyond the standard 2 years he signed as a first round pick. He hasn't signed that extension...

If GWS get what they're asking for for Hopper, Taranto, and Bruhn they'll have six first round picks. I think there's a real good chance they trade out pick 21.

I think Hipwood was taken as a Lions Academy product.

I disagree, Freo aren’t giving up two firsts and a first 18 player for Jackson …. That’s three players for one (albeit now marquee player) it’s just a little too high. Clubs have learnt from the cost/benefit equation of the Judd precedent when bringing in talent. Pick #1 is fair for Dogga, but not for three best 22 players. Similarly without trading the future second North are sliding back from pick 1 but still in the first round this year and are also getting an extra 1st rounder next year and a player who will be their FB for the best part of the next decade. It overvalues what in effect will be pick #2 anyway. Neither Darcy Tucker orBrad Hill and his fat contract are wort a future second rounder. Without that future second rounder (likely pick 19-21) it doesn’t work.

de Goey has signed on at the Filfth for another five years. Zero chance now Grundy doesn’t come to us.