2 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

I think this is a very fair point.

It would be fascinating to go back and look at publicly available information before, say, that shocking 2016 draft. Was there a general sense it was awful? Was there positivity? Did 'experts' get it completely wrong: were they hinting it might have been a ripper?

What I have noticed, though, is that although it's very early days, what people were saying about the 2024 (bountiful; one for the ages) and 2023 (strongish with a big cliff in the teens) drafts looks to have been pretty spot on.

It's still way too early to evaluate the 2024 correctly. Lot's of promise of course, but I'd say by the end of 2028 is when we can make a decent appraisal

And if the draft is anywhere close to being a known science, then there would be a lot of out of work recruiters (sacked) They all missed on Fyfe (including Freo who picked Morabito #4 ... played 26 games)

Do they ever get sacked for being so incompetent? haha ... the reality is that those within the industry know full well how difficult a task it is (drafting)

I'm a cynic for good reason, but I do trust Taylor. We're in good hands as he punches way above his weight

Edited 16 hours ago16 hr by Macca

2 hours ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

Love your work, layzie, but I've come to a different conclusion.

As someone with no connection to the Under 18 comp and a generally below average understanding of the nuances of what makes a good footballer, I want to understand the the draft better. And, over the years (particularly the Jason Taylor period) one thing I've come to realise is that the quality of the draft is a hugely important variable.

The difference between the 2016 and the 2019 draft is massive. The top 20 in one are now mostly B and C graders. The top 20 in the other is almost entirely champions, A-graders and some excellent B+ers.

And then there are drafts that seem to have really good players all the way through. The 2013 draft had an up-and-down top 10 (including Bont and Josh Kelly) and then excellent footballers all the way into the mid 50s: Zach Merrett at 26. Alex Pearce at 37. Jake Kolodjashnij at 41. Barrass at 43. Aliir Aliir at 44. Ben Brown at 47. Byrne-Jones at 52. Sicily at 56.

All of this is true. But it's also true that if you have a good hand in a bad draft - if the draft in front of you is just comparatively poor - you're at a disadvantage. It's not impossible to find gems - and the skills of your recruiting team are vital - but even the best struggle to find players at the point a draft falls off a cliff. In 2021 we might just have sneaked in before the huge drop. In 2022 I'm not sure we did.

The quality of the draft definitely matters Taciturn Demon. It is great to have the weight of probability on your side. However I think we should be backing JT in more than being worried about the draft level. I definitely get wanting the odds on our side moneyball approach and that's how I usually think but I also think it's about outsmarting the rest with good finds.

Not gonna argue with those examples and I definitely agree. But then you get drafts like 2018 which had hype and while we took two important premiership contributors it probably wasn't a home run. 2021 was also loaded with promise but apart from JVR who I still have high hopes for, Howes and Woewodin haven't hit the heights. I just think we can get bogged down with the shallow draft mantra.

This year's draft may not yield as many Brownlows as other drafts but could there be some nice role players who can make us better? Of course.

33 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

I think this is a very fair point.

It would be fascinating to go back and look at publicly available information before, say, that shocking 2016 draft. Was there a general sense it was awful? Was there positivity? Did 'experts' get it completely wrong: were they hinting it might have been a ripper?

What I have noticed, though, is that although it's very early days, what people were saying about the 2024 (bountiful; one for the ages) and 2023 (strongish with a big cliff in the teens) drafts looks to have been pretty spot on.

And the reason why we remember the 2024 draft is because it was so recent

But try going back 10, 15 or 20 years ... no one would have a clue

And that's my point. I'm not interested in what happens in hindsight, that's all for everyone to see

It's the predicting is what matters (to me) Get it right, all the time, and you've got my attention

52 minutes ago, Macca said:

They all missed on Fyfe (including Freo who picked Morabito #4 ... played 26 games)

To be fair, Morabito was an outstanding junior who was an Under 18 All Australian and W.A.'s MVP in their championship-winning side.

Alas for he and Freo, he suffered a series of terrible injuries including three knee reconstructions.

Fyfe was taken at pick twenty, after ten of the existing 16 teams chose others before him. We had four of those picks (Gawn was pick 34). Tish happens.

14 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

To be fair, Morabito was an outstanding junior who was an Under 18 All Australian and W.A.'s MVP in their championship-winning side.

Alas for he and Freo, he suffered a series of terrible injuries including three knee reconstructions.

Fyfe was taken at pick twenty, after ten of the existing 16 teams chose others before him. We had four of those picks (Gawn was pick 34). Tish happens.

Yes, injuries are another variable with drafting. It's often a crapshoot at the best of times

However, just like in the USA where all their sports have attached drafts, there are often certain recruiters that get on streaks (either way)

We are blessed that we have Taylor who is as good as Wells was at Geelong (in my view)

By the way, we are catching up with the States with regards to accepting drafting for what it is (not for what it is seemingly supposed to be)

Except in Australia, we draft underdeveloped teenages where as in the States, most of the draftees are College students aged 20-23 (sometimes, an NBA or Baseball prospect is drafted at 18 or 19)

5 hours ago, layzie said:

The quality of the draft definitely matters Taciturn Demon. It is great to have the weight of probability on your side. However I think we should be backing JT in more than being worried about the draft level. I definitely get wanting the odds on our side moneyball approach and that's how I usually think but I also think it's about outsmarting the rest with good finds.

Not gonna argue with those examples and I definitely agree. But then you get drafts like 2018 which had hype and while we took two important premiership contributors it probably wasn't a home run. 2021 was also loaded with promise but apart from JVR who I still have high hopes for, Howes and Woewodin haven't hit the heights. I just think we can get bogged down with the shallow draft mantra.

This year's draft may not yield as many Brownlows as other drafts but could there be some nice role players who can make us better? Of course.

JT is good at what he knows, he was quick and clever enough to maximise the trading game before just about anyone else, we have taken a lot of first round selections over the last 10 years without giving up a whole heap to have those picks BUT

he doesn't have a good eye outside the first round, you could argue his cards have been read this year with robey and pickett but since 2020

Johnson X

Kentfield ?

Adams ? Verrall X Sestan X KyeTurner X

Howes X Woewodin X McVee ✅

Rosman X DeakSmith X Turner ✅

was actually pretty good in the period before that but since then he has not only missed but he has also moved away from picking beyond there in the draft in favour of recycling talent and has missed there too

On 02/11/2025 at 09:57, Kent said:

I for one have never seen Tracca put in 4 full quarters Kameo king in my view

Devastatingly good for short periods never sustained

Did you watch the final series in ‘21 by chance, three super games in a row topped off by a 39 possession game in the Granny.

I wonder what people's thought are on going both needs based in Dovastan and Schubert. We have a lot of tall forwards but they don't say pick me. That's why I've been thinking of Schubert more and more. We have Mihocek but he only has 2 years left and the rest have struggled to get a game. Schubert is supposed to be a contested marking beast we really don't have that.

We need a small forward now that Pickett plays more midfield. We have Chandler who is good but great. Dovastan has kicked 53 goals this year we need someone like that. I think with 3 to 15 being so even we may go needs instead of best available. I think we only have one more year to get the small forward and key forward spots right or we are stuffed for years.

1. Duursma

2. Duff-Tytler (West Coast need a ruckman)

3. Robey (the best of an even bunch)

4. This where it gets interesting. Do they go for the flashier player in Grlj, or do they go for the more proven player in X.Taylor? I think if I was Richmond I'd go with the more proven player in X.Taylor.

5. Essendon don't have a midfield so they will need to boost it by picking Sharp at 5 and

6. Cumming at 6

7. This is where we have both of our picks and I think we will go needs Schubert at 7 and

8. Dovastan at 8

9. Grlj slides to 9

10. J.Lindsay rounds out the top 10 not including bids.

I see that Norm Smith has White being bidded on in the 60's we would be pretty stiff for that to happen. I don't think the draft will last 60 picks. We havn't delisted a player to make way for White so I think it's safe to say that White will be a rookie.

Edited 9 hours ago9 hr by WERRIDEE

5 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

Did you watch the final series in ‘21 by chance, three super games in a row topped off by a 39 possession game in the Granny.

Trac is a down and out star. He won't be replaced easily. Anyone who thinks otherwise are plain wrong. Langford is the interesting one the sky is the limit for him. If he improves about 10% from his great year this year he could be the replacement for Trac, but it is hard to expect too much off him considering it's only his second year.

37 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

I wonder what people's thought are on going both needs based in Dovastan and Schubert. We have a lot of tall forwards but they don't say pick me. That's why I've been thinking of Schubert more and more. We have Mihocek but he only has 2 years left and the rest have struggled to get a game. Schubert is supposed to be a contested marking beast we really don't have that.

We need a small forward now that Pickett plays more midfield. We have Chandler who is good but great. Dovastan has kicked 53 goals this year we need someone like that. I think with 3 to 15 being so even we may go needs instead of best available. I think we only have one more year to get the small forward and key forward spots right or we are stuffed for years.

1. Duursma

2. Duff-Tytler (West Coast need a ruckman)

3. Robey (the best of an even bunch)

4. This where it gets interesting. Do they go for the flashier player in Grlj, or do they go for the more proven player in X.Taylor? I think if I was Richmond I'd go with the more proven player in X.Taylor.

5. Essendon don't have a midfield so they will need to boost it by picking Sharp at 5 and

6. Cumming at 6

7. This is where we have both of our picks and I think we will go needs Schubert at 7 and

8. Dovastan at 8

9. Grlj slides to 9

10. J.Lindsay rounds out the top 10 not including bids.

I see that Norm Smith has White being bidded on in the 60's we would be pretty stiff for that to happen. I don't think the draft will last 60 picks. We havn't delisted a player to make way for White so I think it's safe to say that White will be a rookie.

Yeah I'm with you on our forward situation but would rather adress our mids and small forward needs through the draft (were good at that) and throw everything at an already developed key forward when the time is right (we should be buttering Ben King up big time)

48 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

I wonder what people's thought are on going both needs based in Dovastan and Schubert. We have a lot of tall forwards but they don't say pick me. That's why I've been thinking of Schubert more and more. We have Mihocek but he only has 2 years left and the rest have struggled to get a game. Schubert is supposed to be a contested marking beast we really don't have that.

We need a small forward now that Pickett plays more midfield. We have Chandler who is good but great. Dovastan has kicked 53 goals this year we need someone like that. I think with 3 to 15 being so even we may go needs instead of best available. I think we only have one more year to get the small forward and key forward spots right or we are stuffed for years.

1. Duursma

2. Duff-Tytler (West Coast need a ruckman)

3. Robey (the best of an even bunch)

4. This where it gets interesting. Do they go for the flashier player in Grlj, or do they go for the more proven player in X.Taylor? I think if I was Richmond I'd go with the more proven player in X.Taylor.

5. Essendon don't have a midfield so they will need to boost it by picking Sharp at 5 and

6. Cumming at 6

7. This is where we have both of our picks and I think we will go needs Schubert at 7 and

8. Dovastan at 8

9. Grlj slides to 9

10. J.Lindsay rounds out the top 10 not including bids.

I see that Norm Smith has White being bidded on in the 60's we would be pretty stiff for that to happen. I don't think the draft will last 60 picks. We havn't delisted a player to make way for White so I think it's safe to say that White will be a rookie.

If the picks fell this way, surely we would take Grlj with one of them.

25 minutes ago, Mouseymoo said:

Yeah I'm with you on our forward situation but would rather adress our mids and small forward needs through the draft (were good at that) and throw everything at an already developed key forward when the time is right (we should be buttering Ben King up big time)

I think we will be putting our eggs in the Butters basket before King. I think we could get him if we improve enough. That's why it makes more sense to go for a key forward in this draft.

19 minutes ago, 2021 said:

If the picks fell this way, surely we would take Grlj with one of them.

Grlj isn't a big baller winner that's his problem.

16 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

Grlj isn't a big baller winner that's his problem.

i don't think he needs to be, he provides damage, good possessions are the go these days, i think the cats had something ridiculous like idk 5 games this year with a player having 30+ even with holmes and baz, they A share the load and B dont need to have heaps of it to have an impact, they make them count and don't fluff around with it

@WERRIDEE I would definitely take any of Grlj, Cumming, Josh Lindsay & Dovaston all ahead of Schubert.

1 hour ago, WERRIDEE said:

I wonder what people's thought are on going both needs based in Dovastan and Schubert. We have a lot of tall forwards but they don't say pick me. That's why I've been thinking of Schubert more and more. We have Mihocek but he only has 2 years left and the rest have struggled to get a game. Schubert is supposed to be a contested marking beast we really don't have that.

We need a small forward now that Pickett plays more midfield. We have Chandler who is good but great. Dovastan has kicked 53 goals this year we need someone like that. I think with 3 to 15 being so even we may go needs instead of best available. I think we only have one more year to get the small forward and key forward spots right or we are stuffed for years.

1. Duursma

2. Duff-Tytler (West Coast need a ruckman)

3. Robey (the best of an even bunch)

4. This where it gets interesting. Do they go for the flashier player in Grlj, or do they go for the more proven player in X.Taylor? I think if I was Richmond I'd go with the more proven player in X.Taylor.

5. Essendon don't have a midfield so they will need to boost it by picking Sharp at 5 and

6. Cumming at 6

7. This is where we have both of our picks and I think we will go needs Schubert at 7 and

8. Dovastan at 8

9. Grlj slides to 9

10. J.Lindsay rounds out the top 10 not including bids.

I see that Norm Smith has White being bidded on in the 60's we would be pretty stiff for that to happen. I don't think the draft will last 60 picks. We havn't delisted a player to make way for White so I think it's safe to say that White will be a rookie.

On the White thing - we don’t have to take 6 rookies. We can take 39 on the PL and 5 on the RL.

That would only really apply if there is an unlikely bid in like a 10 pick range after ND37 but if it does happen we will just have 39 on the PL.

1 minute ago, rpfc said:

On the White thing - we don’t have to take 6 rookies. We can take 39 on the PL and 5 on the RL.

That would only really apply if there is an unlikely bid in like a 10 pick range after ND37 but if it does happen we will just have 39 on the PL.

I have to admit I didn't know that I thought it was a minimum of 6 rookies. All good then

22 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

@WERRIDEE I would definitely take any of Grlj, Cumming, Josh Lindsay & Dovaston all ahead of Schubert.

Fair enough. What's the knock on Schubert?

5 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

Fair enough. What's the knock on Schubert?

I wouldn’t say there is a clear knock on him, but I don’t think he is what we should be going after with 3 developing young talls aswell as mihocek and Johnson

I’d definitely look at a midfielder stil available (would love for it to be cumming) and dovaston

I wasn’t originally loving josh lindsay

But after watching some of his highlights and some of the risky kicks he takes on

His kicking can really set play up

Edited 7 hours ago7 hr by Edm

5 minutes ago, Flagdees said:

I wouldn’t say there is a clear knock on him, but I don’t think he is what we should be going after with 3 developing young talls aswell as mihocek and Johnson

I’d definitely look at a midfielder stil available (would love for it to be cumming) and dovaston

I don't know Roo hasn't come on, Jefferson is a bust IMO and Kentfield is from the rookie list he could go either way. With Butters out of contract in 27 I'm not sure picking a midfielder would be the right move like others think.

3 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

I don't know Roo hasn't come on, Jefferson is a bust IMO and Kentfield is from the rookie list he could go either way. With Butters out of contract in 27 I'm not sure picking a midfielder would be the right move like others think.

Yes roo and Jeffo probably haven’t been what we have hoped so far I wouldn’t give up just yet and Kentfield looks promising, adding Schubert hurts the develop of these guys

and as much as I would love to get him unless we show off fast exciting football this season moving up the ladder we won’t land butters, we need to add to our young midfield brigade in this draft

11 minutes ago, Flagdees said:

Yes roo and Jeffo probably haven’t been what we have hoped so far I wouldn’t give up just yet and Kentfield looks promising, adding Schubert hurts the develop of these guys

and as much as I would love to get him unless we show off fast exciting football this season moving up the ladder we won’t land butters, we need to add to our young midfield brigade in this draft

I don't know if Schubert would hinder any of our key forwards, that's a bit harsh. I think we will move up the ladder I think we can finish anywhere between 7th and 12th. If we don't we can always try and pick up a midfielder in that draft. It's easier finding midfielders than key forwards in the draft.

Cal Twomey has said that this year will see a record low number of draft picks used. Other media outlets (Herald Sun, ESPN) have said the same thing.

It's shallow.

There are no standout top talent like other years, like a Harley Reid (2023) or Sam Darcy, JHF, Nick Daicos (2021). There is a real lack of key position players. The WA cohort is reported as the worst its ever been.

2024 was reported to be a stronger/deeper draft with good key position players but was also reported that the there was no standout top picks. That worked out fine for us and all I care about is that our top two picks this year are at the top end before the more speculative picks come into play.

I'm really looking forward to see who Jason Taylor will pick. I think the only kid I dont really want is Schubert as he isnt a need.

Also intrigued to see if we trade up for Robey. I think the price of the trade might be too much though.

Very surprised if we don't play GWS and GC in first two games