5 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

The same response I received from other posters when I said another straight set exit beckoned for this side halfway through this year. 

Send me your address, you’ll receive your reward in 3-5 business days.

35 minutes ago, JJR said:

Send me your address, you’ll receive your reward in 3-5 business days.

Been bullish for the past 3 seasons but least confident heading into 2024.   My main concern is that we are relying on 2 young key forwards with less that 50 goals between them.  Essentially rookies. 

There's a lot of talk of how they make natural progress but so do other teams young key defenders.  Really hope McAdam can grab a few and Fritsch is fully fit.  Our marking depth inside 50 is shallow.

23 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

We would need a hell of a lot to go right. Already a gun down in the midfield, who can step up? Petty will be missing for the first few, we cant rely on BBB to fill that void, nor TMac who has been training with the defenders anyway. Max and May nearing the twilight. So I suppose my answer is no.

1. I think you are wrong there, first of all the backline is in good shape with several player that can cover injuries.

2. The midfield is good but does need a quicker type of player there as we are a little one paced when it comes to opening the play up but overall matches up with other teams overall.

3. The forward line has been our achilles heel since 21 and that had a lot to do with the game plan, but has been bolstered and will be interested to see if this years game plan has changed with those players coming in.

4. Overall we are still in contention but Goodwin must change the style we use, Langdon and Hunter must sop playing boundary side and centre attacking a lot more, Kossie should be used as an attacking forward not a defensive one all the time and go no more that the H/F line just like the pies used Elliot and Hill.

Will be interesting year I say.

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Our 3 most important players are Petracca, Gawn and May.......I'm in no way saying your 3 aren't important but lose Petracca, Gawn and or May and we're done. 

I'm not sure May is one of our three most important players as we have players, for example Disco, Petty and Tmac, who could, to some degree, cover his role. But i could easily be persuaded. Def a super, super important player for us. 

We have no such player to cover maxy who i think is out most important player by a mile. In fact i think maxy is more important to our premiership chances than other player in the AFL to their team premiership chances. 

To be honest our reliance on Maxy has always worried me from the perspective of risk management - ie we lose him we are xx%%#&&.

Agree tracc is next - in large part because his combination of power, skill, raw ability and positional flexibility cannot be covered. 

16 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

Bizarre comment and highly ironic, but then again forums are always the best place to view the vagaries of human existence. 

Maybe learn to contextualise commentary before posting some inane and recalcitrant tripe. 

I never commented on Oliver, I spoke of the team. You quoted my words, so as I said, consider developing the ability to contextualise what they mean.

But please, continue the brave straw man argument. 
 

 

What a bunch of nonsense words! This is what you get when you copy and paste content from one of those writing and grammar apps: a word salad that leaves the reader clueless about what the author has written. Did you actually check what you wrote before you posted? God forbid if you did.

9 hours ago, praha said:

Winning a flag is tough. It's too high a benchmark to set.

In my opinion, Top 4, and winning a final are our benchmarks. From there if we win a flag then it's a bonus. But making the Prelim should be the minimum goal for the team. Not winning the flag won't be a failure.

Yes it will considering our talent.

14 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Our 3 most important players are Brayshaw, Oliver, and Petty all have question marks if we can get them fit and firing we have a definite chance for the flag. 

Petracca, Gawn, Fritsch and May all more important than Brayshaw IMO. 

17 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Now that's some meat we can all chew on!

Adelaide I disagree; they had 17 players play 20+ games in 2023, which is ridonkulus team stability. A 'good' season would see 12. That included all 4 of their over 30yr players; Sloan, Walker, Laird and Smith, which is a handy quartet of veterans to say the least! I think they are at their peak already and will hover for a while, in the competetive range, but not excel.

GWS & Carlton are similar propositions to each other in that they both came good late in the year but haven't quite proven themselves yet. Strange to think that Carlton fans were on the 'sack Voss' bus early in the year. Both teams fluctuate wildly within and between seasons. Either could dominate everything or not even make the 8.

Brisbane are professional competitors with an excellent, balanced and mature list. Only a grand final hangover could explain them dropping very much.

Sydney have all kinds of firepower and flair but they finished 8th for a reason; their record against other finalists includes a win over the early season misery version of the Blues, and a win over the Giants. That's it. They had a 3-ply soft draw, with the Demons and Giants the only top-8 teams they played twice.

Collingwood don't deserve to be allowed to take the field, but their lawyers ensure they'll be back.

 

Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane are the core contenders and go into on level standing. Several others may menace if they get momentum going.

Good analysis above. However I disagree with you for disagreeing with me about Adelaide.

They threw 6 games last year in the bin through complete inaccuracy. In those 6 games they outscored the oppo but somehow lost the game (we were one of the beneficiaries in round 19). Going through past years, that stat is a complete anomaly and all bodes well for them this year if they can tidy up their accuracy. If they won just 3 of those 6 and they would have finished 5th not 10th.

It’s a complete anomaly because in 2021 and 2022 the highest amount of times where a team lost but outscored the oppo was 3 as opposed to Adelaide’s 6 last year.

In fairness we also lost 5 games where we outscored the oppo in 2023 so I take a fair bit of solace out of that. In 2021 and 2022 we committed this sin just twice.

I think Adelaide can bolt into a top 2 spot provided they can fix up their accuracy issues, enjoy natural improvement from their under 25’s and get another big year from Tex who doesn’t appear anywhere near the end.

5 hours ago, binman said:

The historical evidence (another important data point in horse racing) is that it is relatively rare for a team to come from outside the 8 and make top 4 the next season. Not impossible but rare.

That knocks 10 teams out of being a top 4 contender

Of course more common for teams who made the 8 to take the next step and make the top 4.

Every year since 2015 a team has jumped from outside the top 8 to finish top 4 the following year (after the home and away season).

It’s absolutely likely someone will come from nowhere to finish top 4 this year.

I promise I'm not setting out to be a contrarian but I feel like this year the forward line is the least of my worries oddly enough. There are so many question marks going into this season. I trust this side to be competitive no matter who is on or off the field but this is the least confident I have been in having a settled team to build continuity heading into next season.

Forwards

Yes there is perhaps, system, method, positioning et al that needs improving but much of this as has been noted by @binman and others, until the midfield and wings can improve their disposal and decision making, then this will continue to be an issue.

Personel wise I expect JVR to improve, Fritta to have a better run at it health wise, McAdam to provide more options and the smalls to find some better consistency and continuity playing with each other to create and hit the scoreboard more. Of course Petty is the biggest IF regarding his health. If he can play the majority of the season I genuinely think he is the most imposing, physical and natural tall forward we've had since Hogan and should be the focal point. If the somewhat of a pipe dream in Brown being fit enough again to impact a full game is true then that's a bonus. Double bonus would be Jefferson working his way into the main side and performing as I think he has the tools.

Backs

I know a lot of people talk about depth but I think we're a little bit more thin down back then we have been previously. I think our tall stocks with Tomlinson, McDonald, Turner and Hore are 'OK'. But with Hibberd gone, Smiths uncertainties, Rivers potentially spending more time in the middle, I'm a bit worried about our mid-sized players. The biggest IF for me is can Salem finally get some luck and fitness back to play consistently again.

Mids

It has been our constant and biggest strength these last few years and right now its the biggest concern right now. Elephant in the room I know its only January but in eight weeks we have our first game and one of our two best midfielders isn't training. Gus rightly so is being eased back in and there won't be pressure on him to slot straight back in. I actually think the period without Clayton last year gave us a different look in the middle that I liked a lot. But will Gus be ok? Can Sparrow be a 20+ disp, impactful consistent midfielder? Can Trac go up a notch again (defensive improvements?). Without Jackson or Grundy what happens if Max goes down? 

Sorry for the long post. As much as there's many concerns I'm also excited to see how the team tackles all of this. Sometimes adversity brings upon more change and dynamic which this team has lacked in recent years. Go dees!!!

Edited January 3, 20241 yr by Young Blood

33 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Every year since 2015 a team has jumped from outside the top 8 to finish top 4 the following year (after the home and away season).

It’s absolutely likely someone will come from nowhere to finish top 4 this year.

And hopefully it's the filth that drops out to accommodate them.

42 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Every year since 2015 a team has jumped from outside the top 8 to finish top 4 the following year (after the home and away season).

It’s absolutely likely someone will come from nowhere to finish top 4 this year.

Fair call.

The Crows would be the obvious team that could make that jump. 

 

 

2 hours ago, djr said:

What a bunch of nonsense words! This is what you get when you copy and paste content from one of those writing and grammar apps: a word salad that leaves the reader clueless about what the author has written. Did you actually check what you wrote before you posted? God forbid if you did.

i’mmmmmmm sowwi. R u Okay? Hehehe 

15 minutes ago, binman said:

Fair call.

The Crows would be the obvious team that could make that jump. 

 

 

Dogs, Cats (maybe not), Freo will be an interesting watch.

GC are the obvious one for me...

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Good analysis above. However I disagree with you for disagreeing with me about Adelaide.

They threw 6 games last year in the bin through complete inaccuracy. In those 6 games they outscored the oppo but somehow lost the game (we were one of the beneficiaries in round 19). Going through past years, that stat is a complete anomaly and all bodes well for them this year if they can tidy up their accuracy. If they won just 3 of those 6 and they would have finished 5th not 10th.

It’s a complete anomaly because in 2021 and 2022 the highest amount of times where a team lost but outscored the oppo was 3 as opposed to Adelaide’s 6 last year.

In fairness we also lost 5 games where we outscored the oppo in 2023 so I take a fair bit of solace out of that. In 2021 and 2022 we committed this sin just twice.

I think AdelaideMelbourne can bolt into a top 2 spot provided they can fix up their accuracy issues, enjoy natural improvement from their under 25’s and get another big year from Tex Max who doesn’t appear anywhere near the end.

Interesting points. And I'm willing to go along with that analysis provided the highlighted parts also apply to Melbourne!

I mean, let's be honest, if those three things go right for Adelaide they become serious contenders, but if they happen for us we go from top-4 to unbeatable.

We are still in our window if we believe we are still in our window.

Watched the 2000 GF on fox yesterday

Boy were we monstered

The umpires appeared to allow Essendon to do what ever they liked

I have never seen a team so ill prepared for a final 

It was hard to watch

 

3 hours ago, Kent said:

Watched the 2000 GF on fox yesterday

Boy were we monstered

The umpires appeared to allow Essendon to do what ever they liked

I have never seen a team so ill prepared for a final 

It was hard to watch

 

That game was played at a frenzied  pace.

To be fair to Essendon they had an incredible amount of talent. 

One of those awesome teams that pop up every so often.

The Dons had dropped one game all year compared to our eight.

One could argue that team should have won multiple flags as they finished first the year prior and after.

It's why I really hope we win this year because cup windows don't stay open that long. 

The irony to be beaten by such a great team was that the Dons were hammered by one of the best teams ever in the Lions that won three in a row.

Edited January 4, 20241 yr by leave it to deever

Now that I've looked at the stats I wonder how good that Lions team was.

They never finished minor premiers in those three years they won the flag.

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

That game was played at a frenzied  pace.

To be fair to Essendon they had an incredible amount of talent. 

One of those awesome teams that pop up every so often.

The Dons had dropped one game all year compared to our eight.

One could argue that team should have won multiple flags as they finished first the year prior and after.

It's why I really hope we win this year because cup windows don't stay open that long. 

The irony to be beaten by such a great team was that the Dons were hammered by one of the best teams ever in the Lions that won three in a row.

You lost me here, Deeves. 😅

2 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

You lost me here, Deeves. 😅

I do muse if your hatred of Essendon is greater than your love of the Dees.

Either way I guess I admire the passion.

And tx to you I've got " we built this city on rock and roll" stuck in my head.

 

Edited January 4, 20241 yr by leave it to deever

14 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

And tx to you I've got " we built this city on rock and roll" stuck in my head.

 

You’re welcome!

 

PS: Nothing is greater than my love for the Dees… NOTHING! (My sons probably say 👋)

My intense hatred for Essendon is a close second, though. 

We all need another flag this year.

Hands up if you've watched the replay  of 21 over twenty times.

Need another one asap.

In the immortal and wise words of Grandpa Simpson...

" Gimmee gimmee gimmee."

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

We all need another flag this year.

Hands up if you've watched the replay  of 21 over twenty times.

Need another one asap.

In the immortal and wise words of Grandpa Simpson...

" Gimmee gimmee gimmee."

🙋‍♀️

I reckon I watched it 20 times in the first week!!!