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Melbourne v Carlton

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231201

Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold.

Pressure

Q1: 179 - 195
Q2: 172 - 161
Q3: 179 - 166
Q4: 148 - 153
Tot: 170 - 170

Most Pressure Points

(Weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/)

Petracca: 53
Neal-Bullen: 52
Viney: 46
Sparrow: 45
Chandler: 33
Pickett: 33
Brayshaw: 28
Hunter: 26

Time in forward half

58% - 42%

Here are my calculations (not official) for time in forward half for each quarter:

Q1: 52% - 48%
Q2: 56% - 44%
Q3: 65% - 35%
Q4: 57% - 43%

Score sources

Centre bounce
0.2.2 - 2.1.13

Ball up
2.3.15 - 2.1.13

Throw in
2.0.12 - 0.1.1

Turnover
4.7.31 - 2.5.17

Kick-in
0.1.1 - 0.0.0

Shots at goal

Set position
5.10.40 - 6.5.41

General play
3.3.21 - 0.1.1

Expected Scores

81 - 45

Centre Bounce Attendances

@old55

  CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
Jack Viney 15 83 66.6 74.6
Tom Sparrow 15 83 46.8 32.2
Christian Petracca 10 56 63.5 74.6
Brodie Grundy 9 50 59.3 83.7
Max Gawn 9 50 44.8 65.5
Angus Brayshaw 7 39 10.2 16.0
James Harmes 6 33 28.7 14.6
Trent Rivers 1 6 4.2 0.0
Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 15.0 1.3
Jacob van Rooyen 0 0 6.2  
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 4.2 3.5
Clayton Oliver     82.8 86.5
James Jordon     20.3 0.2
Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
Harrison Petty     1.3 0.0

Ruck Contests

  Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 %
Max Gawn 38 48 42.7 57.8
Brodie Grundy 34 43 51.6 77.4
Jacob van Rooyen 7 9 9.3  
Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1
Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
Josh Schache     6.7 13.4
Ben Brown     3.8 3.6
Harrison Petty     3.1 0.0

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

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3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Carlton

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231201

Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold.

Pressure

Q1: 179 - 195
Q2: 172 - 161
Q3: 179 - 166
Q4: 148 - 153
Tot: 170 - 170

Most Pressure Points

(Weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/)

Petracca: 53
Neal-Bullen: 52
Viney: 46
Sparrow: 45
Chandler: 33
Pickett: 33
Brayshaw: 28
Hunter: 26

Time in forward half

58% - 42%

Here are my calculations (not official) for time in forward half for each quarter:

Q1: 52% - 48%
Q2: 56% - 44%
Q3: 65% - 35%
Q4: 57% - 43%

Score sources

Centre bounce
0.2.2 - 2.1.13

Ball up
2.3.15 - 2.1.13

Throw in
2.0.12 - 0.1.1

Turnover
4.7.31 - 2.5.17

Kick-in
0.1.1 - 0.0.0

Shots at goal

Set position
5.10.40 - 6.5.41

General play
3.3.21 - 0.1.1

Expected Scores

81 - 45

Centre Bounce Attendances

@old55

  CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
Jack Viney 15 83 66.6 74.6
Tom Sparrow 15 83 46.8 32.2
Christian Petracca 10 56 63.5 74.6
Brodie Grundy 9 50 59.3 83.7
Max Gawn 9 50 44.8 65.5
Angus Brayshaw 7 39 10.2 16.0
James Harmes 6 33 28.7 14.6
Trent Rivers 1 6 4.2 0.0
Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 15.0 1.3
Jacob van Rooyen 0 0 6.2  
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 4.2 3.5
Clayton Oliver     82.8 86.5
James Jordon     20.3 0.2
Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
Harrison Petty     1.3 0.0

Ruck Contests

  Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 %
Max Gawn 38 48 42.7 57.8
Brodie Grundy 34 43 51.6 77.4
Jacob van Rooyen 7 9 9.3  
Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1
Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
Josh Schache     6.7 13.4
Ben Brown     3.8 3.6
Harrison Petty     3.1 0.0

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

Can I just say on our pressure rating for the last quarter, it's a little misleading, because we held onto the ball and killed the clock a lot. So there's no need for pressure when you've got the ball from a mark.

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6 minutes ago, A F said:

Can I just say on our pressure rating for the last quarter, it's a little misleading, because we held onto the ball and killed the clock a lot. So there's no need for pressure when you've got the ball from a mark.

The pressure rating is the average pressure applied to the opponent's disposals only, so when Melbourne hold onto the ball it doesn't actually affect Melbourne's pressure rating. But I do agree that the pressure rating can be misleading.

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22 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

The pressure rating is the average pressure applied to the opponent's disposals only, so when Melbourne hold onto the ball it doesn't actually affect Melbourne's pressure rating. But I do agree that the pressure rating can be misleading.

If we had the ball more often and held it up (played kick to kick), there'd be less need to pressure our opponent though, right? 

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8 hours ago, A F said:

If we had the ball more often and held it up (played kick to kick), there'd be less need to pressure our opponent though, right? 

I see where you're coming from AF but it shouldn't be effected by anything we do with ball in hand.

My understanding is it would just stay at whatever level it was previous to us getting the ball while maintaining possession.

The rating only changing again after we lose possession and start applying pressure acts again while the oppo has the ball.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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A few more useless stats...

Up to and including last week vs the Dockers,  26% of our inside 50s have been converted into goals (season average).

Last night we only converted 13.6% ... our lowest in any match so far by a country mile

Using the season average we would usually score 15 goals last night for a total of 92 points, not including behinds.

Our best result this season was against the Swans where we posted an impressive 35% for a score of 21.8. 134

Round 7 vs North was our next highest ... 34% (rounded down) with a score of 22.7. 139

In steady decline since then.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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12 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Carlton

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231201

Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold.

Pressure

Q1: 179 - 195
Q2: 172 - 161
Q3: 179 - 166
Q4: 148 - 153
Tot: 170 - 170

Most Pressure Points

(Weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/)

Petracca: 53
Neal-Bullen: 52
Viney: 46
Sparrow: 45
Chandler: 33
Pickett: 33
Brayshaw: 28
Hunter: 26

Time in forward half

58% - 42%

Here are my calculations (not official) for time in forward half for each quarter:

Q1: 52% - 48%
Q2: 56% - 44%
Q3: 65% - 35%
Q4: 57% - 43%

Score sources

Centre bounce
0.2.2 - 2.1.13

Ball up
2.3.15 - 2.1.13

Throw in
2.0.12 - 0.1.1

Turnover
4.7.31 - 2.5.17

Kick-in
0.1.1 - 0.0.0

Shots at goal

Set position
5.10.40 - 6.5.41

General play
3.3.21 - 0.1.1

Expected Scores

81 - 45

Centre Bounce Attendances

@old55

  CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 %
Jack Viney 15 83 66.6 74.6
Tom Sparrow 15 83 46.8 32.2
Christian Petracca 10 56 63.5 74.6
Brodie Grundy 9 50 59.3 83.7
Max Gawn 9 50 44.8 65.5
Angus Brayshaw 7 39 10.2 16.0
James Harmes 6 33 28.7 14.6
Trent Rivers 1 6 4.2 0.0
Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 15.0 1.3
Jacob van Rooyen 0 0 6.2  
Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 4.2 3.5
Clayton Oliver     82.8 86.5
James Jordon     20.3 0.2
Tom McDonald     5.4 0.0
Harrison Petty     1.3 0.0

Ruck Contests

  Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 %
Max Gawn 38 48 42.7 57.8
Brodie Grundy 34 43 51.6 77.4
Jacob van Rooyen 7 9 9.3  
Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1
Tom McDonald     8.9 7.0
Josh Schache     6.7 13.4
Ben Brown     3.8 3.6
Harrison Petty     3.1 0.0

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

Thanks wheelo ....do you have hit outs to advantage by player by any chance?

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7 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Thanks wheelo ....do you have hit outs to advantage by player by any chance?

Yes I do have the hitouts to advantage by player.

Hitouts, Melbourne v Carlton

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. %
(2023)
To Adv. %
(2022)
Max Gawn 38 20 9 30.6 33.6
Brodie Grundy 34 11 7 34.6 30.2
Jacob van Rooyen 7 2 1 18.2  
Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
Harrison Petty       22.2  
Ben Brown       0.0 14.3
Josh Schache         33.3

Hitouts to advantage by round

  Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Brodie Grundy 7.5 4 5 10 13 12 5 9 7 8 4 6 7
Max Gawn 6.1 7 0       5 6 6 4 9 9 9
Jacob van Rooyen 0.4     1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Tom McDonald 0.3 1 0   1 0         0 0  
Harrison Petty 0.2 0 0 1 1 0 0   0 0      
Ben Brown 0.0 0 0 0                  
Christian Petracca 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Schache 0.0             0          

 

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9 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

A few more useless stats...

Up to and including last week vs the Dockers,  26% of our inside 50s have been converted into goals (season average).

Last night we only converted 13.6% ... our lowest in any match so far by a country mile

Using the season average we would usually score 15 goals last night for a total of 92 points, not including behinds.

Our best result this season was against the Swans where we posted an impressive 35% for a score of 21.8. 134

Round 7 vs North was our next highest ... 34% (rounded down) with a score of 22.7. 139

In steady decline since then.

Accumulative fatigue would absolutely be a factor why our inside 50 conversion rate has declined as the season has progressed.

Less wave running and the resulring slower transition mean more crowded forwardlines and time for defensive zones to get set and fewer players running ahead of, and towards, the ball to provide a free option inside 50.

And of course our disposal efficiency gets worse. Aa an example, we only had one effective disposal inside our 50 in the second quarter of the freo game. That's scarcely believable.

Edited by binman
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10 minutes ago, binman said:

Accumulative fatigue would absolutely be a factor why our inside 50 conversion rate has declined as the season has progressed.

Less wave running and the resulring slower transition mean more crowded forwardlines and time for defensive zones to get set and fewer players running ahead of, and towards, the ball to provide a free option inside 50.

And of course our disposal efficiency gets worse. Aa an example, we only had one effective disposal inside our 50 in the second quarter of the freo game. That's scarcely believable.

@Demon Dynasty @binman

A large factor in the drop off in our goals / inside 50 is our accuracy. Shots / inside 50 has been quite consistent between rounds 5 and 12 but our accuracy has really dropped off.

Round Inside 50s Shots Shots /
Inside 50
Goals Goals /
Inside 50
Accuracy
1 60 30 50.0 17 28.3 56.7
2 54 21 38.9 13 24.1 61.9
3 60 33 55.0 21 35.0 63.6
4 58 33 56.9 19 32.8 57.6
5 55 24 43.6 11 20.0 45.8
6 53 25 47.2 15 28.3 60.0
7 64 30 46.9 22 34.4 73.3
8 61 26 42.6 13 21.3 50.0
9 66 29 43.9 15 22.7 51.7
10 48 23 47.9 11 22.9 47.8
11 58 26 44.8 10 17.2 38.5
12 59 28 47.5 8 13.6 28.6
Edited by WheeloRatings
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42 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes I do have the hitouts to advantage by player.

Hitouts, Melbourne v Carlton

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. %
(2023)
To Adv. %
(2022)
Max Gawn 38 20 9 30.6 33.6
Brodie Grundy 34 11 7 34.6 30.2
Jacob van Rooyen 7 2 1 18.2  
Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
Harrison Petty       22.2  
Ben Brown       0.0 14.3
Josh Schache         33.3

Hitouts to advantage by round

  Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Brodie Grundy 7.5 4 5 10 13 12 5 9 7 8 4 6 7
Max Gawn 6.1 7 0       5 6 6 4 9 9 9
Jacob van Rooyen 0.4     1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Tom McDonald 0.3 1 0   1 0         0 0  
Harrison Petty 0.2 0 0 1 1 0 0   0 0      
Ben Brown 0.0 0 0 0                  
Christian Petracca 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Schache 0.0             0          

 

That's nut wheelo. Love it.

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3 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

@Demon Dynasty @binman

A large factor in the drop off in our goals / inside 50 is our accuracy. Shots / inside 50 has been quite consistent between rounds 5 and 12 but our accuracy has really dropped off.

Round Inside 50s Shots Shots /
Inside 50
Goals Goals /
Inside 50
Accuracy
1 60 30 50.0 17 28.3 56.7
2 54 21 38.9 13 24.1 61.9
3 60 33 55.0 21 35.0 63.6
4 58 33 56.9 19 32.8 57.6
5 55 24 43.6 11 20.0 45.8
6 53 25 47.2 15 28.3 60.0
7 64 30 46.9 22 34.4 73.3
8 61 26 42.6 13 21.3 50.0
9 66 29 43.9 15 22.7 51.7
10 48 23 47.9 11 22.9 47.8
11 58 26 44.8 10 17.2 38.5
12 59 28 47.5 8 13.6 28.6

Yep. 

I assume goal kicking accuracy is included in the DE ratings.

And logic suggests accuracy from set shots is very much impacted by fatigue.

You see the impact in games at the end qs, or after long sprints, when a player is gassed and has a set shot. Chandlers third point, was a good example. 

Add accumulative fatigue to the mix and inaccuracy is inevitable.

I think we have average technique accross the board, and again logic suggests fatigue would have more an impact on our DE than say the pies, who are on average better kicks.

That said, sidebottom out is huge for them, because they really rely on their 4 elite kicks- daicos x 2, peddles and sidebottom - to hit high risk kicks on transition.

Lose 25% of elite kicks and their scoring chains will break more often

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But the accuracy is also related to speed of ball movement and one, preparedness to take risks and two, execute. 

Faster ball movement creates free options inside 50 in good spots and more out the back, running into open goal type goals.

And executing riskier kicks means more use of the corridor and therefore better looks at goal.

This is one of the reasons that it frustrates me the media doesn't factor in fitness levels and fatigue - except in rhe most superficial way - into their analysis. 

I mean it is fundamental. And is the key factor in so many games, both in terms of the outcome but also the quality of the game in terms of skill execution. They use phrased like x team is just not on today instead.

I have made reaaly good money this year, and the previous two seasons, at this time of year, factoring fatigue and the resulting drop off into my footy betting. 

For example last night I absolutely slammed the suns because one, their game plan is so contest to contest based it is less impacted by fatigue (because it isnt as reliant as say the pies on hitting targets on transition- they smash it forward and hope to win the next contest).

And two, because they were super smart and went up to darwin a week before the dogs game and stayed up there to acclimatise.

Crows started well, but could not handle the humidity and blew up  

Edited by binman
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3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes I do have the hitouts to advantage by player.

Hitouts, Melbourne v Carlton

  Ruck
Contests
Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. %
(2023)
To Adv. %
(2022)
Max Gawn 38 20 9 30.6 33.6
Brodie Grundy 34 11 7 34.6 30.2
Jacob van Rooyen 7 2 1 18.2  
Tom McDonald       25.0 33.3
Harrison Petty       22.2  
Ben Brown       0.0 14.3
Josh Schache         33.3

Hitouts to advantage by round

  Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Brodie Grundy 7.5 4 5 10 13 12 5 9 7 8 4 6 7
Max Gawn 6.1 7 0       5 6 6 4 9 9 9
Jacob van Rooyen 0.4     1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Tom McDonald 0.3 1 0   1 0         0 0  
Harrison Petty 0.2 0 0 1 1 0 0   0 0      
Ben Brown 0.0 0 0 0                  
Christian Petracca 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Schache 0.0             0          

 

Thanks Wheelo.  Is it possible to post the HO to Adv by player each week or too much work?

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3 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

How about each of us visit Wheelo’s website, and regularly. He deserves some recognition (clicks) for what he has provided us to date. 

I look at it often. Brilliant site.

Very user friendly. Partic how I use it, which is predominantly to zero in on our key stats and also comparing teams accross mutiple data points.

For stats, I now only use wheelo and footy wire. 

And i always look at the timeline function in the match area on the afl app as they post some really intersting, and often very obscure (eg one effective disposal inside 50 in the second q against freo) champion data stats.

Edited by binman
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2 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Thanks Wheelo.  Is it possible to post the HO to Adv by player each week or too much work?

Yes definitely, I can add that into the standard stats that I include each week - it's not too much work. If I forget, just remind me! 😊

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2 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes definitely, I can add that into the standard stats that I include each week - it's not too much work. If I forget, just remind me! 😊

That would be awesome.  Let me know if you're ok with me using that stat (only)

It's the minor missing ingredient in the player ratings i put together.

Will mention you in the credits of course 😁

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22 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

That would be awesome.  Let me know if you're ok with me using that stat (only)

It's the minor missing ingredient in the player ratings i put together.

Will mention you in the credits of course 😁

Yes, absolutely, I'm more than happy for you to use it!

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Ratings to Rnd 12, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

All player and team ratings for 2023 will now include 'hit outs to advantage' courtesy of wheeloratings.com

This may skew the % change and rank comparisons somewhat when looking at a ruck or anyone pinch hitting in the ruck vs 2022 which does not include hit outs to advantage.  Regular rucks would have a marginally higher 2022 rating if they were to be adjusted.

Player 2023 Rating 2023 Rank 2022 Rating % Change vs 2022 2022 Rank Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver 5.285 1 5.320 -0.66 1 0
C Petracca 4.863 2 4.456 9.13 2 0
A Brayshaw 3.821 3 3.839 -0.47 5 2
T Rivers 3.663 4 2.423 51.18 18 14
J Jordon > 3.641 5 3.164 15.08 9 4
Jack Viney 3.511 6 3.971 -11.58 3 -3
Steven May 3.248 7 3.971 -18.21 3 -4
B Grundy 3.198 8 - - - -
Max Gawn # 3.153 9 3.215 -1.93 8 -1
Ed Langdon 3.104 10 3.109 -0.16 11 1
T Sparrow 3.084 11 2.665 15.72 16 5
Jake Bowey 3.078 12 2.856 7.77 13 1
L Hunter 3.023 13 - - - -
Jake Lever 3.023 13 2.703 11.84 14 1
J Harmes 2.938 15 3.082 -4.67 12 -3
A Tomlinson 2.906 16 2.079 39.78 22 6
M Hibberd 2.865 17 2.613 9.64 17 0
C Salem 2.850 18 3.363 -15.25 7 -11
A N-Bullen 2.754 19 2.688 2.46 15 -4
K Pickett 2.538 20 2.118 19.83 21 1
K Chandler 2.472 21 - - - -
H Petty # 2.432 22 2.392 1.67 19 -3
J V Rooyen 2.323 23 - - - -
B Fritsch 2.314 24 1.936 19.52 27 3
Judd McVee 2.219 25 - - - -
T McDonald # 2.054 26 1.939 5.93 26 0
Ben Brown < 2.033 27 1.759 15.58 29 2
C Spargo 1.912 28 1.981 -3.48 24 -4
J Melksham > 1.437 29 1.947 -26.19 25 -4
J Schache * 1.375 30 - - - -
B Laurie < * 1.300 31 - - - -
Joel Smith * 1.150 32 2.239 -48.64 20 -12
D Turner * 1.075 33 - - - -
Team Rating # 65.90   68.89 -4.34    

* Played less than two full matches (in total) - player rating compromised

# 2022 Rating does not include hit outs to advantage

< Subbed Out at least once or more

> Subbed In at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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14 hours ago, binman said:

Accumulative fatigue would absolutely be a factor why our inside 50 conversion rate has declined as the season has progressed.

Less wave running and the resulring slower transition mean more crowded forwardlines and time for defensive zones to get set and fewer players running ahead of, and towards, the ball to provide a free option inside 50.

And of course our disposal efficiency gets worse. Aa an example, we only had one effective disposal inside our 50 in the second quarter of the freo game. That's scarcely believable.

I'm not sure if it's supported by data, but to my eye at least, we seem to have varied our ball movement as fatigue has set in too.

Earlier in the season, we were going very centrally to the central 20m out hotspot, and the last 2-3 weeks we've reverted to the pockets, and it's seen accuracy decrease.

I wonder if it's a deliberate thing. Like, the coaches have said, look, fatigue will hit you earlier in games/you'll carry it in with you to games, and so take the easier options when they present.

And that means not having to defend corridor/central slingshot, so entries become wider and safer towards the boundary. But with this, comes greater inaccuracy.

Edited by A F
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10 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

This may skew the % change and rank comparisons somewhat when looking at a ruck or anyone pinch hitting in the ruck vs 2022 which does not include hit outs to advantage.  Regular rucks would have a marginally higher 2022 rating if they were to be adjusted.

I can provide the game-by-game hit outs to advantage for 2022 if you would like to incorporate them into your 2022 ratings.

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47 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I can provide the game-by-game hit outs to advantage for 2022 if you would like to incorporate them into your 2022 ratings.

Yes that would be great pls

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8 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Yes that would be great pls

Here are the round-by-round hitouts to advantage for 2022.

  Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Max Gawn 9.1 8 6 3 13 5 11 12 7 7 10 6 11 8     11 3 15 10 6 13 6 14 15
Luke Jackson 3.2 3 5 2 1 0 2   4 1 2 0 2 3 4   4 4 3 3 4 7 12 2 2
Sam Weideman 1.3     0 0 0 0 4       0     4 4     1 0          
Tom McDonald 0.6 0 1 0 0 2   0 0 1 1                            
Ben Brown 0.1 0 0       0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0     0 1 0 0 1
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