A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 minutes ago, Macca said:

We're about to find out how good 'Whispering Brook' is too ... but it's a crack field with any number of winning chances.  Last year they dawdled up front and then Hartnell won in a blanket finish.

There is a bit of early speed this time so hopefully we'll see a truly run race ... I've got a F4 going in the race but I reckon Redkirk Warrior gets into the finish. 

Yeah its a tough race and stayed away from it for my bb for that reason. Brave Smash can run a race to when he wants to.

[Macca 16,173]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah its a tough race and stayed away from it for my bb for that reason. Brave Smash can run a race to when he wants to.

A boilover - 'Manuel' wins after leading all the way.  Against that field?  Wow!  Whooda thunk-it?

I reckon I did a 'KB' ... 2nd,  3rd,  4th,  5th,  6th (and probably 7th!)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

A boilover - 'Manuel' wins after leading all the way.  Against that field?  Wow!  Whooda thunk-it?

I reckon I did a 'KB' ... 2nd,  3rd,  4th,  5th,  6th (and probably 7th!)

Land of Plenty and Kementari ran very well i thought Macca. Would have won any other race.

Trifecta only paid 350.....thought would be more with a 21/1 winner

EDIT: Dead heat for second so 2 tris

Edited February 9, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Land of Plenty and Kementari ran very well i thought Macca. Would have won any other race.

Trifecta only paid 350.....thought would be more with a 21/1 winner

2 dividends though Wadda - dead-heat for 2nd.  600+ all up.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

6 minutes ago, Macca said:

2 dividends though Wadda - dead-heat for 2nd.  600+ all up.

Yeah 600+ about right

41 days till the footy....just sayin.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

7 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

41 days till the footy....just sayin.

Yeah but it's only 2 weeks until AFLX ... just joking! ?

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 of those 15 horses in the CF Orr have nominated for the All Star.

I have a suggestion. We have talked about black book etc. Maybe at the end of the day we can put a few in a box and note the top runs from the day, whos ready to win etc. After hearing the jockeys interviewed on Racing.com after that race there were comments like get him back to Randwick as soon as possible, ready to win his next race etc etc.

Thoughts?

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

12 of those 15 horses in the CF Orr have nominated for the All Star.

I have a suggestion. We have talked about black book etc. Maybe at the end of the day we can put a few in a box and note the top runs from the day, whos ready to win etc. After hearing the jockeys interviewed on Racing.com after that race there were comments like get him back to Randwick as soon as possible, ready to win his next race etc etc.

Thoughts?

Might be easier for each of us to nominate a blackbooker whenever applicable and then we can keep a tally along with the strike rate ... but I'm in favour of being quite circumspect with the picks otherwise we'll end up with hundreds of horses. 

So far today my standout performer is 'I am Immortal' ... Manuel was great but can it do it again?  'Crack the Code' as well as it now a Group winner.  Nominate & vote?

[Macca 16,173]

            Best Bet Strike Rate

                84: 33 - 13 - 12

Australian Group & Listed Races

[Macca 16,173]

5 winners for JJ today ... got the winner in the lucky last thanks to James.  5 from 8 is good tipping by any measure with 2 of the 5 offering good value. 

[Macca 16,173]

'Hawkshot' ran a second quicker in the Autumn Stakes in comparison to 'Manuel' in the Orr Stakes.  That equates to about 5 lengths.  So,  even though it didn't look like Manuel slowed them up,  in effect,  that's what happened.  The horse had a decent kick because it had been cruising up front. 

Smart tactics by Luke Currie and the connections of Manuel but you have to wonder about the tactics of the backmarkers in such a big race. 

Just an opinion but 01:24.47 is just too slow for a G1 over 1400m.  Not enough early speed or speed on settling down sets things up for the frontrunners.  

They dawdled in the Caulfield Cup last year until the jockey on Best Solution went for broke at the 3 furlong pole.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

16 hours ago, Macca said:

Might be easier for each of us to nominate a blackbooker whenever applicable and then we can keep a tally along with the strike rate ... but I'm in favour of being quite circumspect with the picks otherwise we'll end up with hundreds of horses. 

So far today my standout performer is 'I am Immortal' ... Manuel was great but can it do it again?  'Crack the Code' as well as it now a Group winner.  Nominate & vote?

Sure if you like. Doesnt have to be an official thing i guess, but sometimes you remember better next time. For instance look at Kementari. Hasnt won for a long time, so his odds will be ok, but that was a super run and there was a bit of a whisper around earlier in the week after a good trial. The jockey mentioned, " hes flying and ready to win and will only improve on that run. Get him back to Randwick as soon as possible."

That just made me think, might be worth us wrapping up the day, if anyone feels like it, then we can go back and check what we wrote perhaps from a few weeks back. Yes theres hundreds of horses and we will never cover all of them, but a few notes here and there never go astray. Pretty much just like you wrote about Manuel. I never noticed the times and will therefore be extra weary when he runs next. The others however now look pretty good on that information. Your stats are top stuff Macca. Only if people are in the mood and feel like it of course......mostly i wanna forget about it as soon as the last race is over, like yesterday! Felt bad  i let the team down with my pick. But even in hindsight, there wasnt much else i liked. Nature Strip was the obvious choice, but those odds are just prohibitive.

Well done on everyones picks.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

15 hours ago, Macca said:

5 winners for JJ today ... got the winner in the lucky last thanks to James.  5 from 8 is good tipping by any measure with 2 of the 5 offering good value. 

Thats really incredible, and it should have been 6.

[Dee Zephyr 17,452]

I’m happy to continue with BBs, not sure how many blackbookers I can find unless I find time to watch a heap of replays. Was tuning on and off yesterday. 

Saturdays will be hectic from now on, I was all at sea yesterday with the wife looking for some day release. 

Happy to keep reading any info provided by members on here.

[Macca 16,173]

We've got any number of excellent sprinter/milers running around so I reckon Kementari is one of a whole bunch of those types that can get into the finish in those types of races on any given day.  In real terms,  it's a bit of a lottery. 

Winx is the exception of course and I reckon she would mostly dominate even at 1200m ... but those sprints often throw up skewed results so she'd lose occasionally because of barrier draw or track conditions.  And for the mere mortals,  that's always a factor,  in any race.   

So don't feel bad @Wadda We Sing  ... to me the best bets are only a guide.  For instance,  I used our 3 tips in 3 different types of exotic bets because I'm really only looking to get the picks 'Into the finish'  (being an exotic punter) ... had a multi with the 3 picks but my stake was a negligible amount.  So no loss.  

In the recent past I've won with my tips running 2nd or 3rd because I'm an exotic punter.  Tom Melbourne has helped me win a few decent trifectas so I have nothing against good old Tom either.

And the positive for all of us is that the horse that beat 'Social Spin' in 'Hawkshot' is an emerging 3yo star.  I'm one to always give credit to the winner even if it beats my horse.  We lay our stake and if we lose that's on us ... all factors need to be taken into account including a horse not getting a run.  That's racing. 

Social Spin did it's best but the winner looks like it is just a superior horse (so far)  I picked up a small percentage of the F4 in the race and would have still got it if Social Spin had have got into the F4. 

That's the main reason I rely on JJ & Gator to find me some winners (and both of them are very good) ... I'm reasonably good at the exotics because it involves multiple choices.  Straight out punting is not for me.  Nor are quaddies.  With Avilius,  James Cummings wanted to 'declare it' and he may as well have to my ears.  Class prevailed - emphatically.  That will be my pattern with the best bet - primarily. 

 

Footnote:  Gator tipped Dealmaker in the Social Spin race but I reckon he might mark 'Hawkshot' on top in the Australian Guineas (March 2nd ... 3 weeks time)  And if he does,  I'm getting on.  Positive reinforcement.

Tipsters have patterns.  JJ went off 'Domination' yesterday because the horse has let him down a couple of times previously - it won and you could tell he was filthy!  That's racing.  Still,  he picked 5 other winners. 

 

[Macca 16,173]

Ok,  here are my standout performers from yesterday ...

            Warwick Farm (keep in mind the track was rated as a Heavy8)

• Fiesta & Estijaab - streets ahead of the rest in a race run in a very very good time.
• Champagne Cuddles very impressive - it's a good horse.

            Caulfield (track a Good4 but the track did cut up so more like a slow5 towards the end of the day)

• 'Crack the Code' is worth following especially over the 1200m against her own gender.
• 'Nature Strip' is an absolute star - only query is the 1200m too far?
• 'I am Immortal' looks the goods - a real fighter and the Blue Diamond is well and truly in its sights.
• Both 2yo fillies 'Lyre' & 'Vinicunca' have emerged as genuine chances for the Diamond.
• 'Hawkshot' is another emerging type and the Australian Guineas is his for the taking.
• The Orr Stakes didn't tell us a lot - the race was not a truly run affair.
• 'Avilius' is a class performer - a blackbooker without question.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

8 hours ago, Macca said:

Ok,  here are my standout performers from yesterday ...

            Warwick Farm (keep in mind the track was rated as a Heavy8)

• Fiesta & Estijaab - streets ahead of the rest in a race run in a very very good time.
• Champagne Cuddles very impressive - it's a good horse.

            Caulfield (track a Good4 but the track did cut up so more like a slow5 towards the end of the day)

• 'Crack the Code' is worth following especially over the 1200m against her own gender.
• 'Nature Strip' is an absolute star - only query is the 1200m too far?
• 'I am Immortal' looks the goods - a real fighter and the Blue Diamond is well and truly in its sights.
• Both 2yo fillies 'Lyre' & 'Vinicunca' have emerged as genuine chances for the Diamond.
• 'Hawkshot' is another emerging type and the Australian Guineas is his for the taking.
• The Orr Stakes didn't tell us a lot - the race was not a truly run affair.
• 'Avilius' is a class performer - a blackbooker without question.

Thanks  Macca, brilliantly summed up. Not much i can add to that.

Kieran Maher now has a lot of very good horses. (watch out when the blinkers go back on)

Land of Plenty was a great run.

 

Edited February 10, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 2/10/2019 at 1:59 PM, Macca said:

Ok,  here are my standout performers from yesterday ...

            Warwick Farm (keep in mind the track was rated as a Heavy8)

• Fiesta & Estijaab - streets ahead of the rest in a race run in a very very good time.
• Champagne Cuddles very impressive - it's a good horse.

            Caulfield (track a Good4 but the track did cut up so more like a slow5 towards the end of the day)

• 'Crack the Code' is worth following especially over the 1200m against her own gender.
• 'Nature Strip' is an absolute star - only query is the 1200m too far?
• 'I am Immortal' looks the goods - a real fighter and the Blue Diamond is well and truly in its sights.
• Both 2yo fillies 'Lyre' & 'Vinicunca' have emerged as genuine chances for the Diamond.
• 'Hawkshot' is another emerging type and the Australian Guineas is his for the taking.
• The Orr Stakes didn't tell us a lot - the race was not a truly run affair.
• 'Avilius' is a class performer - a blackbooker without question.

Just on Racing.com they are playing some history of the CF Orr stakes. Manikato, Black Caviar (only time she ever ran over 1400) won by 6 lengths, Lohnro (sire of Kementari) and Vo Rogue. Some big names there.

Black Caviars win was the best though.

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Just on Racing.com they are playing some history of the CF Orr stakes. Manikato, Black Caviar (only time she ever ran over 1400) won by 6 lengths, Lohnro (sire of Kementari) and Vo Rogue. Some big names there.

Black Caviars win was the best though.

The Orr Stakes was a better race when it was at Sandown ... the big uphill straight brought the stayers into the race.  Now a number of the stayers steer clear and those stayers that do run often get caught too far back at Caulfield. 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

12 hours ago, Macca said:

The Orr Stakes was a better race when it was at Sandown ... the big uphill straight brought the stayers into the race.  Now a number of the stayers steer clear and those stayers that do run often get caught too far back at Caulfield. 

 

Well yes very true Macca. In fact we have almost the same race with the same field in 2 weeks time back at Caulfield in the All Star Stakes over 1400m.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

With all the talk surrounding Racheal Griffiths up coming film and the Darren Weir saga, i thought id post one of the best racing films of all time......Click on the link to find out!

 

https://ok.ru/video/333308365475

Edited February 13, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Perhaps we can have some new names. Macca can be Groucho, Dz can be Chiko and im Harpo.

 

[Macca 16,173]

22 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Perhaps we can have some new names. Macca can be Groucho, Dz can be Chiko and im Harpo.

 

You're the resident comedian so you should be Groucho,  I'm a bit of a motor mouth so I can't be harpo so Deeza plays the harp.  I guess that makes me Chico

"Get your tootsie frootsie icecream"

 

[Macca 16,173]

Best Bet

Randwick Race 4 No.2 Don't Give a Damn $3.80

An old favourite ... our very first best bet (it won)  It's first up form is 3 from 3 and McEvoy is on board.  Drawn perfectly too.  Looks well placed.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Looks like another hard day at the track. I like the sentimental nostalgic fav Macca. Lets hope it can salute.

Im also going for another Day at the Races favourite that has saluted a few times for us. The shorter distance is a slight query, but hes also 3 from 3 first up and only missed a place once in 14 starts.

Best Bet:

Flemington Race 8 No 1 Osborne Bulls $6.50