THE SKY IS FALLING

[Little Goffy 14,542]

For anyone a bit concerned that we haven't responded well to travel and to the week after travel, take a little comfort that our only long trip from Round 11 onwards is our NT game at Traeger Park.

We play the Kangaroos in Tassie in round 21 and then in round 24 we finish the H&A season with a quick trip up to Sydney, with any concerns about that travel softened by the pre-finals week off.

In fact, counting kilometers, we may already have travelled more in the first five rounds than what we have left for the rest of the season!

[Roost it far 8,266]

13 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

There are also holes in our D anytime one or more of May, Lever or Max are out.

The Demon stonewall and mid dominance (until lately) can't (and won't) be the mainstay of our wins forever.

At some stage the forward line has to step up....consistently.

We're the highest scoring team

[Wodjathefirst 2,632]

It just really goes to show that one cannot take any team for granted this season.  If the team is not switched on, there is a fair chance it will lose.

I still have confidence that when we are switched on, we are a very competitive unit, a contender. 

I just hope that positive, confident supporters rock up to the G for the Anzac Eve clash.  It is our home game, we must outnumber the opposition fans, no excuses. We owe it to our team. 
 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

53 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

We're the highest scoring team

Yes...the bulk of that from three out of five games Roost.

as soon as serious pressure comes on things don't appear to hold up so well ....pretty much across the park (so far).

Edited April 19, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

For anyone a bit concerned that we haven't responded well to travel and to the week after travel, take a little comfort that our only long trip from Round 11 onwards is our NT game at Traeger Park.

We play the Kangaroos in Tassie in round 21 and then in round 24 we finish the H&A season with a quick trip up to Sydney, with any concerns about that travel softened by the pre-finals week off.

In fact, counting kilometers, we may already have travelled more in the first five rounds than what we have left for the rest of the season!

That is very comforting indeed.

Compare that to round 16 - round 23 last year. Travelled 4 times and also one in Geelong.

[titan_uranus 25,016]

4 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

For anyone a bit concerned that we haven't responded well to travel and to the week after travel, take a little comfort that our only long trip from Round 11 onwards is our NT game at Traeger Park.

We play the Kangaroos in Tassie in round 21 and then in round 24 we finish the H&A season with a quick trip up to Sydney, with any concerns about that travel softened by the pre-finals week off.

In fact, counting kilometers, we may already have travelled more in the first five rounds than what we have left for the rest of the season!

That's right - last year our run home included trips to Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane (plus Alice Springs and Geelong). This year we trade those three trips in for Hobart and Sydney (and of course keep Alice Springs and Geelong).

The other point about our fixture was that 9 of our last 12 games were against eventual finalists, the 10th was against Carlton (9th on percentage) and the 11th was against Port Adelaide, leaving the 12th game as Adelaide, but that was in Adelaide.

It's still a bit too early to be able to know for sure how easy/hard our run home is right now, but at the moment post-bye we have games against GWS, North Melbourne and Hawthorn, as well as Richmond and Carlton. 

[picket fence 17,161]

The sky is falling is one of the best LOST IN SPACE episodes EVER 

[Deestar9 1,615]

11 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Yes...the bulk of that from three out of five games Roost.

as soon as serious pressure comes on things don't appear to hold up so well ....pretty much across the park (so far).

So we win a premiership…we finish 2nd the following season & this year we’re premiership favourites with Collingwood …& we have one average game & it’s incredible the “teeth gnashing “ that goes on. I was at the game & I could tell in the first 5 mins ..we just weren’t on. It felt like a 10 goal loss but like all good teams even with nothing going right they pull the margin back. The comp gets harder & closer every year ..5% off..some key players out..some key players injured during the game … travel etc …can all impact a game. It’s 5 rounds in & I believe 18 games to go …let’s take a deep breath 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

On 4/18/2023 at 11:23 AM, MrFreeze said:

Very very early days, but teams have caught up to us and have smartened up to our gameplan. The meta shift from control to fast footy is certainly in response to our and Geelong dominance. We were also lucky in '21 as we in hit top form whilst old contenders died off and new contenders were still building.

Regardless, our best is still the best, we have an entire season to hit our straps. Everyone was in hysterics being 10-0 last year but frankly, this is just a more realistic position to be in. Learn our lessons now, keep our cards close, and sky is the limit come September. 

Nice post. Maybe we can reverse last year’s trend and have a winning streak into the finals. Our injury list doesn't seem big but every week from the start we have had key players out including May, Salo, Fritta, Bbb, Lever, Max, Viney and Kozzie suspended. 

Fair bit of talent there. All premiership  players.

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

20 hours ago, Deestar9 said:

So we win a premiership…we finish 2nd the following season & this year we’re premiership favourites with Collingwood …& we have one average game & it’s incredible the “teeth gnashing “ that goes on. I was at the game & I could tell in the first 5 mins ..we just weren’t on. It felt like a 10 goal loss but like all good teams even with nothing going right they pull the margin back. The comp gets harder & closer every year ..5% off..some key players out..some key players injured during the game … travel etc …can all impact a game. It’s 5 rounds in & I believe 18 games to go …let’s take a deep breath 

I think you're forgetting the loss to Brissy DS9

In both losses so far the team's overall statistical rating was off 12.5% & 13.5% (respectively) vs our Season 2022 rating.   A bit more than 5% off.  If we were only 5% off i suspect we probably win both games.

Regardless i personally dont need to take a deep breath.

No panick at my end nor do i think the sky is falling.  I sit somewhere in the middle, recognising that some of the outs are significant but at the same time our off performances have been substantially off not minor.

The worry is the inconsistency so far and the gap between our best & worst.

With the return of key players and the Captain hopefully we can become more consistent and super aggressive / max efforts pretty much every time we cross the white line in the vast majority of games.

Succesful dynasty clubs bring their best at a very high level for long periods of time and in most of their matches.  Hopefully we are also on track to follow.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[layzie 33,796]

On 4/19/2023 at 6:20 PM, picket fence said:

The sky is falling is one of the best LOST IN SPACE episodes EVER 

Just as an aside, the Star Trek episode with Kirk vs Gorn is the best of that show. 

[Deestar9 1,615]

15 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

I think you're forgetting the loss to Brissy DS9

In both losses so far the team's overall statistical rating was off 12.5% & 13.5% (respectively) vs our Season 2022 rating.   A bit more than 5% off.  If we were only 5% off i suspect we probably win both games.

Regardless i personally dont need to take a deep breath.

No panick at my end nor do i think the sky is falling.  I sit somewhere in the middle, recognising that some of the outs are significant but at the same time our off performances have been substantially off not minor.

The worry is the inconsistency so far and the gap between our best & worst.

With the return of key players and the Captain hopefully we can become more consistent and super aggressive / max efforts pretty much every time we cross the white line in the vast majority of games.

Succesful dynasty clubs bring their best at a very high level for long periods of time and in most of their matches.  Hopefully we are also on track to follow.

You’re  arguing on statistics …players aren’t robots. I’ve looked at results from all teams this season & maybe you can give me the reasons why we’ve had 3 50 plus point wins against teams who have gone onto record great wins or against sides that on form against us ..they would probably lose. The biggest reason we lost on the weekend was we came up against 2 ruckmen…one who is massive in Phillips & then a very talented Draper & we had a Grundy who is still not at optimal fitness & no real 2nd ruckman. So this was a game where it showed us how important Max is & also Lever. Yes they didn’t have Wright but apart from him (& he’s been out all season)..they’re very settled. Due to injuries we haven’t really had a settled forward or back line. We’re a great team but no team is that good that you can win all the time with the team that we can put up. We just didn’t have the right team this week due to who we had out. Simple as that. You have to pay respect to Scott & ESS who capitalised on that.

Throw in a lot of different intangibles…I can understand the loss. 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

17 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

You’re  arguing on statistics …players aren’t robots. I’ve looked at results from all teams this season & maybe you can give me the reasons why we’ve had 3 50 plus point wins against teams who have gone onto record great wins or against sides that on form against us ..they would probably lose. The biggest reason we lost on the weekend was we came up against 2 ruckmen…one who is massive in Phillips & then a very talented Draper & we had a Grundy who is still not at optimal fitness & no real 2nd ruckman. So this was a game where it showed us how important Max is & also Lever. Yes they didn’t have Wright but apart from him (& he’s been out all season)..they’re very settled. Due to injuries we haven’t really had a settled forward or back line. We’re a great team but no team is that good that you can win all the time with the team that we can put up. We just didn’t have the right team this week due to who we had out. Simple as that. You have to pay respect to Scott & ESS who capitalised on that.

Throw in a lot of different intangibles…I can understand the loss. 

 

Not arguing just pointing out that you seemed to have forgotten the loss to Brissy.

Incorect re stats....Only a small section of my post was based on comparative data in those two losses vs 2022.  Which is nonetheless compelling in those two losses vs 2022 season averages.

Your assessment re why the oppo won in terms of match ups / 2 rucks holds some weight.

It doesn't explain mood / mental state though where we seemed to come out prettty lethargic / not switched on and were jumped by both clubs and then tried to play catch up.

It is no surprise we lost both which (Statistics alert...look away if you can't handle it) history tells us you don't win matches very often if you end up 3 (or more goals) down in the first half of a match.  3 is more gettable.  4/5 and up is alot less likely.

All im pointing out is.... that the gap between the Ws & Ls is quite substantial (so far) and that hopefully with a few key ins we can close that and improve the consistency in general and in particular our starts.

Never did i say anywhere that we should have won every match or should be winning every match.

The bulk of our matches on paper and given our list yes, but very rarely does any team go through a season without a handful of Ls.  Injuries also play a part of course but most teams have a smattering of them throughout the year.  If it's an injury list as long as your arm that's a diff scenario.

[Deestar9 1,615]

Melb 3rd on the list with games lost through injury..934. Brisbane …1 game lost 

[FritschyBusiness 1,478]

A lot of talk about to 10 game win streak at the start of 2022.
We also started 2021 with a 9 game win streak, lost to Adelaide by a point then only lost 3 more games for the year and won the flag.