grazman

Thanks @WERRIDEE, it's good to see what others think of the opposition for the up coming season. I'm going through every team and trying get a handle on their strengths and weaknesses to make my preseason forecasts and this includes challenging the assumptions I hold that could well be a serious case of confirmation bias such is my antipathy for the other 17 teams (vale Fitzroy who were the only team that came close to being my second side). Making my prognostications I try to list the best 18 and then the next 10 best players (most sides will use somewhere around 38-40 players over the course of a season). Typically I disregard 1st year draftees as some like Nick Daicos will be very good, but the overwhelming majority only have cameo moments and are rarely influential on the outcome of where sides finish. I think the starting 18 is just about right - although you could mount an argument for Shane McAdam who came 7th in their B&F to be at least in the 22 if not on the ground. So the draw: They play Brisbane, Port Collingwood, GCS, GWS and West Coast twice. Based on last years form, only the last two I'm counting as gimmes. They have a first up hitout away against the Giants before playing a block of tough matches against top eight aspirants in Richmond, Port, Freo and Carlton before they draw breath against the Hawks in Tassie. They then play Collingwood, the Cats, Dogs, Lions and Suns (away) in the next five weeks. I think its a possibility that they could be 3-10 going into the bye. 1. Darren Burgess- so we know they were significantly fitter last year and I expect that to repeat itself - won't have any problems running games out. 2. Defence seems to have all the right pieces in place with enough spread of age and experience. Worrell is light on for games and I've penciled him in for key position post along with Butts and Doedee who are solid talls, Smith, Dawson, Milera provide good run and quality ball use, and I'm a fan of Nick Murray as a lockdown defender. 3. Rucks. O'Brien is a good ruckman and Thilthorpe is developing well. The only other ruckman is Kieran Strachan who won the Crows SANFL B&F and made the SANFL team of the year, but with only five games to his name, if O'Brien goes down (only missed two games last year when he was dropped) 4. Contested Ball winners. They had two last year (Laird and Keays) that had more than 200 CP(we had 4). I know they were missing Sloane (33 this year and coming back from an ACL) and Crouch is on the outer and it will be interesting to see if he forces his way back in or if his ticket has been punched. They really need a Soligo, Berry or Sholl to really make an impact this year, but I'm not sure they can address this in one season. I know they have high hopes for Luke Pedlar, but he's unlikely to do that after only 5 senior games. I know they were ranked 3rd overall for CPs as a team, but it's a very uneven spread in terms of workload and it's why initially I thought the player they could least afford to lose to injury was Rory Laird. 5. Class - their forward line has it with Rachele and Rankine, but they need it in the midfield - as hard as they work, and tackle they lack big bodies and powerful brutes to break a game open. Keays, Hinge, Berry, Sloane, Schoenberg are all honest players, but I doubt one of them forces their way into a top four midfield - well with the exception of Laird. Anyone that's getting 360 CPs in a season is worth a spot in your midfield. To me the player that sums up Adelaide is Ben Keays. An honest hard worker that gives his all for the team, but in the back of your mind he's the place marker for the classy midfielder you need to draft/trade into the team. The other big problem is the wings... with no Seedsman now they seem to be rather thin in this under-rated department. 6. Their most important player. - initially I had their B&F winner Rory Laird - but I've swapped it to the big Texan. Without him I just don't think their forward line can work. Fogarty made big improvements last year - but without Tex he gets the best defender and Thilthorpe the second best tall - I think it's probably a season too soon for that for both of them. Tex is 33 this year and while there's no reason to believe he can't maintain that form (for some reason tall forwards don't decline as sharply with age as other footballers), the older a player gets the more you worry about how prone they are to getting injured and how long it will take them to recover. Is he due for an on-field injury as opposed to his self-inflicted off-field damage? The assumption I need to challenge is that Adelaide and Matthew Nicks will continue to build on their development over the last three seasons, 3 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins. There'll be high hopes for a 10 - 12 win season. Football trajectories are rarely linear though and I can see a slide on the cards for Adelaide. I have too many concerns to have them winning more than 7-8 games, and if things go really wrong as they could with only the 2nd youngest and 2nd least experienced list in the comp it might be a difficult season for them. I can see a scenario where they finish bottom four, but not one where they finish higher than 10th.

Can anyone explain how Ashton Agar who has played only one first class match this season for only one wicket and averages over 40 with the ball in first class matches was preferred as the second spinner ahead of Swepson or Murphy? Surely they can't be considering him as the second spinner in India.

Brad Scott has come out and clarified expectations with Essendon supporters - they shouldn't expect to see any improvement in the short term as they have a very young list and the need to improve standards... that's coach talk for it's going to get worse before it gets better. It will also be interesting to watch to see who finishes lower on the ladder between North and Hawthorn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Hawks won the spoon.

and importantly was he with the backs or forwards?

Remind me again of who Gill barracks for? 🤔

Also a little unreasonable to expect him to tell the club five minutes after having had a premiership medal hung around his neck to make a decision on his long term future at the club when he's celebrating with his team mates. People seem to have conveniently forgotten that after we courted Cerra, Freo asked for Jackson in exchange and we knocked them back.

The trouble with that is that it’s unlikely to net pick 1 and you risk disrupting the culture by pushing blokes unwillingly out the door ( would you go to North if you were Harmes?)

Looks like he's likely to go #2 behind Ashcroft. Fox Footy that GWS are very keen to get North to split their first for pick 3 and a later first rounder so they can grab him. I think North need him as well and might have second thoughts about splitting their pick particularly if they can get pick 2 from West Coast via Port for JHF.

Freo have to do this deal. They've offered Jackson big money on a long term contract if they can't get it done then it looks bad for them not only in the eyes of Jacko, but Footy managers and other potential targets. I think the footy world in general regards their initial offer as unders, so they need to find a sweetner or they look silly. Freo apparently want to use the Logue F2 pick to get Jeremy Sharp, they also want to hang onto Lobb... they want their cake and eat it too, but mostly it's just posturing.

From what I've heard Haynes' contract is heavily back-ended. He's a very good player, but I suspect that GWS won't salary dump otherwise would be well worth a look.

There's two big issues with Whitfield (assuming he's over running away from ASADA testing). The first is that he's on a massive Brodie Grundy like contract. The second is we'd need to have a thorough medical investigation. He hasn't looked right since coming back from a very serious illness and I'm not sure whether that will impact his footy into the future.

I think I've worked out Peter Bell's approach to trading.... A man walks into a luxury car yard and tells the salesman, "I'll take the red Ferrari" The salesman tells him that will be 250K. Peter Bell opens up his wallet. "I've only got $20 - that will have to do"

Well if he comes to us he'll have to get used to not getting a free for ducking then because we're not the umpires darlings.

Game plan related? Hunt has pace, from what others are saying that is Bowes achilles heel.

Was he? Jon Ralph 'On the Couch' a few weeks ago stated that the club had put a two year deal in front of Jayden.

His step dad is former Port Adelaide player Fabian Francis (also a former Melbourne U19 player I think). I think with everything that is going on at North with Clarkson it is potentially going to end in a bunfight if North dig their heels in and refuse to trade him. Having said that I don't think pick 8 and a future first round pick from a side that played in a prelim final 12 months ago is enough for last year's #1 pick... which is why I think they'll need to trade a player out like Georgiades.

We'll have more leverage next year when he's OOC. I doubt he does a JHF and asks to be traded in-contract.

Maybe we should help Port out and give them one of the first round draft picks we get for Jacko so they can package that up with their existing 1st pick to get JHF. All we'd be looking for in return is Georgiades.

If we're not we should be. I know from a GWS point of view he was offered an extension beyond the standard 2 years he signed as a first round pick. He hasn't signed that extension...

If GWS get what they're asking for for Hopper, Taranto, and Bruhn they'll have six first round picks. I think there's a real good chance they trade out pick 21.

I think Hipwood was taken as a Lions Academy product.

I disagree, Freo aren’t giving up two firsts and a first 18 player for Jackson …. That’s three players for one (albeit now marquee player) it’s just a little too high. Clubs have learnt from the cost/benefit equation of the Judd precedent when bringing in talent. Pick #1 is fair for Dogga, but not for three best 22 players. Similarly without trading the future second North are sliding back from pick 1 but still in the first round this year and are also getting an extra 1st rounder next year and a player who will be their FB for the best part of the next decade. It overvalues what in effect will be pick #2 anyway. Neither Darcy Tucker orBrad Hill and his fat contract are wort a future second rounder. Without that future second rounder (likely pick 19-21) it doesn’t work.

de Goey has signed on at the Filfth for another five years. Zero chance now Grundy doesn’t come to us.

Officially re-signed at the Filfth - a match made in a dumpster if ever there was one! https://www.afl.com.au/news/852390

Travis Boak would be the one whose manager I’d be talking to right now - likely to retire after next season.