grazman

Effort without talent at the highest level will still result in a slaughter like we saw last night. I've predicted the Swans to fall out of the eight this year based on history (teams that get flogged in GFs rarely come up the following year) and some list deficiencies that are masked to a certain extent playing on their postage stamp home ground. I think the whole 'Bloods' culture like the 'Shinboner' spirit is a little overblown- particularly by the media who love the romanticism of it - it plays well when you have a good list, but it means diddly squat if your game plan doesn't stack up and you are missing key players.

This has to be the most ridiculous cliche in footy history - they might not be an excuse, but they are an explanation. It's asinine to try to say that if we had both Gawn and Lever in we wouldn't have been better. And you do realise that Richmond were more crippled by injuries than Sydney last night?

🤔 time to kick in the AI bots... I assume it's because people use the term in the pejorative sense as a noun rather than as a verb that it's censored.

Can’t see Salem or Fritsch coming back in off limited preparation - they probably both need at least three quarters with Casey first.

Like most games, this one will be won in the midfield.

I think the instruction as it should always be to forwards is if you think you can kick it then take the shot. Of course you always play the percentages and if there is a better option then give it off- but often the open lead down the ground is a sucker play- more often than not it results in a turnover- it’s harder to execute properly than it appears.

I think the rationale for both JJ and JVR was to give them a full run in the twos and get the miles into the legs by play 90% TOG rather than 50-60% TOG in the firsts. JJ is in the frame for round 1, to me it was testing out Laurie to see how ready he might be if he were to get an opportunity this year. I think he's still a fair way off.

My wife made exactly the same thing!

He was off target today for sure, but his kicking action looks pretty good. The one thing he can do that Kozzie, Spargo, ANB (and if he was still at the club Toby Bedford) can't do is cover the distance from +45 metres out quite easily.

Clarrie also had a fractured cheekbone (maybe eye socket) I think as well.

Well it depends on how you rank these things, in my mind I had us up with the Dogs, (English, Bont, Macrae, Libba) as one of the best two midfields, but fans of Brisbane, Geelong, Sydney, Port, Richmond etc would probably disagree their sides weren't up there as well. It's all subjective really, but you can try to move to a less subjective position by using metrics from a wide variety of inputs rather just your own opinion. . For example - I compared each of the finalists from last year with their best 4 centre square starting combinations in terms of total number of games, Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings. Melbourne ranked 4th for total games but 1st for Brownlow votes, 1st for Coaches votes and 1st for AFL rankings compared to the other 7 teams. I haven't done it for the wingers or resting ruckmen etc, but it tells me that it's not just me that thinks our mids are the best in the game, clearly the umpires, coaches and to a certain extent stats validate that as well. FWIW I think you are bang on about Harris Andrews and you can add Payne (who I think will be good eventually) as well. If they couldn't dominate in the air against that Geelong attack then there would have been even more concerns on their back six than there already are.

I feel for Gold Coast supporters, I imagine them watching the Suns and waiting for them to make the finals must be something like being an audience member on the opening night of Samuel Beckett’s play ‘Waiting for Godot’. I think GCS ‘could’ jump into the eight (and I think they might for periods) but ultimately I think they will fall just short which is why I’ve picked them for 9th as the close, but not close enough team for 2023. Firstly the draw. Now the Suns are actually turning into something resembling a decent footy team it looks pretty good on paper They play Brisbane, Carlton, Sydney, St Kilda, Adelaide and North twice. Given where I think those sides will finish I think there’s at minimum 7 wins in there for the Suns and we should know as early as round 6 whether they are on track to make their first finals outing with difficult, but winnable matches at home early against the Swans and Cats as well as North, and trips on the road against the Dons, Saints and Freo in Adelaide for the Gather Round. The biggest issue I think with the Suns is their defence. They coughed up 100 point games to the opposition seven times in 2022 and losing six of those games. Collins, Ballard, Swallow, Lemmens, and Weller back from an ACL are all gritty and dour triers – they’ll throw Long back there to add to that group, but the only really classy ball user they have back there is Lukosius who I’m very undecided on. With more size and competitive juices he’d be playing forward or in the midfield, but he’s playing back for his kicking ability, but last year wasn’t his best only going at 60.8% which was a dramatic drop off. Maybe having Wil Powell back this year (his career kicking % is 73.5 compared to Jack’s 69.2) helps improve that aspect by taking some of the pressure of Jack. The starting midfield is strong for the Suns, but the depth is questionable. Witts is a very capable ruckman who gets a good chop out from Chol who delivers as a genuine forward/ruck option. Miller, Rowell and Anderson are all top shelf and get adequate support from Fiorini, Ellis and Holman. They’ll be hopeful that Sharp can come on to hold down a wing, but the other wing is an issue. You just get the feeling that along with the Bowes contract, the Atkins contract will comeback to haunt them for someone that has struggled to establish themselves in the Suns midfield – which shouldn’t have been an issue for someone signed on a five year contract. People should be realistic on how much influence King will have on his return from an ACL, but it poses an interesting problem for the Suns whether to go taller by keeping the stop-gap Casboult who was very good last season in the same side with Chol and King. They have some reasonable medium options like Sexton, Jeffery, and Stein who was picked up as a rookie from GWS (to replace Corbett) if they decide for a more defensive forward line, but will need more out of their other small forwards now Rankine has left – it’s probably the one area of need where they need to recruit for in the future. Overall I’m bullish about the Suns, but can still see enough holes on the list to leave them just out of the eight. 9thseems about right.

Let's call a spade a spade with the Saints, they’re not a contender even with Ross Lyon returning and make no mistake the Saints list for 2023 is nothing like their list from 2007 or Freo’s list in 2012 when he had pretty much all the pieces he needed to contend for a flag. From 2017-2019 the Saints sold the basis of their future success for football’s equivalent of magic beans. Hannebery, Carlisle, Kent, Butler, Hill, Jones, Ryder (Crouch was a RFA)- you could mount an argument why each of them might have helped them at the point in time they were at, but collectively the end result has left a train wreck. You can salvage the names of Jack Steele and Dougal Howard as being successes from that period (no I’m not buying into the argument that Hill might be eventually), but it’s relative – what it’s cost them in the end was far more than what they thought they were paying… but enough of history. The back six looks solid with Coffield back up and running, Howard, Sinclair, Wilkie and WM are all very capable and Battle, Webster and Highmore provide good support. The issue will be that the ball will be coming in there far too often for them to stem the tide. They have no ruck depth and very little in the way of midfield depth either. The starting midfield of Steele, Crouch and Ross looks pretty pedestrian to me. The Saints fans are big raps for Jade Gresham, but he’s still got a bit of ground to make up if he wants to be compared to the likes of Martin, Petracca and Bontempelli in his ability to influence games (he’s only ever had four games where he’s got 30 touches or more). The problems for the start of the year is that King leaves a massive hole in their ability to score, and considering Lyon’s ‘defence first’ coaching philosophy they will struggle to kick winning scores. They’ll take comfort from the performances of guys like Windhager, Owens, and Phillipou, but it won’t be enough to win games consistently and ‘Ross the Boss’ will need to conjure a rabbit out of a hat to keep them out of the bottom four. For me it was hard to split them and West Coast, but I’ve pencilled them in for 13th.

The footy world seems united in its view on the Eagles. They aren’t a contender, though they could push for a top 8 spot, but to do that they need all their best players out on the park, and from recent history and their age profile that would seem a very unlikely outcome. Last season the Eagles were the only team not to have a single player play in every match, in 2021 they had five: Cole, Nic Nat, Sheed, Darling and Cripps. Last season Cole (0) Nic Nat (8) and Sheed (1) didn’t really give a yelp playing wise which helps explain why they nosed dived from 9th with 10 wins to 17th with 2. Even if they address the injury woes, and surely they have realistic expectations on the number of games you can get out of blokes 33 years and older such as Shuey, Hurn and Nic Nat, then there are still a few systemic issues in the Eagles list that point to a list in transition. Outside of their 2018 premiership players (of which only 12 remain) their recruitment of Tim Kelly has cost them a massive amount of capital put into one midfielder who can't beat a tag and restricted their ability to access other talent. They do have 13 players aged 23-26, but only Oscar Allen could be considered a lock in their best side with maybe Rotham, and maybe Bailey Williams in time. SPS, Jarmain Jones and Witherden are all recycled and Connor West still sits on the rookie list - but they're there for the short term to fill the gaps. Speaking of Oscar Allen, he didn’t play a match last season which hurt them. If he comes back to fulfil the potential he showed in breaking into the Eagles B&F top 10 in 2021 it will be into a forward line missing Kennedy and Rioli making his job that much harder with increased expectations. It's the midfield for me though that the real issues become apparent. A fully fit Elliot Yeo will be welcomed back, but Gaff is a shadow of what he was and Redden is no longer there. Even with Sheed back to support Shuey and Kelly I think they are a bottom two midfield who will need to blood a lot of kids in there as they begin the rebuild. They have high hopes for players like Ginbey, Hewett, Chesher, Hough and Burgiel, but it’s way too soon to be counting those chickens yet. Initially I bought into the bullishness of Westcoast bouncing back, but I struggle to see them winning games consistently (particularly away from Optus) and have them pegged to finish around 14th.

The draw – well it’s Collonwood right so you know they’re going to get a charmed run. They play Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Port, Essendon and Adelaide twice. They do have six interstate trips, but one of those is for the ‘gather round’ where they play the Saints, but they do have to front up to the Crows at AO off a five day break following Anzac Day. They do have some harder matches at the back end of the season so it will be interesting to see how they are fixtured. Watch this space. 1. I’m expecting the Pies to slide this year, not a massive amount, I think they’ll still make the finals but won’t be a top 4 contender -so here’s why I’m expecting a side that has added to three areas (McStay, Mitchell and Hill) to slip behind where they were last year. Firstly if you can find an article from Max Laughton on the Fox Footy site (7th Feb) on Pythagorean prediction of wins it makes a good argument for why the Pies are unlikely to go 7 wins from 10 games decided by a goal or less this season. Not exactly lucky last year, but not necessarily replicable either – according to the article we’re more likely to see a reversion to the mean given the same situation again and the Pies to go closer to 5&5 or maybe 3 & 7 to square the ledger. There’s thin margins there for Craig McRae to work with based on how close a lot of their games were in 2022 and they’ll need to improve because the rest of the competition now has had a good look and worked out how they play and will have counter tactics to employ. 2. The midfield is not as strong as it appears. I compared each of the finalists from last year with their best 4 centre square starting combinations in terms of total number of games, Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings. I was selective in adding Tom Mitchell for Pendlebury – Collingwood ranked 6th in terms of total games, 7th for Brownlow and Coaches votes and 8th for AFL rankings. (Melbourne by the way ranked 4th for total games but 1st for Brownlow votes, Coaches votes and AFL rankings). It maybe that Daicos and De Goey give them some X factor in there, but in terms of midfield depth it’s lacking which is why Pendles had to roll through there far more last year than a 34 year old should. The fact that 3 of their top 5 in their B&F are 32 and over is a concern. Nick Daicos will obviously be a star, but it's a big load to shoulder at the moment for a guy in only his second season. 3. They lost Ollie Henry a player they would have ideally liked to have kept and Brodie Grundy a player they couldn’t afford to keep in the offseason. It’s made the list substantially weaker even with the additions of McStay and Mitchell. Moore has had an interrupted preseason due to a bone infection and De Goey decided to delay his off-season surgery until after his holiday. Not an ideal start in terms of preparation for a list that needs a lot to go right to back up last year. There’s a lot of pressure on Cameron to stay fit given that Mason Cox has a large question mark on his ability to be the main ruck. Yes he gives them a tall forward option as well, but only 7 goals in 18 games last year and a career average of under 9 hitouts a game wouldn’t offer any comfort if Darcy goes down. I like their defence, it’s unheralded and unfashionable, but it does the job, largely due to the 203cm 2020 AA defender in Darcy Moore – now their captain. He gets good service from Murphy and Maynard and Jeremy Howe plays the intercepting role as well as anyone, Quaynor has taken his time, but has come on well. Similarly their forward line is workmanlike with the likes of Mihocek, Elliot and now McStay. They’ll do a power of running to make it work, but the unknowns will be where Ginnivan will be at given his indiscretion and whether De Goey can perform at a consistent level (why start now). They have high hopes for Bobby Hill, but it would be a break out year for him if he could deliver a goal a game and a dozen possessions, something he’s never done in his 4 seasons at the Giants. Overall I think the Pies are well coached and play aggressive fearless football, it will be interesting to see if that unravels a bit this year once sides do their homework in the offseason. I think the last 6 in their best 22/23 is pretty weak in comparison to other sides and they need the youth to step up again for them if they are to take the pressure of the aging Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe. I’ve picked them to finish 7th.

The draw - 7 of their first 9 matches are in Victoria (at the MCG or GMHBA) which will help the old legs in their squad with only trips to Metricon and then to Adelaide for the 'Gather Round' to play West Coast before Rd 10. They do have 5 six day breaks though in that first 9 rounds which may or may not be a factor depending on any niggles with their senior citizens. I think they''ll have a solid enough start but AFL.com assessed them as having the equal hardest draw and playing Sydney, Collingwood, Freo, Port and the Bulldogs twice which makes it significantly harder than last year, but all those return matches bar the Pies are at GMHBA and of course they play us there as well - they do have to square off against Carlton and Richmond at the G though and I think both of those teams will challenge for the top 4. 1. While they have the oldest list, it's also the most experienced and I don't expect the fall off the cliff unless there are significant games lost by Hawkins (possible he's got a foot complaint and will miss the start of the season at least) and the other 32 and over older players: Touhy, Blicavs, Stanley, Smith, Duncan and Dangerfield. I think their support cast is solid without being spectacular and they seem thin in particular for depth in the key positions even though they didn't really need them last year. It will be interesting to see whether the AFL world continues to laud their management approach after this year. With the exception of Ceglar and Jack Henry they never really had too many injuries to senior players so were able to keep the best 22 together for long periods. It might be harder for them to rest players the way they did last season with blocks of harder games in a row this year especially at the back end of the season where only St Kilda in the second last round looks easy on paper. 2. They've got a good cohesive defence. – the third best in 2022 (though there was only a goal separating all three). Stewart is elite, and De Koning might be by the end of the season as well and Henry can do the job on the third tall. Then there’s always Blicavs they can swing back there. The smaller players (with maybe the exception of Touhy) in Bews, Zac Guthrie, and Kolodjashni go about their job with a minimum of fuss and fanfare and they have the luxury of being able to throw Atkins back there if needed. Like all good defensive sides they also rely on their midfield being able to fold back to provide support, including their rucks. It will be an interesting watch this year to see if they can maintain that work rate. 3. I think of all the lines the one area of concern for the Cats is their midfield. That may seem odd given they’ve added Bowes and Bruhn, but only lost Selwood -whose on field direction and work in close they’ll miss. They’ll still have a very strong first string on ball brigade in Duncan, Guthrie, Atkins and Dangerfield, in the middle and Smith and Holmes to lock in on the wings – (though they’re experimenting with Holmes as an inside mid). The issue for me (and I do love mids that get first hands on the ball) is that while they’re an elite defensive side, they’re a very ordinary CP side, though strangely they had 5 players get over 200 CP for the year: Guthrie 245, Blicavs 213, Danger 210, Atkins 209 and Selwood 204. It tells me there’s a lot of heavy lifting in there by only a few – one of whom has retired and two are 32 & 33. It will be interesting to see if they continue to use O’Connor in a lockdown role (who only averages 13 possessions for 82% TOG) or run with a more creative mid in that position. Their rucks (Stanley and Ceglar) are serviceable, but they aren’t in any conversations as match winners. 4. The fortunes of their forward line rest very much on the shoulders of Tom Hawkins who provides the structure they need. Jezza isn’t that player – he’s a good second foil and he’s crucial in his own right, but his effectiveness is curtailed when Tom isn’t there. With Stengle and Ollie Henry (who I think will replace Rohan) they have plenty of goals scoring options while Miers and Close play their roles as good as anyone. The only question mark is whether father time (for Hawkins) or injuries (dodgy hammies for Jezza) disrupt their season. 5. The elephant in the room is age, while they rewrote history to win the premiership last year with the oldest list in AFL/VFL history - logic would say that its highly unlikely they will have the same good fortune twice in a row (you do need luck on your side to win a premiership) and as our experience last year demonstrated it's tough to back up particularly as you get older. I expect them to win enough games to finish top four but am hoping they run out of petrol tickets come the finals. 5. The player they can least afford to lose – I actually can’t pick just one. I think there are four which might not be such a good sign for the Cats: Hawkins, Cameron, Blicavs and Stewart. I was tempted to say five with Danger who for me the lynchpin of the midfield but I think they can sort of cover him, but given how critical the other four are to their structure they can't afford any on them to be watching from the stands. For Chris Scott and how he coaches it is all about structure - well it is for most coaches, but he’s super reliant on having those players available – particularly when they play at the MCG. Last year of a possible 25 matches they played respectively: 25, 24, 24 and 20 (Stewart’s suspension didn’t really cost them in the end). The Cats will obviously be there and thereabouts again and I think they’re good enough to finish 2nd at the end of the H&A. Injuries will be critical to their fortunes as they are for most teams, but with their age profile i'm expecting them to be more disruptive this season than last.

OK here’s one for the superstitious amongst us to watch as the season unfolds. Currently both Melbourne and Richmond are on the second line of betting after the premiers. The market can’t split them. That puts us and the Tiges in the gun for a top 3 finish. The last three times the Tigers won the premiership they did it all three times from third. Melbourne are 9 from 10 having won the minor premiership… watch this space. Well firstly the draw their draw is ranked equal 6th hardest along with ours, but it’s got a lot of unknowns in there: they play Us, the Swans and Bulldogs twice as the only finalists from last year, but they also play Port, Saints and Eagles twice as well and there’s some doubt over whether they can all get their 2021 mojo back - or are they all on the slide? I certainly think the Tigers can get their mojo back though and it would be a mistake to think that this side is finished as a contender. Most of their matches appear evenly spaced in terms of competitive sides and there’s 13 games at the G and 3 at Marvel. Other than the second round against the Crows, they have no other 5 day breaks before the bye. 1. As stated, I have three sides locked in my top three- two I consider to be among the best defensive teams in the competition the other is the Tigers, whose defensive record last year definitely pales in comparison. They missed Grimes (8 games), Balta (4), Vlaustin (5) when they were needed as well having to rely on a very young Josh Gibcus to shoulder the load. I think they're susceptible down back due to the age and injury history of the likes of three above, but their support cast of Gibcus (injury interrupted preseason), Rioli, Broad, Short and Balta is solid and they've got games into Miller who should continue to develop. While I don't expect them to be impenetrable like they were a few years ago, I think they could be better defensively this year than they were in 2022 where they coughed up in excess of 90 points a game 9 times with 5 losses over 100 points. 2. As for their midfield they've spent big and got what they needed for now. Taranto (whose had a full preseason for the first time since he won the Giants B&F in 2019 when they made the GF) and Hopper who I rate highly will help get first hands on the ball. Both are serious additions to the one problem area of the ground that was always hampered by injury for the Tigers of late (as recently seen in their EF loss to Brisbane). It means there's less reliance on Prestia and Cotchin (who came 6th in their B&F last year) who will play predominantly forward this year. Add in Bolton and Baker who are coming into their prime as footballers and make their midfield/forward line super dangerous. It probably means regulars in previous season like Pickett and Castagna might need to show some serious form or they play twos. Prestia being available is a bonus now rather than a necessity. 3. The X factor of course is Dusty. I think he’ll bounce back and in a big way. The effect of his dad dying shouldn't be discounted on his season last year – he’ll be driven to make up for last year and along with Bolton swapping between the midfield and forward line it’s a nightmare for any defensive coach to contemplate. Throw in B&F winner and almost Coleman Medallist Tom Lynch with a capable support cast of Rioli, Riewoldt, Cotchin (probably) and there’s a fair bit of experience down there, not hard to see why they were the #1 scoring team at the end of the H&A. They might not have a top three defensive outfit anymore, but it’s going to take one to put the brakes on them going all the way. The player they can least afford to lose for mine is Tom Lynch. He is critical to them going all the way, without him I don't think they can because Jack Riewoldt simply can't be that player from five years ago before Tom arrived to lighten the load. I don't think Cumberland has enough exposed form to judge whether he's up to it yet or a flash in the pan similar to the purple patch young forwards sometimes have (Jake Riccardi). As good as their mid sized and small forwards are (critical to winning a premiership) you have to make a GF first and without a tall forward structure that becomes almost impossible. I’m picking them to finish 3rd. I think they’ll get a lot of sides this year, but their defence just isn’t where it needs to be.

I've reassessed the above view based on a conversation I had recently and I think the Swans will slip out of the eight altogether. It was put to me that every year a top four side from the previous season slides out of the eight... That's not quite correct, but it's close - since 1996 of the teams that finished in the top 4 at the end of the H&A, 19 times (twice in 2000) they have failed to play finals the following year. Not quite a given, but still statistically significant. There's obviously a bunch of factors why that happens to sides, but coinciding with the point I made above about sides getting belted in GFs - I think it's more likely than unlikely the Swans slide signficantly this year. Here's three factors why that could happen. 1. I mentioned Rampe above and his significant downturn in output compared to previous seasons. He could bounce back particularly if it was based around an injury that meant he could play, but not at his best, but if it's age based then... 2. Paddy McCartin. The elephant in the room is his concussion history. We all hope that it doesn't happen, but it is a contact sport and any type of concussion means he misses significant weeks - if Rampe can't get back to his previous form then it makes for a worst case scenario for Horse in how to shore up his key defensive options. 3. I probably glossed over this in the analysis above - but the pragmatic side of me says even though Buddy was the leading goal scorer for the Swans last season he's just about cooked. He's still a capable goal scorer 52 goals in 23 games from your key forward most sides would take in a heartbeat. He kicked 15 goals in 6 games against defensive sides ranked 6-9 and he's enormous in terms of the structural make up of their forward half. The real worry for the Swans and no prizes here for putting two and two together - is his output against the best defensive sides. Against the four best defences in the competition he kicked 6 goals in 6 games (that includes 4 he kicked against the Cats in Rd 2). Against the best defensive team last year (us) he kicked none in both matches. It's a rod the Swans have made for their own back, they can try to manage him given the fatigue his 36 y.o. frame would be suffering, but it really isn't a fitness issue it's an age issue. He just can't do what he used to.

The market has North pegged as a bottom 2 side, and admittedly I did too until i took a closer look at their list and their draw and I now think that they could actually win somewhere between 6-8 matches this year. That might even be enough to drag them out of the bottom four... bat [censored] crazy you say... allow me to explain. Someone at AFL house has a perverse sense of humour. It's always difficult with the vagaries of the draw based on where they finished the year before rather than what they are capable of the next year, but last season North had to play the eventual Grand Finalists twice each (bummer) and also GCS who improved markedly while the Hawks and Crows remained stable and didn't slide. This year they play the following teams twice: the Hawks (Hello Alistair meet Sam the man that wanted your job) Dons (Brad meet Alistair the man who didn't want your job), Saints (Alistair do you know Ross?) Eagles (like North coming off a 2 win season), Suns and Us (bummer). On paper at least you'd think just from those encounters alone and when they play them that there's a good chance that they could win 4-5 of those 12 matches. Then there's matches in Hobart against the Giants and Suns. There's also the David Noble factor last year - and this isn't kicking a bloke when he's down, but it was impossible to know last year exactly whether North had failed to meet the low bar from 2021 because of the list or the coach, but I think there's some very good reasons to think they'll bounce back this year. The first is that whilst many are looking at the kids and saying they're too green they'll add 752 games of experience this season in Cunnington, Shiels, Howe, Logue, & Tucker that will play the majority of games to stiffen up the side. Simpkin, LDU, Powell, Phillips, Sheezel, and Wardlaw are all talents as you'd expect from first round draft picks. While players like Greenwood, Hall, Corr, and Bonar might not play in a contending side they can all play a role if needed. Tarryn Thomas hurts, but not too much considering they're coming off a low base. The obvious weakness for me now they have Logue to stiffen their defence is in attack. They need another tall like Comben to come on to support Larkey and Zurhaar, and while Mahony and Lazzaro are busy smalls they lack the genuine class that they need to be truly effective. When I compare North on paper I think they are better on paper than both Hawthorn and Essendon and could easily get over both West Coast and St Kilda at the right time of year depending on injuries. They have the ability to surprise sides - and I'm tipping them to finish 15th.

Drew is definitely their defensive mid he was #1 for tackles at Port and does a lot of blocking/minding of the oppositions most dangerous mid. Coincidentally I spoke to a friend who barracks for them and gets a lot of good inside goss. The Power intend to have at least one experienced mid start in the square with two of the younger mids. This will mainly be Wines or Boak (who will rest forward) and maybe SPP and supports my theory about Travis Boak still being their most important player. He thought if Finlayson wasn't available they may opt use SPP in a similar role to Shaun Grigg at the Tigers as the undersized ruckman, but thought against sides like us and Freo they may play Lycett and Hayes in tandem, but this wouldn't be the norm. He also mentioned Fantasia (who I'd completely forgotten about - quite understandable given he has barely played the last two seasons) as maybe their Joker in the pack if he can stay on the park - but that's a big IF.

I'm going against the grain here, I think it might be a year or two too early for Port return to the eight. but here we go: The draw: - of all the teams the Power have the most interesting draw because you have to ask yourself if lightning will strike twice? They play the Pies, Cats, Tigers, Bulldogs and Dons twice with the obligatory two showdowns scheduled in. Of course having the ‘gather round’ in Adelaide gives them an extra home game. Last year thanks to the absence of Charlie Dixon they started the season 0-5 before rebounding strongly against the Eagles in Rd 6 and having the ledger square at 8-8 before dropping four games in a row to contenders: Us, the Cats, Tigers and Pies. This year they start the season against their bogey team the Lions who they haven’t beaten since 2018 when Brisbane won only 5 games for the year – since then it’s been all Lions, they then travel to the MCG to play the Pies before a Rd 3 showdown the same match they lost last year, then it’s the Swans at the SCG and Dogs at home in the gather round before a rd 6 match at home against none other than the Eagles. The fascinating watch though is their tough run home – similar to last year. In the last six rounds they play five likely contenders in Carlton(H), Collingwood(H), Geelong (GMHBA), Freo (A) and Richmond (H). You have the feeling that if they haven’t at least got 10 wins on the board by then it’ll be curtains for Kenny even if they scrape into the eight. 1. Will lightning strike twice then? Well I don’t think the Power will start the season 0-5 and while initially I was trying to mount an argument that could conceivably see them get back to their 2021 form and play off in a Prelim, I’ve come to the conclusion that the back end of the draw might be a bridge too far for Kenny to get an extension. On paper they just aren’t as good as they were in 2021. They’ve lost key planks to their first choice side: Robbie Gray (irreplacable) Amon (haven’t recruited a like for like to run that wing) and Motlop (I’ll happily concede that Rioli probably has this one covered). The other issue is Finlayson who was a revelation last year in the ruck has a syndesmosis injury to start the season and has more pressing personal matters to attend to anyway putting a question mark on his availability. That's offset by Lycett returning, but with five on the bench you get the feeling Jeremy was in the 23 so when you look at their best side there are still question marks. 2. So the first question mark is Duursma, does he get back to his 2019/2021 form or do we see the 2020/2022 version? It’s an odd year so he should be alright… but if he isn’t then the midfield depth and particularly the coverage on the wing becomes an issue. Secondly the next question mark is on whether any of the plethora of HBF they have can step up to fill the void on the other wing. Trent Dumont who is still on the Rookie list might be given a shot first, but he finished out last season in the SANFL so they might opt for one of Burton, Jones DBJ or Bonnor– probably not Farrell or Houston who will stay back. The next question mark is if Finlayson isn’t available they only have Hayes with 7 games with any senior rucking experience, it also makes them a little top heavy for big men when they'd prefer a more mobile option - trouble is they really haven't got any of those that aren't already in the side. Do they play both he and Lycett together or throw Dixon into the ruck… hmmm something the 33 y.o. probably wouldn’t relish. 3. Defensively the Power weren’t in the top three sides, but they were in the next tier. They have very capable talls in AA, Jonas & Cleury and capable coverage from McKenzie and Houston. As already stated they have no shortage of running HBFs to chose from including Josh Sinn champing at the bit to get his opportunity. They only conceded 100 points three times last year with strangely their worst loss of the year being in Rd 2 when they were jumped by the Hawks at home. No the issue for Port isn’t their defence it’s their scoring options. Nine times last year the Power failed to score more than 10 goals in a game. Clearly Dixon injured hampered that, but it was the lack of contribution from any small forwards that hurt – no pressure Willie! 4. Games are won and lost in the midfield and I really like the plan they’ve got in place at Port for their midfield. They’ll be hoping Butters is over his ankle and knee issues, Rozee is all class and they have Wines, JHF and Drew as the big bodies to do the bullocking work. It’s hard to know where to place SPP who resurrected himself last year pushing forward into what looked like a high HFF role, but he’s in the mix along with the promising Mead and Burgoyne who Port supporters think will play the majority of the 23 H&A games. After writing all that though I’m still left questioning if overall they just aren’t a bit too inexperienced to be a top contender this season. Only Boak, Wines Lycett and SPP have played more than 100 games*. By contrast nearly all Melbourne’s mids – Gawn, Grundy, Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Harmes, Hunter and Langdon have played over 100 games. Even Dunstan as the depth inside mid has. The only exceptions are Sparrow and JJ. The player they can least afford to lose – you’d think given they were winless without Charlie until rd 6 that it would be him – except they did win 5 of their next 6 without him as well (admittedly against pretty poor teams) his final W/L for the year was 6-6. No - the man they can least afford to lose is none other than the 34 (turning 35) Travis Boak – the guy that came 2nd in their B&F last year, was 2nd in disposals, CP, UP, and Tackles, was 1st in clearances, score assists, score involvements, and I50s. He’s their Mr Everywhere and while Ollie has a Brownlow and Connor the 2022 B&F if Travis doesn’t play the chances of Power winning (particularly when they can’t hear the strains of INXS reverberating through the empty cranial cavities in the AO) are markedly decreased. Overall I think at their best the Power can make the eight, but a lot would have to have a lot go right for them and at least another 3 contenders have every thing go wrong even to sneak into the four. I think it’s more likely they continue to slide and finish around where they did last year. I *other than maybe Duursma it’s hard to factor in their wings until we see how they line up in rd 1.

Yep we're mentally shot - and why would you have any self-belief anyway when you've done bugger all preparation? The difference between winning and losing in professional sport comes down to a combination of talent and the little advantages you can squeeze out of a better understanding of the local conditions - that's providing the attitude and application are the same for both players/sides- when they're not - you don't even need that much talent! It's why the Langer situation will continue to raise it's head - particularly if the Ashes don't go well. It was all about attitude and application under Justin and that can rightly be questioned under the Macdonald/Cummins stewardship based on what we've seen.

Yep, the album cover is a classic: "The album's front cover features a photograph of bassist Paul Simonon smashing his Fender Precision Bass (now on display at the Museum of London, formerly Cleveland Rock and Roll Hall of Fame) against the stage at the Palladium in New York City on 20 September 1979." The avatar is actually a painting by Banksy - it channels two of my favourite anti-establishment artists.

The story from Nagpur was that they had Agar pencilled in for the first test, but because he was bowling so poorly in the nets and Murphy was bowling so well they picked Murphy - similar story to Travis Head who looked all at sea in the nets so was dropped in effect for Renshaw ( I think Handscomb was going to play anyway as a RH). My concern with Cummins as the captain is that he's tentative, he's slow to recognise when he needs to make bowling changes and the game drifts along and India creep another 30 or so runs ahead. The old adage you do the thing the opposition least wants you to seems to elude him. I do think he's a little constrained though by his some of the fields that Lyon sets - for a bloke that's taken 450 test wickets - he still sets very defensive fields - compare that to Warnie and the very attacking fields he used to set. Anyway I'm hoping that Cameron Green is fit for the next test - if so I'd drop Renshaw and open with Head again and play all three spinners again - i'm actually not fussed if they play Agar as the third spinner with Head in the side, if he bowls poorly then don't bowl him, but at least it might stiffen the tail a little. If Cummins isn't back from his dash home in time for the third test I'd bring in Boland again - I don't see much value in picking Starc who has an ordinary record over there anyway.

I probably see more of the Giants than a lot of Melbourne supporters being based here in Canberra. The trouble is they look like a good side on paper, but they just aren't delivering the goods. A regular criticism I've seen from a few unkindly suggest (but perhaps not unfairly) that they seem to play without spirit. The joke I have with a GWS supporting friend is me asking him who kicked three goals in the 2019 GF - I made the point in the Best 44 for Sydney that a bad GF loss can leave some pretty deep psychological scars - and I think that's what we're seeing with the Giants. After 'that' loss they've finished 10th, 6th (the dead cat bounce), and 16th. They've well and truly dropped off the perch. I don't consider GWS a contender, but I think like West Coast that their best might be good enough to push them close to a spot in the eight. The big question mark is can they sustain it for long enough to do that - and I'm saying no they probably can't. There's simply too much to do - They need Phil Davis to play more than he has in the last two years (11&5 matches), but his injury history suggests he's cooked. Himmelberg looked good in defence, but Kingsley wants him to play forward to address the problems there, and players like Riccardi and Buckley that looked good back in 2021 seem to be lost in no man's land. Then there's the likes of Kelly and Whitfield - what Giants supporters wouldn't give for them to have even 10% of Toby's competitiveness. If you take a short term look at history you'd think they won't miss Hopper and Taranto, but if you take a closer look and realise they only played 7 & 16 games respectively and then look at 2021 when they finished 3rd and 4th in the B&F and the Giants finished 6th you'll realise they leave a massive hole that they simply won't be able plug this season. They'll miss Toby Bedford too, because there were high hopes he'd deliver more than Bobby Hill managed to do in his 41 game, 34 goal time at the Giants. It means that they'll have to cycle plenty of youth and NQRs through the side and I think that points to a similar position on the ladder to last year. It was time for Leon to go, and McVeigh found that it was probably easier being an assistant than working out how to turn a team of individual performers into a cohesive footy team pulling in the same direction. Maybe Adam Kingsley is that man, but it won't be in 2023.