23 hours ago, hemingway said:

"being where the ball's at"

So that is the origin of my U14s coach's favourite put-down: '...it's no good being where the ball ain't!' Kinda sticks in the mind on game day. 

5 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

So we are all assuming that Hogan will kick at least 47 goals for Freo in 2019? From what I've seen around the SM traps he'd be lucky to kick 4.7

A combination of Tmac and Weid with an occasional cameo by Gawn/Preuss will service us just fine. And the i50 ump whinge stat will drop near 100%.

IMO the appearance of Lever, May and Kolo will also see less goals kicked against us.

I don't think that's what people are saying, Moonie.  47 goals is what he kicked for us in 2018, so by him leaving, then that's 47 goals we are losing.  But just because he is taking 47 goals with him, doesn't necessarily mean that he will make use of all of them at his new destination.

21 hours ago, Demon Dude said:

yeah I loved that moment too. plus he has shown its not a one off in the short amount of games he's played so far, he loves to nail a bloke with a tackle, which is great. it does show a real intent, like you say.

Hogans tackling pressure was Watts like most of the time, useless.

I thought it was also funny that the cats players didn't really remonstrate with Weid after he buried Danger in that tackle. you'd think they would try to put the youngster off his game by coming back at him and getting in his face, but they didn't. Weid must have a bit of presence about him out there on the field.

I don't think so, DD.  I think it was more a case of the Geelong players realising that the Weid/Danger moment summed up their night.  They were rooted and they knew it.

Possibly further to that, it also shows that they are a team of individuals at the moment.

Weid doesn't need to have a presence, he just needs to get the job done.  He has the opportunity to really fly under the radar for another 12 months or so, which will be great for him.

Weid is flying so far under the radar he’s not even listed in any Coleman Medal market. I don’t believe he will win it, just curious to see what one of our two main tall forwards was showing. 

A two goal per game average is doable for the Weid, exciting times ahead, especially with the new rules in place. Get the ball in quick from the centre and watch T Mac and Weid showcase their great marking abilities.

21 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

I don't think so, DD.  I think it was more a case of the Geelong players realising that the Weid/Danger moment summed up their night.  They were rooted and they knew it.

Possibly further to that, it also shows that they are a team of individuals at the moment.

Weid doesn't need to have a presence, he just needs to get the job done.  He has the opportunity to really fly under the radar for another 12 months or so, which will be great for him.

well he was probably best on ground that game, so I don't think he was flying under any ones radar that night. and also I would say it is very important for your key forwards to have a presence in games, otherwise they're just another Jack Watts. at 195cms and about a 100kgs, he's not exactly small, and when going hard at the ball and delivering crunching tackles, then I think they're gonna notice he's out there.

1 minute ago, Demon Dude said:

well he was probably best on ground that game, so I don't think he was flying under any ones radar that night. and also I would say it is very important for your key forwards to have a presence in games, otherwise they're just another Jack Watts. at 195cms and about a 100kgs, he's not exactly small, and when going hard at the ball and delivering crunching tackles, then I think they're gonna notice he's out there.

He needs to do it consistently now.  He knows what he's capable of, and he should now have continuity in the seniors, so it should be a great case of planets aligning.

But, until he shows it regularly, he will continue to go under the radar.  Just took at the below post from Dee Zephyr (which was one post above yours)...

8 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Weid is flying so far under the radar he’s not even listed in any Coleman Medal market. I don’t believe he will win it, just curious to see what one of our two main tall forwards was showing. 

A two goal per game average is doable for the Weid, exciting times ahead, especially with the new rules in place. Get the ball in quick from the centre and watch T Mac and Weid showcase their great marking abilities.

I'm also in the camp that doesn't think he will win it, but surely as a key forward, and especially as he will be our number 2 KF (behind TMc), he should be in the market somewhere.

That said, if he can start the year like he played in the finals series, he will be well on the radar after about Round 5 or 6.

 

1 hour ago, The Chazz said:

I don't think that's what people are saying, Moonie.  47 goals is what he kicked for us in 2018, so by him leaving, then that's 47 goals we are losing.  But just because he is taking 47 goals with him, doesn't necessarily mean that he will make use of all of them at his new destination.

That defies logic! How does he take 47 goals with him? Are we playing with less players? If we are playing with a replacement player I presume they will help in the goal tally. Do Fremantle have as many forward entries that he enjoyed at Melbourne? 

It is ridiculous to say we are losing 47 goals. We are losing a player that kicked 47 goals but we may kick more without him. Does that mean he left goals behind? 

Just give up the notion that we are losing Hogan therefore we lose all those goals. Think of poor Hawthorn when Buddy left, think of the goals he took with him, oh wait a minute didn't they win a flag without him, how was that possible?

 

Edit: 2013 Franklin kicked 60 goals for Hawthorn - without Franklin Hawthorn won the flag in 2014 & 2015

Edited January 23, 20196 yr by ManDee

so because he's not in the market for the coleman it means he has no presence out on the field. ok then...

2 minutes ago, Demon Dude said:

so because he's not in the market for the coleman it means he has no presence out on the field. ok then...

Let's not forget you were the one that thought because the Geelong players didn't remonstrate with Weid after the Danger dumping = he has a presence.

You talk about presence on field for a KPF, Hogan had/has it, Franklin has it, Ben Brown has it, both Jack and Nick Riewoldt have/had it.

Weid doesn't...yet.

Ok then?

4 minutes ago, Demon Dude said:

so because he's not in the market for the coleman it means he has no presence out on the field. ok then...

post hoc ergo propter hoc! 

6 minutes ago, ManDee said:

That defies logic! How does he take 47 goals with him? Are we playing with less players? If we are playing with a replacement player I presume they will help in the goal tally. Do Fremantle have as many forward entries that he enjoyed at Melbourne? 

It is ridiculous to say we are losing 47 goals. We are losing a player that kicked 47 goals but we may kick more without him. Does that mean he left goals behind? 

Just give up the notion that we are losing Hogan therefore we lose all those goals. Think of poor Hawthorn when Buddy left, think of the goals he took with him, oh wait a minute didn't they win a flag without him, how was that possible?

I think you will find the point being with Hogan gone, that some, myself included, are looking to see where the 47 goals could or would come from.  With Weed playing more games, then naturally you would hope/expect that a bulk amount of those goals would come from him.

From what I can see, the argument is wether or not Weid could provide the same output as what Hogan has.  I think he might just struggle this year, so if he can kick 30 (for example), then we're going to be short of what Hogan would've brought us, so we need to find other avenues.

The Buddy comparison is great, and thanks for bringing it up.  Hawthorn needed to find different avenues to cover the loss of Franklin.  They did it successfully, which is the point we are trying to discuss on here.

I can smell what the WEEEEEDs cookin'.
And it's gonna be tasty.
 

Edited January 23, 20196 yr by Fork 'em

On the Franklin comparison:

Hawthorn 2013 Franklin kicks 60 goals club 414 goals -2014 No Franklin club kicks 418 = minus Franklin's 60 but +4 goals!

Sydney 2013 no Franklin 363 goals add Franklin 79 goals for 2014 club drops to 351 for the season. =  add Franklins 79 but club -12

We are not minus 47 goals!

Edited January 23, 20196 yr by ManDee
insert 2014

26 minutes ago, ManDee said:

post hoc ergo propter hoc! 

I love it when you talk dirty in a foreign language Mandy!

58 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Weid is flying so far under the radar he’s not even listed in any Coleman Medal market. I don’t believe he will win it, just curious to see what one of our two main tall forwards was showing. 

A two goal per game average is doable for the Weid, exciting times ahead, especially with the new rules in place. Get the ball in quick from the centre and watch T Mac and Weid showcase their great marking abilities.

lovin the enthuiasm and support for the Weed but he kicked 10 goals last year (from 10 games) and 16 in his whole career.  I think the Coleman is safe for 2019.

a season of playing 20+ games and kicking 25-30 goals, plenty of marks and hitouts would be a great step forward for him 

19 minutes ago, ManDee said:

On the Franklin comparison:

Hawthorn 2013 Franklin kicks 60 goals club 414 goals -2014 No Franklin club kicks 418 = minus Franklin's 60 but +4 goals!

Sydney 2013 no Franklin 363 goals add Franklin 79 goals for 2014 club drops to 351 for the season. =  add Franklins 79 but club -12

We are not minus 47 goals!

So clearly the Hawks managed to find a way to cover Franklin's loss, as well as increasing their total goals scored.  Isn't that what we are discussing - the level in which Weid can cover the loss of Hogan, as well as where our further improvement will come from?

How did Hawthorn do it?  Did their KPFs kick more?  Did the small forwards?  Midfielders?

We won't know the level of success of both (Weid's contribution and the team as a whole) until the end of the 2019 season.  But it's good to be proactive about it now, rather than scratching our heads at the end of the season wondering why we didn't cover the loss of Hogan better.

21 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

So clearly the Hawks managed to find a way to cover Franklin's loss, as well as increasing their total goals scored.  Isn't that what we are discussing - the level in which Weid can cover the loss of Hogan, as well as where our further improvement will come from?

How did Hawthorn do it?  Did their KPFs kick more?  Did the small forwards?  Midfielders?

We won't know the level of success of both (Weid's contribution and the team as a whole) until the end of the 2019 season.  But it's good to be proactive about it now, rather than scratching our heads at the end of the season wondering why we didn't cover the loss of Hogan better.

You think the club haven't been planning this for quite some time? The club would have contingency plans for all sorts of occurrences, injuries, loss of form, improved form etc. Maybe some supporters are scratching their heads but I really believe this has been in the planning for quite a while. Weid is only part of the solution, May is also. I believe that we will be a better side in 2019.

The idea of losing 47 goals with Hogan going is obviously a pretty abstract one. The key question is not the number of goals but the number of wins.

I hope we avoid revising history, particularly in light of Hogan's partying presence on social media. The fact is Hogan was a terrific player for the demons and was a key element of our successful 2017 and 2018 seasons. We will miss way more than 47 goals - his gut running to provide an outlet pass from the back line for one thing. The fact that he took the best defender another. 

It is easy to forget Weid was dropped twice (i think, or at least once) and could not break into the side until near the end of the year. Also easy to forget he has only played 20 games.

That said i am super confident Weid will take the next step and be a key player for us this year. He brings different things to the table, one of which is think he is better as bringing the ball to the ground than Hoges as he really launches at packs, whereas Hogan seems to prefer wrestling on on one. This suits our style of chaos balls inside 50 i reckon as it brings our small to medium size forwards into play.

His height is also a worry for opposition coaches, hard to match up on. 

And he is better kick for goals than Hogan - and importantly a much longer kick which increases the danger zone for opposition defensive units.

Edited January 23, 20196 yr by binman

From footywire

Comparison at the same age, note Hogan had played twice as many games.

Player Statistics Comparison

Jesse Hogan Name Sam Weideman Fremantle Dockers Team Melbourne Demons Forward Position Forward 71 Career Games 20 Claremont Origin Eastern Ranges February 12, 1995 Date of Birth June 26, 1997 Turned 21 in 2016 Age 21yr 6mth 195cm Height 195cm 100kg Weight 97kg 2012 Mini Draft Last Drafted In 2015 National Draft Round 1, Pick #2 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #9 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Melbourne Demons 2016 Stats for Season 2018 21 Games 10 9.8 Kicks Per Game 5.7 5.0 Handballs Per Game 5.8 14.8 Disposals Per Game 11.5 7.1 Marks Per Game 4.0 1.9 Goals Per Game 1.0 1.6 Behinds Per Game 0.5 1.4 Tackles Per Game 2.4 0.2 Hitouts Per Game 3.4

 

9 minutes ago, ManDee said:

You think the club haven't been planning this for quite some time? The club would have contingency plans for all sorts of occurrences, injuries, loss of form, improved form etc. Maybe some supporters are scratching their heads but I really believe this has been in the planning for quite a while. Weid is only part of the solution, May is also. I believe that we will be a better side in 2019.

Bloody hell these types of posts give me the sh!ts.  Of course the club would have plans in place.  Not once have I implied otherwise.

We (the ones on this forum) are discussing ideas, as we are clearly no privy to what the club's plans are.  One discussion point is about peoples (again, posters on here) thoughts about their expectations of Weid for 2019.

I really don't know how many times I have to explain to you what most of this thread is about.  For the sake of this thread, I'd suggest you send a PM to me if you don't understand something that I've said, rather than flooding this thread with rubbish or twisted words.

2 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

Bloody hell these types of posts give me the sh!ts.  Of course the club would have plans in place.  Not once have I implied otherwise.

We (the ones on this forum) are discussing ideas, as we are clearly no privy to what the club's plans are.  One discussion point is about peoples (again, posters on here) thoughts about their expectations of Weid for 2019.

I really don't know how many times I have to explain to you what most of this thread is about.  For the sake of this thread, I'd suggest you send a PM to me if you don't understand something that I've said, rather than flooding this thread with rubbish or twisted words.

Chazz who do you think you are saying that you alone understand a thread and need to explain it to me? I have as much right as you to voice an opinion here, if you don't like it that's fine by me but don't get your knickers in a knot. 

The “replacing Hogan’s 47 goals” debate, needs to be broadened out to appreciate the genius of it, and how we’ll do much better than break even on the 47 goal “loss”. 

Losing Hogan allowed the perfect replacement in Weid to step up at the ideal time (with a great return), and allowed us to recruit May. So how to measure... 

Weid late last year averaged almost 2 goals a game versus serious opposition. So we can assume 2 goal average in 2019 Or approx 40 goals over 22+ games. 

PLUS

May is an experienced key defender who should be able to be counted on to reduce by a further 1 goal per game, the goals against, than the MFC player he’s replacing in the 22. So there’s another 22+ goals

my guess is for Hogan’s 47 we’re looking at a return of 60+ so a profit (gain on the competition) of 20 so goals..!

Tres good

2 hours ago, The Chazz said:

I don't think so, DD.  I think it was more a case of the Geelong players realising that the Weid/Danger moment summed up their night.  They were rooted and they knew it.

Possibly further to that, it also shows that they are a team of individuals at the moment.

Weid doesn't need to have a presence, he just needs to get the job done.  He has the opportunity to really fly under the radar for another 12 months or so, which will be great for him.

Yeah, sat right behind Brownless in the Ponsford Stand - with a bunch of his mates - and he hardly looked at the game after quarter time, just shook his head in disbelief, in between depressed comments and awe at the Dees' game. Great game....Weed was very good.

 

3 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Agree strongly with both MD and yourself; it is encouraging that - even if only in a couple of finals games - the Weed has started to make a difference but defensive skills in that extreme forward role will be critical to a really positive outcome. The Weed has had a few years to make the grade, or to ready himself for the grade, the role/s and the expectations which will continue to change and require minor adjustments as his game deepens and improves. I, too, reckon that we will again be the highest scoring team (kick the most goals) in 2019 and the big Preusse, the Melk and TMac are keys to this, supported by but freeing/releasing the Weed, Hannan and maybe ANB to run riot. Quite a few other forwards will have more opportunities due to the strengthening of our backline and potential penetration from that source, and the midfielders, in their tandem roles, will enjoy picnics on the rug in the shade of the two tall/mobile ends of the ground. Gus, Clarrie, KK and Hunt/Harmes are in my focus, already. 

It's gunna be tough, to keep ones place in the team.   Depth has really increased... and you mention Melksham.  I think he and Spargo will keep Jeffy out of the team.

55 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Chazz who do you think you are saying that you alone understand a thread and need to explain it to me? I have as much right as you to voice an opinion here, if you don't like it that's fine by me but don't get your knickers in a knot. 

Who do I think I am?  I'm the bloke you're misquoting.  I have every right to correct you and steer you on the right path even if you're too ignorant to follow it.