Preview: Melbourne v Carlton

[Demonland 64,807]

We dragged our very own Grumpy Old Man, Clyde out of the nursing home the last time Melbourne and Carlton met at the MCG in Round 14 and he went OK so he's back for an encore ...

MADDER THAN HELL by Clyde the Clifton Hill Cabbie

There are three certainties in life.

The first two are death and taxes and the third is that Melbourne will beat Carlton at evensong on Sunday. In fact, you can bet your castle on that proposition because the Demons are unbeatable this week!

Unbeatable, you say?

Surely, you know that the Demons have experienced a dreadful 2007 - a season that promised so much but turned pear shaped before it even began? With almost every passing week, another disaster was lurking in the background waiting to happen. We lost games, players, a coach, lots of money and even our self-respect. It was enough to make the true fans of the club as mad as hell. Remember, I told you all about it when I came out of retirement last month and I recalled the famous rant of the late Peter Finch from the 1976 movie, "Network",

"I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!"

I will now divulge a couple of things about my fascination with madness and with the cinema of the mid 1970's in order to explain why I am so confident about Melbourne beating Carlton this weekend.

Apart from the self-evident fact that the Blues are no good, there's the current Carlton mindset. It's so destructive that it transcends the benefits that might be gained by acquiring the better draft choices that will come with defeat in Sunday's game. They have become attached so strongly to this culture of losing that they are totally delusional about what it means to get beaten.

I will paint a picture of what I mean by drawing an analogy between Sunday's game and a famous scene from another classic film of the era, "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". The "Black Knight Scene" goes a bit like this (please be patient with me because I am about to prove that in the farcical world of AFL football, life really does imitate art):

King Arthur and his trusty serf Patsy are travelling through a forest when they observe a fight taking place between a Black Knight and a Green Knight by a bridge over a small stream. The Black Knight prevails and is invited to join the Knights of the Round Table at Camelot. He ignores the invitation and Arthur finally decides to continue his journey over the bridge but is prevented from doing so by the Knight.

A sword fight ensues and Arthur chops off one of the Black Knight's arms. The Knight staunchly refuses to give up, protesting "'tis but a scratch!" and "I've had worse." The fight continues and Arthur lops off his opponent's remaining arm. As the king kneels to pray and give thanks to God, the Black Knight kicks Arthur who then hacks off one of his legs. His foe is determined to carry on the fight and Arthur sarcastically asks "What are you going to do, bleed on me?" He is met with the rejoinder that "the Black Knight always triumphs!" Predictably, His Highness hacks off the Knight's remaining leg.

At this point in time, the Black Knight has been reduced to a limbless head and torso but he never loses his dignity, "All right, then. I suppose we'll call it a draw." (horror of horrors, we can't possibly accept a draw!)

Arthur and Patsy resume their journey, while the Knight triumphantly calls out, "Come back you yellow bastard, I'll bite your legs off!"

This is an allegory which perfectly describes the Carlton Football Club's mindset - not just of this weekend but also of most of the year gone past. This is a club that wants the world to know how brave it is and how, come what may, it will always keep on fighting. Though it is mortally wounded, it will claim a victory of sorts by losing to half a side and, as for what remains of its mangled body, it can face the world proudly and scream out to all and sundry that it's "just a flesh wound!"

And people think I'm the one who's mad as hell!

THE GAME

Melbourne v Carlton at the MCG – Sunday 2 September 2007 at 5.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 89 wins Carlton 109 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Melbourne 47 wins Carlton 43 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 7 wins Carlton 4 wins

The Coaches: Riley 0 wins Ratten 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 at 5.00pm (live) Replays on The Comedy Channel at 8.00pm and 11.00pm.

RADIO SEN ABC774

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $1.22 Carlton to win $3.80

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 19.10.124 defeated Carlton 14.17.101 Round 14, 2007, at The MCG

The Demons gave Mark Riley the obligatory debut coaching victory in a lacklustre game marred by Ricky Petterd's collapsed lung and some substandard football from both sides, particularly the wayward Blues. Russell Robertson was quiet but still good enough to kick a lazy five for the day while Paul Wheatley and James McDonald were Melbourne's best. If this game was bad I shudder to think what the teams will dish up on Sunday.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Nathan Carroll Ryan Ferguson Nathan Brown

Half backs Clint Bizzell Brad Miller Cameron Bruce

Centreline Brad Green James McDonald Travis Johnstone

Half forwards Byron Pickett Russell Robertson Lynden Dunn

Forwards Matthew Bate Michael Newton Jace Bode

Followers Jeff White Brock McLean Nathan Jones

Interchange (from) Mark Jamar Chris Johnson Paul Johnson Daniel Ward

Emergencies Simon Buckley Colin Garland Paul Wheatley

In Matthew Bate Clint Bizzell James McDonald

Out David Neitz (knee) Colin Sylvia (hip) Simon Buckley

CARLTON

Backs Michael Jamison Setanta O'hAilpin Paul Bower

Half backs Heath Scotland Mark Austin Andrew Walker

Centreline Marc Murphy Adam Bentick Ryan Jackson

Half forwards Kade Simpson Josh Kennedy Jarrad Waite

Forwards Andrew Carrazzo Lance Whitnall Shaun Hampson

Followers Cain Ackland Ryan Houlihan Bryce Gibbs

Interchange Jordan Bannister Eddie Betts Shaun Grigg Jordan Russell

Emergencies Luke Blackwell Jason Saddington Simon Wiggins

In Mark Austin Ryan Houlihan

Out Brad Fisher (knee) Jason Saddington

New Mark Austin (19 Jeparit-Rainbow/Glenelg)

ENCORE - AND ANOTHER THING

I wrote the following in my preview of the Round 14 game between these two clubs -

Did I mention I was as mad as hell?

What really gets my goat is this priority draft pick nonsense. The original idea of helping clubs with weak playing lists has advanced beyond that stage and has now evolved as a reward offered for shameful and possibly even wilful mediocrity. Every year, when we enter the football season's home straight, the teams that are in the running for a priority pick invariably go into a downward spiralling freefall which somehow conveniently leaves them on the right side of the win/loss ledger.

Let's go back to Round 21, 2004 and consider the case of the Western Bulldogs who farewelled two of their favourite sons Matthew Croft and Simon Garlick against the Kangaroos. The Doggies rose to the occasion winning the match by 30 points with Croft and Garlick putting in superb efforts. Croft kicked five goals and Garlick kicked two and gathered 14 possessions but both were "dropped" for the final game against Essendon when victory would have cost the club a priority draft selection. They duly lost that match prompting many to ask whether it's usual to drop players who kick five goals in the penultimate game of the season.

That was but one example of what makes me hopping mad about these priority selections. The situation has become something of a joke in recent years and you won't find a better example of hypocrisy than when Collingwood strangely collapsed at the end of 2005 and accepted a priority pick two years after they played off in a grand final for the second year in a row. Back in 2003 Mick Malthouse had savaged the system that gave Melbourne a priority selection twelve months after playing off in a semi final. There are many who harbour some suspicions about the way Essendon finished off 2006 to claim a coveted priority selection and netted three top 20 picks. But I've laboured the point enough - let's go now to the present.

Along with the bottom placed Tigers, the Demons and the Blues are both in line for priority picks this year. Carlton will miss out however, if it wins (or even draws) another game. The way they've been travelling over the past two rounds (a combined losing margin of 177 points) and in the absence of Lance Whitnall and now Brendan Fevola, without who they historically struggle, it's not out of the question that they won't win another game this season. This could leave them with the first two picks in the 2007 National Draft as well as first selection in the Pre Season Draft. If they achieve that, the Blues will be absolutely dangerous in the trades and drafts at the end of the year given that there's a stash full of loot available courtesy of them having the country's second richest man at the helm. If you think it's far-fetched to expect them to lose all nine remaining games, then think again. Carlton has a realistic chance of winning only about three of those remaining nine games. Two of them are against Melbourne and the Demons wouldn't tank a game if their lives depended on it.

End of quote.

I could have written that stuff for this week as well. The differences are that Melbourne's injury woes have taken a turn for the worse and mysteriously, so have Carlton's - particularly in the past few weeks. The malaise has intensified in recent days while AFL boss Andrew Demetriou has buried his head in the sand on the issue and refuses to recognise that a tanking problem even exists.

In the days of old when I used to do match previews, I tried to discuss some of the more interesting match ups for the day. Unfortunately, that's out of the question this week because most of the great match ups will be up there in the stands at the MCG where the bulk of each team's better players will be - sitting and spectating. I suppose I could get enthused about Brock McLean v Andrew Carazzo but let's face it - Jeff White v Cain Ackland will probably be as lop sided (pardon the pun) as King Arthur v The Black Knight.

So that's how I see it. In a nutshell, as much as Melbourne is struggling with its injuries it will cut off what remains of Carlton's severed body on Sunday because, despite the fact that it is left with a rump of a football team, you simply cannot lose to a team that doesn't recognise that its own mortal wounds are more than "but a scratch!"

Melbourne by 96 points

Postscript: I'm predicting the Demons will kick the earliest winning goal in AFL history. It will come 1 minute 30 seconds into the game when the first arm is clinically removed from what is left of Carlton. Not long after that the Blues will be totally 'armless.

[Freddy Fuschia 661]

Always loved the Black Knight scene. It comes from one of my favourite movies.

Don't mind the 96 point win either if we have to win!

[Demon Disciple 10,935]

The Dees are paying $1.33 at tab sportsbet, very good money. Surely there is someone out there that will put atleast 200k on us to win this Sunday. It is a certainty. There is no way in the world that Carlton will give up the 1st and even possibly the 2nd draft picks. The Tigers had better lose this weekend, I could not live with the fact that the Blues would snare both Kreuzer and Cotchin, they are deliberately throwing games (cheating) and will be rewarded for it.

In order to counter this move, we the MFC must do the unthinkable and throw the game ourselves, not for the higher draft pick, but only to really [censored] off Carlton and their supporters, if we did Carlton will have literally got nothing out of this year.

In a perfect world we would thump this rabble into the turf and would be rewarded for it with Carlton not getting the #1 pick.

The system needs to be changed now, but even then it would have been too late.

[Redleg 37,576]

Great read Clyde.

[Dee*ceiving 876]

Enjoyed thoroughly Clyde

[Guest The Tiger Of Old]

Too long a post for me but others seemed to enjoy it...

Well done

[Chelly 740]

Postscript: I'm predicting the Demons will kick the earliest winning goal in AFL history. It will come 1 minute 30 seconds into the game when the first arm is clinically removed from what is left of Carlton. Not long after that the Blues will be totally 'armless.

Well, at least the Blues have still got memories of Wayne Armes .

[Elwood 3184 1,265]

The Dees are paying $1.33 at tab sportsbet, very good money. Surely there is someone out there that will put atleast 200k on us to win this Sunday. It is a certainty. There is no way in the world that Carlton will give up the 1st and even possibly the 2nd draft picks. The Tigers had better lose this weekend, I could not live with the fact that the Blues would snare both Kreuzer and Cotchin, they are deliberately throwing games (cheating) and will be rewarded for it.

In order to counter this move, we the MFC must do the unthinkable and throw the game ourselves, not for the higher draft pick, but only to really [censored] off Carlton and their supporters, if we did Carlton will have literally got nothing out of this year.

In a perfect world we would thump this rabble into the turf and would be rewarded for it with Carlton not getting the #1 pick.

The system needs to be changed now, but even then it would have been too late.

It's too late. Carlton won't be tanking on Monday, they've already tanked with their team selection. Murphy will drop out tomorrow or Sunday morning to finish it all off. I agree with Clyde. The execution will be swift.