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AFL draft 2020 - Doomsday

Deespicable
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

Ok, here's a COVID-19 thought for us all.

Let's say the AFL eventually has to bow to govt/medico pressure and cancels the season after just one or two ghost rounds - fanciful I know, but some experts say the virus may impact for six months.

What does that mean for us when it comes to the 2020 draft day in November. If there are no games (or just a couple), how do you determine draft order. Surely you have to revert back to the order from 2019 and that means we have picks 2 and 20 - but no we haven't, we traded them away to North and Fremantle on the assumption that we would rise back up the ladder. We do have Hawthorn's second rounder, but that based off last year's position is 28. So ultimately if there's no games, we will be done over more than many other teams.

The only good thing is that  if there's no AFL, there's also no great likelihood of junior footy being played, so just about every selection by clubs will be based on a kid's form in 2019. And we all know that around 16-18, a lot of kids do some major late developing (eg: Bont, Oliver), so the whole draft will be a much bigger lottery than previous years. Which leads us back to Doh!

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    NBA style lottery, bottom 10 on the ladder, then a separate lottery for 11-18 for the top 8

     

     

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    And there's no certainty we would rise this year if the season goes ahead, so 2 and 20 might still apply. 

    What we do know is that the 2020 draft is very heavily compromised with academy and f/s selections in the top 20. That may have been part of the thinking about swapping 2020 first rounder for Kozzie Picket selection. Our first 2020 pick might well have been pushed back by bids and matching bids. In that scenario, later picks get pushed up the order due to point requirements, which works well for our later 2020 picks.

    As you say, without a TAC cup season it's kinda pin the tail on the donkey, to some extent

    Edited by Moonshadow

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    Interesting thoughts, may very well happen, only logical way of deciding which talent goes on what lists.

    Plenty of talk over relegation and places in the Champions League up for debate in European Football.

     

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    It would also seem unfortunate for some current players if they were to be delisted at the end of this year to make way for new draftees, when they haven’t even had a chance to play or prove themselves this season, if it’s reduced/cancelled. 

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    They might just not allow the young kids into the draft, make it an under 20 comp for them next year and any draft selections have to come from older guys from the state leagues. Realistically you can't move guys off a list if they haven't played either, so this would be more of a top up system for those who retire or are long term injuries. 

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    What a mess - similar to above was my first thought also. Basically just a supplemental top up system where clubs can freely sign replacements for retirees etc. Draft pool has to wait a year or enter the state leagues. Throw in even more academy and father-son prospects in 2021 and it's going to be chaos. Have no idea what would happen with trading this year. Free agency will a hot ticket. 

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    Given the under 18 comp would also be cancelled take the opportunity to move the draft age back to 19. 

    Have a mini draft for any retirees but push all future draft trades from 2019 back to the 2021 draft

    Edited by ArtificialWisdom

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    2 hours ago, Deespicable said:

    Ok, here's a COVID-19 thought for us all.

    Let's say the AFL eventually has to bow to govt/medico pressure and cancels the season after just one or two ghost rounds - fanciful I know, but some experts say the virus may impact for six months.

    What does that mean for us when it comes to the 2020 draft day in November. If there are no games (or just a couple), how do you determine draft order. Surely you have to revert back to the order from 2019 and that means we have picks 2 and 20 - but no we haven't, we traded them away to North and Fremantle on the assumption that we would rise back up the ladder. We do have Hawthorn's second rounder, but that based off last year's position is 28. So ultimately if there's no games, we will be done over more than many other teams.

    The only good thing is that  if there's no AFL, there's also no great likelihood of junior footy being played, so just about every selection by clubs will be based on a kid's form in 2019. And we all know that around 16-18, a lot of kids do some major late developing (eg: Bont, Oliver), so the whole draft will be a much bigger lottery than previous years. Which leads us back to Doh!

    I think the club would have already had a strong idea from last year,  of players of interest.  We just won't see them up-dated for 2020.  We would have already considered these options of what we might miss, in the first couple of rounds of the 2020 national draft.

     

    Do we have some academy players on our books.?

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    The whole world is taking massive hits everywhere and will continue to do so. Don't think draft order is high on the priorities at present. If we do have to give up pick 2 to North then so be it. Nobody will hold that against Mahoney or the club. Maybe poita. 

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    If there are not enough games played to have a meaningful ladder for 2020, one option might be to use the 2019 ladder positions. Another, though, might be to take the last 5 years to smooth out the impact of a single year's results. I don't believe there is a perfect solution, whichever way it goes.

    And if the AFL asks clubs to draft now to boost lists to 50 players, maybe there won't be an end of year draft at all as clubs will likely have to shed about 6 players each before contemplating any new additions.

    image.png.e327d20838c4a1460708236073c308c5.png

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    1 hour ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

    nab league is likely to be cancelled

    really, this gives the afl the perfect opportunity to change the minimum draft age to 19, as some have advocated for some time

    What is the nab League? Is that the name of the under-18s competition? 

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