Welcome to Demonland: Luker Kentfield

[Fat Tony 5,072]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

I think Luker Kentfield makes good sense from a list management pov. We are currently going with 2 tall forwards (one a ruck/fwd) plus Fritsch and three tall backs.

BBB is done, TMac is close to the end despite his great season, Tomlinson has not been starting 22 and would find better opportunities elsewhere, and May is getting on.  Schache is not up to it. J.Smith is assumed done.

To maintain our current set up through the decade I think we can assume that JVR, Fritsch and Lever are there and that hopefully we can retain Petty who could play at either end. That means we need two of Turner, Jefferson, Adams, Verrall and now Kentfield to make it as KP.  Hore is useful intercepting depth and Fullarton may be depth only too.  Kalani White is coming through but any effective impact can't be expected until towards the end of the decade. I think we've increased our chances of success in this area and we needed to.

We can concentrate of drafting midfielders which is the easiest target to hit and look for a serviceable ruck through trade or FA.

With such a open trade and free agency market, I don't think clubs can really plan more than a year ahead to maintain a balanced list. It is also so unpredictable. TMac has looked cooked then comes back and to become a star again. Hogan was the answer to our forward line for a decade and then wasn't. Weideman was a star in a final and then flamed out.

So, as a rule, I favour taking the player that is going to play the most (and best) AFL games and usually that is a midfielder. Kentfield only makes sense if he is good enough IMO and there is probably only about 20-25 good AFL key forwards in the competition, so he is a longshot.

[Adam The God 29,324]

1 minute ago, Fat Tony said:

With such a open trade and free agency market, I don't think clubs can really plan more than a year ahead to maintain a balanced list. It is also so unpredictable. TMac has looked cooked then comes back and to become a star again. Hogan was the answer to our forward line for a decade and then wasn't. Weideman was a star in a final and then flamed out.

So, as a rule, I favour taking the player that is going to play the most (and best) AFL games and usually that is a midfielder. Kentfield only makes sense if he is good enough IMO and there is probably only about 20-25 good AFL key forwards in the competition, so he is a longshot.

The problem is elite midfielders almost always (particularly in the 2020s) come from the top 10 picks in the draft. This was a midseason draft. You cannot expect the cream of the crop out of season...

[JJJ 1,001]

51 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I view this pick as a bit of insight into our plans for end of the season.

I think we all know Brown will be retiring and I think we will be delisting Schache. This will leave us with JVR, Petty, Fullarton, Jefferson, Turner & Kentfield as key forward depth.

I also expect Tomlinson to leave as a FA and I have a feeling McDonald will sign a 1 year contract, assuming he wants to go around again. If we do get Josh Battle as has been mentioned this would then leave us with May, Lever, McDonald, Adams & Battle as key back depth.

I then expect us to go hard at another midfielder or two, either through the draft or potentially trade/FA (LDU would be a dream).

Also, from what I read about the 2024 draft it seems to be absolutely stacked with midfielders so that is probably also in their planning.

McDonald is retiring at seasons end. It would take a monumental change in heart to go around next year.

Personally I think the lack of key forwards who can ruck is a weakness of ours. As Binman pointed out on another thread, using our best prospect in JVR as a backup ruckman is not ideal. Other teams have shown, having a hulking aggressive backup ruck can do well at AFL level and this kid could fit the bill.

It also points to the changes going into next year. McDonald, BBB & Schache are out. Petty is still a chance to leave at seasons end while Jefferson and Fullerton are both still unproven. Better to get another prospect in early and see if we can get him up to speed prior to the preseason.

[Engorged Onion 10,120]

1 hour ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Also a very talented cricketer and played lacrosse 

Lacrosse? [censored] love it - that is one brutal sport... if he is up for that - then he'll go in very hard.

 

[Fat Tony 5,072]

16 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

The problem is elite midfielders almost always (particularly in the 2020s) come from the top 10 picks in the draft. This was a midseason draft. You cannot expect the cream of the crop out of season...

You should not expect a top liner. But the best mid-season picks so far have been Durham, Newcombe, Nobel and Pickett (all smalls/midfielders). I think it is even more unlikely to pick a key forward.

[Adam The God 29,324]

2 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

You should not expect a top liner. But the best mid-season picks so far have been Durham, Newcombe, Nobel and Pickett (all smalls/midfielders). I think it is even more unlikely to pick a key forward.

We don't need an elite KPF, 2nd ruck. We need a good player. Newcombe is a good player for example, but he's nowhere near elite. We need to add elite talent to our midfield, not another Dunstan, Harmes, Jordon or Newcombe...

Edited May 30 by Binmans PA

[dazzledavey36 52,726]

Love this selection. 

Big strong aggressive key forward who's already played senior WAFL for two years now. 

You need those big aggressive key forward to make it in today's competition.  It's why JVR is doing well and I think having another young key forward who is willing to crash packs and takes strong contested marks will only hold him in good stead.

The recruiting is also a wise decision. It's a transition type recruitment. Guys like Schache and Brown will be gone at the end of the year so makes absolute sense we are bring in a developing tall early on to gain some valuable experience in an AFL environment so that by pre season day 1 he's already adapted to the full time training and professionalism. 

This also means that with the improvement of Jefferson, going into next year with JVR, Kenterfield, Fullarton and Petty has us well stocked for key forwards.

Our targeting and recruitment through the draft will then turn to adding elite midsfielders to add further depth.

Edited May 30 by dazzledavey36

[M_9 1,983]

I too like this selection. Assuming we make the top eight we’re going to need Max for at least three, possibly more tough finals. He’ll be rucking significantly less time post bye you’d think. 

Similarly JvR is hardly battle-hardened and his TOG may decrease a tad.
Luker could well be centre stage by round 20.
 

[DeeSpencer 24,685]

2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Surely you can see we are experimenting with our midfielders and half-forwards in other roles against lowly opposition, to adjust the mix and provide greater flexibility?

It’s not because we don’t have any better starting mids; it’s about giving us options.

No, I disagree entirely.

We’ve looked slow and devoid of run with the Tracc, Oliver and Viney trio. They were smacked against Carlton early and for the full game against West Coast, and Sparrow hasn’t filled the void.

You don’t move ANB and then have to move Langdon forward and bring in Hunter on the back of ordinary vfl form for the sake of experimenting. Not to mention playing Billings for 10 weeks with diminishing returns.

I get the reasons for going with a young key forward that the recruiters believe in, we sure need as many of them as we can get! But I’d expect 2-3 mid or mid/forward reinforcements this offseason. 

[spirit of norm smith 15,096]

Clearly the Dees identified the key forward position as still needing depth and opportunity.  Likely that Ben Brown retires and Schache is delisted.  That leaves JVR (only just turned 21) , Jefferson and Fullarton (ruck/forward).  
 

Kentfield adds another young big bodied forward to develop.  He looks like he enjoys the contest.  A good sign already.  

Dees definitely will look to build their next generation of mids over the next 2-3 drafts.  

[old55 22,775]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

With such a open trade and free agency market, I don't think clubs can really plan more than a year ahead to maintain a balanced list. It is also so unpredictable. TMac has looked cooked then comes back and to become a star again. Hogan was the answer to our forward line for a decade and then wasn't. Weideman was a star in a final and then flamed out.

So, as a rule, I favour taking the player that is going to play the most (and best) AFL games and usually that is a midfielder. Kentfield only makes sense if he is good enough IMO and there is probably only about 20-25 good AFL key forwards in the competition, so he is a longshot.

I think you're actually making an argument in favour of drafting KPs because they are more scarce and have a lower hit rate. Yeah we could just draft mids until the cows come home and rebrand as the Lilliputians.

[Adam The God 29,324]

13 hours ago, poita said:

On that basis, regardless of what he does in future, this is a disappointing selection.

Quote of the year. 🤣

[Fat Tony 5,072]

28 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

We don't need an elite KPF, 2nd ruck. We need a good player. Newcombe is a good player for example, but he's nowhere near elite. We need to add elite talent to our midfield, not another Dunstan, Harmes, Jordon or Newcombe...

Newcombe is the 49th ranked player in the AFL according to Wheelo Ratings (behind only Gawn, Petracca and Viney at MFC). You definitely underrate him.

Jordon has cemented a spot in the best team in the competition.

Harmes has played 159 AFL games and played in a premiership.

If we got anything like these three players out of a mid-season pick I would be wrapped.

My point is that it is a longshot to land a good key position player/ruck early in the normal draft, let alone in the mid-season draft. There just isn't that many of them because key forward is such a tough position to play at AFL level. You just have to be patient when a good prospect is at your early pick or bring in free agents or trades in the interim. The Dees and Pies have shown that you can win a flag without top quality key forwards.

I would rather we focus on picking athletic midfielders and reducing the number of misses at the draft.

[Adam The God 29,324]

Just now, Fat Tony said:

Newcombe is the 49th ranked player in the AFL according to Wheelo Ratings (behind only Gawn, Petracca and Viney at MFC). You definitely underrate him.

Jordon has cemented a spot in the best team in the competition.

Harmes has played 159 AFL games and played in a premiership.

If we got anything like these three players out of a mid-season pick I would be wrapped.

My point is that it is a longshot to land a good key position player/ruck early in the normal draft, let alone in the mid-season draft. There just isn't that many of them because key forward is such a tough position to play at AFL level. You just have to be patient when a good prospect is at your early pick or bring in free agents or trades in the interim. The Dees and Pies have shown that you can win a flag without top quality key forwards.

I would rather we focus on picking athletic midfielders and reducing the number of misses at the draft.

I'm not saying Newcombe, Jordon or Harmes are not good players or don't have good attributes. In fact, that's exactly what I said. But, they are not of the level of Trac, Viney or Clarry. We need to add a Callaghan or someone of his level, someone with the potential to go A/A+ alongside Trac, Viney and Clarry.

[Fat Tony 5,072]

8 minutes ago, old55 said:

I think you're actually making an argument in favour of drafting KPs because they are more scarce and have a lower hit rate. Yeah we could just draft mids until the cows come home and rebrand as the Lilliputians.

I think you can make do with athletic mid-sized players who apply pressure. The Tigers won the flag with Josh Caddy and Jacob Townsend playing as key forwards.  If we had have had luck last year, we could have won the flag with Melksham, Joel Smith and Van Rooyen as our key forwards.

[old55 22,775]

4 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Newcombe is the 49th ranked player in the AFL according to Wheelo Ratings (behind only Gawn, Petracca and Viney at MFC). You definitely underrate him.

Jordon has cemented a spot in the best team in the competition.

Harmes has played 159 AFL games and played in a premiership.

If we got anything like these three players out of a mid-season pick I would be wrapped.

My point is that it is a longshot to land a good key position player/ruck early in the normal draft, let alone in the mid-season draft. There just isn't that many of them because key forward is such a tough position to play at AFL level. You just have to be patient when a good prospect is at your early pick or bring in free agents or trades in the interim. The Dees and Pies have shown that you can win a flag without top quality key forwards.

I would rather we focus on picking athletic midfielders and reducing the number of misses at the draft.

Maybe like North? I think they've got a challenge ahead of them, they have mids out the ying-yang and now have to trade or FA KPs, which is historically very difficult for small clubs with their profile.

[Fat Tony 5,072]

5 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I'm not saying Newcombe, Jordon or Harmes are not good players or don't have good attributes. In fact, that's exactly what I said. But, they are not of the level of Trac, Viney or Clarry. We need to add a Callaghan or someone of his level, someone with the potential to go A/A+ alongside Trac, Viney and Clarry.

The point of the draft is not just this year. Who knows if Trac, Viney and Clarry will be fit next week. Clarry could be shipped out at the end of the season.

Plus, even if we get another good foot soldier in the midfield, Petracca could be played forward.

 

[old55 22,775]

5 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

I think you can make do with athletic mid-sized players who apply pressure. The Tigers won the flag with Josh Caddy and Jacob Townsend playing as key forwards.  If we had have had luck last year, we could have won the flag with Melksham, Joel Smith and Van Rooyen as our key forwards.

One flag and they had Jack Riewoldt as well and then immediately went out and got Tom Lynch.

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,283]

1 hour ago, JJJ said:

McDonald is retiring at seasons end. It would take a monumental change in heart to go around next year.

 

Has he said this? I haven't seen anything reported.

[Fat Tony 5,072]

7 minutes ago, old55 said:

Maybe like North? I think they've got a challenge ahead of them, they have mids out the ying-yang and now have to trade or FA KPs, which is historically very difficult for small clubs with their profile.

North are stuffed. But I don't think they would be in a much better position had they drafted Cadman and McDonald (who would be going back to Perth if he was still on their list).

Losing their second best player (Thomas) for naught was a cruel blow.

[Rocknroll 1,002]

some good signs and words here 

 

[Fat Tony 5,072]

6 minutes ago, old55 said:

One flag and they had Jack Riewoldt as well and then immediately went out and got Tom Lynch.

Lynch was a free agent and A-grader.

I am not saying good key forwards aren't valuable (albeit overrated), but the opportunity cost of drafting them is usually too high. 

[Adam The God 29,324]

25 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

The point of the draft is not just this year. Who knows if Trac, Viney and Clarry will be fit next week. Clarry could be shipped out at the end of the season.

Plus, even if we get another good foot soldier in the midfield, Petracca could be played forward.

 

We have access to the cream of the crop at the end of this year. Why are we making such a big deal out of what is essentially a rookie draft?

Edited May 30 by Binmans PA

[kallangurdemon 549]

2 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I think we all know Brown will be retiring and I think we will be delisting Schache. This will leave us with JVR, Petty, Fullarton, Jefferson, Turner & Kentfield as key forward depth

Except that he is only on a 6 month contract  .There will be no Jefferson type development phase with him .He either shows he is up to speed this year or he is out .

[DeeSpencer 24,685]

1 hour ago, M_9 said:

I too like this selection. Assuming we make the top eight we’re going to need Max for at least three, possibly more tough finals. He’ll be rucking significantly less time post bye you’d think. 

Similarly JvR is hardly battle-hardened and his TOG may decrease a tad.
Luker could well be centre stage by round 20.
 

He was playing in the WAFL 2’s 3 weeks ago. And is good for one mark a game so far in the seniors. I’d be shocked if he’s anywhere near an afl game this year. Obviously he has to show a bit to stay on the list and if he does well that’s great but this is a pick aimed for 2026 after 2 full preseasons at the earliest, not round 20