COVID & AFL 2021

[Jaded No More 67,641]

Everyone needs to stop looking at raw numbers. 
We are basically day one of a 14 day lockdown with 13 cases. 3 unlinked and they are confident at least one of the 3 will be linked shortly. 
Today is day one of a new infection cycle. We need to really run down the mystery case numbers. If we do then there’s no reason we can’t be out in 14 days. Just need people not to be absolute [censored] stains and do the right thing. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Jaded

[rjay 24,596]

This woman has given up...her attitude from the start has put us where we are.

The last sentence is a beauty..political spin when leadership is needed.

I don't have any confidence now that we will be out of this mess for a long time.

"I appreciate what we are going through looks difficult but every state in Australia will need to come to terms with the fact that when you get to a certain level of vaccination and open up, Delta will creep in.

"We can't pretend that we will have a zero cases around Australia with Delta.

"As the Doherty report says, once you get to 80 per cent double dose and you have to open up, everyone will have to learn to live with Delta.

"In New South Wales, we are learning that earlier than others."

[Superunknown 4,058]

13 minutes ago, rjay said:

This woman has given up...her attitude from the start has put us where we are.

The last sentence is a beauty..political spin when leadership is needed.

I don't have any confidence now that we will be out of this mess for a long time.

"I appreciate what we are going through looks difficult but every state in Australia will need to come to terms with the fact that when you get to a certain level of vaccination and open up, Delta will creep in.

"We can't pretend that we will have a zero cases around Australia with Delta.

"As the Doherty report says, once you get to 80 per cent double dose and you have to open up, everyone will have to learn to live with Delta.

"In New South Wales, we are learning that earlier than others."

Its the let it rip in disguise

those of us in NNSW - no cases - are locked down for another week “to align with Sydney” - for no apparent reason. 
I’ve given up being able to get to the GF (via QLD ) at all. 
 

can’t wait for the Fed and State elections

[Diamond_Jim 12,357]

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

We are basically day one of a 14 day lockdown with 13 cases

aaaah....... Day 15 I believe and except for the 8 days in which we weren't able to visit another house... Day 30.

So it's now almost 40 days since visiting another person was permitted.

[binman 41,948]

1 hour ago, Jaded said:

Everyone needs to stop looking at raw numbers. 
We are basically day one of a 14 day lockdown with 13 cases. 3 unlinked and they are confident at least one of the 3 will be linked shortly. 
Today is day one of a new infection cycle. We need to really run down the mystery case numbers. If we do then there’s no reason we can’t be out in 14 days. Just need people not to be absolute [censored] stains and do the right thing. 

Spot on.

With one exception. Tomorrow is day one a 14 day lock down as the current one was scheduled to finish tonight at 11:59pm.

I'm actually quietly confident that if we have some luck we'll get it down close to zero. 

The engagement party does not seem to have been so called super spreader event (it was 8 days ago, attendees started to get test on Sunday, when the first positive test came and in and and surely all have been tested by now) and at this stage, as you say, they have very good handle on chains of transmission. 

Of course all depends on no further mystery case breaches from NSW, people doing the right thing and a healthy dose of luck.  

[binman 41,948]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

This woman has given up...her attitude from the start has put us where we are.

The last sentence is a beauty..political spin when leadership is needed.

I don't have any confidence now that we will be out of this mess for a long time.

"I appreciate what we are going through looks difficult but every state in Australia will need to come to terms with the fact that when you get to a certain level of vaccination and open up, Delta will creep in.

"We can't pretend that we will have a zero cases around Australia with Delta.

"As the Doherty report says, once you get to 80 per cent double dose and you have to open up, everyone will have to learn to live with Delta.

"In New South Wales, we are learning that earlier than others."

That is such an incredibly disingenuous comment. Not to mention dangerous

As Dan Andrews said today the modelling by the Doherty Institute is predicted on low daily community transmission case numbers, not numbers in the hundreds. 

[Superunknown 4,058]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

That is such an incredibly disingenuous comment. Not to mention dangerous

As Dan Andrews said today the modelling by the Doherty Institute is predicted on low daily community transmission case numbers, not numbers in the hundreds. 

I think it’s quite accurate - look at her language. Without going into it too much, I watch her daily as I live in NSW, and her intent has been clear from the start. 

[Grr-owl 1,169]

On 8/16/2021 at 8:31 AM, Jaded said:

I just want to say that as a Jewish person, I am disgusted at what has gone on in that community. A community that I have purposefully distanced myself from. But I can tell you categorically that the large majority of the Jewish community are furious. The video of the party was leaked and sent to authorities by the community. The $350,000 of collective fines and the massive contract tracing efforts have only been made possible because good law abiding members of that community were not willing to protect these idiots.

The outrage is real and I hope that the greater Victorian community can see that those people are a minority of selfish [censored] who use their religious radicalism to justify their [censored] behaviour in all walks of life. 

 

 

I see it, Jaded. I live among another group similarly though oriented to a different god. Same problem. 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,259]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

Our track record is not good though is it?

anyway, I’m not dealing with it well today. I’ll stop posting on this thread in case I’m dragging others down too. 
 

Hey Dub, don’t feel like you have to stop posting on this thread just because someone takes you to task (unnecessarily imo). Better days ahead! ❤️💙

[TRIGON 4,768]

42 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Hey Dub, don’t feel like you have to stop posting on this thread just because someone takes you to task (unnecessarily imo). Better days ahead! ❤️💙

Yes, here's an uplifting blast from the past...just don't go confusing it for a Gladys Berejiklian COVID case numbers update:

 

[binman 41,948]

1 hour ago, Superunknown said:

I think it’s quite accurate - look at her language. Without going into it too much, I watch her daily as I live in NSW, and her intent has been clear from the start. 

To be clear I meant the comment from Gladys was disingenuous, not rjay's

[Diamond_Jim 12,357]

Just for those who were wondering...what's next

Two cases of Legionnaire's disease reported in Cranbourne.

Apparently symptoms are very similar to Covid 

[daisycutter 29,331]

14 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Just for those who were wondering...what's next

Two cases of Legionnaire's disease reported in Cranbourne.

Apparently symptoms are very similar to Covid 

i'd imagine a lot of airconditioners in commercial premises haven't been getting regular usage and maintenance

[Jara 1,153]

4 hours ago, DubDee said:

Our track record is not good though is it?

anyway, I’m not dealing with it well today. I’ll stop posting on this thread in case I’m dragging others down too. 
 

Good luck, friend. Lockdown/s tough, but the alternative's worse. As someone else said above, the footy has been a pleasant distraction. Maybe we'll even see Max holding up the cup.

[Lucifers Hero 38,982]

Can someone clarify what a 'mystery' case is.  It isn't always clear in news reports nor the Premier's descriptions. 

Options:

1. One that is not linked to a known cluster.  
2. One that is linked to a known cluster but they don't know how covid was transmitted.
3. One that is not linked to a known cluster and they don't know how covid was transmitted.
4. Both # 2 and # 3 ie transmission unknown.

Each day we are told the number of 'mystery' cases for that day.  Has anyone seen the total outstanding 'mystery' cases at any given time.  Presumably some that are 'mystery' today aren't a few days later when all the checking is completed.

I feel we (the public) would have a much clearer picture of local transmission status if we were given the running total as the number of 'mystery' cases seems to be the critical number that will determine easing of restrictions.  And, getting a crowd to the footy!

It would make more sense to me if the goal was zero mystery cases after 'X' days of checking (eg after 5 days) rather than zero daily 'mystery' cases.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Lucifer's Hero

[bing181 8,909]

4 hours ago, nacnud said:

You could get 100 cases in a day and that would still be okay 

Not if you're one of the 100 who gets seriously ill, suffers long-term effects, or dies.

[bing181 8,909]

2 hours ago, binman said:

That is such an incredibly disingenuous comment. Not to mention dangerous

As Dan Andrews said today the modelling by the Doherty Institute is predicted on low daily community transmission case numbers, not numbers in the hundreds. 

Just gaslighting of the first order from Gladys, you don't have to look very far to see the reality of what she's proposing.

e.g., I'm in France where we have 80% of the over-50's and 60% of the rest of the adult population fully vaxxed - currently running at just under 30,000 cases per day with over 100 deaths. The health services are running at their limit, including intensive care. Just don't have a serious car crash. That's what "living with Delta" means.

Comparing relative populations, that 30K would translate to around 11 - 12K cases per day in Australia. 

(Also, there are still plenty of restrictions here as well, especially inside, large gatherings etc.).

[Jara 1,153]

4 hours ago, rjay said:

This woman has given up...her attitude from the start has put us where we are.

The last sentence is a beauty..political spin when leadership is needed.

I don't have any confidence now that we will be out of this mess for a long time.

"I appreciate what we are going through looks difficult but every state in Australia will need to come to terms with the fact that when you get to a certain level of vaccination and open up, Delta will creep in.

"We can't pretend that we will have a zero cases around Australia with Delta.

"As the Doherty report says, once you get to 80 per cent double dose and you have to open up, everyone will have to learn to live with Delta.

"In New South Wales, we are learning that earlier than others."

I'm just catching up with the day's news. Lemme get this straight. Berejiklian is suggesting we have to learn to live with covid? Ie Let it rip? This just after her state's been given the majority of the new Pfizer doses?

Jeez... I didn't mind the extra shots going to NSW because that's where the worst outbreak is (even though that was partly her fault because of her pathetic lockdown), but it's a bit rich if they're going to vax up then let the rest of us suffer - especially Victoria, whose residents have suffered more than anyone.

[Jaded No More 67,641]

Scomo the useless [censored] has just announced Pfiiiiiiizer will become available for 16-39 year olds from August 30th! 
For my birthday this year (another one in lockdown), I’m going to try to get vaccinated. What a present! 

[binman 41,948]

9 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Scomo the useless [censored] has just announced Pfiiiiiiizer will become available for 16-39 year olds from August 30th! 
For my birthday this year (another one in lockdown), I’m going to try to get vaccinated. What a present! 

Another comms screw up. And all because he wants a popularity sugar hit.

How many people under 40 are now going to cancel their AZ shot they have an appointment for?

Which slow the Vax rate down.

And of course they won't be able to get a Pfizer appointment for ages, certainly not 1 September.

But will wait.

And in doing so slow the Vax rate down

Why not wait until August 31 and mitigate the first issue?

 

[daisycutter 29,331]

1 hour ago, binman said:

To be clear I meant the comment from Gladys was disingenuous, not rjay's

i think some here may be blowing up a bit what gladys was trying to say

she was reiterating what the doherty report was saying to encourage her state to get vaccinated as quickly as possible to meet that threshold. Which is precisely what many people here have previously stated i.e. that a high level of vaccination is required to get back to some form of normalcy

surely no-one here believes that we can stay in lockdown until covid is completely eliminated

[rjay 24,596]

21 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

surely no-one here believes that we can stay in lockdown until covid is completely eliminated

No (at least until we eliminate the current infections), but we're going to have to keep going in and out of lockdown until people are fully vaccinated and the way that's going it's nearly going to be the same thing.

[binman 41,948]

1 hour ago, daisycutter said:

i think some here may be blowing up a bit what gladys was trying to say

she was reiterating what the doherty report was saying to encourage her state to get vaccinated as quickly as possible to meet that threshold. Which is precisely what many people here have previously stated i.e. that a high level of vaccination is required to get back to some form of normalcy

surely no-one here believes that we can stay in lockdown until covid is completely eliminated

But that's my point. That is not what the doherty reports says.

It days at 70% Vax rate lockdowns will not be needed as a suppression strategy.

But only if cases are low. 

From memory the threshold was 20-30 cases a day.

If cases are in the hundreds a day lockdowns will still be required under the 4 stage plan based in the domestic report.

That's why I day she is being disingenuous 

 

[daisycutter 29,331]

51 minutes ago, binman said:

But that's my point. That is not what the doherty reports says.

It days at 70% Vax rate lockdowns will not be needed as a suppression strategy.

But only if cases are low. 

From memory the threshold was 20-30 cases a day.

If cases are in the hundreds a day lockdowns will still be required under the 4 stage plan based in the domestic report.

That's why I day she is being disingenuous 

 

she never got into that detail. really, you are just looking for reason to be picky

(not highlighting you) there is just too much finger pointing, blame gaming, interstate slanging off and blatant political point scoring. the country as a whole is really doing a pretty good job compared to almost any other country in the whole world. this whole covid thing is just such uncharted waters where there is no single best way to solve everything. sure things could have been done better some mistakes avoided and preferably less idiots amongst ourselves. every state has had a different mix of problems and advantages.   I think all the goverments, state and federal, have done a reasonably good job to keep our statistics so low on an international comparison.

a liitle bit more of a positive overall perspective and less obsessiveness over the nitpicky details would benefit us all

sorry to rant, but the point scoring is really [censored] me off

[Superunknown 4,058]

2 hours ago, daisycutter said:

i think some here may be blowing up a bit what gladys was trying to say

she was reiterating what the doherty report was saying to encourage her state to get vaccinated as quickly as possible to meet that threshold. Which is precisely what many people here have previously stated i.e. that a high level of vaccination is required to get back to some form of normalcy

surely no-one here believes that we can stay in lockdown until covid is completely eliminated

There is a split apparently in NSW LNP cabinet along the lines of strong lockdowns until vaccinated at scale vs let it rip .

Her language in this outbreak has been signposting what they’re really doing. 
 

“people need to get vaccinated”

”the only way out is vaccinations”*

”we don’t know why these sick people aren’t vaccinated “

”x of y people in icu are not vaccinated “

”it’s up to the people now to get vaccinated “

I’m not saying vaccinations aren’t important but her actions in not locking down harder and earlier show what she’s up to . Either that or she is woefully inept. Or both. And she can’t admit her mistakes - ego. Doubling down on vaccinations. 
 

I live in NNSW and have family in Mel and Macedon Ranges and would really prefer to avoid an entirely avoidable 4 month lockdown. Especially in the regions where we have no cases but appear to be locked down with Sydney for no particular reason (perhaps as Sydney is not ring fenced like Melbourne was - yet). Sydney is in for what will be a 4-5 month - again, entirely avoidable - lockdown. Gold standard hubris.

Yes, I’m pssed about it.

*clotty and chant have clearly differed from her here - chant for public health and hospital loading reasons and Morrison as he sees the political fallout writ large 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Superunknown