I've always been a big fan on swapping future picks with the main reasons being: 

-Get the player now instead of 12 months time.

-Develop that player 12 months ahead of the initial player you would of taken next year.

-It's one of the only leg ups in the comp you can get these days. The other being getting a free agent (not having to trade for him).

The Cons:

-Sliding further down the ladder than expected and giving up a good pick.

-Media scrutiny if you get it wrong.

My question is, do we ask North if they'd be interested in swapping their pick 9 (most likely slide to 11) with our future 1st? We also can try Adelaide's Pick 8 and Freo's Pick 10. I'm pretty sure the Bulldogs and Collingwood will want to swap their 1st rounders this year due to wanting points for Academy picks, but they've got Picks 12 and 13 which will slide to about 16 and 17, which is probably not going to benefit us too much.

By doing this, we can either get the best pure winger in the draft (Finlay Macrae) if he's still there at that pick, or we have an awesome pick to trade for an absolute gun if we can get one.

Cal Twomey has Macrae at Pick 12 in his Phantom Draft, and the ESPN Mock Draft has him at 9.

Write ups from Cal & Espn, and vision below if you haven't seen him. Let me know your thoughts on this.

184cm/75kg
13/3/02
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder

The younger brother of Bulldogs star Jackson, Macrae would likely have been a high possession winner this season around the ball for the Oakleigh Chargers and Vic Metro. Macrae is like his older brother in that he can find the footy: he averaged 17 disposals for the Chargers playing some forward line time last year, including 22 touches and two goals in the preliminary final. A nice kick on both feet.

--------------------------------------------

9. Finlay Macrae

Best position: Balanced midfield
Height, weight: 184cm, 75kg
Recruited from: Oakleigh Chargers
Projected draft range: 5-25
Preseason ranking: 3

Rationale: Younger brother of Western Bulldogs star Jack, Finlay is a mirror image of his older brother in the way he moves and plays. He also finds the ball just as easily. The main difference is Finlay is shorter. He drops on revision of upside after measuring in at the same height as 2019.

Strengths: Class and composure in traffic, evasion, agility, speed, distribution by hand, clean ball user, production, improving contested ball-winner, improving inside midfield craft.

Weaknesses: Unclear versatility, scoreboard impact.

 

Yes

can we swap two first rounders out in a row, i.e. 2020 and 2021? i think geelong - surprise, surprise - got special dispensation to do so a few years back...

what's the relative strengths of the 2020 vs 2021 draft?

i'd be going as early as i could for a pick swap tho - why not hawks or gc17 with pick 4 or 5?

i've read mention that the talls in this draft are relatively strong - thilthorp, grainger-barrass are likely to be available in that early clutch of players - so i'd be targeting an early pick

all comes down to whether gc17 need 'points' for whatever ridiculous academy selections they've got this year / next year i suppose

if we could do 5 for say hawks' second rounder, one of our later picks, and our future first?

Would have thought this isn't the year to do this there's virtually no exposed form so there will undoubtedly end up being value with the later picks. Usually you have to throw in a later pick due to the uncertainty of the future pick, so would think it makes more sense to save the pick till next year. 

Do a pick swap with the Bulldogs, they will lose their first round pick as someone will bid early on their kid from NGA and all they need is points to cover, might cost us future first round pick.  If we really want a player that will be around mid first round that is the pick we go after, dogs don't need it.  Same as Sydney's second round pick, they won't need it, I'm hoping we can trade Preuss to them with 47 to get this.

Everyone keeps talking compromised draft, there is however a lot of good players that aren't priority access picks, but you want as many picks inside top 30 that you can get.  The back half of the draft is a great unknown, I think you will see a lot of Rookie elevations and clubs taking minimal rather than drafting someone new.

I can't understand North and other clubs that are culling big numbers, to me they will need to pick up a lot of delisted free agents to top up list, you aren't going to pick 5-7 kids from this draft

This makes sense, we nearly always end up with the dud brother.

Just now, Hannibal Inc. said:

This makes sense, we nearly always end up with the dud brother.

He looks far from a dud, maybe watch footage of him.

7 minutes ago, NeveroddoreveN said:

He looks far from a dud, maybe watch footage of him.

It was a joke, kid.

9 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

can we swap two first rounders out in a row, i.e. 2020 and 2021? i think geelong - surprise, surprise - got special dispensation to do so a few years back...

what's the relative strengths of the 2020 vs 2021 draft?

i'd be going as early as i could for a pick swap tho - why not hawks or gc17 with pick 4 or 5?

i've read mention that the talls in this draft are relatively strong - thilthorp, grainger-barrass are likely to be available in that early clutch of players - so i'd be targeting an early pick

all comes down to whether gc17 need 'points' for whatever ridiculous academy selections they've got this year / next year i suppose

if we could do 5 for say hawks' second rounder, one of our later picks, and our future first?

Yeh, you can swap 2 1st rounders in a row. All you need is to use 2 1st round picks in a 4 year period.

 

That is definately another con, with this draft being a bit unknown, especially with the Victorian kids. Every recruiter I’ve listen to though has said the top 20 or 30 you can’t really go wrong as they follow these kids for a few years (especially from U16’s) before their draft year. I just really like the idea of getting the player now, rather than in 12 months time. Especially if there’s types that fit our needs like Macrae and Key Position players.

 

The problem with trading for the Bulldogs pick would be it will fall to about Pick 16 to 18, and that’s not what we should be trading for IMO. Also, if they trade out of this years 1st round for a 1st rounder next year, they’ll almost definately fall into points defecit next year and their 1st pick will fall several spots, so I’m not sure if they’ll be keen. The Dogs will most likely trade with a team that can give them points this year. 

Won't happen for a couple of reasons. Firstly, what's in it for North or Adelaide? They need to recruit and develop talent now, not in 12 months. We'd need to offer significant overs to even start a conversation with them. 

Secondly, barring exceptional circumstances (i.e. Pickett last year), there's no point going all out to draft on a needs basis (especially with no exposed form). Macrae might turn out to be a good player, and he might even turn out to be the type of player that we currently need. But he won't be that player for at least 3 years, and who knows what happens in that time? Baker, Rivers or even someone like Jackson might develop into the wingers we currently lack and we'll have bigger needs elsewhere. 

 

54 minutes ago, Hannibal Inc. said:

This makes sense, we nearly always end up with the dud brother.

Completely unfair and untrue. Sometimes, we get both dud brothers.

13 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

Won't happen for a couple of reasons. Firstly, what's in it for North or Adelaide? They need to recruit and develop talent now, not in 12 months. We'd need to offer significant overs to even start a conversation with them. 

Secondly, barring exceptional circumstances (i.e. Pickett last year), there's no point going all out to draft on a needs basis (especially with no exposed form). Macrae might turn out to be a good player, and he might even turn out to be the type of player that we currently need. But he won't be that player for at least 3 years, and who knows what happens in that time? Baker, Rivers or even someone like Jackson might develop into the wingers we currently lack and we'll have bigger needs elsewhere. 

 

Completely unfair and untrue. Sometimes, we get both dud brothers.

I personally can’t see North or Adelaide trade for it either, but they could gamble on us finishing bottom 4 or 6 which would mean they win the trade. They also will have a medium to long term strategy which might be to have their top draft picks spread out over a period of time, simular to how the Giants went about it in their 1st few years. They both have the 1st 2 picks in the draft as well as the picks we’d be chasing (8 and 9). 
 

If we on trade our Pick 23 (which will slide to about 28 to 30) with our future 1st, that might tempt them. I’d much rather fill our squad with top liners these days as we need elite skill which most of the time only comes in the top 10 or 15 picks. 

I'd do the future trade 1st trade. We'd probably need to throw in a second rounder too.

43 minutes ago, A F said:

I'd do the future trade 1st trade. We'd probably need to throw in a second rounder too.

I've seen him as high as 9th, but as low as early 20's on some draft boards, for the little that's worth. Defs not worth a first & second in such a speculative draft.

His footage actually reminds me a bit of Bailey Laurie, who is predicted to go (late?) second round. Granted Laurie is smaller.
 

 

Edited October 5, 20204 yr by adonski

Most reviews I've seen have him as an inside mid or half back.

In what position would we have him in?  Thanks in advance.

I still think Macrae is top 12-15. He should go before our current pick but obviously the trade period may throw up a lot of pick changes. 

I’d be offering preuss, pick 23 and 2021 frp 

for picks 9 and 28 

28 and a swap of later picks will be enough for brown.

Interesting that Knightmare had him ranked 3rd in the pre-season - now sliding to 9th due to a lack of growth spurt. If our reported interest is on the money are we thinking we can pick up a bargain? Will pick 9 be enough still - and then we'd want to have a solid secondary target if we were to get trumped on draft night. He looks a neat and composed player with a good leg on both sides but doesn't strike as having any special weapons. Don't know where he fits in terms of our immediate needs - and trading out next year's first for a shot this year seems like a risky tactic considering the circumstances. 

33 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Interesting that Knightmare had him ranked 3rd in the pre-season - now sliding to 9th due to a lack of growth spurt. If our reported interest is on the money are we thinking we can pick up a bargain? Will pick 9 be enough still - and then we'd want to have a solid secondary target if we were to get trumped on draft night. He looks a neat and composed player with a good leg on both sides but doesn't strike as having any special weapons. Don't know where he fits in terms of our immediate needs - and trading out next year's first for a shot this year seems like a risky tactic considering the circumstances. 

if the peppies get his bro from footscray i would expect that they'll take him earlier than 9

3 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

if the peppies get his bro from footscray i would expect that they'll take him earlier than 9

Yep. If Saad nets Essendon pick 7, it'll be involved in any trade for Dunkley. You'd assume Finlay Macrae to the dogs would be a good chance to happen at that pick if no good key position defenders are left by that stage. 

On 10/5/2020 at 11:07 PM, adonski said:

I've seen him as high as 9th, but as low as early 20's on some draft boards, for the little that's worth. Defs not worth a first & second in such a speculative draft.

His footage actually reminds me a bit of Bailey Laurie, who is predicted to go (late?) second round. Granted Laurie is smaller.
 

 

Lack of size and top end speed might be the concern but on a couple of highlight packages I want this kid so much. The baulks, sidesteps, vision, skills on both sides are all on display.

24 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Lack of size and top end speed might be the concern but on a couple of highlight packages I want this kid so much. The baulks, sidesteps, vision, skills on both sides are all on display.

bit small maybe? you'd expect that he might be one that slides

Likely to be a few rebuilding teams with multiple top end picks at the draft - which I guess means they can take a portfolio approach to spreading picks and draft strategy. Hard to keep up with all the permutations of the NGA's etc. - and I do think it's important to keep regularly bringing in talent - but I just feel other teams need a Macrae more than us right now.

Would prefer we sat out rather than give up next year's first, or on-traded any early picks for a ready-made, unless it was another Pickett-type to plug a specific hole. We still haven't got any real return from our swag of mid-likes in 2018. Also seems the year to back ourselves in for a second-round bargain, or cash out on draft (over-)night if we hold an early second-rounder.  

The counter to that is if we do rate Macrae around 3rd and think we can get him at 12ish after pick-sliding. Or if we need to spread our cap - which I still have no idea if is tight or not but has become accepted wisdom on here. Moneyball is the wrong term, but I do see us as viewing our draft and trading in a holistic way, just looking to get an edge in points or development overall. 

Random question. Finlay is aged 18 - listed as 184cm (assuming that is still accurate). Jackson is 191cm. I can't anecdotally think of any of my acquaintances where the younger brother is a few inches shorter than the elder. But I also haven't witnessed any serious post-18 growth spurts. Chances of Finlay still growing taller? Will turn that one over to the Demonland hive-mind. 

16 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Likely to be a few rebuilding teams with multiple top end picks at the draft - which I guess means they can take a portfolio approach to spreading picks and draft strategy. Hard to keep up with all the permutations of the NGA's etc. - and I do think it's important to keep regularly bringing in talent - but I just feel other teams need a Macrae more than us right now.

Would prefer we sat out rather than give up next year's first, or on-traded any early picks for a ready-made, unless it was another Pickett-type to plug a specific hole. We still haven't got any real return from our swag of mid-likes in 2018. Also seems the year to back ourselves in for a second-round bargain, or cash out on draft (over-)night if we hold an early second-rounder.  

The counter to that is if we do rate Macrae around 3rd and think we can get him at 12ish after pick-sliding. Or if we need to spread our cap - which I still have no idea if is tight or not but has become accepted wisdom on here. Moneyball is the wrong term, but I do see us as viewing our draft and trading in a holistic way, just looking to get an edge in points or development overall. 

Random question. Finlay is aged 18 - listed as 184cm (assuming that is still accurate). Jackson is 191cm. I can't anecdotally think of any of my acquaintances where the younger brother is a few inches shorter than the elder. But I also haven't witnessed any serious post-18 growth spurts. Chances of Finlay still growing taller? Will turn that one over to the Demonland hive-mind. 

This is why I think, if possible, we should try and bring him in. Keep spreading the profile of our elite mids and with Taylor behind our recruiting, I'd love to give him another first rounder to use on a mid.

Who knows what next year brings. I'd be trading next year's first rounder to get in this year if we think we can land the player we want.

Edited October 24, 20204 yr by A F

1 hour ago, adonski said:

Yep. If Saad nets Essendon pick 7, it'll be involved in any trade for Dunkley. You'd assume Finlay Macrae to the dogs would be a good chance to happen at that pick if no good key position defenders are left by that stage. 

As per Tom Browne, Dunkley will request a trade to Essendon. Makes things interesting. 

Some incredible handball highlights in that package.  Good kick on both sides and great agility. 184cm is not small.