grazman

That starting line-up looks just about right - but I'm unconvinced with Fyfe playing as a key forward - but that doesn't mean he won't start the season there. The draw – according to AFL.com Freo have the equal hardest draw, a tough gig for a side that didn’t even make a Prelim. They have double ups against the Lions, Cats, Swans and Dogs with only the Hawks and Eagles providing some respite. Thanks to the ‘gather round' they also have 11 trips on the road as opposed to the previous 10, but they do get back to back games in SA to make it easier. The back end of the fixture will determine their fortunes with four of their last 6 at Optus, but that includes Sydney, Brisbane and Port with a trip to GMHBA thrown in for good measure. Initially I’d factored Freo into my top four calculations based on the back of their outstanding 2022 defensive effort where they gave up 1486 points. (In comparison the other top three defensive teams were us 1483 points and the Cats, 1488 points). There’s no love at the bookies though. Sportsbet has them =9th with the Dogs to make the top four at $15.00 and =9th to make the top eight at $1.91… hmmm what am I missing? 1. Well the first thing I’m missing is that Freo don’t score very heavily as @Bring-Back-Powell noted they ranked 12th last year and they just lost their leading goal scorer to the Dogs. Are they going to miss him? I’m going to say no- firstly because he’s called Rory Lobb and secondly he only kicked 36 goals anyway – that ranked him 29th in the Coleman. They simply have to find more avenues to goal. They need Treacy or Amiss to improve in a hurry, because we all know that Dogga isn’t a key forward at this stage of his career. The smalls in there are wonderful at putting on pressure and the defensive aspects, but they simply don’t kick enough goals to make up for the lack of scoring power from their KPFs. Schulz is probably the best (30 last season), but they need more out of Switkoski (11 from 14 games) and Sonny (25 from 21 games). I can understand why the brought in Josh Corbett – trouble is he averages less than a goal a game – I’d be calling for a test of his B samples if he got more than 2 goals a game consistently. 2. Well there’s not much to say about their defence. It’s superb and they seem to have all bases covered. If you want anymore evidence, a premiership defender and someone I consider quite a useful KPD in Joel Hamling couldn’t crack it for more than a single game last year…. Nothing to worry about defensively from the Dockers. 3. Nor do I think there are too many concerns for them through the midfield with maybe the exception of the wings. Darcy and Jackson in the ruck looks better than OK, Brodie, Brayshaw and Serong through the middle and probably dual Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe as well if he doesn’t make it as a forward. O’Meara comes in to take over Mundy’s midfield minutes – so nothing to see there either. The wings though are an issue. I’m not convinced Liam Henry is actually a gut running winger. I think they’ll give the jobs to Aish and O’Driscoll to start with, but may need to push a Jordan Clark or Hayden Young up there to provide some coverage as well. 4. Do they miss Logue, Acres and Lobb? Well two of them (Logue and Lobb) were top 10 in their B&F and they played 20,20 & 21 games respectively – so they were all key components of their best 22 – so yeah they probably do. Even if they’ve got guys like O’Meara and Jackson they think will play 22 games when available – it’s not exactly like for like. They also have Erasmus, and Sturt champing at the bit to get their opportunity. They’re crossing their fingers their former skipper can be turned into a KPF, but I think that’s wildly optimistic – I think if he was going to be any good as a key forward he would have already – just my view though. The player they can least afford to lose – well no surprises that it’s Matt Taberner. They need him to play a full complement of games this year – it’s absolutely crucial. I mentioned Treacy and Amiss – too early to consider them serious planks in the KPF structure. The issue is though that Freo supporters can hope Tabs plays 22 H&A games, but they have no right to expect it. After 10 seasons he average only 11.6 games a season and the most he’s ever played is 17 (2016). If he’s sitting in the medical rooms again for an extended period the people at Sportsbet are probably on the money (as bookies usually are). I think they will suffocate sides at home – can they win on the road – yes, but they probably don’t kick a big enough score to beat the better sides away from Optus. I’ve revised my prediction and have them 6th.

My starting line up is pretty much the same as @WERRIDEE though I think they’ll go with Keath ahead of Darcy who may or may not continue in defence. It would be hard to know with Bevo the King of spinning magnets. The Draw The bad news– They play the Cats, Tigers, Freo and Port twice. The good news is they play GWS and Hawthorn twice. They also start the season with us at the MCG and then the Saints before playing Brisbane(H), Richmond (A), Port(A), and Freo(A). They’d want to be on their mettle coming off the preseason or the season could almost be out of reach for them before we get to May. 1. The Doggies are the most difficult side to make predictions on and have been ever since Bevo took the reins in 2015. They are an intriguing proposition, having won a premiership and made a GF in his time there, but they have never finished top 4 at the end of the H&A season with him as coach (though came mighty close in 2021). In fact the last time they made the top 4 was 2010. So what to make of them going into 2023 because on paper they appear to be strong enough contender for the flag? They’ve picked up what would appear some missing pieces in Liam Jones and Rory Lobb, and while Dunkley might be considered a loss, clearly Lachie Hunter and Josh Schache weren’t required players – nor for that matter was Mitch Wallis who was delisted – but will they be missed? Only the fullness of time will tell, but I think the ledger is tipped more towards the red than the black which I will discuss below. 2. If you’ve read the previous three dives I’ve done into Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton you may have noticed a recurring theme in terms of key factors I value in separating the contenders from the pretenders that is Defence and Contested Possessions. I’d have to say that this isn’t any original thinking on my behalf, nor did I steal it from David King – these are key stats that many others rely on and have been around for a while and the Dogs over Bevo’s time help illustrate at least the first point. In recent times the premier has always been one of the best three defensive teams in the competition. Since 2015 the Dogs in defence have ranked 7th, 3rd (2016), 8th, 13th, 12th, 10th, 4th (2021*) and 11th. In 2006 the Eagles finished 4th defensively and won the premiership – only twice since then in 2013-14 were the Hawks able to do it (5th) – but they were also a 50 goal better side than the next best team as well. Contested Possessions isn’t as compelling and sides like Geelong last year and Richmond previously have demonstrated you don’t need to be anything special in this area, providing you can offset it by being efficient with ball in hand or finding other ways to get the ball off the opposition. The Dogs by the way were second last for intercepts in the competition last year which segues into my next topic. 3. If the question were ‘Is the Doggies defence capable of being a top 3 side with the addition of Liam Jones this season?’ the simple answer is No. They have two AA half-back flankers in Dale and Daniel and that’s an excellent start, but then it gets a bit patchy. Richards and Duryea are more than handy small foils back there, but when you look at the other smalls that have rotated through there in the last few season most seem to have question marks over them and where their best positions are (as we return to Bevo spinning magnets). Williams now seems to be preferred on the wing after some wobbly moments in defence, Crozier couldn’t cement a spot back there last year after a serviceable start crossing from Freo, Roarke Smith has been in and out as has JJ for injury reasons, but isn’t really a backman anymore. Then we switch to the talls. Does Jones help – you’d think so – 2nd worst intercept side and not a single player in the top 50 in the AFL for Defensive 1v1s (https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html). The trouble is Jones will be 32 when he shapes up for round 1 and the other talls ‘could’ be OK on their day, but aren’t A grade KPDs. Ryan Gardner looks like being the safest bet to team with Jones and had a good season last year and while Keath tries hard and was busted by seasons end there are question marks over whether he can return to his 2021 form – he probably can, but if he doesn’t then the cupboard is getting bare, so bare they’ve been experimenting with Josh Bruce back there during the preseason. O’Brien I’ve never been sold on and his 11 games last year after crossing from the Hawks before playing out the year in the VFL probably indicates that Bevo isn’t sold either. Khamis and Busslinger are too young and inexperienced to be consistently effective and that leaves Darcy who was trialled back there last year… another nice segue. 4. Darcy forward or back? To me he looks like the 2nd Ruck/KPF apprentice which is what he did in U18s, but then Bevo throws him back as an intercepting tall at the back end of 2022. With Jones back they probably don’t need him to play that role, but they also went and got Lobb the player other supporters love to hate – more on him in a sec. Naughton is top shelf and JUH is starting to come into his own, but the Dogs rely heavily on goals from their midfield with Cody Weightman being the only consistent small forward for them. It seems like they’ve got massive hopes for Charlie Clarke to be the second small, but in his rookie season that’s a little too early. I can’t see a place there for Bruce if Lobb plays – you know the bloke that doesn’t want to ruck, doesn’t want to play at the Giants, doesn’t want to stay at Freo,– the guy that the footy world regards as the failed ‘Great Peroxide White Hope’ because he’s never lived up to the hype…. Can Doggies Fans expect him to revolutionise the way their forward line functions – again the answer is no. What they can expect is what he has delivered as a tall forward/2nd Ruck going into his 10th season averaging 11 disposals, 4 marks, 11 hitouts and 1 goal again – Mehhh not much better than Luke Jackson whose barely played 3 seasons. 5. Does Dunkley and Hunter leaving weaken their midfield? Well- yes and no. No because Hunter only played the 10 games last year and had fallen out with the coach (he did play all 25 matches in 2021 though), no because they were struggling to fit Dunkley into the packed midfield rotation with the quality of Bont, Macrae, Libba, Treloar. (He found himself on the HFF for longer than he would have liked). Yes, because both Hunter(2018) and Dunkley (2022) are both B&F winners – they can seriously play footy and you shouldn’t be making a habit of losing guys like that. Yes because there’s no natural replacement to play on the wing for Lachie or another player that immediately steps into the midfield and racks up 260 CP and plays with that defensive mindset that Josh did. I’m leaning towards their midfield will be weaker, but by how much remains to be seen whether guys like Bailey Smith (the #1 turnover player in the competition) and Riley West step up to fill the void. The player they can least afford to lose - given the amount of time discussing their defensive woes I was tempted to put down Liam Jones, or perhaps Caleb Daniel the man they rely on to pilot them out of the treacherous waters off half back. In the end though it has to be Bont, He picks this team up and carries them on his shoulders, but last year those shoulders looked really sore. He played 22 of 23 games last year with one week off being managed, but he wasn't right all year and it was the first time since his debut year he's finished lower than 3rd in their B&F. It's absolutely vital for them he's back playing closer to 90% this season than where he was last year. Am I any the wiser on what the Dogs will do this year… not really, but safe to say neither is the market they’re currently middle of the pack (=9th) with Freo to make the top four and the top eight. It seems no one is quite sure what they will do. Can they make the top 4 – yes, Will they make the top 4 – nope. They’ll be there in the eight, but they need a lot to go right for them to repeat the heroics of 2016 & 2021 and I’m not sure lightning will strike three times. I’ve got them finishing eighth. *They were playing statistically the best defensive side in living memory - we all recall with great delight the floodgates opening with 35 minutes left to go. I think the Doggies were still searching for answers half way through last season to figure out what went wrong.

@WERRIDEEI I have a slightly different starting line-up - though Newman for Williams is an obvious change given the laters' ACL. I have Fisher, Hewett and De Koning all in the starting XVIII at the expense of Durdin, Martin and Pittonet. It's probably a case of splitting hairs, but while Durdin was a revelation last year playing 21 games he's still young and could drop off, whereas Fisher played all 22 and was 7th in the B&F (yes- I was surprised too). De Koning I think will assume the #1 ruck. Pittonet was injured, I know, and came back in for the last 2 games of the year at TDs expense – TD is more mobile and has more upside. I think both will probably play anyway with 5 on the bench now. Jack Martin has to be one of the most frustrating footballers on any list - he shows glimpses of his sublime talent, but that's all they are glimpses. He's forever in the medical rooms (38 games in 3 seasons since crossing on big money) and there were 20 other blokes that played more senior games than he did last year. I’d have Owies and Cottrell (depending on his foot) in ahead of him and Hewett will definitely be picked before Jack will, but I'll cover more on him a bit later. So the draw: The Blues play us and the Pies twice - they also have return bouts against, GCS, GWS, Saints and West Coast... on paper at least based on last years form Blues fans would be pretty happy. It gets even between when you see the full draw. They've got two 5 day breaks and three 6 day breaks leading into the bye – the rest is very generous particularly as they have big blocks of very winnable games to get on a roll. If they haven't at least 8 wins on the board by the bye (I think they could go 15-16 wins for the season) the Blues faithful should be baying for Voss' blood. 1. So let's start at the coal face. The contested possession count – this probably reflects not only the game plan of the respective sides, but the way both senior coaches actually played the game back in the day. Melbourne were the #1 contested possession side last year (3238 in total after round 23) but Carlton was a close second (3200 after round 23). We had four players get over 200 CP (Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn), Carlton had only two with Cripps and Walsh, but Hewett was 3rd with 190 and missed 7 games (so logically would have likely got over 200 if he'd played every game). Matt Kennedy had 188 CP but missed 5 matches. I’m not sure that the title of being the top CP team means that much, and it isn’t the be all and end all (after all Richmond managed three flags being a middle of the road CP side) but it is an indication of how they like to play the game and when the Blues get it right they’re a contender for sure. For the record the Crows were third, Suns fourth, Lions fifth and Swans sixth. Geelong ranked 12thbut all five of their top five CP winners had over 200 CP – so it’s a very uneven spread. 2. The midfield. Walsh injured early hurts, but if he’s managed properly and back to his 2022 form by May/June, then it’s only a minor hiccup. Winners of Charlie usually struggle to replicate the heights they reached in the previous season, but even given that they can afford a small drop off from Cripps if they manage to get 20+ games out of two of their less high profile, but absolutely vital midfield generals. There’s a reason why Carlton were flying early in 2022 and it was off the back of career highs for two mids. Matt Kennedy averaged 24.47 (11contested) disposals in 2022 that's more than 6 better than in any other season he's played. George Hewett averaged 28.47 (12.47 contested) that more than 7 better than in any other season he's played. - You can see where this is going. Patrick Cripps should be giving each of them some royalties for the endorsements he's got for winning a Brownlow - without them he and Walsh are back to playing as a duet in the contested possession orchestra, rather than the full ensemble. The common view is that Carlton bottled their season last year, my view is that injuries got them - Hewett in particular is a first string mid with the Blues right next to Cripps and Walsh. He does the unfashionable defensive mid role- but he's super important as is Kennedy who I personally think was the biggest improver of 2022. No wonder the Blues dropped their last four games when they weren’t available. Acres on one wing and perhaps Cerra, perhaps Cottrell, mean they should have better options than most teams for that role. 3. It’s not a bad attacking line-up when you have two Coleman medallists as your two key pillars. What they’re lacking though is a classy small forward that can kick 40+ goals a season (like a Kozzie Pickett for example). Motlop and to a lesser extent Owies and Durdin showed that they could be the smalls needed at the feet of the bigger guys, but it still tends to be all or nothing for the Blues if either Charlie or Harry can’t kick a bag. They need to find a way to spread the goals a little more evenly. I have a mate who is Blues fan and whose footy brain I rate highly – the two Blues he dislikes playing are Silvagni and Fisher – his thoughts are that they muck up too many scoring chains- he just doesn't like their decision making. He’s perhaps being a little unfair on Fisher, but I can see his point with Jack. It might be an interesting year for him as he doesn’t have any real tricks that make him the obvious choice over resting a tall like TD forward or playing a more mobile Corey Durdin, Josh Honey, Lachie Fogarty or dare I say Jack Martin if he can ever put it together. 4. Defence – on first blush I thought this would be an issue for the Blues even before Zac Williams injury and maybe it still will be. With Weitering they have one of the league’s best KPD. Young came into his own last year showing far more than he ever did at the Dogs, but it’s still a small sample size to see how he would go as the #1 defensive tall if he has to assume that mantle. Marchbank is probably the competition’s unluckiest player, but if he can get on the park they have three really good tall options to partner McGovern – provided he can maintain that intercept marking form (though again only a small sample size). I said before I’m not a fan of Plowman – he’s a weak link in defence, undersized as a Key Back and too ungainly/slow to effectively play on a small – just my view. Saad is extremely lucky to be an AA IMHO ahead of say Angus Brayshaw or maybe even Sam Docherty who was the Blues B&F runner up. Newman provides a good lockdown option, but they’ll probably need to find at least one more speedy runner with good penetration to replace Williams – who I’m seeing as a loss – just a loss at this stage, neither minor, nor major. It is the one area they do need to improve on though to become a genuine premiership threat. There were three standout defensive teams last year and Carlton weren't one of them. They ranked sixth only one point above the Saints and in the same bracket as Richmond and the Lions - so not terrible, but not great either. 5. The player they can least afford to lose – it was a toss up, but I settled on Weitering. Charlie, Harry, Sam and Patrick are all in the best six for Carlton. So is Jacob – clearly, absolutely, indubitably, but no other tall back would be in the conversation and that’s a problem for the Blues – how do they cover him going down? (with great difficulty) It’s weird – or at least I think it’s weird that their VC wasn’t even in their top 10 for their B&F last season… but maybe that has something to do with the fact that none of their coaching group last year was a defender. Maybe Tom Lonergan addresses the issue this year because if Weitering isn’t in their five best players week in week out, then I’ll go heave. Sportsbet has the Blues knocking on the door of the top four this year at $9.50- they’re paying $1.40 to make the eight. It’s a human trait to pattern match – though sometimes we see patterns where none exist. I don’t think there were any real similarities between our 2017 season and the Blues, except for the disappointment both sides would have felt about a missed opportunity. So it doesn't necessarily follow that the Blues automatically play in a Prelim this year because or what happened last year, except I actually think they will because I think they have a game style that lends itself to finals success. It hasn’t been a good preseason in terms of the injury front, but it hasn’t been terminal either, I think they’ll recover and I think they will find a way to sneak into the four, but that’s the problem I currently have six teams in my top four.

Bailey is important because he gives them pace. Without him they're slow through the middle of the ground - Dunkley for Lyons doesn't exactly balance the equation either. Zorko and Rich as good as they are at kicking it, don't cover ground quickly -Coleman is the counterweight and maybe McKenna helps address that as well, but it's a big question mark on him.

Again @WERRIDEEI think your starting 18 is very similar to mine, though obviously Adams is replaced by Payne and it's a toss of the coin for me between the 34 year old Zorko with a dodgy hammy and the the 31 year old Jarryd Lyons who played every H&A game last year but was overlooked for the finals. Effectively they've both been replaced in the midfield by Dunkley and will play limited minutes through the middle anyway barring injury. So the draw: The Lions play Us, Freo, Collingwood, GCS, Adelaide, and Saints twice. Based on last years form they should easily account for the last two but the Suns should be a more difficult proposition this season. They have four tough games to start the year against Port (although admittedly the Lions are the Power's bogey side), Us, the Doggies and Pies. The rest of the draw seems pretty favourable and they play a lot of last years finalists (Swans, Tigers, Cats, Freo) at home. They've almost a certainty to play finals (currently on the third line of the betting for the premiership at $8.00 on sportsbet) and many have them locked into the top four, but I'm still doubtful. 1. Brisbane for mine are the quintessential faux tough side - they beat up on sides at home, but they tend to fold under real physical pressure. Which isn't to say that they don't have some footballers I admire very much. Lachie Neale, Charlie Cameron, the big O, Starcevich are all fighters that give their all. I'd put McStay and Robinson in that category too, but they're gone. Of course this might sound like sour grapes after last years final series, where they beat us when we've had the wood on them and managed to win at the MCG for the first time in 7 years, but the counter argument to that was their two finals wins were against Richmond without Prestia (narrowly) and of course our issues at the end of the season were well known. Yes this really does sound like a Melbourne supporter cracking the sads and my opinion means SFA, but the expectations of the footy world are pretty high for the Lions to do it again and not revert to type like when they won only 1 final in 6 appearance in the previous three seasons. I'm betting on them reverting to type and here's why. 2. The best defensive sides in the competition usually play off for a place in the GF. I expect this year it will be pretty much the same as last year in terms of the three stand out defensive teams - namely Us, Geelong and Freo. Brisbane were 10th. Here's the rub they just lost Marcus Adams for the year with concussion. He was an unspectacular, but solid defender and until he was concussed in rd 21 last year had only missed two games for them- how much worse will they be defensively without him? His likely replacement Jack Payne is tall enough (197cms) but has 27 senior appearances including 12 last year (so not a regular) which places a lot of heavy emphasis on Harris Andrews being the general back there. It's a responsibility I don't think he has shouldered well - but more on him later. The third tall gets covered by the 192cm Gardiner who tries hard, but he's undersized*, the only other options are the similarly undersized Ryan Lester or Darragh Joyce the ex Saints defender whose been thrown a rookie life line. The rest of the defence looks solid and they have good (at time excellent) users of the ball back there but there would be concerns on the ability of the ageing legs of Zorko and Rich and the risk of injury. Starcevich and Coleman are both very, very solid. Connor McKenna is unknown, but his final year before he left Essendon wasn't flash and to me he's all sizzle and no steak as a defender. In short the issue with the Lions defence wasn't using the ball coming out of the fifty it was the ability to stop scores once it got in there - that hasn't been fixed in terms of personnel from what I can see, in fact it's likely to be worse. 3. Scoring hasn't been the Lions problem in the last few seasons, but again the issue for me is who kicks the goals for them. Ostensibly their main man in attack is Charlie Cameron, he's been their leading goal kicker for the last four seasons which begs the question for me as to where the hell are Daniher and Hipwood? For the record only in 2021 did one of them (Joe) kick more than 40 goals in a season for the Lions. They appear to be the mercurial tall forwards who can turn it on, but rarely do it consistently - they certainly aren't dominating like key forwards. Maybe that will be Jack Gunston, the three time leading goal kicker at the Hawks if his back holds up. But Jack is no Dan McStay who also didn't kick many goals for the Lions but he did do a power of work up and down the lines a la Tommy 'Carnivore' McDonald. He isn't a like for like replacement. That puts the heat on one of Daniher or Hipwood to shoulder that burden - and let my bias shine through even more brightly here - I doubt either of them has the ticker for the work load required - not that I've seen anyway. 4. The additions of Dunkley, Ashcroft and Fletcher will make the Lions midfield stronger, but the issue is when. We see that sometimes it takes at least a season even for experienced players to gell with a new side. No pressure on the first year draftees either to step in and do what Nick Daicos did ... Dunkley found himself playing more HFF at the Dogs at the end of last year, he's brave and gets first hands on the ball (260 contested possessions last year). Along with Neale (400 ), McCluggage (216) he makes a more than adequate replacement for Lyons(205) who finds himself relegated. I like Dunkley and the Lions like that he runs both ways - but he does butcher the ball by foot. So here's another interesting stat... Neale and McCluggage were the top two for disposals last year - followed by the 33 year old Rich, the 31 year old Lyons and the 34 year old Zorko - Lyons was also 10th in the competition in terms of clearances (Neale was 2nd and Clarrie was of course 1st) so it might be premature to right Lyons off just yet. Rich and Zorko make sense they are wonderful kicks of the footy, but like I said before... father time. I like Robertson as an option. 5. The positive for me with the Lions is that I like their ruck division, the Big O and Fort should be able to play more time together with five on the bench now. They are both imposing ruckman, and they have adequate coverage. Big O is similar to Max in that he wins a lot of clearances and contested possessions himself and he covers the ground fairly well. I think they're one of very few sides that won't be as worried as others over the thoughts of how the combat the tap brothers. 6. Their most important player. - Given their defensive issues it has to be Harris Andrews. It's a massive problem if he goes down - i've already discussed their lack of cover for defensive talls - the problem I have with Harris is that he seems to have very little lateral deviation when he plays at the moment. He's stuck on tram lines so against more mobile players he's just not the same AA defender we saw a few years ago, but he does organise their defence - which is probably why he looks distracted at times allowing his direct opponent to slip away. I saw signs that he was improving these issues towards the back end of last season - but I think he's even more critical than Lachie Neale to their fortunes because without him the hole in their defensive dyke becomes a massive structural failure. Finally the assumption that I need to challenge for myself is that the Lions will revert to type and will continue to falter against teams that bring the heat and continue to struggle to win away from the Gabbatoire which makes a top 2 finish essential for them to have any realistic shot at a premiership. Yes, they've improved in the midfield (at least on paper at this stage), but I just can't get past that their defence has been their achilles (and let's not forget against Geelong in the Prelim they got pantsed) and will actually be worse this year than in previous years. Premierships are usually won by one of the best three defensive teams and that aint the Lions. I think they could easily be in the top four, but for me I'm tipping them to finish just outside. * yes I know Adams was 192 cms as well, but he was a very good one on one defender who used his body well - he'll be missed.

Actually I did in point 2, but I agree he's important - 2nd in their B&F and maybe they continue to push him up onto a wing but I think he is more a half back, maybe my bias but I don't see him as a genuine winger like Lingers. The class they have tends to be off half back (Dawson, Smith, Milera) and now at half forward with Rankine and Rachele - they need some through the midfield.

Thanks @WERRIDEE, it's good to see what others think of the opposition for the up coming season. I'm going through every team and trying get a handle on their strengths and weaknesses to make my preseason forecasts and this includes challenging the assumptions I hold that could well be a serious case of confirmation bias such is my antipathy for the other 17 teams (vale Fitzroy who were the only team that came close to being my second side). Making my prognostications I try to list the best 18 and then the next 10 best players (most sides will use somewhere around 38-40 players over the course of a season). Typically I disregard 1st year draftees as some like Nick Daicos will be very good, but the overwhelming majority only have cameo moments and are rarely influential on the outcome of where sides finish. I think the starting 18 is just about right - although you could mount an argument for Shane McAdam who came 7th in their B&F to be at least in the 22 if not on the ground. So the draw: They play Brisbane, Port Collingwood, GCS, GWS and West Coast twice. Based on last years form, only the last two I'm counting as gimmes. They have a first up hitout away against the Giants before playing a block of tough matches against top eight aspirants in Richmond, Port, Freo and Carlton before they draw breath against the Hawks in Tassie. They then play Collingwood, the Cats, Dogs, Lions and Suns (away) in the next five weeks. I think its a possibility that they could be 3-10 going into the bye. 1. Darren Burgess- so we know they were significantly fitter last year and I expect that to repeat itself - won't have any problems running games out. 2. Defence seems to have all the right pieces in place with enough spread of age and experience. Worrell is light on for games and I've penciled him in for key position post along with Butts and Doedee who are solid talls, Smith, Dawson, Milera provide good run and quality ball use, and I'm a fan of Nick Murray as a lockdown defender. 3. Rucks. O'Brien is a good ruckman and Thilthorpe is developing well. The only other ruckman is Kieran Strachan who won the Crows SANFL B&F and made the SANFL team of the year, but with only five games to his name, if O'Brien goes down (only missed two games last year when he was dropped) 4. Contested Ball winners. They had two last year (Laird and Keays) that had more than 200 CP(we had 4). I know they were missing Sloane (33 this year and coming back from an ACL) and Crouch is on the outer and it will be interesting to see if he forces his way back in or if his ticket has been punched. They really need a Soligo, Berry or Sholl to really make an impact this year, but I'm not sure they can address this in one season. I know they have high hopes for Luke Pedlar, but he's unlikely to do that after only 5 senior games. I know they were ranked 3rd overall for CPs as a team, but it's a very uneven spread in terms of workload and it's why initially I thought the player they could least afford to lose to injury was Rory Laird. 5. Class - their forward line has it with Rachele and Rankine, but they need it in the midfield - as hard as they work, and tackle they lack big bodies and powerful brutes to break a game open. Keays, Hinge, Berry, Sloane, Schoenberg are all honest players, but I doubt one of them forces their way into a top four midfield - well with the exception of Laird. Anyone that's getting 360 CPs in a season is worth a spot in your midfield. To me the player that sums up Adelaide is Ben Keays. An honest hard worker that gives his all for the team, but in the back of your mind he's the place marker for the classy midfielder you need to draft/trade into the team. The other big problem is the wings... with no Seedsman now they seem to be rather thin in this under-rated department. 6. Their most important player. - initially I had their B&F winner Rory Laird - but I've swapped it to the big Texan. Without him I just don't think their forward line can work. Fogarty made big improvements last year - but without Tex he gets the best defender and Thilthorpe the second best tall - I think it's probably a season too soon for that for both of them. Tex is 33 this year and while there's no reason to believe he can't maintain that form (for some reason tall forwards don't decline as sharply with age as other footballers), the older a player gets the more you worry about how prone they are to getting injured and how long it will take them to recover. Is he due for an on-field injury as opposed to his self-inflicted off-field damage? The assumption I need to challenge is that Adelaide and Matthew Nicks will continue to build on their development over the last three seasons, 3 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins. There'll be high hopes for a 10 - 12 win season. Football trajectories are rarely linear though and I can see a slide on the cards for Adelaide. I have too many concerns to have them winning more than 7-8 games, and if things go really wrong as they could with only the 2nd youngest and 2nd least experienced list in the comp it might be a difficult season for them. I can see a scenario where they finish bottom four, but not one where they finish higher than 10th.

Can anyone explain how Ashton Agar who has played only one first class match this season for only one wicket and averages over 40 with the ball in first class matches was preferred as the second spinner ahead of Swepson or Murphy? Surely they can't be considering him as the second spinner in India.

Brad Scott has come out and clarified expectations with Essendon supporters - they shouldn't expect to see any improvement in the short term as they have a very young list and the need to improve standards... that's coach talk for it's going to get worse before it gets better. It will also be interesting to watch to see who finishes lower on the ladder between North and Hawthorn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Hawks won the spoon.

and importantly was he with the backs or forwards?

Remind me again of who Gill barracks for? 🤔

Also a little unreasonable to expect him to tell the club five minutes after having had a premiership medal hung around his neck to make a decision on his long term future at the club when he's celebrating with his team mates. People seem to have conveniently forgotten that after we courted Cerra, Freo asked for Jackson in exchange and we knocked them back.

The trouble with that is that it’s unlikely to net pick 1 and you risk disrupting the culture by pushing blokes unwillingly out the door ( would you go to North if you were Harmes?)

Looks like he's likely to go #2 behind Ashcroft. Fox Footy that GWS are very keen to get North to split their first for pick 3 and a later first rounder so they can grab him. I think North need him as well and might have second thoughts about splitting their pick particularly if they can get pick 2 from West Coast via Port for JHF.

Freo have to do this deal. They've offered Jackson big money on a long term contract if they can't get it done then it looks bad for them not only in the eyes of Jacko, but Footy managers and other potential targets. I think the footy world in general regards their initial offer as unders, so they need to find a sweetner or they look silly. Freo apparently want to use the Logue F2 pick to get Jeremy Sharp, they also want to hang onto Lobb... they want their cake and eat it too, but mostly it's just posturing.

From what I've heard Haynes' contract is heavily back-ended. He's a very good player, but I suspect that GWS won't salary dump otherwise would be well worth a look.

There's two big issues with Whitfield (assuming he's over running away from ASADA testing). The first is that he's on a massive Brodie Grundy like contract. The second is we'd need to have a thorough medical investigation. He hasn't looked right since coming back from a very serious illness and I'm not sure whether that will impact his footy into the future.

I think I've worked out Peter Bell's approach to trading.... A man walks into a luxury car yard and tells the salesman, "I'll take the red Ferrari" The salesman tells him that will be 250K. Peter Bell opens up his wallet. "I've only got $20 - that will have to do"

Well if he comes to us he'll have to get used to not getting a free for ducking then because we're not the umpires darlings.

Game plan related? Hunt has pace, from what others are saying that is Bowes achilles heel.

Was he? Jon Ralph 'On the Couch' a few weeks ago stated that the club had put a two year deal in front of Jayden.

His step dad is former Port Adelaide player Fabian Francis (also a former Melbourne U19 player I think). I think with everything that is going on at North with Clarkson it is potentially going to end in a bunfight if North dig their heels in and refuse to trade him. Having said that I don't think pick 8 and a future first round pick from a side that played in a prelim final 12 months ago is enough for last year's #1 pick... which is why I think they'll need to trade a player out like Georgiades.

We'll have more leverage next year when he's OOC. I doubt he does a JHF and asks to be traded in-contract.

Maybe we should help Port out and give them one of the first round draft picks we get for Jacko so they can package that up with their existing 1st pick to get JHF. All we'd be looking for in return is Georgiades.

If we're not we should be. I know from a GWS point of view he was offered an extension beyond the standard 2 years he signed as a first round pick. He hasn't signed that extension...