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The Significance of 9 Wins in a Row

Flower Magic
Flower Magic
in Melbourne Demons

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1 minute ago, Kozzie4PM said:

Are premierships rarely won by teams with a 9-0 start? I reckon in general there's a relatively strong correlation between winning heaps of games and premierships. 

I never said teams who win heaps of games rarely win premierships, I said teams who start strongly like 9-0, rarely win premierships

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    2 minutes ago, one_demon said:

    I never said teams who win heaps of games rarely win premierships, I said teams who start strongly like 9-0, rarely win premierships

    Sure. I just don't reckon that's true though. What's your threshold for "rare"? What percentage of teams that have gone 9-0 have gone on to win flags?

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    9 wins in 9 games. I’m loving it. After years of despair, we have to BELIEVE it is our year. 
     

    As the Reverend Neale Daniher said “ Why not? Why not us?”  We can win the premiership. 

    There is still room to improve and we have to, with big tests against Dogs, Lions and Power.  

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    25 minutes ago, one_demon said:

    I never said teams who win heaps of games rarely win premierships, I said teams who start strongly like 9-0, rarely win premierships

     

    12 minutes ago, Kozzie4PM said:

    Sure. I just don't reckon that's true though. What's your threshold for "rare"? What percentage of teams that have gone 9-0 have gone on to win flags?

    In the last 20 or so years there's Essendon 00, Geelong 09, Geelong 11 that went 9-0 and won the flag. St Kilda 09 and kangas 16 didn't win the flag after being 9-0. I've probably missed a few but that's already too many successes to be considered "rare".

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    Add Hawthorn 08 to the premiers column after being 9-0 and St Kilda 04 and dockers 15 to the "not premiers" column. From what I can tell, since 2000 (inclusive) teams that have been 9-0 have won the flag 50% of the time.

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    1 hour ago, one_demon said:

    I never said teams who win heaps of games rarely win premierships, I said teams who start strongly like 9-0, rarely win premierships

    Well, since 2000, 8 teams (other than Melb) have started with a 9-0 record. 

    4 or 50% became premiers (Ess in 2000, Haw in 08 and Geel in 09 and 11), 1 got runner up (StK in 09), 2 bowed out in prelims (StK 04 and Freo 15) and 1 finished 8th (NM in 16).

    I like these odds. We’re in it up to our eyeballs.

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    9 hours ago, one_demon said:

    Yes all teams play twenty-two games, I can't argue with that, but you can end up in a situation where you've only lost three games in the home and away season and then go out it straight sets because you weren't able to play your best football comes finals time.  This is why teams who start the season strongly like we have, rarely win premierships.  I'm using history as a guide.

    Earlier in the year someone started a thread “How many wins for finals?”, basically they went on to say they if we beat all the weaker sides and pinch the odd game or two against a top 4-6 side we can scrape in. I commented that what’s the point of making finals on the back of an effort like that, if we can’t beat them during the home and away season how do we expect to in the finals.

    Did you watch the games against Carlton, North and the Hawks? We weren’t playing anywhere near our best in those games but did enough to win. In years gone by they were the games we would of dropped, just because we didn’t doesn’t mean we’ve peaked. In some cases it means that us playing at 60 - 70% is still good enough to beat a lot of sides. (Another topic for another day is there isn’t enough talent for 18 clubs so going to 20 is just ridiculous).

    I’m also using history as guide, history tells us that teams that have great defensive units usually do well in September. Also that teams that have a core group of players coming through together in the 23 - 27 year age bracket. Add in a bit of luck with injuries and a bit of magic with Kozi Pickett and away we go. Obviously none of this guarantees us a flag but we’re heading in the right direction. We can make our own history, I said a few weeks ago I think we can go 13 & 0 into the break and I still believe that.

     

    Edited by Bombay Airconditioning
    Spelling

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    8 hours ago, Ben E said:

    Well, since 2000, 8 teams (other than Melb) have started with a 9-0 record. 

    4 or 50% became premiers

    How many in the last one hundred years became premiers?

    Edited by one_demon

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    On 5/17/2021 at 6:56 PM, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

    So seriously, hands up, who thought we'd be in this position of 9 - 0.

    Since 2018, I've wanted us just to finish top 4 and thought we had a side capable of that, but never really thought that we would be without a loss up to this point in the season.

    No that we are here, I'm not sure why we couldn't beat either or both of the Bulldogs and Lions, although I'm equally not sure that we are playing at our best, so wouldn't be surprised if we went on and lost one or both games.  I think it should help our form getting Viney back sometime in the next few weeks hopefully.

    Dont think i specified 9-0 as I suggested we win and beat every team in our decade of dominance but certainly said the existing players had depth an flexibility to win multiple games and flags.

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    36 minutes ago, one_demon said:

    How many in the last one hundred years became premiers?

    Why don't you look yourself? You made the outrageous statement without doing any research that 9-0 teams rarely win premierships and recent history shows around 50% win. Further I see little relevance to  data from 100 years ago in a very differently structured competition.

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    4 minutes ago, ManDee said:

    Why don't you look yourself? You made the outrageous statement without doing any research that 9-0 teams rarely win premierships and recent history shows around 50% win. Further I see little relevance to  data from 100 years ago in a very differently structured competition.

    ? I was going to suggest one provide the evidence for his/her own claim. This article goes back to 1970 and suggests the only other 9-0 team was West Coast in 91 who ended up runners up: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theroar.com.au/2021/04/29/what-does-the-unbeaten-start-from-the-bulldogs-and-demons-mean/amp/

    Of course the dees were 9-0 in 56 and went on to win the flag. Anyway, I think I've made my point ?.

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    38 minutes ago, ManDee said:

    Why don't you look yourself? 

    Looks like Kozzie4PM has given you your answer.  Thanks for your time.

    Edited by one_demon

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    20 minutes ago, Kozzie4PM said:

    ? I was going to suggest one provide the evidence for his/her own claim. This article goes back to 1970 and suggests the only other 9-0 team was West Coast in 91 who ended up runners up: 

    Thank you.  Case closed.

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    49 minutes ago, one_demon said:

    Thank you.  Case closed.

    I will take that as an admission that you were wrong.

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    18 hours ago, Cassiew said:

    The heck with that. Dog have never won the minor premiership and I want to keep it like that. Even if we don’t mKe the gf, that will be at least one drought that’s broken. I like dogs not being on top

    I generally agree with you but with the proviso that the Dogs being on top, if we are 2nd., guarantees the Lions aren't, and that we are not at risk of a Gabba Prelim.

    I would prefer us too be No.1 but if not possible, then the Dogs success comes into play for our prelim and GF hopes.

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    The significance of 9 wins in a row is one thing but being 3 games clear in the top two is equally important. 

    If for example we go 7 - 6 in our remaining 13 games to finish with a modest (on current form) 16 -6 record, any side currently sitting third to seven will need to go 11 - 2 from here on in to gain 17 wins and overtake us. Richmond will need to go 12 -1 to overtake us. 

    The chasing pack all still have to play the following:

    Brisbane: Richmond (twice), Geelong, West Coast.

    Port Adelaide: Geelong, Sydney, W Bulldogs. 

    West Coast: Richmond, W Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane. 

    Sydney: Port Adelaide, W Bulldogs, West Coast. 

    Geelong: Port Adelaide, W Bulldogs, Brisbane, Richmond

    Richmond: Brisbane (twice), West Coast, Geelong

    Any of our games we also win against these opponents effectively become doubly valuable in this context. 

    A 16 win season is likely to see us play an entire finals campaign at the MCG and only have us leave Victoria three times after June 4 until the end of September. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    6 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    I generally agree with you but with the proviso that the Dogs being on top, if we are 2nd., guarantees the Lions aren't, and that we are not at risk of a Gabba Prelim.

    I would prefer us too be No.1 but if not possible, then the Dogs success comes into play for our prelim and GF hopes.

    If we finish first and don’t win the Gf, st least we can say it’s our most successful season since 1964. Also we finish on top we’re guaranteed to play in our home jumper no matter who we play

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    10 hours ago, ManDee said:

    I will take that as an admission that you were wrong.

    I apologise for my previous statements.  I could've been kinder with responses

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