grazman

I feel for Gold Coast supporters, I imagine them watching the Suns and waiting for them to make the finals must be something like being an audience member on the opening night of Samuel Beckett’s play ‘Waiting for Godot’. I think GCS ‘could’ jump into the eight (and I think they might for periods) but ultimately I think they will fall just short which is why I’ve picked them for 9th as the close, but not close enough team for 2023. Firstly the draw. Now the Suns are actually turning into something resembling a decent footy team it looks pretty good on paper They play Brisbane, Carlton, Sydney, St Kilda, Adelaide and North twice. Given where I think those sides will finish I think there’s at minimum 7 wins in there for the Suns and we should know as early as round 6 whether they are on track to make their first finals outing with difficult, but winnable matches at home early against the Swans and Cats as well as North, and trips on the road against the Dons, Saints and Freo in Adelaide for the Gather Round. The biggest issue I think with the Suns is their defence. They coughed up 100 point games to the opposition seven times in 2022 and losing six of those games. Collins, Ballard, Swallow, Lemmens, and Weller back from an ACL are all gritty and dour triers – they’ll throw Long back there to add to that group, but the only really classy ball user they have back there is Lukosius who I’m very undecided on. With more size and competitive juices he’d be playing forward or in the midfield, but he’s playing back for his kicking ability, but last year wasn’t his best only going at 60.8% which was a dramatic drop off. Maybe having Wil Powell back this year (his career kicking % is 73.5 compared to Jack’s 69.2) helps improve that aspect by taking some of the pressure of Jack. The starting midfield is strong for the Suns, but the depth is questionable. Witts is a very capable ruckman who gets a good chop out from Chol who delivers as a genuine forward/ruck option. Miller, Rowell and Anderson are all top shelf and get adequate support from Fiorini, Ellis and Holman. They’ll be hopeful that Sharp can come on to hold down a wing, but the other wing is an issue. You just get the feeling that along with the Bowes contract, the Atkins contract will comeback to haunt them for someone that has struggled to establish themselves in the Suns midfield – which shouldn’t have been an issue for someone signed on a five year contract. People should be realistic on how much influence King will have on his return from an ACL, but it poses an interesting problem for the Suns whether to go taller by keeping the stop-gap Casboult who was very good last season in the same side with Chol and King. They have some reasonable medium options like Sexton, Jeffery, and Stein who was picked up as a rookie from GWS (to replace Corbett) if they decide for a more defensive forward line, but will need more out of their other small forwards now Rankine has left – it’s probably the one area of need where they need to recruit for in the future. Overall I’m bullish about the Suns, but can still see enough holes on the list to leave them just out of the eight. 9thseems about right.

Let's call a spade a spade with the Saints, they’re not a contender even with Ross Lyon returning and make no mistake the Saints list for 2023 is nothing like their list from 2007 or Freo’s list in 2012 when he had pretty much all the pieces he needed to contend for a flag. From 2017-2019 the Saints sold the basis of their future success for football’s equivalent of magic beans. Hannebery, Carlisle, Kent, Butler, Hill, Jones, Ryder (Crouch was a RFA)- you could mount an argument why each of them might have helped them at the point in time they were at, but collectively the end result has left a train wreck. You can salvage the names of Jack Steele and Dougal Howard as being successes from that period (no I’m not buying into the argument that Hill might be eventually), but it’s relative – what it’s cost them in the end was far more than what they thought they were paying… but enough of history. The back six looks solid with Coffield back up and running, Howard, Sinclair, Wilkie and WM are all very capable and Battle, Webster and Highmore provide good support. The issue will be that the ball will be coming in there far too often for them to stem the tide. They have no ruck depth and very little in the way of midfield depth either. The starting midfield of Steele, Crouch and Ross looks pretty pedestrian to me. The Saints fans are big raps for Jade Gresham, but he’s still got a bit of ground to make up if he wants to be compared to the likes of Martin, Petracca and Bontempelli in his ability to influence games (he’s only ever had four games where he’s got 30 touches or more). The problems for the start of the year is that King leaves a massive hole in their ability to score, and considering Lyon’s ‘defence first’ coaching philosophy they will struggle to kick winning scores. They’ll take comfort from the performances of guys like Windhager, Owens, and Phillipou, but it won’t be enough to win games consistently and ‘Ross the Boss’ will need to conjure a rabbit out of a hat to keep them out of the bottom four. For me it was hard to split them and West Coast, but I’ve pencilled them in for 13th.

The footy world seems united in its view on the Eagles. They aren’t a contender, though they could push for a top 8 spot, but to do that they need all their best players out on the park, and from recent history and their age profile that would seem a very unlikely outcome. Last season the Eagles were the only team not to have a single player play in every match, in 2021 they had five: Cole, Nic Nat, Sheed, Darling and Cripps. Last season Cole (0) Nic Nat (8) and Sheed (1) didn’t really give a yelp playing wise which helps explain why they nosed dived from 9th with 10 wins to 17th with 2. Even if they address the injury woes, and surely they have realistic expectations on the number of games you can get out of blokes 33 years and older such as Shuey, Hurn and Nic Nat, then there are still a few systemic issues in the Eagles list that point to a list in transition. Outside of their 2018 premiership players (of which only 12 remain) their recruitment of Tim Kelly has cost them a massive amount of capital put into one midfielder who can't beat a tag and restricted their ability to access other talent. They do have 13 players aged 23-26, but only Oscar Allen could be considered a lock in their best side with maybe Rotham, and maybe Bailey Williams in time. SPS, Jarmain Jones and Witherden are all recycled and Connor West still sits on the rookie list - but they're there for the short term to fill the gaps. Speaking of Oscar Allen, he didn’t play a match last season which hurt them. If he comes back to fulfil the potential he showed in breaking into the Eagles B&F top 10 in 2021 it will be into a forward line missing Kennedy and Rioli making his job that much harder with increased expectations. It's the midfield for me though that the real issues become apparent. A fully fit Elliot Yeo will be welcomed back, but Gaff is a shadow of what he was and Redden is no longer there. Even with Sheed back to support Shuey and Kelly I think they are a bottom two midfield who will need to blood a lot of kids in there as they begin the rebuild. They have high hopes for players like Ginbey, Hewett, Chesher, Hough and Burgiel, but it’s way too soon to be counting those chickens yet. Initially I bought into the bullishness of Westcoast bouncing back, but I struggle to see them winning games consistently (particularly away from Optus) and have them pegged to finish around 14th.

The draw – well it’s Collonwood right so you know they’re going to get a charmed run. They play Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Port, Essendon and Adelaide twice. They do have six interstate trips, but one of those is for the ‘gather round’ where they play the Saints, but they do have to front up to the Crows at AO off a five day break following Anzac Day. They do have some harder matches at the back end of the season so it will be interesting to see how they are fixtured. Watch this space. 1. I’m expecting the Pies to slide this year, not a massive amount, I think they’ll still make the finals but won’t be a top 4 contender -so here’s why I’m expecting a side that has added to three areas (McStay, Mitchell and Hill) to slip behind where they were last year. Firstly if you can find an article from Max Laughton on the Fox Footy site (7th Feb) on Pythagorean prediction of wins it makes a good argument for why the Pies are unlikely to go 7 wins from 10 games decided by a goal or less this season. Not exactly lucky last year, but not necessarily replicable either – according to the article we’re more likely to see a reversion to the mean given the same situation again and the Pies to go closer to 5&5 or maybe 3 & 7 to square the ledger. There’s thin margins there for Craig McRae to work with based on how close a lot of their games were in 2022 and they’ll need to improve because the rest of the competition now has had a good look and worked out how they play and will have counter tactics to employ. 2. The midfield is not as strong as it appears. I compared each of the finalists from last year with their best 4 centre square starting combinations in terms of total number of games, Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings. I was selective in adding Tom Mitchell for Pendlebury – Collingwood ranked 6th in terms of total games, 7th for Brownlow and Coaches votes and 8th for AFL rankings. (Melbourne by the way ranked 4th for total games but 1st for Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings). It maybe that Daicos and De Goey give them some X factor in there, but in terms of midfield depth it’s lacking which is why Pendles had to roll through there far more last year than a 34 year old should. The fact that 3 of their top 5 in their B&F are 32 and over is a concern. Nick Daicos will obviously be a star, but it's a big load to shoulder at the moment for a guy in only his second season. 3. They lost Ollie Henry a player they would have ideally liked to have kept and Brodie Grundy a player they couldn’t afford to keep in the offseason. It’s made the list substantially weaker even with the additions of McStay and Mitchell. Moore has had an interrupted preseason due to a bone infection and De Goey decided to delay his off-season surgery until after his holiday. Not an ideal start in terms of preparation for a list that needs a lot to go right to back up last year. There’s a lot of pressure on Cameron to stay fit given that Mason Cox has a large question mark on his ability to be the main ruck. Yes he gives them a tall forward option as well, but only 7 goals in 18 games last year and a career average of under 9 hitouts a game wouldn’t offer any comfort if Darcy goes down. I like their defence, it’s unheralded and unfashionable, but it does the job, largely due to the 203cm 2020 AA defender in Darcy Moore – now their captain. He gets good service from Murphy and Maynard and Jeremy Howe plays the intercepting role as well as anyone, Quaynor has taken his time, but has come on well. Similarly their forward line is workmanlike with the likes of Mihocek, Elliot and now McStay. They’ll do a power of running to make it work, but the unknowns will be where Ginnivan will be at given his indiscretion and whether De Goey can perform at a consistent level (why start now). They have high hopes for Bobby Hill, but it would be a break out year for him if he could deliver a goal a game and a dozen possessions, something he’s never done in his 4 seasons at the Giants. Overall I think the Pies are well coached and play aggressive fearless football, it will be interesting to see if that unravels a bit this year once sides do their homework in the offseason. I think the last 6 in their best 22/23 is pretty weak in comparison to other sides and they need the youth to step up again for them if they are to take the pressure of the aging Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe. I’ve picked them to finish 7th.

The draw - 7 of their first 9 matches are in Victoria (at the MCG or GMHBA) which will help the old legs in their squad with only trips to Metricon and then to Adelaide for the 'Gather Round' to play West Coast before Rd 10. They do have 5 six day breaks though in that first 9 rounds which may or may not be a factor depending on any niggles with their senior citizens. I think they''ll have a solid enough start but AFL.com assessed them as having the equal hardest draw and playing Sydney, Collingwood, Freo, Port and the Bulldogs twice which makes it significantly harder than last year, but all those return matches bar the Pies are at GMHBA and of course they play us there as well - they do have to square off against Carlton and Richmond at the G though and I think both of those teams will challenge for the top 4. 1. While they have the oldest list, it's also the most experienced and I don't expect the fall off the cliff unless there are significant games lost by Hawkins (possible he's got a foot complaint and will miss the start of the season at least) and the other 32 and over older players: Touhy, Blicavs, Stanley, Smith, Duncan and Dangerfield. I think their support cast is solid without being spectacular and they seem thin in particular for depth in the key positions even though they didn't really need them last year. It will be interesting to see whether the AFL world continues to laud their management approach after this year. With the exception of Ceglar and Jack Henry they never really had too many injuries to senior players so were able to keep the best 22 together for long periods. It might be harder for them to rest players the way they did last season with blocks of harder games in a row this year especially at the back end of the season where only St Kilda in the second last round looks easy on paper. 2. They've got a good cohesive defence. – the third best in 2022 (though there was only a goal separating all three). Stewart is elite, and De Koning might be by the end of the season as well and Henry can do the job on the third tall. Then there’s always Blicavs they can swing back there. The smaller players (with maybe the exception of Touhy) in Bews, Zac Guthrie, and Kolodjashni go about their job with a minimum of fuss and fanfare and they have the luxury of being able to throw Atkins back there if needed. Like all good defensive sides they also rely on their midfield being able to fold back to provide support, including their rucks. It will be an interesting watch this year to see if they can maintain that work rate. 3. I think of all the lines the one area of concern for the Cats is their midfield. That may seem odd given they’ve added Bowes and Bruhn, but only lost Selwood -whose on field direction and work in close they’ll miss. They’ll still have a very strong first string on ball brigade in Duncan, Guthrie, Atkins and Dangerfield, in the middle and Smith and Holmes to lock in on the wings – (though they’re experimenting with Holmes as an inside mid). The issue for me (and I do love mids that get first hands on the ball) is that while they’re an elite defensive side, they’re a very ordinary CP side, though strangely they had 5 players get over 200 CP for the year: Guthrie 245, Blicavs 213, Danger 210, Atkins 209 and Selwood 204. It tells me there’s a lot of heavy lifting in there by only a few – one of whom has retired and two are 32 & 33. It will be interesting to see if they continue to use O’Connor in a lockdown role (who only averages 13 possessions for 82% TOG) or run with a more creative mid in that position. Their rucks (Stanley and Ceglar) are serviceable, but they aren’t in any conversations as match winners. 4. The fortunes of their forward line rest very much on the shoulders of Tom Hawkins who provides the structure they need. Jezza isn’t that player – he’s a good second foil and he’s crucial in his own right, but his effectiveness is curtailed when Tom isn’t there. With Stengle and Ollie Henry (who I think will replace Rohan) they have plenty of goals scoring options while Miers and Close play their roles as good as anyone. The only question mark is whether father time (for Hawkins) or injuries (dodgy hammies for Jezza) disrupt their season. 5. The elephant in the room is age, while they rewrote history to win the premiership last year with the oldest list in AFL/VFL history - logic would say that its highly unlikely they will have the same good fortune twice in a row (you do need luck on your side to win a premiership) and as our experience last year demonstrated it's tough to back up particularly as you get older. I expect them to win enough games to finish top four but am hoping they run out of petrol tickets come the finals. 5. The player they can least afford to lose – I actually can’t pick just one. I think there are four which might not be such a good sign for the Cats: Hawkins, Cameron, Blicavs and Stewart. I was tempted to say five with Danger who for me the lynchpin of the midfield but I think they can sort of cover him, but given how critical the other four are to their structure they can't afford any on them to be watching from the stands. For Chris Scott and how he coaches it is all about structure - well it is for most coaches, but he’s super reliant on having those players available – particularly when they play at the MCG. Last year of a possible 25 matches they played respectively: 25, 24, 24 and 20 (Stewart’s suspension didn’t really cost them in the end). The Cats will obviously be there and thereabouts again and I think they’re good enough to finish 2nd at the end of the H&A. Injuries will be critical to their fortunes as they are for most teams, but with their age profile i'm expecting them to be more disruptive this season than last.

OK here’s one for the superstitious amongst us to watch as the season unfolds. Currently both Melbourne and Richmond are on the second line of betting after the premiers. The market can’t split them. That puts us and the Tiges in the gun for a top 3 finish. The last three times the Tigers won the premiership they did it all three times from third. Melbourne are 9 from 10 having won the minor premiership… watch this space. Well firstly the draw their draw is ranked equal 6th hardest along with ours, but it’s got a lot of unknowns in there: they play Us, the Swans and Bulldogs twice as the only finalists from last year, but they also play Port, Saints and Eagles twice as well and there’s some doubt over whether they can all get their 2021 mojo back - or are they all on the slide? I certainly think the Tigers can get their mojo back though and it would be a mistake to think that this side is finished as a contender. Most of their matches appear evenly spaced in terms of competitive sides and there’s 13 games at the G and 3 at Marvel. Other than the second round against the Crows, they have no other 5 day breaks before the bye. 1. As stated, I have three sides locked in my top three- two I consider to be among the best defensive teams in the competition the other is the Tigers, whose defensive record last year definitely pales in comparison. They missed Grimes (8 games), Balta (4), Vlaustin (5) when they were needed as well having to rely on a very young Josh Gibcus to shoulder the load. I think they're susceptible down back due to the age and injury history of the likes of three above, but their support cast of Gibcus (injury interrupted preseason), Rioli, Broad, Short and Balta is solid and they've got games into Miller who should continue to develop. While I don't expect them to be impenetrable like they were a few years ago, I think they could be better defensively this year than they were in 2022 where they coughed up in excess of 90 points a game 9 times with 5 losses over 100 points. 2. As for their midfield they've spent big and got what they needed for now. Taranto (whose had a full preseason for the first time since he won the Giants B&F in 2019 when they made the GF) and Hopper who I rate highly will help get first hands on the ball. Both are serious additions to the one problem area of the ground that was always hampered by injury for the Tigers of late (as recently seen in their EF loss to Brisbane). It means there's less reliance on Prestia and Cotchin (who came 6th in their B&F last year) who will play predominantly forward this year. Add in Bolton and Baker who are coming into their prime as footballers and make their midfield/forward line super dangerous. It probably means regulars in previous season like Pickett and Castagna might need to show some serious form or they play twos. Prestia being available is a bonus now rather than a necessity. 3. The X factor of course is Dusty. I think he’ll bounce back and in a big way. The effect of his dad dying shouldn't be discounted on his season last year – he’ll be driven to make up for last year and along with Bolton swapping between the midfield and forward line it’s a nightmare for any defensive coach to contemplate. Throw in B&F winner and almost Coleman Medallist Tom Lynch with a capable support cast of Rioli, Riewoldt, Cotchin (probably) and there’s a fair bit of experience down there, not hard to see why they were the #1 scoring team at the end of the H&A. They might not have a top three defensive outfit anymore, but it’s going to take one to put the brakes on them going all the way. The player they can least afford to lose for mine is Tom Lynch. He is critical to them going all the way, without him I don't think they can because Jack Riewoldt simply can't be that player from five years ago before Tom arrived to lighten the load. I don't think Cumberland has enough exposed form to judge whether he's up to it yet or a flash in the pan similar to the purple patch young forwards sometimes have (Jake Riccardi). As good as their mid sized and small forwards are (critical to winning a premiership) you have to make a GF first and without a tall forward structure that becomes almost impossible. I’m picking them to finish 3rd. I think they’ll get a lot of sides this year, but their defence just isn’t where it needs to be.

I've reassessed the above view based on a conversation I had recently and I think the Swans will slip out of the eight altogether. It was put to me that every year a top four side from the previous season slides out of the eight... That's not quite correct, but it's close - since 1996 of the teams that finished in the top 4 at the end of the H&A, 19 times (twice in 2000) they have failed to play finals the following year. Not quite a given, but still statistically significant. There's obviously a bunch of factors why that happens to sides, but coinciding with the point I made above about sides getting belted in GFs - I think it's more likely than unlikely the Swans slide signficantly this year. Here's three factors why that could happen. 1. I mentioned Rampe above and his significant downturn in output compared to previous seasons. He could bounce back particularly if it was based around an injury that meant he could play, but not at his best, but if it's age based then... 2. Paddy McCartin. The elephant in the room is his concussion history. We all hope that it doesn't happen, but it is a contact sport and any type of concussion means he misses significant weeks - if Rampe can't get back to his previous form then it makes for a worst case scenario for Horse in how to shore up his key defensive options. 3. I probably glossed over this in the analysis above - but the pragmatic side of me says even though Buddy was the leading goal scorer for the Swans last season he's just about cooked. He's still a capable goal scorer 52 goals in 23 games from your key forward most sides would take in a heartbeat. He kicked 15 goals in 6 games against defensive sides ranked 6-9 and he's enormous in terms of the structural make up of their forward half. The real worry for the Swans and no prizes here for putting two and two together - is his output against the best defensive sides. Against the four best defences in the competition he kicked 6 goals in 6 games (that includes 4 he kicked against the Cats in Rd 2). Against the best defensive team last year (us) he kicked none in both matches. It's a rod the Swans have made for their own back, they can try to manage him given the fatigue his 36 y.o. frame would be suffering, but it really isn't a fitness issue it's an age issue. He just can't do what he used to.

The market has North pegged as a bottom 2 side, and admittedly I did too until i took a closer look at their list and their draw and I now think that they could actually win somewhere between 6-8 matches this year. That might even be enough to drag them out of the bottom four... bat [censored] crazy you say... allow me to explain. Someone at AFL house has a perverse sense of humour. It's always difficult with the vagaries of the draw based on where they finished the year before rather than what they are capable of the next year, but last season North had to play the eventual Grand Finalists twice each (bummer) and also GCS who improved markedly while the Hawks and Crows remained stable and didn't slide. This year they play the following teams twice: the Hawks (Hello Alistair meet Sam the man that wanted your job) Dons (Brad meet Alistair the man who didn't want your job), Saints (Alistair do you know Ross?) Eagles (like North coming off a 2 win season), Suns and Us (bummer). On paper at least you'd think just from those encounters alone and when they play them that there's a good chance that they could win 4-5 of those 12 matches. Then there's matches in Hobart against the Giants and Suns. There's also the David Noble factor last year - and this isn't kicking a bloke when he's down, but it was impossible to know last year exactly whether North had failed to meet the low bar from 2021 because of the list or the coach, but I think there's some very good reasons to think they'll bounce back this year. The first is that whilst many are looking at the kids and saying they're too green they'll add 752 games of experience this season in Cunnington, Shiels, Howe, Logue, & Tucker that will play the majority of games to stiffen up the side. Simpkin, LDU, Powell, Phillips, Sheezel, and Wardlaw are all talents as you'd expect from first round draft picks. While players like Greenwood, Hall, Corr, and Bonar might not play in a contending side they can all play a role if needed. Tarryn Thomas hurts, but not too much considering they're coming off a low base. The obvious weakness for me now they have Logue to stiffen their defence is in attack. They need another tall like Comben to come on to support Larkey and Zurhaar, and while Mahony and Lazzaro are busy smalls they lack the genuine class that they need to be truly effective. When I compare North on paper I think they are better on paper than both Hawthorn and Essendon and could easily get over both West Coast and St Kilda at the right time of year depending on injuries. They have the ability to surprise sides - and I'm tipping them to finish 15th.

Drew is definitely their defensive mid he was #1 for tackles at Port and does a lot of blocking/minding of the oppositions most dangerous mid. Coincidentally I spoke to a friend who barracks for them and gets a lot of good inside goss. The Power intend to have at least one experienced mid start in the square with two of the younger mids. This will mainly be Wines or Boak (who will rest forward) and maybe SPP and supports my theory about Travis Boak still being their most important player. He thought if Finlayson wasn't available they may opt use SPP in a similar role to Shaun Grigg at the Tigers as the undersized ruckman, but thought against sides like us and Freo they may play Lycett and Hayes in tandem, but this wouldn't be the norm. He also mentioned Fantasia (who I'd completely forgotten about - quite understandable given he has barely played the last two seasons) as maybe their Joker in the pack if he can stay on the park - but that's a big IF.

I'm going against the grain here, I think it might be a year or two too early for Port return to the eight. but here we go: The draw: - of all the teams the Power have the most interesting draw because you have to ask yourself if lightning will strike twice? They play the Pies, Cats, Tigers, Bulldogs and Dons twice with the obligatory two showdowns scheduled in. Of course having the ‘gather round’ in Adelaide gives them an extra home game. Last year thanks to the absence of Charlie Dixon they started the season 0-5 before rebounding strongly against the Eagles in Rd 6 and having the ledger square at 8-8 before dropping four games in a row to contenders: Us, the Cats, Tigers and Pies. This year they start the season against their bogey team the Lions who they haven’t beaten since 2018 when Brisbane won only 5 games for the year – since then it’s been all Lions, they then travel to the MCG to play the Pies before a Rd 3 showdown the same match they lost last year, then it’s the Swans at the SCG and Dogs at home in the gather round before a rd 6 match at home against none other than the Eagles. The fascinating watch though is their tough run home – similar to last year. In the last six rounds they play five likely contenders in Carlton(H), Collingwood(H), Geelong (GMHBA), Freo (A) and Richmond (H). You have the feeling that if they haven’t at least got 10 wins on the board by then it’ll be curtains for Kenny even if they scrape into the eight. 1. Will lightning strike twice then? Well I don’t think the Power will start the season 0-5 and while initially I was trying to mount an argument that could conceivably see them get back to their 2021 form and play off in a Prelim, I’ve come to the conclusion that the back end of the draw might be a bridge too far for Kenny to get an extension. On paper they just aren’t as good as they were in 2021. They’ve lost key planks to their first choice side: Robbie Gray (irreplacable) Amon (haven’t recruited a like for like to run that wing) and Motlop (I’ll happily concede that Rioli probably has this one covered). The other issue is Finlayson who was a revelation last year in the ruck has a syndesmosis injury to start the season and has more pressing personal matters to attend to anyway putting a question mark on his availability. That's offset by Lycett returning, but with five on the bench you get the feeling Jeremy was in the 23 so when you look at their best side there are still question marks. 2. So the first question mark is Duursma, does he get back to his 2019/2021 form or do we see the 2020/2022 version? It’s an odd year so he should be alright… but if he isn’t then the midfield depth and particularly the coverage on the wing becomes an issue. Secondly the next question mark is on whether any of the plethora of HBF they have can step up to fill the void on the other wing. Trent Dumont who is still on the Rookie list might be given a shot first, but he finished out last season in the SANFL so they might opt for one of Burton, Jones DBJ or Bonnor– probably not Farrell or Houston who will stay back. The next question mark is if Finlayson isn’t available they only have Hayes with 7 games with any senior rucking experience, it also makes them a little top heavy for big men when they'd prefer a more mobile option - trouble is they really haven't got any of those that aren't already in the side. Do they play both he and Lycett together or throw Dixon into the ruck… hmmm something the 33 y.o. probably wouldn’t relish. 3. Defensively the Power weren’t in the top three sides, but they were in the next tier. They have very capable talls in AA, Jonas & Cleury and capable coverage from McKenzie and Houston. As already stated they have no shortage of running HBFs to chose from including Josh Sinn champing at the bit to get his opportunity. They only conceded 100 points three times last year with strangely their worst loss of the year being in Rd 2 when they were jumped by the Hawks at home. No the issue for Port isn’t their defence it’s their scoring options. Nine times last year the Power failed to score more than 10 goals in a game. Clearly Dixon injured hampered that, but it was the lack of contribution from any small forwards that hurt – no pressure Willie! 4. Games are won and lost in the midfield and I really like the plan they’ve got in place at Port for their midfield. They’ll be hoping Butters is over his ankle and knee issues, Rozee is all class and they have Wines, JHF and Drew as the big bodies to do the bullocking work. It’s hard to know where to place SPP who resurrected himself last year pushing forward into what looked like a high HFF role, but he’s in the mix along with the promising Mead and Burgoyne who Port supporters think will play the majority of the 23 H&A games. After writing all that though I’m still left questioning if overall they just aren’t a bit too inexperienced to be a top contender this season. Only Boak, Wines Lycett and SPP have played more than 100 games*. By contrast nearly all Melbourne’s mids – Gawn, Grundy, Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Harmes, Hunter and Langdon have played over 100 games. Even Dunstan as the depth inside mid has. The only exceptions are Sparrow and JJ. The player they can least afford to lose – you’d think given they were winless without Charlie until rd 6 that it would be him – except they did win 5 of their next 6 without him as well (admittedly against pretty poor teams) his final W/L for the year was 6-6. No - the man they can least afford to lose is none other than the 34 (turning 35) Travis Boak – the guy that came 2nd in their B&F last year, was 2nd in disposals, CP, UP, and Tackles, was 1st in clearances, score assists, score involvements, and I50s. He’s their Mr Everywhere and while Ollie has a Brownlow and Connor the 2022 B&F if Travis doesn’t play the chances of Power winning (particularly when they can’t hear the strains of INXS reverberating through the empty cranial cavities in the AO) are markedly decreased. Overall I think at their best the Power can make the eight, but a lot would have to have a lot go right for them and at least another 3 contenders have every thing go wrong even to sneak into the four. I think it’s more likely they continue to slide and finish around where they did last year. I *other than maybe Duursma it’s hard to factor in their wings until we see how they line up in rd 1.

Yep we're mentally shot - and why would you have any self-belief anyway when you've done bugger all preparation? The difference between winning and losing in professional sport comes down to a combination of talent and the little advantages you can squeeze out of a better understanding of the local conditions - that's providing the attitude and application are the same for both players/sides- when they're not - you don't even need that much talent! It's why the Langer situation will continue to raise it's head - particularly if the Ashes don't go well. It was all about attitude and application under Justin and that can rightly be questioned under the Macdonald/Cummins stewardship based on what we've seen.

Yep, the album cover is a classic: "The album's front cover features a photograph of bassist Paul Simonon smashing his Fender Precision Bass (now on display at the Museum of London, formerly Cleveland Rock and Roll Hall of Fame) against the stage at the Palladium in New York City on 20 September 1979." The avatar is actually a painting by Banksy - it channels two of my favourite anti-establishment artists.

The story from Nagpur was that they had Agar pencilled in for the first test, but because he was bowling so poorly in the nets and Murphy was bowling so well they picked Murphy - similar story to Travis Head who looked all at sea in the nets so was dropped in effect for Renshaw ( I think Handscomb was going to play anyway as a RH). My concern with Cummins as the captain is that he's tentative, he's slow to recognise when he needs to make bowling changes and the game drifts along and India creep another 30 or so runs ahead. The old adage you do the thing the opposition least wants you to seems to elude him. I do think he's a little constrained though by his some of the fields that Lyon sets - for a bloke that's taken 450 test wickets - he still sets very defensive fields - compare that to Warnie and the very attacking fields he used to set. Anyway I'm hoping that Cameron Green is fit for the next test - if so I'd drop Renshaw and open with Head again and play all three spinners again - i'm actually not fussed if they play Agar as the third spinner with Head in the side, if he bowls poorly then don't bowl him, but at least it might stiffen the tail a little. If Cummins isn't back from his dash home in time for the third test I'd bring in Boland again - I don't see much value in picking Starc who has an ordinary record over there anyway.

I probably see more of the Giants than a lot of Melbourne supporters being based here in Canberra. The trouble is they look like a good side on paper, but they just aren't delivering the goods. A regular criticism I've seen from a few unkindly suggest (but perhaps not unfairly) that they seem to play without spirit. The joke I have with a GWS supporting friend is me asking him who kicked three goals in the 2019 GF - I made the point in the Best 44 for Sydney that a bad GF loss can leave some pretty deep psychological scars - and I think that's what we're seeing with the Giants. After 'that' loss they've finished 10th, 6th (the dead cat bounce), and 16th. They've well and truly dropped off the perch. I don't consider GWS a contender, but I think like West Coast that their best might be good enough to push them close to a spot in the eight. The big question mark is can they sustain it for long enough to do that - and I'm saying no they probably can't. There's simply too much to do - They need Phil Davis to play more than he has in the last two years (11&5 matches), but his injury history suggests he's cooked. Himmelberg looked good in defence, but Kingsley wants him to play forward to address the problems there, and players like Riccardi and Buckley that looked good back in 2021 seem to be lost in no man's land. Then there's the likes of Kelly and Whitfield - what Giants supporters wouldn't give for them to have even 10% of Toby's competitiveness. If you take a short term look at history you'd think they won't miss Hopper and Taranto, but if you take a closer look and realise they only played 7 & 16 games respectively and then look at 2021 when they finished 3rd and 4th in the B&F and the Giants finished 6th you'll realise they leave a massive hole that they simply won't be able plug this season. They'll miss Toby Bedford too, because there were high hopes he'd deliver more than Bobby Hill managed to do in his 41 game, 34 goal time at the Giants. It means that they'll have to cycle plenty of youth and NQRs through the side and I think that points to a similar position on the ladder to last year. It was time for Leon to go, and McVeigh found that it was probably easier being an assistant than working out how to turn a team of individual performers into a cohesive footy team pulling in the same direction. Maybe Adam Kingsley is that man, but it won't be in 2023.

We are in furious agreement. I don't like 20/20 at all and I don't watch BBL so it's an easy target for me to criticise anyway, but I think the whole thing is completely contrived and rewards bat makers over producing real cricketers - I mean when was the last time someone like Adam Zampa even played red ball cricket? They're trying to out baseball, baseball so to speak. The ch 7 news tonight made that exact point that there was no lead up practice matches because CAs priority was having the test stars available for the business end of the BBL given the $ they'd been given. So it's 100% on CA that they've prioritised commercial aspects over attaining success overseas - which is either extremely arrogant or extremely short-sighted depending on your perspective. Like you said I don't think it would matter that much as we are so poor at playing spin here in Australia - but at least try to give yourself the best chance by preparing properly. Don't get me started on this rubbish that has crept into commentary either that you can't hit against the spin. Of course you can so long as you aren't trying to plunder the attack by playing expansive cross bat shots. The Indian batsmen showed exactly how you do it by moving down the pitch and hitting the ball on the full or low half volley and importantly with a straight bat - it appears we learnt nothing from chasing leather off Laxman and Dravid! There-in lies another problem you identified, when you are playing on roads in Australia you don't really need to learn to use your feet anymore which is a batting skill in itself. I also think the Aussie media fed into the whole issue by highlighting the Nagpur pitch which spooked the horses in the Australian Brains trust... really they've produced a spin friendly pitch in India - you don't say - what exactly were they preparing for -green tops? Completely unsportsmanlike to prepare pitches that favour the home side, never happens anywhere else in world cricket! Anyway onto the Ashes - there was talk of using a Duke ball in the second half of the shield series, but I'm not sure it ever came to much. Hopefully some of our bowlers have at least been practicing in the nets with some. I think it's crucial to have line and length bowlers over there which is why I'd be picking Boland and Hazelwood ahead of Starc. Anyway I won't go into selection too much - it's all over the shop and no part of me understands how Agar got a test in Sydney based on the one first class wicket he'd taken in only one first class match for the year... no way does that happen even 20 years ago - just ridiculous.

Possibly, though I don't think I am. Callum does a lot of unobtrusive things that often go unnoticed and Chad does a lot of exciting things in terms of speed and evasiveness. Warner made 97 tackles last year which shows he does have a defensive side, but Mills laid 156 which probably explains why he won their B&F and Chad came second. Mills was also AA so there's that as well - so I think he's their best mid. Neither can be replaced really, but I think they rely more on Mills than Warner - certainly Mills has him covered in terms of kicking efficiency.

Couldn't agree more Macca. I just wonder if the CA brains trust were seduced by the idea of 'Bazz Ball', but completely misunderstood the concept (yes take risks - but stay within your wheel house). Cummins response in the presser was completely unconvincing i'm afraid. I'm not completely giving up on the Ashes if they pick the right team.

The draw is tough for the Swans as it should be for a side that made the GF the previous year. Of the sides they play twice; Us, Geelong, Freo and Richmond will give them a stern test and GCS look a lot stiffer opposition than in previous years which leaves just the underwhelming GWS as the likely gimme. It’s an even split to start the year with away matches in the first half to the bye in rd 12 against GCS, Us, Richmond (at AO before playing them at the MCG in rd 17), Cats at GMHBA, and Collingwood. 1. Sides that lose heavily in the GF usually take some time to bounce back. I’ve heard some in the media say that Sydney is different, they have such a great culture that they’ll recover quickly without the attendant mental scarring that other sides have had. This to me doesn’t seem to have any real basis other than wishful thinking, nor does it address the underlying reason why they got pole-axed by 81 points in a completely lop-sided contest in the first place. For the record here is a list of sides beaten by more than 45 points in Grand Finals since 2000 and where they finished the following year: 2021, the Dogs (74 pts) 8th. 2019, GWS (89 pts) 10th, 2017, Adelaide (48pts) 12th, 2015 West Coast (46 pts) 7th, 2014 Sydney (53 pts) 5th, 2007, Port (119 pts) 13th, 2003, Collingwood (56 pts) 13th and 2000 – us (60 pts) 11th. So based on recent history there’s a better than even chance the Swans don’t even make the eight and very little to no chance they bounce back into the four. I understand this tells the story of what has happened previously not what will necessarily happen this season, but I think the Swans continue the trend and here’s why: 2. Defence. There’s a problem with the smalls there’s too many of them: 194, 193 (McCartins) and 187 (Rampe) those are the heights of the Swans key defenders. (Correspondingly our KPD heights are 194, 193 and 197). Yes they were the fourth best defence in 2022 with very similar numbers to Port Adelaide, but when it matters on the bigger grounds those smaller KPD had a torrid time with the taller forwards – more tellingly Rampe had probably his career worst year despite playing every game. Career lows in disposals, marks, meters gained, rebound 50s, Intercept possessions and 0 coaches votes for the first time in his career. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised because he’s 33 this year, but 187cm when you’re party trick is in decline is just too short to play Key Position. The next best option they have is the Lizard who stands taller than all of them at 196, but they want to release him in a running role (providing his season isn’t derailed by glandular fever). There’s the 192cm Aaron Francis and the Swans have a good history of turning other clubs trash into their treasure, but 54 games in 4 seasons with only 4 last year isn’t anything to be sanguine about- so it might be Melican who is 194cm but out of favour. I have a feeling they will need a replacement this year. With the exceptions of GWS (though Cadman may still grow) and West Coast every club has a KPF at least 197cm or taller and many have two. 3. They had a great season in attack last year, but Buddy was still their leading goal scoarer, though Heeney, Heywood and Papley are great foils. The issue as exposed in the GF is their other KPF Sam Reid is injury prone. He averages only 15 games a year and has only played one full season since 2016 and at 32 I think its more likely than not that trend continues. Logan McDonald looks OK, but only in combination with Buddy and Sam and really doesn’t take many contested marks. Maybe they experiment with Ladhams/McLean as the third tall resting ruck, but I think they’re easily covered by a good defence. 4. The midfield is very blue collar and they did a good job last year as evidenced by Mills, Warner, Rowbottom and Parker filling out the top 4 places in their B&F. Maybe that’s a little unfair on Mills who was AA last year – but tellingly it was on the wing and not in the guts. He’s good, just not Clarrie, Neale or Cripps good. What they lack though is a blue chip power mid that pushes forward and kicks goals like a Dusty, Tracc or Bont. It might be a perception thing as well, but I also think other than Parker there’s no real big bodies in there. This isn’t helped by the likes of Gulden and Campbell who are elite kicks, but also small for mids. Don’t get me wrong it’s a solid outfit, but it will be interesting watch to see if they can maintain their CP numbers where they were at the end of 2022(6th) or slip back to the middle of the pack where they were mid season. The player they can least afford to lose – I was tempted to put Buddy down – I think he’s still a vital cog of their forward structure, which sounds either absurd or disturbing because he’s 36 year old. In the end though I went with their captain (or one of them) in Callum Mills. With Joey Kennedy retiring it puts a lot of pressure on their mids to keep up with the other teams in the engine room, I think Mills is just a cut above and the others who have to assume more midfield minutes if he goes down like Florent are nice players, but they won’t have the same output. I don’t have Sydney in my top four, many do, Sportsbet has them on the fourth line of betting to make the four at $10.00 (6th). I think that’s close to the money I have them slipping to 7th.

Bring back Justin Langer! If this is the sort of carp they dish up with a test match in the balance... then I'm sorry but the riot act needs to be read. Very limited and poor understanding of the game to be going out with a mindset of sweeping everything on a deck that is keeping low... just dumb. Since when does Steve Smith sweep? His effort today (looking where he wants the ball to go rather than keeping his eyes over the ball) shows he doesn't - did he play that shot on instruction? In case you can't tell I"m as furious as AB - what an insipid effort!

This team is another non-contender for mine, though if you believe the markets (Sportsbet has them at $4.50 to make the finals) they’re pushing into the realms of being a pretender. The list is still very young and likely to be inconsistent for a while. There’s a lot of expectations on the likes of Jones, Perkins, Cox, Tsatas etc to be good very quickly, but we know that if they don’t have the key players around them that expectation might be a little premature. The exemplar here is Sam Weideman and I hope he does well at the Dons (though he’s been injured already in the preseason), but if you are pinning your hopes for the season on him as your CHF (which is where he looks like starting the season at least) then the rest is kind of predictable. I think the footy world in general is massively over estimating Essendon – and I base that on a few factors – that may leave me with egg on my face. I don’t think Brad Scott can do a quick fix with this list particularly if he’s trying to correct cultural and systemic issues from the previous regime/s… No need to read between the lines as he tries to hose down expectations of what the Bombers can achieve this season. On 7News he said “we’ve got a lot of work to do in just about every facet of the game” and that they require ‘seasoning’ before they can achieve sustained success. That’s a pretty blunt assessment of where they’re at and is pretty clear from my point of view that he’s hit the reset button. I have a friend who was an U18 state player who knows some ex-AFL players – he gets some good info – most of it from SA. After last season Zach Merrett was filthy with himself for having signed a new deal with Essendon at the end of 2021 – now I’m not crying in my beer for poor Zach, but it indicates that if one of your better players had considered jumping ship, but was talked out of it and then later regrets re-signing with the club it sort of points in the general direction that as an insider he isn’t that optimistic about their short term prospects… I don’t think Zach would have re-signed if he thought someone was going to hit that button! Finally Jake (the Fatman) Stringer has come back to start preseason with a certain lack of physical conditioning that has seen him get injured in the preseason again – no surprises here, he signed a nice fat contract after actually showing up and appearing to give a [censored] for half a dozen games before he signed on the dotted line… My point being It’s this sort of attitude that Brad Scott has to address, it takes time and dare I say some of the cultural problems need to be shown the door. I know many won’t, but I’m picking the Bombers to finish bottom four.

I won't go into depth on the Hawks the way I have with some other teams, or for some of the other teams that I think are clearly not going to feature in the top 2/3rds of the ladder. As far as their propects go they're on the nose with punters and as far as the draw goes every match they play will be difficult, about the only interesting thing is that they play North twice which will be interesting as both these teams are the two leading contenders for the spoon, but Clarko will be simply desperate to beat his old mob. On paper it's hard to see where they've improved the list in the short term other than bringing in Meek. Yes the defence looks ok until you realise there were only 3 other sides that coughed up more points than the Hawks last year. The main interest on Hawthorn from the footy world will be what happens now. In terms of rebuilds does Mitchell elevate himself to the likes of Clarko and Dimma or does he join Neeld, Bolton, Teague, and Rutten? They've traded away their two top CP winners from last year in Mitchell and O'Meara as well as three time premiership player Liam Shiels- either it's very brave by Mitchell or deliberate engineering of the list to get better draft picks in the short term maybe ahead of an announcement on a 19th team. The jury is still out on Worpel who has massive disposal issues. Jai Newcomb has been a surprise packet, but not enough to carry the midfield in the absence of other genuine ball winners - particularly if Worpel can't get back to his B&F form. They also traded away a three time leading goal kicker and considering Mitch Lewis is unlikely to play much of the first half of the season -so there's a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Bruest and Wingard and quite frankly the later looks to be playing only to bolster his superannuation, so it's all on the 32 year old to kick a winning score. I picked the the Hawks to win the spoon last year and they jumped up and won 8 games - with the departures though I'm doubling down having gone a year too early with my prediction.

That starting line-up looks just about right - but I'm unconvinced with Fyfe playing as a key forward - but that doesn't mean he won't start the season there. The draw – according to AFL.com Freo have the equal hardest draw, a tough gig for a side that didn’t even make a Prelim. They have double ups against the Lions, Cats, Swans and Dogs with only the Hawks and Eagles providing some respite. Thanks to the ‘gather round' they also have 11 trips on the road as opposed to the previous 10, but they do get back to back games in SA to make it easier. The back end of the fixture will determine their fortunes with four of their last 6 at Optus, but that includes Sydney, Brisbane and Port with a trip to GMHBA thrown in for good measure. Initially I’d factored Freo into my top four calculations based on the back of their outstanding 2022 defensive effort where they gave up 1486 points. (In comparison the other top three defensive teams were us 1483 points and the Cats, 1488 points). There’s no love at the bookies though. Sportsbet has them =9th with the Dogs to make the top four at $15.00 and =9th to make the top eight at $1.91… hmmm what am I missing? 1. Well the first thing I’m missing is that Freo don’t score very heavily as @Bring-Back-Powell noted they ranked 12th last year and they just lost their leading goal scorer to the Dogs. Are they going to miss him? I’m going to say no- firstly because he’s called Rory Lobb and secondly he only kicked 36 goals anyway – that ranked him 29th in the Coleman. They simply have to find more avenues to goal. They need Treacy or Amiss to improve in a hurry, because we all know that Dogga isn’t a key forward at this stage of his career. The smalls in there are wonderful at putting on pressure and the defensive aspects, but they simply don’t kick enough goals to make up for the lack of scoring power from their KPFs. Schulz is probably the best (30 last season), but they need more out of Switkoski (11 from 14 games) and Sonny (25 from 21 games). I can understand why the brought in Josh Corbett – trouble is he averages less than a goal a game – I’d be calling for a test of his B samples if he got more than 2 goals a game consistently. 2. Well there’s not much to say about their defence. It’s superb and they seem to have all bases covered. If you want anymore evidence, a premiership defender and someone I consider quite a useful KPD in Joel Hamling couldn’t crack it for more than a single game last year…. Nothing to worry about defensively from the Dockers. 3. Nor do I think there are too many concerns for them through the midfield with maybe the exception of the wings. Darcy and Jackson in the ruck looks better than OK, Brodie, Brayshaw and Serong through the middle and probably dual Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe as well if he doesn’t make it as a forward. O’Meara comes in to take over Mundy’s midfield minutes – so nothing to see there either. The wings though are an issue. I’m not convinced Liam Henry is actually a gut running winger. I think they’ll give the jobs to Aish and O’Driscoll to start with, but may need to push a Jordan Clark or Hayden Young up there to provide some coverage as well. 4. Do they miss Logue, Acres and Lobb? Well two of them (Logue and Lobb) were top 10 in their B&F and they played 20,20 & 21 games respectively – so they were all key components of their best 22 – so yeah they probably do. Even if they’ve got guys like O’Meara and Jackson they think will play 22 games when available – it’s not exactly like for like. They also have Erasmus, and Sturt champing at the bit to get their opportunity. They’re crossing their fingers their former skipper can be turned into a KPF, but I think that’s wildly optimistic – I think if he was going to be any good as a key forward he would have already – just my view though. The player they can least afford to lose – well no surprises that it’s Matt Taberner. They need him to play a full complement of games this year – it’s absolutely crucial. I mentioned Treacy and Amiss – too early to consider them serious planks in the KPF structure. The issue is though that Freo supporters can hope Tabs plays 22 H&A games, but they have no right to expect it. After 10 seasons he average only 11.6 games a season and the most he’s ever played is 17 (2016). If he’s sitting in the medical rooms again for an extended period the people at Sportsbet are probably on the money (as bookies usually are). I think they will suffocate sides at home – can they win on the road – yes, but they probably don’t kick a big enough score to beat the better sides away from Optus. I’ve revised my prediction and have them 6th.

My starting line up is pretty much the same as @WERRIDEE though I think they’ll go with Keath ahead of Darcy who may or may not continue in defence. It would be hard to know with Bevo the King of spinning magnets. The Draw The bad news– They play the Cats, Tigers, Freo and Port twice. The good news is they play GWS and Hawthorn twice. They also start the season with us at the MCG and then the Saints before playing Brisbane(H), Richmond (A), Port(A), and Freo(A). They’d want to be on their mettle coming off the preseason or the season could almost be out of reach for them before we get to May. 1. The Doggies are the most difficult side to make predictions on and have been ever since Bevo took the reins in 2015. They are an intriguing proposition, having won a premiership and made a GF in his time there, but they have never finished top 4 at the end of the H&A season with him as coach (though came mighty close in 2021). In fact the last time they made the top 4 was 2010. So what to make of them going into 2023 because on paper they appear to be strong enough contender for the flag? They’ve picked up what would appear some missing pieces in Liam Jones and Rory Lobb, and while Dunkley might be considered a loss, clearly Lachie Hunter and Josh Schache weren’t required players – nor for that matter was Mitch Wallis who was delisted – but will they be missed? Only the fullness of time will tell, but I think the ledger is tipped more towards the red than the black which I will discuss below. 2. If you’ve read the previous three dives I’ve done into Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton you may have noticed a recurring theme in terms of key factors I value in separating the contenders from the pretenders that is Defence and Contested Possessions. I’d have to say that this isn’t any original thinking on my behalf, nor did I steal it from David King – these are key stats that many others rely on and have been around for a while and the Dogs over Bevo’s time help illustrate at least the first point. In recent times the premier has always been one of the best three defensive teams in the competition. Since 2015 the Dogs in defence have ranked 7th, 3rd (2016), 8th, 13th, 12th, 10th, 4th (2021*) and 11th. In 2006 the Eagles finished 4th defensively and won the premiership – only twice since then in 2013-14 were the Hawks able to do it (5th) – but they were also a 50 goal better side than the next best team as well. Contested Possessions isn’t as compelling and sides like Geelong last year and Richmond previously have demonstrated you don’t need to be anything special in this area, providing you can offset it by being efficient with ball in hand or finding other ways to get the ball off the opposition. The Dogs by the way were second last for intercepts in the competition last year which segues into my next topic. 3. If the question were ‘Is the Doggies defence capable of being a top 3 side with the addition of Liam Jones this season?’ the simple answer is No. They have two AA half-back flankers in Dale and Daniel and that’s an excellent start, but then it gets a bit patchy. Richards and Duryea are more than handy small foils back there, but when you look at the other smalls that have rotated through there in the last few season most seem to have question marks over them and where their best positions are (as we return to Bevo spinning magnets). Williams now seems to be preferred on the wing after some wobbly moments in defence, Crozier couldn’t cement a spot back there last year after a serviceable start crossing from Freo, Roarke Smith has been in and out as has JJ for injury reasons, but isn’t really a backman anymore. Then we switch to the talls. Does Jones help – you’d think so – 2nd worst intercept side and not a single player in the top 50 in the AFL for Defensive 1v1s (https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html). The trouble is Jones will be 32 when he shapes up for round 1 and the other talls ‘could’ be OK on their day, but aren’t A grade KPDs. Ryan Gardner looks like being the safest bet to team with Jones and had a good season last year and while Keath tries hard and was busted by seasons end there are question marks over whether he can return to his 2021 form – he probably can, but if he doesn’t then the cupboard is getting bare, so bare they’ve been experimenting with Josh Bruce back there during the preseason. O’Brien I’ve never been sold on and his 11 games last year after crossing from the Hawks before playing out the year in the VFL probably indicates that Bevo isn’t sold either. Khamis and Busslinger are too young and inexperienced to be consistently effective and that leaves Darcy who was trialled back there last year… another nice segue. 4. Darcy forward or back? To me he looks like the 2nd Ruck/KPF apprentice which is what he did in U18s, but then Bevo throws him back as an intercepting tall at the back end of 2022. With Jones back they probably don’t need him to play that role, but they also went and got Lobb the player other supporters love to hate – more on him in a sec. Naughton is top shelf and JUH is starting to come into his own, but the Dogs rely heavily on goals from their midfield with Cody Weightman being the only consistent small forward for them. It seems like they’ve got massive hopes for Charlie Clarke to be the second small, but in his rookie season that’s a little too early. I can’t see a place there for Bruce if Lobb plays – you know the bloke that doesn’t want to ruck, doesn’t want to play at the Giants, doesn’t want to stay at Freo,– the guy that the footy world regards as the failed ‘Great Peroxide White Hope’ because he’s never lived up to the hype…. Can Doggies Fans expect him to revolutionise the way their forward line functions – again the answer is no. What they can expect is what he has delivered as a tall forward/2nd Ruck going into his 10th season averaging 11 disposals, 4 marks, 11 hitouts and 1 goal again – Mehhh not much better than Luke Jackson whose barely played 3 seasons. 5. Does Dunkley and Hunter leaving weaken their midfield? Well- yes and no. No because Hunter only played the 10 games last year and had fallen out with the coach (he did play all 25 matches in 2021 though), no because they were struggling to fit Dunkley into the packed midfield rotation with the quality of Bont, Macrae, Libba, Treloar. (He found himself on the HFF for longer than he would have liked). Yes, because both Hunter(2018) and Dunkley (2022) are both B&F winners – they can seriously play footy and you shouldn’t be making a habit of losing guys like that. Yes because there’s no natural replacement to play on the wing for Lachie or another player that immediately steps into the midfield and racks up 260 CP and plays with that defensive mindset that Josh did. I’m leaning towards their midfield will be weaker, but by how much remains to be seen whether guys like Bailey Smith (the #1 turnover player in the competition) and Riley West step up to fill the void. The player they can least afford to lose - given the amount of time discussing their defensive woes I was tempted to put down Liam Jones, or perhaps Caleb Daniel the man they rely on to pilot them out of the treacherous waters off half back. In the end though it has to be Bont, He picks this team up and carries them on his shoulders, but last year those shoulders looked really sore. He played 22 of 23 games last year with one week off being managed, but he wasn't right all year and it was the first time since his debut year he's finished lower than 3rd in their B&F. It's absolutely vital for them he's back playing closer to 90% this season than where he was last year. Am I any the wiser on what the Dogs will do this year… not really, but safe to say neither is the market they’re currently middle of the pack (=9th) with Freo to make the top four and the top eight. It seems no one is quite sure what they will do. Can they make the top 4 – yes, Will they make the top 4 – nope. They’ll be there in the eight, but they need a lot to go right for them to repeat the heroics of 2016 & 2021 and I’m not sure lightning will strike three times. I’ve got them finishing eighth. *They were playing statistically the best defensive side in living memory - we all recall with great delight the floodgates opening with 35 minutes left to go. I think the Doggies were still searching for answers half way through last season to figure out what went wrong.

@WERRIDEEI I have a slightly different starting line-up - though Newman for Williams is an obvious change given the laters' ACL. I have Fisher, Hewett and De Koning all in the starting XVIII at the expense of Durdin, Martin and Pittonet. It's probably a case of splitting hairs, but while Durdin was a revelation last year playing 21 games he's still young and could drop off, whereas Fisher played all 22 and was 7th in the B&F (yes- I was surprised too). De Koning I think will assume the #1 ruck. Pittonet was injured, I know, and came back in for the last 2 games of the year at TDs expense – TD is more mobile and has more upside. I think both will probably play anyway with 5 on the bench now. Jack Martin has to be one of the most frustrating footballers on any list - he shows glimpses of his sublime talent, but that's all they are glimpses. He's forever in the medical rooms (38 games in 3 seasons since crossing on big money) and there were 20 other blokes that played more senior games than he did last year. I’d have Owies and Cottrell (depending on his foot) in ahead of him and Hewett will definitely be picked before Jack will, but I'll cover more on him a bit later. So the draw: The Blues play us and the Pies twice - they also have return bouts against, GCS, GWS, Saints and West Coast... on paper at least based on last years form Blues fans would be pretty happy. It gets even between when you see the full draw. They've got two 5 day breaks and three 6 day breaks leading into the bye – the rest is very generous particularly as they have big blocks of very winnable games to get on a roll. If they haven't at least 8 wins on the board by the bye (I think they could go 15-16 wins for the season) the Blues faithful should be baying for Voss' blood. 1. So let's start at the coal face. The contested possession count – this probably reflects not only the game plan of the respective sides, but the way both senior coaches actually played the game back in the day. Melbourne were the #1 contested possession side last year (3238 in total after round 23) but Carlton was a close second (3200 after round 23). We had four players get over 200 CP (Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn), Carlton had only two with Cripps and Walsh, but Hewett was 3rd with 190 and missed 7 games (so logically would have likely got over 200 if he'd played every game). Matt Kennedy had 188 CP but missed 5 matches. I’m not sure that the title of being the top CP team means that much, and it isn’t the be all and end all (after all Richmond managed three flags being a middle of the road CP side) but it is an indication of how they like to play the game and when the Blues get it right they’re a contender for sure. For the record the Crows were third, Suns fourth, Lions fifth and Swans sixth. Geelong ranked 12thbut all five of their top five CP winners had over 200 CP – so it’s a very uneven spread. 2. The midfield. Walsh injured early hurts, but if he’s managed properly and back to his 2022 form by May/June, then it’s only a minor hiccup. Winners of Charlie usually struggle to replicate the heights they reached in the previous season, but even given that they can afford a small drop off from Cripps if they manage to get 20+ games out of two of their less high profile, but absolutely vital midfield generals. There’s a reason why Carlton were flying early in 2022 and it was off the back of career highs for two mids. Matt Kennedy averaged 24.47 (11contested) disposals in 2022 that's more than 6 better than in any other season he's played. George Hewett averaged 28.47 (12.47 contested) that more than 7 better than in any other season he's played. - You can see where this is going. Patrick Cripps should be giving each of them some royalties for the endorsements he's got for winning a Brownlow - without them he and Walsh are back to playing as a duet in the contested possession orchestra, rather than the full ensemble. The common view is that Carlton bottled their season last year, my view is that injuries got them - Hewett in particular is a first string mid with the Blues right next to Cripps and Walsh. He does the unfashionable defensive mid role- but he's super important as is Kennedy who I personally think was the biggest improver of 2022. No wonder the Blues dropped their last four games when they weren’t available. Acres on one wing and perhaps Cerra, perhaps Cottrell, mean they should have better options than most teams for that role. 3. It’s not a bad attacking line-up when you have two Coleman medallists as your two key pillars. What they’re lacking though is a classy small forward that can kick 40+ goals a season (like a Kozzie Pickett for example). Motlop and to a lesser extent Owies and Durdin showed that they could be the smalls needed at the feet of the bigger guys, but it still tends to be all or nothing for the Blues if either Charlie or Harry can’t kick a bag. They need to find a way to spread the goals a little more evenly. I have a mate who is Blues fan and whose footy brain I rate highly – the two Blues he dislikes playing are Silvagni and Fisher – his thoughts are that they muck up too many scoring chains- he just doesn't like their decision making. He’s perhaps being a little unfair on Fisher, but I can see his point with Jack. It might be an interesting year for him as he doesn’t have any real tricks that make him the obvious choice over resting a tall like TD forward or playing a more mobile Corey Durdin, Josh Honey, Lachie Fogarty or dare I say Jack Martin if he can ever put it together. 4. Defence – on first blush I thought this would be an issue for the Blues even before Zac Williams injury and maybe it still will be. With Weitering they have one of the league’s best KPD. Young came into his own last year showing far more than he ever did at the Dogs, but it’s still a small sample size to see how he would go as the #1 defensive tall if he has to assume that mantle. Marchbank is probably the competition’s unluckiest player, but if he can get on the park they have three really good tall options to partner McGovern – provided he can maintain that intercept marking form (though again only a small sample size). I said before I’m not a fan of Plowman – he’s a weak link in defence, undersized as a Key Back and too ungainly/slow to effectively play on a small – just my view. Saad is extremely lucky to be an AA IMHO ahead of say Angus Brayshaw or maybe even Sam Docherty who was the Blues B&F runner up. Newman provides a good lockdown option, but they’ll probably need to find at least one more speedy runner with good penetration to replace Williams – who I’m seeing as a loss – just a loss at this stage, neither minor, nor major. It is the one area they do need to improve on though to become a genuine premiership threat. There were three standout defensive teams last year and Carlton weren't one of them. They ranked sixth only one point above the Saints and in the same bracket as Richmond and the Lions - so not terrible, but not great either. 5. The player they can least afford to lose – it was a toss up, but I settled on Weitering. Charlie, Harry, Sam and Patrick are all in the best six for Carlton. So is Jacob – clearly, absolutely, indubitably, but no other tall back would be in the conversation and that’s a problem for the Blues – how do they cover him going down? (with great difficulty) It’s weird – or at least I think it’s weird that their VC wasn’t even in their top 10 for their B&F last season… but maybe that has something to do with the fact that none of their coaching group last year was a defender. Maybe Tom Lonergan addresses the issue this year because if Weitering isn’t in their five best players week in week out, then I’ll go heave. Sportsbet has the Blues knocking on the door of the top four this year at $9.50- they’re paying $1.40 to make the eight. It’s a human trait to pattern match – though sometimes we see patterns where none exist. I don’t think there were any real similarities between our 2017 season and the Blues, except for the disappointment both sides would have felt about a missed opportunity. So it doesn't necessarily follow that the Blues automatically play in a Prelim this year because or what happened last year, except I actually think they will because I think they have a game style that lends itself to finals success. It hasn’t been a good preseason in terms of the injury front, but it hasn’t been terminal either, I think they’ll recover and I think they will find a way to sneak into the four, but that’s the problem I currently have six teams in my top four.

Bailey is important because he gives them pace. Without him they're slow through the middle of the ground - Dunkley for Lyons doesn't exactly balance the equation either. Zorko and Rich as good as they are at kicking it, don't cover ground quickly -Coleman is the counterweight and maybe McKenna helps address that as well, but it's a big question mark on him.