Defining Success in 2020 - Is Just Making Finals Enough?

[58er 6,565]

57 minutes ago, MyFavouriteMartian said:

Yep

It's time for both Fritta and Weide to pull their weight.   And play more robustly.

Fritsch is not a robust player Flower also not but didn't make any difference to him.

Bayley needs to play his role Yes  But it's up to other forwards Tom Mac Weide Milkshake  Trac plus Kossy and others to be more physical and allow his considerable skills to shine and kick 40/50 goals this Season.

[old dee 23,872]

4 minutes ago, 58er said:

Fritsch is not a robust player Flower also not but didn't make any difference to him.

Bayley needs to play his role Yes  But it's up to other forwards Tom Mac Weide Milkshake  Trac plus Kossy and others to be more physical and allow his considerable skills to shine and kick 40/50 goals this Season.

40 - 50!

I would have thought 25 might be more realistic total 58r.

[58er 6,565]

2 minutes ago, old dee said:

40 - 50!

I would have thought 25 might be more realistic total 58r.

OD

He nearly hit That  total (21) from 7/ 8 games forward Why wouldn't he be at least as successful over a full season esp with an improving forward line and team?

 

[old dee 23,872]

25 minutes ago, 58er said:

OD

He nearly hit That  total (21) from 7/ 8 games forward Why wouldn't he be at least as successful over a full season esp with an improving forward line and team?

 

One reason. He probably caught a few defences out in 2019. They will be right on to him this year.

[JakovichScissorKick 771]

A flag is the only acceptable result.   

Edited January 12, 2020 by JakovichScissorKick

[Melb-A-Toast 257]

I expect out of 88 quarters Melbourne will win 55. It is just a matter of when these occur and by how much

[rjay 25,093]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

If those making projections had to pay a price if they got it wrong,  I reckon you'd see any number of people taking a far more conservative approach on how we'll fare

But there is never any price paid so grandiose predictions abound.  Most footy fans are the same.  Hope & faith rules ... that's how we're wired. 

After last year,  I reckon deep down many will 'accept' 11 wins albeit begrudgingly contrary to their own ambition for the club.  11 wins can be viewed as a stepping stone too.

There's a difference between how I see us going and what I see as a successful year.

I have no idea how we will go this year but I am optimistic...

However if we aren't contender then I think our season is a fail and by the clubs metrics if we go by what Pert and Bartlett tell us it should be seen as a fail.

It will be the 7th season since Roos came on board and that's long enough.

The rebuild will be close to a fail if we don't see results soon.

 

[DeeSpencer 26,082]

25 minutes ago, rjay said:

There's a difference between how I see us going and what I see as a successful year.

I have no idea how we will go this year but I am optimistic...

However if we aren't contender then I think our season is a fail and by the clubs metrics if we go by what Pert and Bartlett tell us it should be seen as a fail.

It will be the 7th season since Roos came on board and that's long enough.

The rebuild will be close to a fail if we don't see results soon.

 

Not sure attributing a time frame to post Roos is all that meaningful. The guy doesn't believe in rebuilds. He came in to build us up and that was achieved. I actually think last year was a lot about adapting to losing a lot of players that Roos bought in to help achieve improvement from basket case to legitimate side. In conjunction with injuries we really struggled to cover the decline or loss of guys who steadied us - Vince, Tyson, Jones, Lewis (post Roos but similar philosophy), Garlett, Hibberd even Jetta and someone like Bugg.

Obviously there was a rebuild aspect as well around the time Roos was here (pre/post/during). The core group of top draft picks in Viney, Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver, Weid and the Lever trade are meant to be the backbone of our side for a decade and that was looking likely in 2018. Gawn, McDonald, Jetta and maybe Harmes the other guys who were even part of the Roos era and still important today. Things will be looking bad if the majority of those guys aren't doing what we expect this upcoming season so I guess that's the legacy of the Roos rebuild. Along with hopefully more professionalism, grit and unity etc.

But a lot of the teams success this year will be based on players we've added post Roos. Some trade ins to continue the build but also draft picks in the years since. 

 

[rjay 25,093]

15 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Not sure attributing a time frame to post Roos is all that meaningful. The guy doesn't believe in rebuilds. He came in to build us up and that was achieved. I actually think last year was a lot about adapting to losing a lot of players that Roos bought in to help achieve improvement from basket case to legitimate side. In conjunction with injuries we really struggled to cover the decline or loss of guys who steadied us - Vince, Tyson, Jones, Lewis (post Roos but similar philosophy), Garlett, Hibberd even Jetta and someone like Bugg.

Obviously there was a rebuild aspect as well around the time Roos was here (pre/post/during). The core group of top draft picks in Viney, Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver, Weid and the Lever trade are meant to be the backbone of our side for a decade and that was looking likely in 2018. Gawn, McDonald, Jetta and maybe Harmes the other guys who were even part of the Roos era and still important today. Things will be looking bad if the majority of those guys aren't doing what we expect this upcoming season so I guess that's the legacy of the Roos rebuild. Along with hopefully more professionalism, grit and unity etc.

But a lot of the teams success this year will be based on players we've added post Roos. Some trade ins to continue the build but also draft picks in the years since. 

 

You're playing with words here mate...

We started a rebuild at the end of 2013 when we brought in Roos...part of the process was bringing in Goodwin.

That means by the end of 2020 we will have had 7 years to bring in players, trade out players, basically build a club/team that will seriously contest for the flag.

I think that is probably long enough.

Just making up the numbers will not be a successful season.

[Macca 17,034]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

There's a difference between how I see us going and what I see as a successful year.

I have no idea how we will go this year but I am optimistic...

However if we aren't contender then I think our season is a fail and by the clubs metrics if we go by what Pert and Bartlett tell us it should be seen as a fail.

It will be the 7th season since Roos came on board and that's long enough.

The rebuild will be close to a fail if we don't see results soon.

Rebuilding is a constant thing rjay.

I'd argue that the hardest time to rebuild is when success happens but there's never a time to sit back.  Otherwise failure kicks in.

Goodwin (or any coach for that matter) would like 25 - 28 AFL standard players on his list ... say no worse than B.

And we are a ways off that level.  A long way off in fact.  Dynasty's fascinate me but those dynasty clubs in all those sports have one thing in common ... loads of actual talent.  Ongoing.

But achieve that and you're right in the hunt and if the fine-tuning happens as a constant,  you're in the hunt for a long period of time.

So I've learnt to be patient with our club ... you have to be.  But we're building a better list where as there has been many times when I felt the club sat back way too much. 

Even with all the interrupted pre seasons and off-season surgeries last year we still should have been able to eke out 8 - 10 wins.  We dropped off too far which is concerning.

So I'm hoping that we can at least break even for 2020 and to me that will be a real stepping stone.

If I gave you 11 wins right now would you be tempted to take it if there was real substance in the 11 wins and as an add-on,  real hope for the future?

Because that's what I'm hoping 11 wins delivers.  And 11 could be 10 or 12 too.  It's almost impossible to predict these sorts of things

Like your good self,  I will have a close eye on our game style and whether the application,  energy and a never give up attitude combined with real enthusiasm & motivation is present from week to week. 

What if we do all that and just miss the finals?  My thinking is that we are 2 - 4 good players short from going 'close' to contending.  And about 6 - 8 good players short of being a genuine contender. 

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,765]

On 1/11/2020 at 9:10 PM, jnrmac said:

A home prelim represents success to me.

8 clubs make finals. It's frankly pathetic to consider making finals a success.

Isn't that a little arrogant though? There's 18 elite level organisations vying to be the best and making the finals is pathetic?

I understand it's not the ultimate success but I certainly won't be microwaving my membership if we play hard and make the 8.

I think the answer to this question is a little more nuanced than a ladder position.

I'd like to see consistency - competitive against the best, clean up the bottom couple of teams and see real growth from some of our players and in our game style. I'm comfortable with our boys losing games if we're playing well.

That said, if we keep a fit list for the duration of the season, finals should be an expectation.

[rjay 25,093]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

Rebuilding is a constant thing rjay.

It is 'Macca' but in our case we could define ground zero as when Roos took us on.

I know we came from a long way back but we need to show something this year.

19 minutes ago, Macca said:

What if we do all that and just miss the finals?  My thinking is that we are 2 - 4 good players short from going 'close' to contending.  And about 6 - 8 good players short of being a genuine contender. 

There's a lot of if's & but's on the list for mine at the moment 'Macca', this year will tell a tale.

20 minutes ago, Macca said:

If I gave you 11 wins right now would you be tempted to take it if there was real substance in the 11 wins and as an add-on,  real hope for the future?

I wouldn't take it 'Macca'...if there's real substance then the results will show better than 11.

[DeeSpencer 26,082]

16 minutes ago, rjay said:

You're playing with words here mate...

We started a rebuild at the end of 2013 when we brought in Roos...part of the process was bringing in Goodwin.

That means by the end of 2020 we will have had 7 years to bring in players, trade out players, basically build a club/team that will seriously contest for the flag.

I think that is probably long enough.

Just making up the numbers will not be a successful season.

2018 caps the Roos plan as far as I'm concerned. We went from worst team since Fitzroy bad to a prelim final appearance. Our young players looked good. We had useful role players and we had experience in the side.

Between 2013 and 2020 we've had important players in Vince, Lewis, Cross, Tyson, Bugg, Garlett and many others come and go. Howe emerge and leave. Watts finally fulfil his talent then regress and be traded. Hogan sent away. The utter failure of Toumpas. Plus the decline of Jones and possibly Hibberd. To build a full contending side whilst also replacing those guys would've been a monumental task. Most teams going for the full rebuild strip back to nothing very early so they can spend years building without losing older guys out the other side.

It was the 3rd go around of rebuilding since 2007 and needed immediate action to remedy the list. Dreams of a Clarkson 2005-2008,  Geelong under Bomber or a GWS style leap were long odds to happen, the baseline talent on the list and number of high and mid round drafts picks just weren't enough. And yes the coaching change was part of the rebuild but that alone shows it was a highly unusual situation.

Just my opinion but as long as the culture and overall smarts of the club has changed and as long as our high draft picks like Oliver, Petracca, Salem, Lever kick on then combined with 2018 that's enough from the rebuild.

I see your point of view that 2013-2020 should be one rebuild that ends in contention and therefore success. Just isn't how I see it.

[rjay 25,093]

3 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

2018 caps the Roos plan as far as I'm concerned. We went from worst team since Fitzroy bad to a prelim final appearance. Our young players looked good. We had useful role players and we had experience in the side.

Between 2013 and 2020 we've had important players in Vince, Lewis, Cross, Tyson, Bugg, Garlett and many others come and go. Howe emerge and leave. Watts finally fulfil his talent then regress and be traded. Hogan sent away. The utter failure of Toumpas. Plus the decline of Jones and possibly Hibberd. To build a full contending side whilst also replacing those guys would've been a monumental task. Most teams going for the full rebuild strip back to nothing very early so they can spend years building without losing older guys out the other side.

It was the 3rd go around of rebuilding since 2007 and needed immediate action to remedy the list. Dreams of a Clarkson 2005-2008,  Geelong under Bomber or a GWS style leap were long odds to happen, the baseline talent on the list and number of high and mid round drafts picks just weren't enough. And yes the coaching change was part of the rebuild but that alone shows it was a highly unusual situation.

Just my opinion but as long as the culture and overall smarts of the club has changed and as long as our high draft picks like Oliver, Petracca, Salem, Lever kick on then combined with 2018 that's enough from the rebuild.

I see your point of view that 2013-2020 should be one rebuild that ends in contention and therefore success. Just isn't how I see it.

The rebuild started at the end of 2013...it was never linear as I've stated elsewhere.

You pick up, you lose, you win some, you lose some.

Players come in, players go but over that period you build or should build a stronger list.

..I just think 7 years is long enough to build a contender.

I'm not saying we will contend, just that we should be in that position now and I will see it as failure if we don't...

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,880]

12 minutes ago, Cheesy D. Pun said:

Isn't that a little arrogant though? There's 18 elite level organisations vying to be the best and making the finals is pathetic?

I understand it's not the ultimate success but I certainly won't be microwaving my membership if we play hard and make the 8.

I think the answer to this question is a little more nuanced than a ladder position.

I'd like to see consistency - competitive against the best, clean up the bottom couple of teams and see real growth from some of our players and in our game style. I'm comfortable with our boys losing games if we're playing well.

That said, if we keep a fit list for the duration of the season, finals should be an expectation.

The premier rarely comes from outside the top 4.  Dogs in 16 are about the only exception I can think of off the top of my head in the past 2 decades.  If your not finishing top 4, your not truely contending, just pretending.

In 2018 we were one win off finishing top 4, so I hardly think it's an unattainable goal with the list we have.

I really do think it's partly a mindset thing, but it's a barrier the MFC needs to break to win us that elusive premiership.

[Macca 17,034]

10 minutes ago, rjay said:

It is 'Macca' but in our case we could define ground zero as when Roos took us on.

I know we came from a long way back but we need to show something this year.

There's a lot of if's & but's on the list for mine at the moment 'Macca', this year will tell a tale.

I wouldn't take it 'Macca'...if there's real substance then the results will show better than 11.

We got 10 wins in 2016 but there wasn't a great deal of substance and then 12 wins in 2017 which turned out to be a stepping stone for 2018.

Of course,  we fell short against Collingwood in that last round in 2017 but the Pies were just starting to click (they made the GF in 2018) They were a better team in 2017 than their ladder position indicated. I remember saying so at the time too.

If one could list 13 or 14 of our players who can stay on the park and perform to a very good level 4 out of 5 weeks,  then I'd be a lot more buoyant and bullish.  But that isn't us,  not yet anyway. 

The best teams often have very few,  if any,  passengers.  Especially the dynasty clubs (in any sport)

And it can never be assumed that any club doesn't hit the odd hurdle whilst always trying to build a top list.  If we knew the answer on how to add 3 good players every season,  we'd be worth our weight in gold. 

In the last 15 years or so,  we've had any number of year's where we've only added 1 or 0 good players to the list.

Talent identification and how to get hold of that talent has been our greatest failure.  The draft has often been cruel to us and let's face it,  that reasoning is why the list has often been substandard.

And when we've swapped first rounders for proven talent (notably Lever & May) the bad luck has continued with chronic injuries. 

We could do with a dose of good fortune for a change.

As for what Bartlett and Pert might be saying ... Pres-Speak & CEO-Speak.  I don't place a lot of stock with that stuff.

It's best to just use your own eyes.

[JakovichScissorKick 771]

On 1/11/2020 at 9:10 PM, jnrmac said:

 

8 clubs make finals. It's frankly pathetic to consider making finals a success.

Nothing wrong with that..     8 out of 18 teams making it is a perfect number.

In the NBA 16 of the 30 teams make the playoffs... now that is pathetic.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,880]

Elaborating on that mindset thing - aim low, achieve low.  I do wounder if it's actually become culturally ingrained within the MFC, drives thinking and decision making and a becomes somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy?

Does on some level the club congratulate it's self mid season, when it looks like we are just in a good position to make finals and even subconsciously take the foot off the accelerator and stumble, where a club with a more recent history of success knows that just making finals is a non achievement, keeps pushing and sets it's self up with a ladder position to give it's self the best chance of real success at the pointy end of the season come finals?

[Macca 17,034]

4 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Elaborating on that mindset thing - aim low, achieve low.  I do wounder if it's actually become culturally ingrained within the MFC, drives thinking and decision making and a becomes somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy?

Does on some level the club congratulate it's self mid season, when it looks like we are just in a good position to make finals and even subconsciously take the foot off the accelerator and stumble, where a club with a more recent history of success knows that just making finals is a non achievement, keeps pushing and sets it's self up with a ladder position to give it's self the best chance of real success at the pointy end of the season come finals?

The club should be aiming to win every game

Us supporters are mere onlookers ... whatever we say doesn't matter much at all.  We may as well be just having these types of conversations in pubs.  Amounts to the same thing.

We supporters can aim high, low or anywhere in between but we influence very little. 

Our importance lies with our numbers and our money.  But take that away and the club would be losing it's greatest asset (us)  Without us there is no club.

For the most part,  as a member/supporter,  I often feel like I make zero difference.  e.g. If I'd picked Hawthorn as a youngster I would have witnessed 12 flags.  Sliding doors for a lot of us yeah RBG?

[nosoupforme 3,085]

If the list isn't prepaid for the season proper with injuries and  surgeries inevitably  you don't expect to be playing at your best. There are always reasons why a team is on the up or stagnating or struggling.  However we have our reasons and now we have the chance to turn it around and it has to be with the head down and bottom's up approach  so to speak.

With the new recruits and  the football department  in shipshape  our list looks to be in a healthy state and that said there is no reason to think that we cannot finish in the top 4 .  I don't expect any less with the list we built over the last five years

We have suffered enough. IMO l think the boys know that and they feel the same l am sure.  Top for no less.

[58er 6,565]

8 hours ago, old dee said:

One reason. He probably caught a few defences out in 2019. They will be right on to him this year.

Sorry OD I believe Fritta will star and be nearly a full A grader and opposition teams will have trouble minding our new and improved fitter forward line with some finishing skills.

[rjay 25,093]

11 hours ago, old dee said:

One reason. He probably caught a few defences out in 2019. They will be right on to him this year.

With all the opposition analysis that goes into games these days it would be unusual for any team to be caught out.

Fritsch can play & will be vital to any improvement in our forward line this year & beyond.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,880]

9 hours ago, Macca said:

The club should be aiming to win every game

Us supporters are mere onlookers ... whatever we say doesn't matter much at all.  We may as well be just having these types of conversations in pubs.  Amounts to the same thing.

We supporters can aim high, low or anywhere in between but we influence very little. 

Our importance lies with our numbers and our money.  But take that away and the club would be losing it's greatest asset (us)  Without us there is no club.

For the most part,  as a member/supporter,  I often feel like I make zero difference.  e.g. If I'd picked Hawthorn as a youngster I would have witnessed 12 flags.  Sliding doors for a lot of us yeah RBG?

Agree with much of what you are saying Macca.

But at the same time, I do wounder if the expectations or lack there of within the supporter base and or the recent history of lack of success feed back and infect the psyche within the playing group and club.

The players last year did also talk about riding the wave of support that embraced the club come finals time and in some ways I wounder if that contributed to us playing too many players carrying injuries along the way that ended up totally screwing our 2019, where as a club more confident and focused on winning flags would have taken better stock of what finishing 5th meant for the road ahead in finals and wouldn't have thrown the kitchen sink at winning two elimination finals at the expense of the physical well being of so many of those players?

Anyways I know for me personally I've learnt the lesson that winning premierships from the lower rungs of the 8 is a folly and if we are not on track to do that, then not to get too hung up about the season as it plays out win/loss and final position wise.  Also to finish in that top four, it usually means only 5 - 6 losses for the season or only one loss in every 5 - 6 games, so if that's not how we are tracking, then again it's just another development year, perhaps with some additional finals experience added on.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

[Pipefitter 2,168]

If the top 4 remains the same this year I think 5th is our max. Our list isn’t on the same Level as those clubs. We’d really need Petracca and Brayshaw to become elite to come near them. 
 

[old dee 23,872]

12 hours ago, JakovichScissorKick said:

A flag is the only acceptable result.   

Then you have some sad days ahead.