2023 was an opportunity blown.  I used to say it was a choke but that was obviously triggering for some. Expected scores are absolutely no comfort at all, but it does show we are not the basket case some in the media (and many around here) think we are.  Like in the lead up to every season, we need to improve to stay in the contest, but we also shouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bath water.  We were a damn good team last season, possibly the best in it, but we blew it.

Edited February 12, 20241 yr by Vipercrunch

Did these guys watch the Swans team in 2005? They were horrible to watch, they won the flag though.

 

1 hour ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Vs Carlton, If Tracc’s (legit) goal had’ve been paid a goal we wouldn’t be discussing this right now.

And that's the AFL's manipulation?

Seriously?

 

1 hour ago, Vipercrunch said:

2023 was an opportunity blown.  I used to say it was a choke but that was obviously triggering for some. Expected scores are absolutely no comfort at all, but it does show we are not the basket case some in the media (and many around here) think we are.  Like in the lead up to every season, we need to improve to stay in the contest, but we also shouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bath water.  We were a damn good team last season, possibly the best in it, but we blew it.

Top post.

Small margins. It's exactly why predictions of our downfall are so silly. 

The Pies game wasn't an example of choking IMHO.

But the boys would love to have the last 6 or so minutes of the blues loss back.

I haven't been able to bring myself to watch replay, probably never will, 

Perhaps choke is too harsh and/or triggering - tightened right up, costly pressure related brain fades?

But even though my memory is hazy (so i could be wrong), these events all felt like examples of bad mistakes under pressure that in isolation could have cost us the game, let alone all of them:

• Maxy's poster from 15 metres
• Maxy inexplicably trying to hit Oliver's kick back into play rather than shepherding it thru for a goal (would have that gone though if he had shepherded?)
• Koz shooting for goal when trac was free inside (this might be a bit tough on Koz, he kicks it and we win - and he's there to kick goals and he probably didn't see trac. That said i'm no fan of the dribbler kick when a punt kick is an option)
• Viney not getting his kick over Weitering's head 
• And unfortunately for the young fella, the big one - the Juddster electing to spoil Docherty, and fail to do so, rather than allowing him to mark and holding him up

On that list I'd have to say Maxy's errors were the most egregious, and perhaps closer to choking than the others.

Seems to me he's escaped bit of criticism for those errors, but i went into media black out after the game so perhaps i missed it. That said i don't recall much on here.

Edited February 12, 20241 yr by binman

31 minutes ago, binman said:

Top post.

Small margins. It's exactly why predictions of our downfall are so silly. 

The Pies game wasn't an example of choking IMHO.

But the boys would love to have the last 6 or so minutes of the blues loss back.

I haven't been able to bring myself to watch replay, probably never will, 

Perhaps choke is too harsh and/or triggering - tightened right up, costly pressure related brain fades?

But even though my memory is hazy (so i could be wrong), these events all felt like examples of bad mistakes under pressure that in isolation could have cost us the game, let alone all of them:

• Maxy's poster from 15 metres
• Maxy inexplicably trying to hit Oliver's kick back into play rather than shepherding it thru for a goal (would have that gone though if he had shepherded?)
• Koz shooting for goal when trac was free inside (this might be a bit tough on Koz, he kicks it and we win - and he's there to kick goals and he probably didn't see trac. That said i'm no fan of the dribbler kick when a punt kick is an option)
• Viney not getting his kick over Weitering's head 
• And unfortunately for the young fella, the big one - the Juddster electing to spoil Docherty, and fail to do so, rather than allowing him to mark and holding him up

On that list I'd have to say Maxy's errors were the most egregious, and perhaps closer to choking than the others.

Seems to me he's escaped bit of criticism for those errors, but i went into media black out after the game so perhaps i missed it. That said i don't recall much on here.

I think you're forgetting the costly reversal due to poor discipline, several 50's gifted and Viney burning Petracca and instead setting up carlton's final play. Not to mention the basic kicking for goal errors in the QF. You're way to kind IMO.

 

Edited February 12, 20241 yr by Roost it far

It's also exactly why we might be headed for a fall. The margins are so fine and with Petty, Melksham and likely McAdam out who exactly is going to kick the goals?

48 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

It's also exactly why we might be headed for a fall. The margins are so fine and with Petty, Melksham and likely McAdam out who exactly is going to kick the goals?

Fritta is our best forward and most likely to impact the scoreboard with goals 

Losing Kozzy for the Sydney game hurts us much more than Melksham or MCAdam imo 

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

It's also exactly why we might be headed for a fall. The margins are so fine and with Petty, Melksham and likely McAdam out who exactly is going to kick the goals?

Petty won't be out long.

Same is true of tmac

McAdam? Give me a spell. Besides he'll also be fit soon enough

Melk? We missed him.come finals but he wasn't even in rhe team until the mid point of the season. 

He'll be back at a similar point in this season as he was 

JVR is arguably the best young key forward in the AFL.

Only still a kid and his third season, and still a few years from his peak.

But he'll be stronger and fitter than last year and go up a level or two. A true forward who takes his chancex

Fritter was our leading goal kicker in 2021 and 2022. And by all accounts is in good nick and over his foot injury that caused him issues last year. Another brilliant kick for goal

How does that add up to heading for a fall?

Unless you think a loss against the swans kills our season.

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

I think you're forgetting the costly reversal due to poor discipline, several 50's gifted and Viney burning Petracca and instead setting up carlton's final play. Not to mention the basic kicking for goal errors in the QF. You're way to kind IMO.

 

They were errors. All teams make errors. Lots of them

I was talking about evidence of choking and I wouldn't characterise any of those examples as choking (bar the viney one which i referenced ie the kick thst went to weitering).

2 hours ago, binman said:

 

I haven't been able to bring myself to watch replay, probably never will, 

Perhaps choke is too harsh and/or triggering - tightened right up, costly pressure related brain fades?

But even though my memory is hazy (so i could be wrong), these events all felt like examples of bad mistakes under pressure that in isolation could have cost us the game, let alone all of them:

• Maxy's poster from 15 metres
• Maxy inexplicably trying to hit Oliver's kick back into play rather than shepherding it thru for a goal (would have that gone though if he had shepherded?)
• Koz shooting for goal when trac was free inside (this might be a bit tough on Koz, he kicks it and we win - and he's there to kick goals and he probably didn't see trac. That said i'm no fan of the dribbler kick when a punt kick is an option)
• Viney not getting his kick over Weitering's head 
• And unfortunately for the young fella, the big one - the Juddster electing to spoil Docherty, and fail to do so, rather than allowing him to mark and holding him up

 

I tried to watch the replay for the first time the other day, was in a calm place, peppermint tea to hand, didn't work. As soon as Maxy took that mark, I was like a kid on the deep end of the spectrum, thrown into a blackberry bush, at a thrash metal concert, with a strobe light in my eyes. Lucky my phone survived.

Other than that, we are great to watch, when we are on, we are devastating, Boomshakalaka and all that.

 

 

11 hours ago, binman said:

Petty won't be out long.

Same is true of tmac

McAdam? Give me a spell. Besides he'll also be fit soon enough

Melk? We missed him.come finals but he wasn't even in rhe team until the mid point of the season. 

He'll be back at a similar point in this season as he was 

JVR is arguably the best young key forward in the AFL.

Only still a kid and his third season, and still a few years from his peak.

But he'll be stronger and fitter than last year and go up a level or two. A true forward who takes his chancex

Fritter was our leading goal kicker in 2021 and 2022. And by all accounts is in good nick and over his foot injury that caused him issues last year. Another brilliant kick for goal

How does that add up to heading for a fall?

Unless you think a loss against the swans kills our season.

Petty has had very poor preparation for the season and could easily be out for the next few months. On top of that everyone seems to forget that he’s played a handful of games for us as a forward, he’s still a forward in progress.

TMac…..if he’s in the team we’re playing a man down.

McAdam, I’d love him fit and in the team but that seems unlikely to be consistent enough for true synergy to develop. Melksham is 32 and coming back from an ACL, he’s 50-50 at the very best. 

On top of all this you’ve got our heavy reliance on Gawn and also May. I actually still think we can win it but with the improvement of clubs around us we can’t afford much to go wrong. For mine our season is on a knife edge. 
I know that triggers people around here but that’s my thoughts. 

Edited February 12, 20241 yr by Roost it far

8 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

we can’t afford much to go wrong.

That's the same for all clubs...

Luck plays a bigger role than most give credit to.

47 minutes ago, rjay said:

That's the same for all clubs...

Luck plays a bigger role than most give credit to.

Spot on however I’m not worried about other clubs. 

13 hours ago, binman said:

Petty won't be out long.

Same is true of tmac

McAdam? Give me a spell. Besides he'll also be fit soon enough

Melk? We missed him.come finals but he wasn't even in rhe team until the mid point of the season. 

He'll be back at a similar point in this season as he was 

JVR is arguably the best young key forward in the AFL.

Only still a kid and his third season, and still a few years from his peak.

But he'll be stronger and fitter than last year and go up a level or two. A true forward who takes his chancex

Fritter was our leading goal kicker in 2021 and 2022. And by all accounts is in good nick and over his foot injury that caused him issues last year. Another brilliant kick for goal

How does that add up to heading for a fall?

Unless you think a loss against the swans kills our season.

I don't believe we are heading for a fall either but our forward line is also now without Joel Smith who kicked a few late season and finals goals. I thought Joel was quite handy and will be missed.Hopefully JVR has learned to let the opposition worry about him rather than the other way around. You cannot contribute by sitting on my side of the fence.

56 minutes ago, Cyclops said:

I don't believe we are heading for a fall either but our forward line is also now without Joel Smith who kicked a few late season and finals goals. I thought Joel was quite handy and will be missed. Hopefully JVR has learned to let the opposition worry about him rather than the other way around. You cannot contribute by sitting on my side of the fence.

Agree on Smith - would love to know when he is back. 

JVR is not too bad discipline wise i don't think - i could be wrong but i don't think he was ever suspended at Casey and last year was reported twice, but got off one (the hit to Ballard when spoiling) on appeal.

That said, getting rubbed out for the blues game was a shocker. A complete lack of discipline. 

I might have mised it but i don't recall him getting much criticism in the media or on here, at least not in terms the potential impact on the reuslt in the blues game.

I dont' want to hang the young fella out to dry, and it was such a heighted match, but he deserves some criticism (and no doubt he has given himself plenty of it).  

He hadn't been in great form, but I don't think its hyperbolic to suggest him missing cost us the game.

He would have taken their best defender, and likely any chances he had as he is an excellent kick for goal.

I also reckon he is the sort of player who can be difference maker in big games - even if quiet for most of it - for example the Tigers Anzac day game last year.   

Another big factor is if JVR played, Schahae wouldn't have been the sub (becuase JVR could give Maxy a chop out) and we would have selected another runner/utility as a sub and brought them on for fresh legs in the last q. 

18 hours ago, binman said:

Small margins. It's exactly why predictions of our downfall are so silly. 

 

A lot of talk about our ‘forward half connection woes’ but we had  the second best % in the league and only scored, on average, 3 points per game less than Collingwood.

Is the issue less about game plan/ personnel and more about the fact we’re too often on the bad side of these ‘small margins’. Not sure why or how but Collingwood consistently seem to do better in those clutch moments (and I don’t think it is purely skill related).

 

3 hours ago, Cyclops said:

I don't believe we are heading for a fall either but our forward line is also now without Joel Smith who kicked a few late season and finals goals. I thought Joel was quite handy and will be missed.Hopefully JVR has learned to let the opposition worry about him rather than the other way around. You cannot contribute by sitting on my side of the fence.

You know what JVR is thinking Cycl really or you presume  by looking at him?

21 hours ago, IRW said:

And that's the AFL's manipulation?

Seriously?

 

It’s not that simple. It’s overwhelmingly in the best interests of the AFL to have Carlton or Collingwood in the GF, with the ultimate dream… both of them. That’s the ‘Why’ and as for the ‘How’ think of all the serendipitous happenings at the pointy end of last season. 

Edited February 13, 20241 yr by WalkingCivilWar

16 hours ago, binman said:

 

JVR is arguably the best young key forward in the AFL.

 

We're dees fans but cmon .... 

6 minutes ago, 58er said:

You know what JVR is thinking Cycl really or you presume  by looking at him?

A little bit like your presumptions on Goody...

3 minutes ago, Jeremy said:

We're dees fans but cmon .... 

I did say arguably.

And I suppose it depends how young key forward is defined.

I was thinking 21 and  under, as JVR is only 20 (21 in April).

Who do you think is a better key forward in the AFL who is 21 or under than JVR?

20 minutes ago, binman said:

I did say arguably.

And I suppose it depends how young key forward is defined.

I was thinking 21 and  under, as JVR is only 20 (21 in April).

Who do you think is a better key forward in the AFL who is 21 or under than JVR?

Well it changes it if you're saying 21 and under. Amiss (20) , Ugle Hagan and Logan Mcdonald (21) you'd have to say are better forwards than JVR at this point and the King brothers are still young. Love JVR though, hoping he will improve this season 

2 hours ago, binman said:

 

I dont' want to hang the young fella out to dry, and it was such a heighted match, but he deserves some criticism (and no doubt he has given himself plenty of it).  

He hadn't been in great form, but I don't think its hyperbolic to suggest him missing cost us the game.

 

I think that's a lot of unfair baggage to be dumping on JVR, Binny. For goodness sake, Melksham missing may have cost us the game. Petty missing may have cost us the game. Brayshaw missing probably cost us the game. BBB missing may have cost us the game. Poor kicking at goal certainly cost us the game. Despite your comment to the contrary, you have "hanged the young fella out to dry" unfairly in my opinion.

1 hour ago, Jeremy said:

Well it changes it if you're saying 21 and under. Amiss (20) , Ugle Hagan and Logan Mcdonald (21) you'd have to say are better forwards than JVR at this point and the King brothers are still young. Love JVR though, hoping he will improve this season 

Ugle Hagen better than JVR? Maybe.

He's certainly going to be star, but he has been more inconsistent than JVR. And he was drafted in 2020 so is a year ahead in terms of development than JVR (he's a full year old than JVR too) - so he should be ahead of JVR.

By the by, that reinforces my confidence in JVR going to another level this season - he will have the same amount of AFL preseasons and elite preparation as Ugle Hagen did at the start of last season, his best season thus far.

Logan McDonald? You could mount a case he is as good as JVR. Maybe. But IMO there is no way he is better. In fact i have JVR well ahead, and with a much higher ceiling.

Like Ugle Hagen he's a full year older than JVR, and was also drafted in 2020, so is also a year ahead of JVR in terms of development.

Amiss is a gun, but i don't think he is better than JVR, who is also a gun. So i'd say even. A good comparison as like JVR he was drafted in 2021 and is almost the same age. 

The one thing i'd note, is that JVR rucked a fair bit last year, and was pretty handy at it, and none of the other three did. That's a big tick in his column IMO.

Here: are the head to head averages for JVR versus those three:

Edited February 13, 20241 yr by binman

Player Statistics Comparison   Jacob Van Rooyen Name Jamarra Ugle-Hagan Melbourne Demons Team Western Bulldogs Forward Position Forward 20 Career Games 45 Claremont Origin Oakleigh Chargers April 16, 2003 Date of Birth April 4, 2002 20yr 9mth Age 21yr 10mth 193cm Height 197cm 96kg Weight 91kg 2021 National Draft Last Drafted In 2020 National Draft Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #1 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Western Bulldogs Career Stats for Season Career 20 Games 45 4.5 Kicks 7.0 4.2 Handballs 2.6 8.7 Disposals 9.6 3.1 Marks 4.3 1.4 Goals 1.3 0.5 Behinds 1.2 2.1 Tackles 1.1 3.7 Hitouts 0.1 1.2 Inside 50s 2.2 0.3 Goal Assists 0.4 0.9 Frees For 0.7 0.8 Frees Against 0.5 4.3 Contested Possessions 4.2 4.8 Uncontested Possessions 5.6 6.8 Effective Disposals 5.4 78.2% Disposal Efficiency % 56.3% 1.6 Clangers 2.3 0.9 Contested Marks 1.1 1.5 Marks Inside 50 2.3 0.3 Clearances 0 0 Rebound 50s 0 2.1 One Percenters 0.9 0 Bounces 0 74.0 Time On Ground % 77.8 0.1 Centre Clearances 0 0.2 Stoppage Clearances 0 4.0 Score Involvements 4.9 113.0 Metres Gained 187.8 1.5 Turnovers 2.6 0.5 Intercepts 0.5 1.1 Tackles Inside 50 0.5