1 minute ago, A F said:

I thought we were a chance, but I understand how difficult they are to win.

Yes they are just ask the hawks, tigers and the lions...

1 hour ago, demon3165 said:

Yes they are just ask the hawks, tigers and the lions...

How did the Tigers go in 2018? Did they go back to back? And the Lions is 20 years ago. Shall we ask the 1950s Demons too? And how about the Hawks of '09 or even better yet, Geelong of '07, '09, '11? A complete strawman...

16 minutes ago, A F said:

How did the Tigers go in 2018? Did they go back to back? And the Lions is 20 years ago. Shall we ask the 1950s Demons too? And how about the Hawks of '09 or even better yet, Geelong of '07, '09, '11? A complete strawman...

 

16 minutes ago, A F said:

How did the Tigers go in 2018? Did they go back to back? And the Lions is 20 years ago. Shall we ask the 1950s Demons too? And how about the Hawks of '09 or even better yet, Geelong of '07, '09, '11? A complete strawman...

Tigers did 19, 20 as for the demons if the pies did not go the punch we would have won 6 on the trot, Hawks 13,14,15.

Edited June 1, 20231 yr by demon3165

5 hours ago, demon3165 said:

And I bet you thought we would win back to back premierships, I posted that we would not after round 9 - 10 last year, and that was based on how we played, and I will say this if we keep playing this way and don't change we won't win this year, so you can stick with stats I will back my eyes and knowledge of the game, but you are entitled to your opinion, even if you live in a fictional world...... 

And what did you say in 2021? "They finally started doing what I've been saying all along", "Happy to be wrong" or something about rugby?

Just now, old55 said:

And what did you say in 2021? "They finally started doing what I've been saying all along", "Happy to be wrong" or something about rugby?

ahh selective quoting good on you, and what did I say about rugby? oh that's right Viney and what did I also say about him?

45 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

ahh selective quoting good on you, and what did I say about rugby? oh that's right Viney and what did I also say about him?

Can I politely request that you take the arguing outside of this thread? I understand it's not just you... can we keep it just for Game Plans and Tactics and legitimate discussion. Cheerio.

4 hours ago, demon3165 said:

ahh selective quoting good on you, and what did I say about rugby? oh that's right Viney and what did I also say about him?

Can't we all just get along?

7 hours ago, demon3165 said:

The pies ended up with the foot off the petal don't be fooled by the end result they did what they had to do, the dogs took several rounds to get going but they are not the same side full stop, and swans well look where they are on the ladder, the tigers well they are sitting 15th.

"Sure, the Brisbane game could have ended very differently if the lights didn't go out, but of course we won't know for sure".  you are kidding, they had their hands around our throats, again the game is about beating top sides and unless we clean up a dysfunctional forward line and that's my opinion by watching games we will make the eight, but then it will harder by the game in the finals.

Why is it that Collingwood gets the free pass but we don't?

Brisbane beat North by 75. Port beat them by 79. We beat them by 90. Collingwood "only" beat them by 35. If they and us were swapped you'd be arguing we were pathetic against a pathetic side. 

You didn't address my previous post in relation to the Dogs or Swans, at all. Saying the Dogs "took several rounds to get going" is the same thing as saying "they sucked in Rounds 1 and 2", which are the two losses they had before beating Brisbane in Round 3. What I argued was that we (and St Kilda in Round 2) deserved some credit for making them look bad. Do you agree with that? 

As to Sydney, again, since Round 4 when the McCartin brothers both got injured in-game, they have not had a full backline to choose from. In Round 3, when we played them, they were full strength other than Hickey. The side we played in Round 3 was far stronger than the side they've fielded since. Do you accept that might mean our win over them was stronger than a win over them in the last month? Will you revisit this if Sydney, who are only 11th and one game out of the 8, make the finals by year's end?

19 minutes ago, layzie said:

Can't we all just get along?

Well i'm not thee one who brought it up, i am going to defend myself as for getting along we all come from different ideas and views, but if we did then we would just classed as robots with no thoughts how boring.

19 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

Well i'm not thee one who brought it up, i am going to defend myself as for getting along we all come from different ideas and views, but if we did then we would just classed as robots with no thoughts how boring.

We do come from different ideas and views, that is true. Just don't want it to tear us apart.

6 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Why is it that Collingwood gets the free pass but we don't?

Brisbane beat North by 75. Port beat them by 79. We beat them by 90. Collingwood "only" beat them by 35. If they and us were swapped you'd be arguing we were pathetic against a pathetic side. 

You didn't address my previous post in relation to the Dogs or Swans, at all. Saying the Dogs "took several rounds to get going" is the same thing as saying "they sucked in Rounds 1 and 2", which are the two losses they had before beating Brisbane in Round 3. What I argued was that we (and St Kilda in Round 2) deserved some credit for making them look bad. Do you agree with that? 

As to Sydney, again, since Round 4 when the McCartin brothers both got injured in-game, they have not had a full backline to choose from. In Round 3, when we played them, they were full strength other than Hickey. The side we played in Round 3 was far stronger than the side they've fielded since. Do you accept that might mean our win over them was stronger than a win over them in the last month? Will you revisit this if Sydney, who are only 11th and one game out of the 8, make the finals by year's end?

My observations come from watching virtually watching all the games and form an opinion it's not hard to do, the dogs and swans are not the strong sides they were, remember the swans got done by 93 points against the cats round 6, the dogs they are etching out wins but they are gettable, yes we did play well not disputing that, so tell me what happened in 2022 then, to go from the top of the tree to out of the finals so easy, where have  we improved from 2021? Have we improved this year compared to 2021 tell me.

As for the pies, they have only dropped one game but they can be beaten the lions showed after half time with some cleaver tactics regarding the Daicos boys, if you watch their game plan it's very simple but effective, but you have to be disciplined.

Sydney is good in Sydney, but I still believe that if the pies played the cats in the grand final they would have won it, the swans played their grand final the week before, but we will never know that.

 

9 minutes ago, layzie said:

We do come from different ideas and views, that is true. Just don't want it to tear us apart.

Tear us apart? have we taken on Ports song in the forum now? and no it won't do that at the end of the day we are all Melbourne supporters with different views and that's ok debate is good.

2 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

Tear us apart? have we taken on Ports song in the forum now? and no it won't do that at the end of the day we are all Melbourne supporters with different views and that's ok debate is good.

That's right!

28 minutes ago, demon3165 said:

My observations come from watching virtually watching all the games and form an opinion it's not hard to do, the dogs and swans are not the strong sides they were, remember the swans got done by 93 points against the cats round 6, the dogs they are etching out wins but they are gettable, yes we did play well not disputing that, so tell me what happened in 2022 then, to go from the top of the tree to out of the finals so easy, where have  we improved from 2021? Have we improved this year compared to 2021 tell me.

As for the pies, they have only dropped one game but they can be beaten the lions showed after half time with some cleaver tactics regarding the Daicos boys, if you watch their game plan it's very simple but effective, but you have to be disciplined.

Sydney is good in Sydney, but I still believe that if the pies played the cats in the grand final they would have won it, the swans played their grand final the week before, but we will never know that.

These largely don't respond to what I was saying, but happy to talk further about them.

The Swans right now are a shadow of the side they were in 2022. That's largely due to their injury list. They went from 2-0 to 3-6, but as I've argued before, in only one of those games did they play with a full backline, and that was the first of those games, against us.

The Dogs went from 0-2 to 7-3, which included wins over Brisbane, Fremantle in Perth and just last week an 8-goal win over everyone's favourite side right now, Adelaide.

As for 2022, we went 16-6 and finished 2nd and led in all bar one of our losses by at least 20 points. We played well for much of the season but we peaked too early, we had injuries at the wrong time, our back half of our fixture was very difficult (both as to opponents and as to travel), and other sides continually brought close enough to their best against us, which we couldn't keep doing week after week. Despite all of that, we still led both Sydney and Brisbane by 20+ points in the finals. We just couldn't sustain our game for long enough.

I don't think we've improved on 2021 yet. I don't think we have to though. Our 2021 season was stellar. We can't expect us to be as dominant each year as we were in 2021. I'm concerned about a few aspects of our 2023 season so far - mostly around backline structure and D50 stoppage work - but as with last year I don't think we're as far off being a genuine flag contender as most of Demonland appears to. I don't want or need us to be the clear front-runner all year like we were for large parts of 2021 and 2022. 

Edited June 1, 20231 yr by titan_uranus

1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

These largely don't respond to what I was saying, but happy to talk further about them.

The Swans right now are a shadow of the side they were in 2022. That's largely due to their injury list. They went from 2-0 to 3-6, but as I've argued before, in only one of those games did they play with a full backline, and that was the first of those games, against us.

The Dogs went from 0-2 to 7-3, which included wins over Brisbane, Fremantle in Perth and just last week an 8-goal win over everyone's favourite side right now, Adelaide.

As for 2022, we went 16-6 and finished 2nd and led in all bar one of our losses by at least 20 points. We played well for much of the season but we peaked too early, we had injuries at the wrong time, our back half of our fixture was very difficult (both as to opponents and as to travel), and other sides continually brought close enough to their best against us, which we couldn't keep doing week after week. Despite all of that, we still led both Sydney and Brisbane by 20+ points. We just couldn't sustain our game for long enough.

I don't think we've improved on 2021 yet. I don't think we have to though. Our 2021 season was stellar. We can't expect us to be as dominant each year as we were in 2021. I'm concerned about a few aspects of our 2023 season so far - mostly around backline structure and D50 stoppage work - but as with last year I don't think we're as far off being a genuine flag contender as most of Demonland appears to. I don't want or need us to be the clear front-runner all year like we were for large parts of 2021 and 2022. 

If my memory serves me correct the finals games we were in front at half time? but after that watch how the opposition changed their setup and how they went about it, and we are doing the same thing now, I am not so concerned about the backline, as I am with the forward line if we had a pack mark type of player, things would be better placed but we don't, we cannot keep bombing it in, sides are setting up for it, few up but many front and back ready to switch the pill just as the lions, bombers and to an extent port.

It's not the wanting to be a front runner it's whether we have the game plan to win it, I cannot see it yet, maybe that changes between now and then and I hope so, but I was not wrong last year on what I saw and I am seeing similar things this year.

On 5/29/2023 at 7:53 PM, Watson11 said:

I agree. It worked great in 2017-2021 but things have moved on. Teams have adapted. I really dislike -1 or -2 at stoppages.

Collingwood in particular are sometimes pushing +2 to stoppages.  Watch what they are doing as you will find they don’t dump kick out of clearances and are using the extra numbers to get spread, space and kicking to advantage rendering the +1 behind the ball redundant. Their forwards are going pretty well despite being on paper a mediocre group and often outnumbered, but Collingwoods run from stoppage and turnover is creating chaos that helps the forwards.

I’d like to see us keep even numbers or +1 stoppages, even when Clarry returns.  If we want to win post clearance possessions then we should back Tracc, Clarry etc to win good clearance quality and kick to advantage. We should also back our defenders to intercept when we lose clearance.  Our defenders have the best 1 on 1 percentage in the league so we really don’t need a spare.  Better to keep the pressure upfield as high as possible.

And our f50 pressure needs to go back to 2021 levels. Remember when we would make sure there were no easy kicks in our f50 and Kossie was a menace.  We have just given up on that in the last year.

Its not too much to ask is it?

 

If i can add to these and discuss a little.....

they don’t dump kick out of clearances and are using the extra numbers to get spread, space and kicking to advantage rendering the +1 behind the ball redundant

Could be wrong but i'd be surprised if they never dump kick.  No doubt probably a last resort though and very good at spreading & chaining as you have mentioned. 

The extra number is quite often Nick Daicos (not as a defender but coming out of the middle or HF)  who kicks in a fair chunk of the time (around 40% ish) after a behind and then runs full tilt to get to the contests / stoppages as the extra.

Kicking to advantage rendering the +1 behind the ball redundant

Hard to execute but much room for improvement required.  Certainly a Bob the Builder opportunity here but who/how?

If we want to win post clearance possessions then we should back Tracc, Clarry etc to win good clearance quality and kick to advantage

Clarry an extractor and also a clearance specialist when he drives out of stoppage.  He tends to offer both aspects during a match.  Sometimes his clearance work drops off when he loses the drive out of stoppage at times.  Other times it's working just fine and he goes a little off with the short dinky gives bringing more heat and turnovers.  When he's in ripping form he does both very well.

Tracc bringing clearance the bulk of time and relies on others to get on the end of things.  But yes he's also a top liner in this regard of course.

However, the kick to advantage?  Unfortunately that's a bit of a rarity for our two champs.  Tracc doesn't lower his vision often enough and tends to just run full tilt towards 50 and blaze away.  Much of the time to no one in particular and sometimes burning potential forwards / rucks on the odd occasions they present.

Clarry is not dissimilar imv but probably doesn't get as many opportunities on the burst a la Tracc as he's often doing the extracting in the clinches.  All good.

Add to this a very incohesive forward line at the moment imv.  Most just tend to run away from the incoming ball carrier.  Or alternatively we might have Fritsch, often being joined by another TF for some reason, leading to the pocket.

The other common entry is a player looking to kick inside 50 from a mark or free / OOTF.  In this instance we usually just kick it straight ahead in to a pack of 2 or 3 talls (for example... Macca, Max & Grundy, Grundy & Roohey or other combo) who often run to the same spot and all go up for the mark together.  Sometimes it works but most of the time it spills for a stoppage or turnover.  Occasionally mopped up for a rushed shot at goal.

The point you make is a good one re Tracc & Clarry from a clearance POV.  The problem lies with their ability to kick to advantage of a forward and the inability of the forward set up (as it presently stands till now) to get its act together and also have a number of options leading to dangerous parts of the ground vs the usual (of late) leading close to the boundary.

We also lack TFs who have the ability to time their leads in order to present up the guts or out to the fat side.  At this stage i would argue Fritsch is probably the only regular but he mostly leads to the boundary.  All well & good but the chance of converting from there obviously isn't that great.

Our defenders have the best 1 on 1 percentage in the league so we really don’t need a spare.  Better to keep the pressure upfield as high as possible

Feel you have nailed this in terms of matching the oppo's extra at stoppages or even going one up ourselves vs having a spare.  Freo winning a few extra stoppage clearances as a direct result of their extra on Sat and getting it quickly forward.

Our defence is also not helped by some slack team defence at times.  A classic examples of this with 11.30 to go in the first quarter on Sat.   Check out where Banfield starts and ends up after his 50 meter penalty.  He just waltzed around.  No one took the 50 meter mark and no one bothered to pick him up as he drifted forward.  Taking an easy chest mark from a kick tight on the boundary and going back to slot their first.  No way you're making a PF bringing these habits.

our f50 pressure needs to go back to 2021 levels. Remember when we would make sure there were no easy kicks in our f50 and Kossie was a menace.

It certainly needs to but i would argue, most likely it's as a collective.

Some are bringing the heat (mostly Kozzy & JVR) and others are probably trying but not necessarily capable (till now...not saying players can't improve...of course they can).

Macca & BB so far are both on 0.67 inside 50 tackles per match vs 2021 flag year 1.20 and 1.25 respectively.  That's a drop off of 50%.  BB i can forgive a tad given he's the leading goal scorer on averages (3 per game) vs Macca averaging only about 1/3rd of that so far.  Talls are of course not expected to bring as much heat on the opps inside 50 vs medium / smalls but it's the drop away that's the concern here.

I would argue Kozzy is the least of our worries here as his tackle average inside 50 so far (2.1) is higher than 2022 (1.48) and 2021 flag year (1.64)

Our top 5 tacklers inside 50 in the order of highest down (averages) for players having played more than one match were/are...

2021 >  ANB, Kozzy, Viney, McDonald & Ben Brown for a combined average of 1.52 per player

2022 >  Kozzy, Harmes, Bedford, Spargo & Clarry ...combined average 1.14

2023 >  Kozzy, JVR, Chandler, Spargo & Clarry ...combined average 1.13

In summary we are a fair way off in a few aspects of our game style and method / execution of late.  No doubt there's a few matches left to improve here but time is quickly running out both in a 'training / drill' aspect/opportunity and also in terms of achieving better form / cohesion in a player/ overall team aspect.

It's also about method, style, effort and buy-in from the entire group from here.  At this stage there's a bit too much floundering and hit & miss going on.

Speaking of Method ....what method/system are we attempting?  I seriously can't tell and i don't thing many of the players are confident here either.

Achieving results via talent & occasional stepping on the gas in many cases vs nailing things down into a well oiled / well executed ruthless machine that gives 100% G&T over four quarters might give you a chance at the ultimate prize.

I also get the impression from some that a little effort now and then should be enough and that eventually everyone will just flick a switch and it will all come together just like it did in 2021 (not big time but it just flickers into view on occasions!).

Unfortunately at this level, toying with form and how often or long you bring max effort / desperation can occasionally produce some unexpected outcomes where even ordinary opposition can upset the apple cart against a superior team (on paper) that's too far from its best.

Edited June 1, 20231 yr by Demon Dynasty

We dump kick a lot in defensive 50 when we have a little more time than we think lately. Need to take that split second and a breath. 

Okley dokley. I have some hot takes on elements of our game plan and our plan/program this season. A hypothesis, if you will. 

I have been trying to work out how best to articulate my thoughts in a digestible way. My idea was to break it into elements/topics, and post about each element separately, with this post as context to help clarify what underpins my conclusions.

I’m not sure this methodology achieves that aim, and as is my wont is too long, but there you go.

The elements/topics I want to cover are:

• How I see the arc of the season 
• The dees 2023 game plan 
• The game plan of the other contenders
• The fitness program
• Specific elements of the game plan – eg stoppages, clearances, transition, forward entry etc
• Issues – eg ground ball inside 50, medium defender, tall forwards

I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. 

I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. 

My hypothesis is informed by:

• comments from Goody, the players and coaches
• comments from other clubs coaches, in particular Hardwick, Scott brothers and Mitchell
• some really terrific content and analysis by many Demonland posters
• comments by George and Andy on the podcast
• various bits of publically available data 
• my analysis of the last few seasons 
• my sense of where football is at the moment tactically etc
• my own musings
• the vibe

And of course another input is the opinions, ideas and thoughts of footy media people, in particular (in order of how much stock I put in them):

• Brendan Sanderson, 
• Daniel Hoyne from champion data
• Jobe Watson (who is god awful commentator because he struggles to enunciate, but I actually find often makes some really insightful comments)
• Brad Johnson
• Montagna 
• Gerard Healy 
• Buckley (who frustrates me a bit because he seems to mix genuine insight with some whacko stuff)
• David King (see comment about Buckley)

My hypothesis is based on, and informed by, a number of assumptions and personal beliefs, including:

• Fitness has always been an important factor in the VFL/AFL, but is now one of the 3 most significant determinants of the likelihood of winning a flag (the other two being quality of the list - and where it is at from a demographic perspective and luck with injury. I have coaching next. And it goes without saying clubs need to be well governed etc)
• The model Damien Hardwick introduced at the tigers that proved so successful has changed footy and is now the template and starting point for all teams (though I think Mitchell is trying something genuinely new) 
• Goodwin has based his game plan on that core elements of the tiger template – defence first, pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, contested ball, territory, run in waves, overlap scoring from turnover, intercept marking down back, rebound and transition from the back, heavy emphasis on role, heavy emphasis on system and forward half footy
• The Pies, given the fact they haven’t won a flag, have had an outside influence in terms of influencing other  team’s game plan – in particular their speed of ball movement from the back half and their preparedness to change lanes and take risks with their kicks 
• But the Pies model is actually still undefined by the Tigers template and isn’t nearly as different and/or new as the footy media would have people believe
• That said, the Pies game plan has absolutely led to us  making some pretty big changes to our game plan and method
• Analytics is playing a huge role in footy now – and the pies method is very much informed by analytics (for example I suspect analytics show that with the right mitigating strategies higher risk kicks result in a net higher score ie taking into account scores from turnovers)
• Coaches are on different points on the risk – reward, offence versus defence scales  
• It is incredibly difficult to win a flag – so much has to go right, and so few things need to go wrong to make a flag impossible 
• Clubs look to the previous year’s flag winner and incorporate elements of what contribute to their success 
• Each individual home and away game is not litmus test on the dees chances of winning a flag and way, way too much emphasis is put on the outcomes of individual matches 
• It is possible to think the dees will win the flag this year AND that in all probability they won’t

 

Edited June 2, 20231 yr by binman

nice work @binman

i think the big intangible here is 'confidence' - it's not a measurable, really, but goes a long way to informing success or otherwise going forward

 

25 minutes ago, binman said:

I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. 

I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. 

My hypothesis is informed by:

My hypothesis is based on, and informed by

@binman I read you entire post twice but didn’t actually find where you said what your hypothesis actually is. Or is that episode 2?

28 minutes ago, binman said:

Okley dokley. I have some hot takes on elements of our game plan and our plan/program this season. A hypothesis, if you will. 

I have been trying to work out how best to articulate my thoughts in a digestible way. My idea was to break it into elements/topics, and post about each element separately, with this post as context to help clarify what underpins my conclusions.

I’m not sure this methodology achieves that aim, and as is my wont is too long, but there you go.

The elements/topics I want to cover are:

• How I see the arc of the season 
• The dees 2023 game plan 
• The game plan of the other contenders
• The fitness program
• Specific elements of the game plan – eg stoppages, clearances, transition, forward entry etc
• Issues – eg ground ball inside 50, medium defender, tall forwards

I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. 

I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. 

My hypothesis is informed by:

• comments from Goody, the players and coaches
• comments from other clubs coaches, in particular Hardwick, Scott brothers and Mitchell
• some really terrific content and analysis by many Demonland posters
• comments by George and Andy on the podcast
• various bits of publically available data 
• my analysis of the last few seasons 
• my sense of where football is at the moment tactically etc
• my own musings
• the vibe

And of course another input is the opinions, ideas and thoughts of footy media people, in particular (in order of how much stock I put in them):

• Brendan Sanderson, 
• Daniel Hoyne from champion data
• Jobe Watson (who is god awful commentator because he struggles to enunciate, but I actually find often makes some really insightful comments)
• Brad Johnson
• Montagna 
• Gerard Healy 
• Buckley (who frustrates me a bit because he seems to mix genuine insight with some whacko stuff)
• David King (see comment about Buckley)

My hypothesis is based on, and informed by, a number of assumptions and personal beliefs, including:

• Fitness has always been an important factor in the VFL/AFL, but is now one of the 3 most significant determinants of the likelihood of winning a flag (the other two being quality of the list - and where it is at from a demographic perspective and luck with injury. I have coaching next. And it goes without saying clubs need to be well governed etc)
• The model Damien Hardwick introduced at the tigers that proved so successful has changed footy and is now the template and starting point for all teams (though I think Mitchell is trying something genuinely new) 
• Goodwin has based his game plan on that core elements of the tiger template – defence first, pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, contested ball, territory, run in waves, overlap scoring from turnover, intercept marking down back, rebound and transition from the back, heavy emphasis on role, heavy emphasis on system and forward half footy
• The Pies, given the fact they haven’t won a flag, have had an outside influence in terms of influencing other  team’s game plan – in particular their speed of ball movement from the back half and their preparedness to change lanes and take risks with their kicks 
• But the Pies model is actually still undefined by the Tigers template and isn’t nearly as different and/or new as the footy media would have people believe
• That said, the Pies game plan has absolutely led to us  making some pretty big changes to our game plan and method
• Analytics is playing a huge role in footy now – and the pies method is very much informed by analytics (for example I suspect analytics show that with the right mitigating strategies higher risk kicks result in a net higher score ie taking into account scores from turnovers)
• Coaches are on different points on the risk – reward, offence versus defence scales  
• It is incredibly difficult to win a flag – so much has to go right, and so few things need to go wrong to make a flag impossible 
• Clubs look to the previous year’s flag winner and incorporate elements of what contribute to their success 
• Each individual home and away game is not litmus test on the dees chances of winning a flag and way, way too much emphasis is put on the outcomes of individual matches 
• It is possible to think the dees will win the flag this year AND that in all probability they won’t

 

You left out Leo Tolstoy as an influence.

19 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

 

@binman I read you entire post twice but didn’t actually find where you said what your hypothesis actually is. Or is that episode 2?

Episode 2. And three. And four. And five. And six

Edited June 2, 20231 yr by binman

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-01/afl-what-makes-a-good-kick-in-2023/102420562

11 minutes ago, binman said:

Okley dokley. I have some hot takes on elements of our game plan and our plan/program this season. A hypothesis, if you will. 

I have been trying to work out how best to articulate my thoughts in a digestible way. My idea was to break it into elements/topics, and post about each element separately, with this post as context to help clarify what underpins my conclusions.

I’m not sure this methodology achieves that aim, and as is my wont is too long, but there you go.

The elements/topics I want to cover are:

• How I see the arc of the season 
• The dees 2023 game plan 
• The game plan of the other contenders
• The fitness program
• Specific elements of the game plan – eg stoppages, clearances, transition, forward entry etc
• Issues – eg ground ball inside 50, medium defender, tall forwards

I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. 

I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. 

My hypothesis is informed by:

• comments from Goody, the players and coaches
• comments from other clubs coaches, in particular Hardwick, Scott brothers and Mitchell
• some really terrific content and analysis by many Demonland posters
• comments by George and Andy on the podcast
• various bits of publically available data 
• my analysis of the last few seasons 
• my sense of where football is at the moment tactically etc
• my own musings
• the vibe

And of course another input is the opinions, ideas and thoughts of footy media people, in particular (in order of how much stock I put in them):

• Brendan Sanderson, 
• Daniel Hoyne from champion data
• Jobe Watson (who is god awful commentator because he struggles to enunciate, but I actually find often makes some really insightful comments)
• Brad Johnson
• Montagna 
• Gerard Healy 
• Buckley (who frustrates me a bit because he seems to mix genuine insight with some whacko stuff)
• David King (see comment about Buckley)

My hypothesis is based on, and informed by, a number of assumptions and personal beliefs, including:

• Fitness has always been an important factor in the VFL/AFL, but is now one of the 3 most significant determinants of the likelihood of winning a flag (the other two being quality of the list - and where it is at from a demographic perspective and luck with injury. I have coaching next. And it goes without saying clubs need to be well governed etc)
• The model Damien Hardwick introduced at the tigers that proved so successful has changed footy and is now the template and starting point for all teams (though I think Mitchell is trying something genuinely new) 
• Goodwin has based his game plan on that core elements of the tiger template – defence first, pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, contested ball, territory, run in waves, overlap scoring from turnover, intercept marking down back, rebound and transition from the back, heavy emphasis on role, heavy emphasis on system and forward half footy
• The Pies, given the fact they haven’t won a flag, have had an outside influence in terms of influencing other  team’s game plan – in particular their speed of ball movement from the back half and their preparedness to change lanes and take risks with their kicks 
• But the Pies model is actually still undefined by the Tigers template and isn’t nearly as different and/or new as the footy media would have people believe
• That said, the Pies game plan has absolutely led to us  making some pretty big changes to our game plan and method
• Analytics is playing a huge role in footy now – and the pies method is very much informed by analytics (for example I suspect analytics show that with the right mitigating strategies higher risk kicks result in a net higher score ie taking into account scores from turnovers)
• Coaches are on different points on the risk – reward, offence versus defence scales  
• It is incredibly difficult to win a flag – so much has to go right, and so few things need to go wrong to make a flag impossible 
• Clubs look to the previous year’s flag winner and incorporate elements of what contribute to their success 
• Each individual home and away game is not litmus test on the dees chances of winning a flag and way, way too much emphasis is put on the outcomes of individual matches 
• It is possible to think the dees will win the flag this year AND that in all probability they won’t

 

A very good all round analysis. The game is changing rapidly and even the numbers are having trouble keeping up.

That analysis kinda confirms what we’ve known for a while about the quality of our ball use.