Forward line questions

[demoncat 1,712]

4 hours ago, sisso said:

Good friends with Clayton too apparently...whether the pair of them spending a lot of time together is a good idea is debatable, but I would certainly entertain the idea if he could commit.

I won’t lie I’ve had the same thought considering he and Clarry are good mates 

Of course you’d have to do your due diligence and there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge (JUH’s contracted for two more years and it’s only March), but if it was a possibility you’d be negligent not to ask 

Especially as I think we really need to get JVR a partner in crime and I’m not convinced that any of Turner, AJ or Jefferson will be that (although there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge there too)

One to watch

[Great Sage 127]

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

Jeffo's second half of VFL Last year saw him dominate several games with good goal tallies 29 and finished 3rd in Caseys B& F Can conjure goals from nothing, clunk marks and tackles very well. Set shot routine for goals are very good I saw him kick 4 or 5 on one occasion and I believe we must bite the bullet and play him rather than at Casey where the inside 50s from lesser lights are SHIZZEN! .Emergency last 3 games of last year and very unlucky to only play against Norf and not Freo. Give him a go!

I'd like to see Jeffo get a run of games. Only problem is that it would have to be instead of Turner otherwise JVR needs to ruck. The question is how much better will we be with JVR as a permanent forward and does the risk of back spasms increase in the ruck? For me that is why AJ plays.

If Trac plays 60% forward, we immediately become more dangerous with a genuine A graders in each section of the ground Trac/Kossie - Clarry/Max - May/Lever. We could then continue with Riv as predominantly midfield. Trac could always go onball if supply is an issue. 

[Go Ds 302]

9 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

You don't think our scores in finals are worth looking at?

The 2021 Finals series was one of the most dominant ever, where we averaged 119 points for and 56 points against.

Compare that to the following years:

2022: 74 points for and 91.5 points against

2023: 62 PF and 66.5 Points against.

Not really. Finals are pressure cookers and plenty are dour, low-scoring affairs. If certain players keep failing in them or each time the opposition coach outsmarts the other then there's cause for concern. But you have presented  2 samples of 2! In three of the lost finals the margin was small. A couple of behinds instead being goals would make all the difference. There's plenty of chance in every game, especially in just one or two games. There's no guarantee for a much superior side to win a game ... or final ...or grand final. (Oh and your stats suggest one better kick in both those 2023 finals and we win both games anyway AND it's not rare for a side to win a final clocking 74 points. And of course how the team performs across the whole ground will influence whether the against is 61.5 or 91.5) 

Also in losing games teams tend to score less (and probably have less possessions or marks or their midfield is beaten etc etc ).  I'd almost be surprised if a team's average losing score weren't well below their average winning score. Your stats don't surprise me. We'll probably be in the middle pack for scoring this year. Then if we win finals we'll probably be close-ish to our average winning score of the H&A season or possibly lower if a final is high-pressure.

We don't have the best forward line and the forward line coach and the forwards will want to get 100% out of themselves this year (especially in finals). But missing shots or dumping the ball 40m out will be only one indicator of our performance this year.

[KozzyCan 945]

5 hours ago, Go Ds said:

Not really. Finals are pressure cookers and plenty are dour, low-scoring affairs. If certain players keep failing in them or each time the opposition coach outsmarts the other then there's cause for concern. But you have presented  2 samples of 2! In three of the lost finals the margin was small. A couple of behinds instead being goals would make all the difference. There's plenty of chance in every game, especially in just one or two games. There's no guarantee for a much superior side to win a game ... or final ...or grand final. (Oh and your stats suggest one better kick in both those 2023 finals and we win both games anyway AND it's not rare for a side to win a final clocking 74 points. And of course how the team performs across the whole ground will influence whether the against is 61.5 or 91.5) 

Also in losing games teams tend to score less (and probably have less possessions or marks or their midfield is beaten etc etc ).  I'd almost be surprised if a team's average losing score weren't well below their average winning score. Your stats don't surprise me. We'll probably be in the middle pack for scoring this year. Then if we win finals we'll probably be close-ish to our average winning score of the H&A season or possibly lower if a final is high-pressure.

We don't have the best forward line and the forward line coach and the forwards will want to get 100% out of themselves this year (especially in finals). But missing shots or dumping the ball 40m out will be only one indicator of our performance this year.

Indeed sample sizes from finals series will be small by definition.

You don't think it matters that in 2021 we were far more dominant in finals than we were in the following years? That it may have been a factor in our success?

You also haven't examined the form of the following premiers who were better at scoring and won more games than us throughout those seasons, where in 2021 we were the strongest team in the competition in both percentage and wins.

That tells me we stagnated while other sides passed us by and we were unable to replicate the same kind of form that saw us win it all in 2021.

You're saying our forward line doesn't need to improve because we won the flag on 2021 with fewer PF in the h&a season ignoring the fact that we were incredibly high scoring across the finals that year and it was the thing that held us back in the following years. We couldn't have done a great deal more defensively in those years so we have to look somewhere to improve.

[dazzledavey36 56,241]

11 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Fair enough. I haven’t seen any Casey games for a couple of years 

I certainly hope he succeeds, but i worry that he does not impose himself enough in games. 
I was surprised he didn’t get a run late last year, in order to give him a taste of the upper level, the fact he didn’t even when our Forward Line was not functioning well is to me a concern. 

He doesn't.

He's a taller Bayley Fritsch that lacks the competitive combat instinct you need in a key forward. I look at young skinny players similar to Jefferson like Nate Caddy and Calsher Dear and you can already tell they've got already in spades for such young players

You either have it or you dont and Jefferson doesn't unfortunately.

Against North in the practice game he was still getting out bodied and out marked way too easily for a guy that's been in the system for three years now.

Drafting/trading for another key forward should be high on our priority list at the end of the year alongside a couple of small forwards.

[dazzledavey36 56,241]

Also, stay riiiight away from JUH. 

I'm well aware of his off field antics and why [censored] hit the fan between him and Rory Lobb. I doubt the real story will come out regarding that incident but if it does you would NOT want him anywhere near our playing group and especially Oliver who's worked incredibly hard to get his life back in order.

JUH issues are worse then what Oliver through, like I'm talking next level above, and that was a challenge in itself for the club.

We don't need any more [censored] at the club. Some things are for more important off field then it is on field. We're still in the process of rebuilding our culture and so far we're taking good steps toward. 

It only takes one person to undo all that good work.

Edited Wednesday at 20:50 by dazzledavey36

[leave it to deever 17,614]

Is Milkshake up and about?

He was a wildcard and in career best form before he went down in that Swans game .

Is he fit and injury free?

Plays taller than he actually is and brings tonnes of experience.

 

[Roger Mellie 4,205]

20 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

The one I'm interested in is Zac Bailey from the Lions. RFA the end of 2026 I believe, so I wonder if we could prise him out a year early if he was interested in coming back to Vic. 

He's not from Vic (NT & SA)

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,684]

23 minutes ago, Roger Mellie said:

He's not from Vic (NT & SA)

My mistake…. Still worth going after him though! 😅

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,684]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Also, stay riiiight away from JUH. 

I'm well aware of his off field antics and why [censored] hit the fan between him and Rory Lobb. I doubt the real story will come out regarding that incident but if it does you would NOT want him anywhere near our playing group and especially Oliver who's worked incredibly hard to get his life back in order.

JUH issues are worse then what Oliver through, like I'm talking next level above, and that was a challenge in itself for the club.

We don't need any more [censored] at the club. Some things are for more important off field then it is on field. We're still in the process of rebuilding our culture and so far we're taking good steps toward. 

It only takes one person to undo all that good work.

They still hang out according to Insta, so hard to keep them apart in their own time… but get your point

[picket fence 18,153]

19 hours ago, GS_1905 said:

I think JUH will be gettable at year end. Hard to see what the Doggies would ask for, but given his form and off-field issues hard to see how they would get good value back. We seem to have a good rapport with the Doggies so i'd say we'd have a decent shot. There will always be competing with the likes of Geelong, but i'd say they are probably not in the Doggies good books given the B.Smith trade last year. 

There is the obvious question mark on whether we'd want the trouble in our club, so you'd want to make sure he has turned the corner so to speak. 

He is the best candidate to complement JVR and Turner i think. He will play that Jeremy Cameron style role and has the capability and talent to equal if not surpass the man himself. 

 

 

Agree a zillion % With Dazzle! You don't want Ugle Hagen anywhere near MFC Not now or ever!

Edited Wednesday at 22:29 by picket fence

[Roost it far 10,022]

27 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Agree a zillion % With Dazzle! You don't want Ugle Hagen anywhere near MFC Not now or ever!

I don't totally agree with this. They're already friends who hang out outside of football. If, and it's a big IF , Ugle Hagen can get himself back on track I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him over. He's a special talent and if you can surround him with the right help and people and importantly the playing group want him then I say go for it. In some ways it's easier to keep an eye on him and Clayton if they're at the club together. Also just imagine the potential he and JVR would have in the same forward line. For mine he's Jeremy Cameron MK2, he's exactly what we need.......What could possibly go wrong?

Edited Wednesday at 22:55 by Roost it far

[dazzledavey36 56,241]

1 hour ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

They still hang out according to Insta, so hard to keep them apart in their own time… but get your point

Socially they don't hang out.

They both attend the same mobility and stretching program and thats where the relationship was struck up but that's as far as it goes.

[dazzledavey36 56,241]

5 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I don't totally agree with this. They're already friends who hang out outside of football. If, and it's a big IF , Ugle Hagen can get himself back on track I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him over. He's a special talent and if you can surround him with the right help and people and importantly the playing group want him then I say go for it. In some ways it's easier to keep an eye on him and Clayton if they're at the club together. Also just imagine the potential he and JVR would have in the same forward line. For mine he's Jeremy Cameron MK2, he's exactly what we need.......What could possibly go wrong?

They don't hang out socially but..

There's a difference between going out and having a beer with someone on a Saturday night compared to just going to the same Gym/program to do your extras's on your off day.

They just attend the same mobility and stretching program with a number of other AFL players like Pendles, Brad Hill, Mitchell Owen's and Daicos that do the same program.

Salem also attends this program.

[Roost it far 10,022]

3 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

They don't hang out socially but..

There's a difference between going out and having a beer with someone on a Saturday night compared to just going to the same Gym/program to do your extras's on your off day.

They just attend the same mobility and stretching program with a number of other AFL players like Pendles, Brad Hill, Mitchell Owen's and Daicos that do the same program.

Salem also attends this program.

All good, just reporting what I'd seen which is likely what you've mentioned above. He's still an awesome talent and it'd be a real shame if he wasn't helped back to his best. I'd roll the dice but I'm a dice roller......it doesn't always work but when it does.

[layzie 34,527]

6 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

All good, just reporting what I'd seen which is likely what you've mentioned above. He's still an awesome talent and it'd be a real shame if he wasn't helped back to his best. I'd roll the dice but I'm a dice roller......it doesn't always work but when it does.

I do like your thinking Roost it but I feel we've rolled that dice a few too many times in the last few years. Our culture is still on the mend and we've gotta look after that first. 

[KozzyCan 945]

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Also, stay riiiight away from JUH. 

I'm well aware of his off field antics and why [censored] hit the fan between him and Rory Lobb. I doubt the real story will come out regarding that incident but if it does you would NOT want him anywhere near our playing group and especially Oliver who's worked incredibly hard to get his life back in order.

JUH issues are worse then what Oliver through, like I'm talking next level above, and that was a challenge in itself for the club.

We don't need any more [censored] at the club. Some things are for more important off field then it is on field. We're still in the process of rebuilding our culture and so far we're taking good steps toward. 

It only takes one person to undo all that good work.

Has JUH started making friends with the wrong sort or something?

[Roost it far 10,022]

37 minutes ago, layzie said:

I do like your thinking Roost it but I feel we've rolled that dice a few too many times in the last few years. Our culture is still on the mend and we've gotta look after that first. 

I think the word culture should be banned on this site. 

[dazzledavey36 56,241]

15 minutes ago, KozzyCan said:

Has JUH started making friends with the wrong sort or something?

Wrong crowd with well known criminal behaviour. 

[GS_1905 309]

16 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Wrong crowd with well known criminal behaviour. 

Collingwood Football Club?

[Lucifers Hero 40,695]

18 hours ago, MrReims said:

Love to know what you are referencing here. If it’s not appropriate to write here, love a DM about it. I still feel very in the dark on the whole Clarrie saga

I think others have given a bit of insight into why JUH isn't a good idea. 

 

As an aside, Clarrie looked physically really healthy and sounded emotionally really healthy in the interview going round.  Reckon he has resolved to stay that way.

Edited Thursday at 01:07 by Lucifers Hero

[SthSea22 658]

5 hours ago, Roger Mellie said:

He's not from Vic (NT & SA)

NT born and bred

[Go Ds 302]

8 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

Indeed sample sizes from finals series will be small by definition.

You don't think it matters that in 2021 we were far more dominant in finals than we were in the following years? That it may have been a factor in our success?

Well, yes .... Hence why we lost in 22 and 23

8 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

You also haven't examined the form of the following premiers who were better at scoring and won more games than us throughout those seasons, where in 2021 we were the strongest team in the competition in both percentage and wins.

Not percentage. We were third in 21 and then 2nd in that stat the next 2 years. Especially by the end of 22 we were losing games and the two grand finalists had long winning streaks by then and at least Geelong were better than a knocked up Melbourne running on empty. Then in 23 we were well set for September but losing one of very best in the first few minutes of the Collingwood final plus missed shots then, and especially against Carlton put paid to that. No club can plan for players being benched the whole game. A couple more accurate kicks at goal and quite possibly we win the 23 flag. Anyway a team can improve via any of a better backline or midfield or forward line. If any section had played better in those final especially the close ones could have had winning instead.

 

 

8 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

That tells me we stagnated while other sides passed us by and we were unable to replicate the same kind of form that saw us win it all in 2021.

See above. If we had got a couple of trades in those years that happened to have All Australian years we would have done better despite the same forward deficiencies.

 

 

8 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

You're saying our forward line doesn't need to improve

 

Never said that

 

 

8 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

 

 

 

because we won the flag on 2021 with fewer PF in the h&a season ignoring the fact that we were incredibly high scoring across the finals that year and it was the thing that held us back in the following years.

Umm, every finals team would love to do this. Most don't obviously. It's probably due to everything falling into place. Maybe that includes much better accuracy for 4 weeks. But I doubt it's just suddenly the forward line connections gelling after 23 games of working on it.

[KozzyCan 945]

21 minutes ago, Go Ds said:

Well, yes .... Hence why we lost in 22 and 23

Not percentage. We were third in 21 and then 2nd in that stat the next 2 years. Especially by the end of 22 we were losing games and the two grand finalists had long winning streaks by then and at least Geelong were better than a knocked up Melbourne running on empty. Then in 23 we were well set for September but losing one of very best in the first few minutes of the Collingwood final plus missed shots then, and especially against Carlton put paid to that. No club can plan for players being benched the whole game. A couple more accurate kicks at goal and quite possibly we win the 23 flag. Anyway a team can improve via any of a better backline or midfield or forward line. If any section had played better in those final especially the close ones could have had winning instead.

 

 

See above. If we had got a couple of trades in those years that happened to have All Australian years we would have done better despite the same forward deficiencies.

 

 

Never said that

 

 

Umm, every finals team would love to do this. Most don't obviously. It's probably due to everything falling into place. Maybe that includes much better accuracy for 4 weeks. But I doubt it's just suddenly the forward line connections gelling after 23 games of working on it.

You're right about percentage in 2021, I stand corrected.

I'm a little confused as to your overall point. You've posted numerous times that you don't think our forwardline is much of a cause for concern, so where do you think we need to improve to give ourselves the best shot at contending again? I would say our inability to capitalise on the scoreboard has been our greatest weakness for several years now and is the area that has room for the most improvement. I think that we could apply some relatively simple fixes to improve that area, such as cheating forward off the clearance and pulling our press back a bit to open up the forwardline rather than slowly kicking to contests and predictable safe zones like the forward pockets. I think what we'd gain offensively from those sorts of moves would outweigh what we lose defensively.

[Go Ds 302]

1 hour ago, KozzyCan said:

You're right about percentage in 2021, I stand corrected.

I'm a little confused as to your overall point. You've posted numerous times that you don't think our forwardline is much of a cause for concern, so where do you think we need to improve to give ourselves the best shot at contending again? I would say our inability to capitalise on the scoreboard has been our greatest weakness for several years now and is the area that has room for the most improvement. I think that we could apply some relatively simple fixes to improve that area, such as cheating forward off the clearance and pulling our press back a bit to open up the forwardline rather than slowly kicking to contests and predictable safe zones like the forward pockets. I think what we'd gain offensively from those sorts of moves would outweigh what we lose defensively.

I'd LOVE our forward line to improve. But if this year's average 'for' is 68 and the 'against' is 56 and our percentage is round 120 we could easily be a contender. The team and individual players will be looking at improving. Hopefully there won't be any passengers realising that but regardless wherever improvement surfaces surely we'll take it. (And if that's somewhere else on the ground and we still have games where we kick 11.24 or 7.7 so be it. The main thing is improvement.)